저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman은 6~9개월 내 우크라이나·중동(이란) 지정학 리스크 해소 가능성을 낙관하며, 인플레이션은 대부분 빠졌고 에너지 가격도 하락세가 유지될 것으로 봄. 관세는 일회성 물가 재조정에 그칠 것이며, 연준은 연말까지 소폭 인하 가능. 중국 관세는 145%가 과도하므로 180일 일시 중단 후 협상 유도가 바람직하다고 주장. 1분기 선행 구매 이후 2분기 경기 둔화 예상.
다듬은 글
Um let me ask you a separate question just about the economy and where we are. I was at a dinner at this Milkin uh event last night and uh the question was put to the group to raise our hands. This is maybe hundred some odd people uh who's optimistic about the economy over the next 6 months. Mhm. And when that was the question when I tell you I think there was maybe one or two hands that went up that was it.
If you asked the question again for a year a couple of hands. If you asked again for maybe two years or three years then more hands. When would you have raised your hand? So let me be optimistic for a moment. Um what do I expect over the next 6 months? I expect that the war in Ukraine, Russia has a pretty high probability of being resolved.
I think there's some kind of resolution in the Middle East uh with Iran. either a deal or Israel and the United States take out their capability of producing uh nuclear weapons. You do that would be by the way a very big deal very big deal whether it's I mean 6 months 6 months nine months you know potentially by the end of the year I think those are well within the realm of possibility I don't think we're going to wait around a lot longer to deal with Iran it's got to get be dealt with in in one way or another that's going to bring down geopolitical risk in my view and a very significant way could also increase risk if it doesn't go right could I'm being an optimist okay okay and I I do think uh I think Putin would like to end the war I think Zilinsky would like to end the war I think Israel would like to deal with the nuclear threat.
I think the entire world would like to deal with Iran's nuclear threat. So, I think that's obviously a big positive. Um I think inflation's largely been rung out of the economy, right? Price of eggs. I think the price of uh energy is coming down and it's going to stay down. Uh and I think um you know, obviously very very good for the economy, you know.
Um what else can I say? Uh well, how do you think about tariffs impacting potentially inflation? So uh I think tar tariffs if they where they ultimately get resolved will increase the cost of some you know by a percent of some uh products uh and but it's not like uh inflation that will compound. It's more like a one-time reset and then we'll we won't have meaningful inflation from there.
And I think that's a backdrop in which the Federal Reserve toward the end of the year could start uh you could have a few kind of rate cuts. Do you think they should be cutting already? Um I think a small cut relatively soon I think makes sense because I think what's happened is uh you know we've we've Q1's benefited by some frontloading of purchases in event of tariffs.
The uncertainty associated with uh you know liberation day so to speak um is caused many businesses to pause and wait to see what's going to happen and that's going to be reflected uh in Q2. Um and uh so I think you could you know there's definitely a deceleration economy you know now. Absolutely. So the question I think what's important is the tariffs get resolved in the relative short term.
Uh because I do believe if we're still dealing if the tariff thing is still major headlines. Uh let me ask you a tariff question then I know Joe's got a question about Harvard that he wants to ask. Sure. But on the tariff front. Sure. When you say gets resolved what does resolved mean? Meaning, do you believe that the US government is going to be collecting lots of revenue because we're going to have big tariffs?
Are we blinking and saying, "Actually, we're not going to have the kind of tariffs we've been talking about all along, and therefore the market likes that." And that actually is a version of resolved. What are we talking about when people say resolved? I would say Trump has gotten the world's attention on trade imbalances and unfair trading practices of our partners.
That's what happens when you announce 145% uh tariff against China and tariffs really very high tariffs against the rest of the world. Uh after achieving that he said okay we're going to pause for 90 days on basically everyone other than China because China responded so we're going to punish them in in effect.
Um that set up the opportunity for deals with our major trading partners. You know Scott Bassen says look we've got 18 countries the top 18 uh European Union etc. We're working out we're working out deals. We need to do the same thing with China. Um my argument is uh made the point with China. Um but 145% tariff against China means we're ceasing doing business with China.
That has very negative repercussions for China, even more negative for China than us. But it also has meaningfully negative repercussions for us, you know, starting with small businesses, stick with me for a second, and others. The right thing to do in my view is we pause on China. Let's give it a little more time.
Maybe it's 180 days because you know we got we got we're going to be busy here. What that does is it stabilizes the risk to the US economy and you know small businesses around the country. But China is now highly incentivized to make a deal. Why? Because because of the shock of 145% of the potential for high tariffs against China.
Every uh company that's producing in China and selling into the US is moving their supply chains elsewhere. The longer the tariffs uh persist and unfair trading practices persist against China, the longer they take to make a deal, the greater the risk to China is they lose all those businesses. And so the dynamic now is not, in my view, ideally favorable for the US because there's economic pressure on the US as a result of China tariffs.
You pause for 180 days, the economic pressure comes off us, but it persists on China because of everyone leaving. And and I think I'd like for us to get to that dynamic as quickly as possible. Buffett doesn't like the the tariffs, but we can we can talk about
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