저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체 섹터 내 구조적 변화 속 인텔(INTC)과 에버스핀(MRAM) 하락을 분석. 인텔은 CPU 점유율 하락(64%→55%), 파운드리 영업손실 23억 달러 등 우려가 있으나 미국 파운드리 장기 회복 스토리를 근거로 장기 낙관 유지. 에버스핀은 5월 고점 대비 급락했으며 공매도 리포트와 내부자 매도가 원인이나, 우주 환경용 MRAM의 방사선 내성·저전력 특성을 근거로 장기 보유 의견 제시.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back. Today's video we need to talk about a major structural shift happening across the semiconductor sector. Cuz while a handful of high-profile hyperscale stocks continue to push towards their all-time highs, some of those being the memory titans, we are actually seeing some of our core long-term conviction plays ex- experience some significant selling pressure this last week.
And that pressure is causing a ton of retail anxiety and it's causing a ton of questions on the channel as well. Those questions are related to these two stocks. You saw them in the thumbnail. It's Intel and it's Everspin Technologies. Everspin you may know better as MRAM. That's their ticket on the street.
But I've received a ton of questions related to the performance of these stocks and what exactly is happening? Why are they pulling back? Why are we seeing selling pressure versus where we saw these stocks not only in the month of May, but maybe even a few weeks ago. Like why have they Why is the momentum stopped?
So that's what we're going to focus on in today's video. I'm going to dive in and and show you exactly or give you my opinion of why I think these stocks are facing a bit of selling pressure right now. But you have to remember I work hard in this channel to separate the short-term noise from the true signals in the market, the true long-term structural data.
So I'm not just going to react to the immediate panic or anxiety that we saw this past week. Instead, I'm going to dive into the tape and I'm going to look at the specific factors that I believe are causing some selling pressure for these assets. I'm also going to talk about some of the harsh realities or or the execution from the companies and how it's having an impact on the share price.
And then finally, I'm going to give you my long-term outlook, how I'm playing these stocks in my individual portfolio, and how I'm looking at them moving forward. But if you guys n all sincerity, I just want to say thank you. I appreciate each and every one of you for all the support of the channel, all the questions, all the the likes, all of the engagement overall.
It has been an amazing experience. Let's keep this experience going. Let's continue to grow the channel together. So, if you're not part of the community today and you value this content, make sure you just take a second and hit subscribe now. All right, let's get started and talk about our first stock, which will actually be Intel because I think when you look at the tape this week, it is a perfect example or perfect illustration of signal versus noise.
Let me pull that up. We can take a look at actually how Intel performed across the month. But, I have to say first, if you listen to me on this channel, you know that I am openly bullish on the long-term Intel comeback story. I'm openly bullish on the American foundry story overall. But, I also impatient and I realize the fact that shifting domestic manufacturing back here on US soil, it's actually a multi-decade initiative or a multi-decade effort.
But, it is a geopolitical necessity in my opinion for the US. But, we need to be patient and Intel's at the epicenter of that shift back here or that movement for the American foundry. So, for me, I'm giving this stock some patience to work through kind of how they're transforming themselves and their turnaround story.
So, a little pullback this week doesn't change my sentiment or view in the stock at all. And I do think as we look on the screen, we have to acknowledge the fact that that Intel's had a massive month. If you look across the board, we've had a massive May overall from where we started on the left side of the screen to where we ended at 114 at just under 115 a share.
The stock actually has shown massive momentum. It actually has moved up in the month. It's just it finished just under its 52-week high in May 11th. You can see the top of the screen there on May 11th. It actually hit just about 130 a share. So, it's just below the 52-week high of 132 and change. But, remember, Intel's 52-week low was $19 a share.
So, this stock has had massive momentum and a massive kind of growth overall and it's it's just represents the turnaround story for the company in my opinion. So even with the minor pullback to 115 on Friday, we see that we still have massive amounts of shares too. That Look at that on the bottom right-hand corner, 191 million shares.
The market cap for Intel still stands at a commanding 576 billion. So the market is aggressively pricing in their structural pivot. But we do have to be honest, they had a bit of a setback this week. They actually got downgraded by Northland Capital. And you can see on your screen there Northland downgrades Intel based on valuation concerns overall.
So they downgraded them to market perform. They actually suspended their price target overall. And it's based if you look at the headline of the screen on on top of the screen from the article from investing.com. So Intel is actually losing a bit of the race here in the CPU. So as the headline says, Intel's supposed to be in a new CPU era but is losing market share to AMD and ARM.
And if I pull over the next, we can dive into some of the specifics on there. You can see in the Seeking Alpha article, they go through it right below that orange bar. You can see UBS said that the first quarter CPU shipments of ARM and AMD outgrew and continued to gain at the expense of Intel quarter over quarter.
In fact, total CPU shipments increased by 6%. So that's a great That's a great bullish sign for the CPU segment cuz it's significantly over the normal seasonal kind of being down by 7%. But ARM and AMD are benefiting from that growth overall and it's coming at the expense of Intel. If you look down at that second to last line, you can see it says Intel share in the CPU market is at a 54.9 overall.
That's a significant drop. So their CPU market share has collapsed now from over 64% down to 55%. And when you pair that with the staggering 2.3 billion in operating loss from their foundry division. That's driven by poor manufacturing yields on the 18A and 14A nodes. Wall Street is issuing a harsh reality for the stock in my opinion.
And the retail crowd is interpreting it a different way because when they look at this type of manufacturing kind of setback or the the operational loss in that on that foundry side of the business, it reminds Intel of kind of the haunting ghost or reminds retail investors of the haunt the haunting ghost of Intel.
The 10-year nanometer delay, the culture that crippled the company a decade ago. They fear the old habits of over promising and under delivering are still deeply embedded. But you have to understand the physics of semiconductor foundries. And the physics are clear. You have to bleed cash before you can print cash.
This operating loss is simply the upfront price of building a bleeding edge capacity. And under the hood, the capital is finally starting to yield results. Because we know we've seen leadership change in Intel with their new CEO of Lip Bu-Tan came in and he's radically shifting the company and changing the company overall.
The strategy under him, it's actually starting to work. So the 18A yields are showing a consistent 7% month-over-month trajectory improvement. And the 14A risk reduction is locked in for the 2028 timeframe. Intel remains it still remains the only viable western backstop for domestic leading edge lithography.
However, the stock is facing pressure and it's based on the performance of their competitor too. This is another reason in my opinion why it's facing pressure in the market cuz when you look at AMD, AMD has had been on an absolute tear during the month of May. You can see down at the bottom, the stock in one month was up 46%.
It hit an all-time high of 527 a share and the market cap for AMD right now is 842 billion. AMD is executing flawlessly right now in the market. They're executing flawlessly on the software and the accelerator side of the business. I want to show you one more slide on on Intel before we wrap up cuz this to me came across and for me it's a bullish sign.
I'm interested to see how you guys interpret it, but Yahoo Finance put this out and I highlighted in the box below because while retail is panicking over Intel's kind of horizontal grind to the 114 mark, big money and political lawmakers are quietly using this consolidation to accumulate shares of Intel.
Look inside that box right there. It says political stock trends. Republican lawmakers are favoring Intel in their investment strategies with the stock now making up almost 8% of GOP GOP portfolios, marking a significant increase. So to me if we know just how the stocks that have moved that have been a supported by this administration, Dell being one of those examples.
Now they had an outstanding earnings as well, but we know also that they've been heavily supported by the administration. And most stocks that have have been moving in the right direction. So for me this is kind of a bullish sign overall, but what we're seeing in the market, the rift between AMD and Intel right now is real.
AMD is priced for absolute perfection today. Intel on the other hand, they are grinding through the mud right now trying to build a irreplaceable geostrategic manufacturing foundation for tomorrow. I still believe in them overall. My sentiment hasn't changed on Intel. It's a long-term view as I mentioned.
I believe in their comeback story and I still believe in the American foundry and them being at the epicenter of it. So let's shift to the second stock that's been causing a ton of anxiety this week. And that stock is is Everspin. So I'm going to pull up their graphs well. Everspin Technologies MRAM as you know it is the call in the market.
And I want to just just answer ask this question. Hopefully my answer can can solve the riddle, I'll say that a lot of retail traders had this week and a lot of questions I had is that Everspin Technology, why didn't it catch the wave that all the other memory stocks caught last week? We have to look at the tape cuz Everspin has been an absolute high-flying speculative favorite.
It's skyrocketed. Let's not forget, it is skyrocketed from a single-digit base of almost just about $9 in late March all the way up to a 52-week high of $51 and 50 cents. Retail aggressively chased the stock up to its 44 uh its $44 stock price closing there in kind of uh May 12th overall, kind of middle of that week.
It was driven by immense speculative hype around the AI Edge Hofwerk hardware qualification milestones. But, the party paused aggressively this week. We definitely saw Everspin or MRAM pull back violently. There was profit-taking that occurred, and they had a brutal 23% single-day drop to close the month at about 26, just over $26 a share on Friday.
With the market cap compressed to roughly $618 million right now, it still remains a high-beta play where technical indicators are wound tighter than a spring. But, I want to look at some of the structural factors that explain the divergence overall. So, I put this graph together. Let me pull it up cuz I think it just helps us see the key moments in May that caused this stock just pressure overall.
I think right in the beginning of the month, the stock jumped after it was announced that they were rewarded a rewarded, excuse me, a $40 defense contract. And you can see that growth from May 1st all the way up to the high of the month of May 12th where it reached $44 a share. Below the 52-week high, we know, but that was the intra high in the month of May.
After that, in fact, I just think we saw a bit of sell the news overall. You saw profit-taking. You saw some insider selling there on on May 15th, it was about $9 million got liquidated. And then the big catalyst was the short sale. The announcement by Kerrisdale Capital that they are shorting the stock, it caused significant pressure.
Not only on the 19th, but all the way through the end of the month. So, guys, this was no question about it, the biggest catalyst, kind of negative catalyst for the stock in the month of May. Kerrisdale Capital, they issued that highly publicized short report targeting the company, pounding the table on Everspin's elevated price-to-earnings multiple, and pointing directly to the wave of insider selling that was near that $44 peak.
And in in a thin kind of float small-cap equity like Everspin, an institutional short attack, it triggers an immediate automated retail liquidation against the stock. The algorithms don't care how hot the broader semiconductor sector is running. They just see that headline and they dump their shares.
But here is the hard truth that's hurting the stock right now. Let me pull that back up. This is the hard reality in the market right now is that MRAM or Everspin is an edge technology, not an AI data center technology. And that reality is hurting the stock right now because we're seeing hyperscalers in right now in the market, there's massive capital expenditures.
It's flowing from Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and it's going into the data centers that require raw high-density capacity. MRAM cannot compete at that physical scale today. Its architectures are meant for localized embedded computing nodes. This is in my opinion where I think some of the investors are missing They're missing the forest through the trees with this stock overall.
The short sellers right now, they're evaluating it through a legacy terrestrial lens. They are entirely blind to the next multi-decade frontier. And guys, that's all about This is what all about Everspin is and why I like the stock and why I hold it for a long term because the migration of data centers to space.
That's the biggest reason I'm conviction or have conviction for the stock overall, because think about that macro trend. We're seeing the Department of Defense, SpaceX, geo and global aerospace aerospace giants. They're actively deploying distributed orbital mesh networks and cloud compute clusters into low earth orbit.
We are sending actual AI compute nodes into space to process edge data before it ever touches the ground. And out in the harsh environment of space, the terrestrial memory playbook gets completely thrown out the window. Standard DRAM and NAND flash are absolute liabilities in orbit, because they rely on microscopic electrical charges.
A single cosmic ray or high-energy solar radiation event can flip the bits, corrupt critical AI model weights, or physically destroy the chip. The constraint power drain required to keep a standard DRAM constantly refreshed is a luxury aerospace engineers cannot afford. MRAM fundamentally solves this cosmic bottleneck, because it stores data magnetically.
It It possesses inherent military-grade radiation immunity. It requires zero power to hold the data state during during sleep cycles and features instantaneously instantaneous write speeds that protect data from orbital power fluctuations. Sovereign nations and defense contractors aren't looking at MRAM as an alternative.
They are treating it as a non-negotiable foundation for autonomous space infrastructure. So, if you were holding Everspin or MRAM today and watching a 22% haircut from a short report, I know that feels painful. But, separate the short-term noise from the long-term structural signal. Terrestrial hyperscalers, they belong to Micron and the other members of the Fab Four.
But, the second that compute breaks out in the atmosphere, MRAM's architectural moat becomes entirely unri- unrivaled. For long-term investors, the story hasn't even left left the launchpad yet. So, let's bring it all home and talk about uh and just kind of uh circle back in everything we talked about in this video.
Cuz if you're holding Intel or Everspin today and you're watching that 22% haircut or a major analyst upgrade, I know it feels painful and it tests it tests your conviction. But, remember what this channel is all about, separating the short-term operational noise from the long-term structural signals.
Terrestrial hyperscalers belong to Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and and SanDisk. Intel has to grind through the mud of fixing its foundry yields, but its position as the ultimate domestic manufacturing back- backstop remains intact. And for Everspin, like I said, the second that compute fully breaks out of our atmosphere, MRAM's architectural moat becomes entirely unrivaled.
For the long-term patient investors, this story This is a story that's not broken. It's a story that hasn't even started yet. It hasn't left the launchpad yet, as I said. So, let me know your thoughts and comments below. What are your thoughts on these two companies and how are you playing the stocks right now in the market? Thanks for watching the video, and I hope to see you guys in the next one.
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