Palantir going to a $1 trillion market cap in next 2-3 years, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

요약 보기

CNBC 대담에서 Dan Ives는 팔란티어가 AI 수요와 실적(매출·가이던스 상향) 덕분에 2~3년 내 1조 달러 시가총액에 도달할 것이라고 주장. 밸류에이션 우려는 과거 기술주 사례를 근거로 반박. Brent Bill(Jefferies 등 반대 측)은 기초체력은 인정하나 매출 대비 65배 등 멀티플이 지속된 소프트웨어주가 없다며 비중 축소 입장. 기관보다 리테일이 주도하는 상황이라는 점도 쟁점.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Well, joining us now is Jeffrey's Brent Th and Webb Bush's Dan Ies with opposing ratings on the stock. Brent hasn't underperformed and Dan hasn't outperformed. So, this is a good oldfashioned bull bear discussion here. Dan, you're on set. I'm going to start this conversation with you. Your reaction to the commentary from Karp who basically said to me, look, macro uncertainty.

02. If you can deliver value in this market, people are still going to spend, companies are still going to spend, governments are still going to spend. And they're seeing that in the results. I mean, look at those numbers. I think you could print this press release off, frame it and put it in the Lou because if you look at the numbers, you look at commercial.

03. You look what in terms of AI, they are leading when it comes to AI revolution. The software numbers are shown even on the government side and look if you look at the bears, they hate it at 30, despise it at 50, absolutely say it's expensive at 100, 125. Look, I believe this is going to a trillion dollar market cap in the next two to three years.

04. these numbers just show. I think it's get the popcorn out. It's still in the early days of playing out. Brent, want to get your thoughts on this, especially since you have a price target that is marketkedly lower than where the stock is trading right now. Basically half of where it's trading right now and Dan's price targets lower than his bullish view.

05. That's true. So, uh, look, I think when you think about the fundamentals are alive, right? They beat by 24 million. They raised the guidance by six times the beat. We're not arguing the fundamentals. They are fully alive. The the question becomes there's not a single software stock that we've ever covered that trades at this multiple and sustained it.

06. Snowflake, data, data dog, you go through the list. So, it's it's largely just history and valuation lessons which haven't worked uh for any of these names. And so, we watched Snowflake go to 50 times revenue and then went to eight times revenue. And so, Palanteer is in a different league. There's no question the fundamentals are are delivering.

07. It's just the question what is is the stock worth? And our job is to find names where we don't feel like there's downward pressure on multiples. There's upward pressure. So Microsoft, Apple, and there's a handful of other names that Jeffre covers that we're recommending that we just feel are great franchises and and have better durability at multiples that aren't aren't at 65 times revenue.

08. There's there's not a single tech name that's ever sustained that multiple. Dan, I I hear I hear what Brent is saying, but in a world where Nvidia and Tesla have done what they've done recently, does history have that much bearing if you believe as you seem to that Palunteer is generational opportunity.

09. Well, I think but look, I mean the value if you go back the last few years, right? I mean they hated it at 10, despised it 100 and that would be the continued argument on valuation. If you look what's happened to AI revolution, two trillion of spend over the next three years on the software side, it's their world.

10. Everyone else paying rent and comes pounder. So my view is if you look at it just on valuation and if you went back, you've missed every transformational tech stock last 20 years. If you just focus on valuation, where is this in the next two, three, four, five years? And I view what carp's doing at Palanteer is generational.

11. But again, the haters are going to hate. I get it. valuation, check the box. You look at these numbers, I just to me, I think this is just another sort of table pounder moment, you know, for what I view as the messy of AI, Palunteer. So Brent, what breaks Palunteer then and the amazing run that it's been having?

12. Is it overall sentiment? And if it's an overall sentiment issue, how many other things have to break at the same time? Uh, I I I I think ultimately you hit a point which you've hit on the multiple. I mean, look at the numbers and the stocks down 5% in the after hours. There's some break point where, you know, investors, this has been fueled by retail.

13. There's not a single institutional investor I talked to that even talks about the snake and that's part of the problem. It's a retail driven story and it's not being driven by institutions. Our investor base is institutions. And so, the reason why I spend such little time is no one can make sense of the multiple.

14. And so I spend my time on things that have multiple support. So again, I I'm a huge fan of the fundamentals. I'm not going to argue. And I think Dan's had a great call. Uh so so kudos to him. And you know, no, no one's going to take that away. It's just my my views. I think there are just other stories that we've have more confidence in with with that valuation support.

15. D respond to this. I think Brett brings a really important point because retail has been way ahead institutional and Palanteer. and Palanteer again they they continue to hate it and they'll continue to hate it when I believe it's up another 40 50 60%. Part of the problem here is that institutional they just they painted with a certain brush.

16. They have a certain negative view and I agree with what Brent's saying. I think institutional has been way wrong on this. Retail has been right. But I do believe institutional eventually just given you know from a waiting perspective you can't just continue to hate what I view is going to be a trillion dollar market cap.