저자: BeRich진행자/출연패널Anand · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 한국 무역딜 난항과 지정학 긴장 속 Fed 데이터 공백으로 금리 경로가 불확실하다고 진단. 빌 애크먼의 Howard Hughes 지분 확대, 폐쇄형 펀드 청산 및 IPO 추진 소식을 다루며 그의 투자 스타일은 버핏과 다르다고 평가. 마이클 배리 펀드 청산과 팔란티어 풋옵션 보유도 언급. 전반적으로 시장 변동성에 주의하라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, welcome back to Be Rich. Hope you had a wonderful weekend and you are cooperated and recharged to get back at it. Over the weekend, a lot of interesting things happened. Of course, Trump is trying to push a new Korean deal through before Thanksgiving and doesn't seem to be happening. Europeans they are very wary of what he's saying.
Which is basically give whatever Russians want and we give them we get nothing back in return. And even Marco Rubio said that is what Putin wants. So uh there seems to be a lot of dissonance in what's happening in the American cabinet itself. So we'll have to wait and watch. What does that mean? There's going to be a lot more tension geopolitically and we'll have to wade through that water as things unfold.
As far as the Fed is concerned, they still haven't got clear data thanks to the government shutdown. Things are still very foggy for them. So there is no real clarity on what is going to happen with the rates. You have one Fed chair saying one thing, next minute another Fed chair comes and says another thing.
Then you have Vanguard which came out and said the market is pricing in too many rate cuts. Hang on guys, slow down. Don't get so excited. And the Dow of course recovered by end of the week and today as we're recording, the futures of Dow's looks like it's positive. At least by 200 or 300 points. So there's a lot of volatility out there.
Be careful when you're investing. In middle of all this news and swirling, of course we have some very interesting news coming out. I don't know if this is something in the same level as Berkshire Hathaway, but Bill Ackman claims that he is in the same category as Berkshire Hathaway and he plans to go IPO early next year 2026 and this is what I wanted to unpack with Anand.
Is this something that all of us should wake up and sit on or is this something we should be a little more skeptical about is what I wanted to ask him. Cuz Anand knows about Bill Ackman and he knows his investing style. He's an investor of sorts which is very different from Warren Buffett I would say.
So Anand, what about Before that, first I want to give you some news. Mhm. Uh Michael Berry, famous from Big Short. Yes. Okay, this uh physician surgeon turned investor Mhm. who ran Scion Capital Asset Management has decided to wind up his fund. Yes. And he says the market is public market is out of sync with his style of investment and therefore he must quit and has returned all the capital back to people except for a small amount which is retained for audit and tax purpose.
He has also recommended his junior and said people can invest from further. Mhm. Basically, whatever he's going to do is not going to come to the public view. public domain. He becomes a private investor. Having done that, his last position is a big put option in Palantir 2027 January which gives him the right to buy Palantir the famous data services company at an 80% discount to today's market price.
Correct. So basically what he's trying to say is the market is going to correct me. Yes. Okay, this is what it is. On the As far as Michael Berry Michael Berry is concerned. Yeah. Now, your question about Pershing Square. Yes. Pershing Square has had a couple of run-ins with the another big fund manager and also has had a Herbalife Yes, very famous.
and he he had to cut his losses. What he said was true about Herbalife. And the other fund fund manager whom he had a run-in with had some problems and SEC investigated all that. Having said all this, we have to understand who is Bill Ackman. Bill Ackman is a Jew who comes from a very prominent American family.
Very prominent. And he has had a privileged upbringing and using his family name, he interned with the Buffett for some time. Then he started his hedge fund. He runs a closed-ended hedge fund which is listed which has got 19.3 billion dollars. So he's trying to list it. 19.3 billion. billion dollars.
Not million, billion. billion. He tried to create another fund in NYSE trying to raise 26 billion dollars but he raised 22 billion dollars and he pulled the plug. So we do not know whether he is going to convert this into another company Mhm. or whether he is doing another hedge fund and converting Mhm.
this. Mhm. What is the market speculation? He has a company called Howard Hughes Mhm. which is basically the original Playboy company. He has hiked his stake to 47% in that company. The idea is he wants it to invest in real estate and start to own insurance operations. Using that insurance cash flow, he wants to become an investor.
So this is what everybody is saying. He's trying to mirror Buffett. Okay. But Mhm. his investment style so style so far has been activist investor. Yes. Right? Buffett is not an activist investor. No. Buffett never takes on the management. No. The only time he took on the management, he ended up owning the company with Berkshire Hathaway.
Yes. Now, in Berkshire Hathaway, if you go back to history and remember what Buffett did, he wanted to offer the shares back to the management. Yes. The management cheated him on the he felt cheated by the management by about 50 or 60 cents per share. Yeah. So he decided to buy the company and throw out the management.
Yes. Having got the company and having wanted to stop being an active fund manager, he started using this company as a investment vehicle. You understand? Yes. [snorts] Yes, this is history. This is history. It was already a listed company that he bought. Now, if he's going to merge the funds, he is going to liquidate his fund, close the closed-ended fund.
So if he liquidates his closed-ended fund, returns the money to everybody and retains Howard Hughes Mhm. and then Howard Hughes becomes the holding company. Mhm. It's already a listed company. You don't need to do an IPO. Correct. So this this IPO chatter has been going on for some time. Okay. But why will a hedge fund manager need to do an IPO?
That's right. It's something I don't know. Yeah, you and I couldn't agree. So whether he's selling the asset management company, that means hedge fund is a business. Then you are not Yeah. Buffett because Buffett himself has said that a hedge fund is a very poor asset management style today. Very true.
And he said instead you can put it into Vanguard funds. Yes. And there was a long but 301 cases Yes. in which he went on against hedge fund. hedge fund manager and the hedge fund manager wrote a long piece recently in That manager was a friend of his. in Financial Times who says that the market he blamed the market.
Yeah. That is self-attribution bias. Yes. He's basically what he said is if the market conditions had been different, I would have beaten the Yeah. Vanguard index. If I had the bowler bowling at me at my pitch, I would have hit a six. Yeah. But actually what should have been done, Buffett clearly says the fees on the hedge fund is what is the problem all about.
Yes. So last year, the percentage point which you lose lose. Yeah. Last year, his fund has generated 17%. This Pershing Pershing Square. Yeah, Pershing Square. Pershing Square has generated 17%. Is it before the fee, after the fee? I don't know. Mhm. So if he wants to be Buffett as he claims he wants to be, he cannot be in the asset management business.
Buffett is not an asset manager. No. Buffett runs a company which owns businesses and you can become a shareholder of the company and benefit. Yes, his view is very different from this. Yeah. Okay, but he has always been saying I am want to be Warren Buffett. But if he wanted to be Warren Buffett, he would have moved a long time back.
That's right. I guess he's my age about 59. Yes. So he would have become a Warren Buffett long time ago. But I do not know whether he's trying to exit. Whether he's tired of running a hedge fund. I do not know. This is one. Second, he has taken a very firm pro-Jewish pro-Israeli position. Yes. Which may be good for among the Jews, but which means raising capital will become very difficult because the Palestinians seem to have a lot of broad-based support.
Yes. And he went into the time trying to get the Harvard guy fired, the Columbia guy fired. So he took very strong positions on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Yes. In the con- the conflict between Israel and Palestine, he took a very strong stance. Yes. Which will affect his fundraising ability. Correct.
So those are the main things which which I wanted to say. Correct. So there you guys go. This is where Bill Ackman's uh you know, story lies. And this is what I wanted to get you guys to understand. Yes, Warren Buffett has a certain investing style. Bill Ackman has his investment style. They're not the same.
They're not even close to being in the same room. So there's a huge ocean between them. He may wish to be a Warren Buffett and there's nothing wrong in him wanting to be Warren Buffett. Like all of us wish to be Warren Buffett and all of us wish to have his kind of wisdom. So the IPO is something like Anand said, I'm also perplexed about it.
We'll have to wait and watch and see how it unfolds because he has said it's coming out next year. It's not this year. But there's no time anyway left in this year. So keep an eye out and as the news develops and as we find more information in the public realm and we read it and we digest it, we'll definitely come and have a further discussion about it.
So nothing else more to say. Hope you had a wonderful day today and we'll catch you tomorrow with something else more to say. Thank you for being with us on Be Rich. Thank you for supporting Be Rich.
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