저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이크론 실적(6/24 수요일 장 마감 후) 앞두고 '실적 함정' 경고. 구조적 AI 슈퍼사이클로 펀더멘털은 강하나, 기대치가 과도하게 높아 '충족 수준'이면 3~8% 매도 소화 가능성. 삼성·SK하이닉스 생산능력 확대 및 코스피 내 비중(50%+) 언급. 진행자는 마이크론 보유 유지 입장이며, 일부 원금 회수(하우스머니 전략) 및 실적 후 메모리 동반 하락 시 저가 매수 기회를 제시.
다듬은 글
Guys, welcome back. First off, I want to say happy Father's Day to all the dads in the community. I hope you're having a a great time celebrating with your families. I have three boys, as you know, so I'm looking forward to celebrating with my family tonight as well. But, I want to drop this video first because I was traveling back from Vegas last night.
I had some time to think about the video that we put out I put out on Friday around the earnings trap and what we may potentially see this week with Micron. I had a chance to read a new article this morning as well that I think adds another layer to the story. I also want to go through just some of the capacity alerts that coming out of South Korea overall with Micron's big competitors and SK Hynix and Samsung.
What it could mean to their earnings overall, but particularly what it could mean to forward guidance and how the street could interpret that data and what they're looking for Micron to to mention or deliver uh this this Wednesday after the market close and what they're looking for them for forward guidance as well.
So, I want to review both of those pieces as well cuz I mentioned I do think it'll update our playbook on how we should approach our Micron holdings this week, how we should manage the risk in our portfolio. So, we're going to go through that. We're also going to talk about the mechanical reasons why the institutions have set the bar so high for Micron, maybe impossibly high this week.
So, all of that will lead to our updated playbook that I'll drop at the end of the video. So, make sure you stay for those. I'm going to give you three scenarios that I see on how Micron will perform after the earnings and what it ultimately will mean to your holdings overall and what you should potentially do.
I'll give you my recommendations at the end. So, stay to the end of the video as well, want to first stop and just say thank you to each and every one of you. Guys, we have grown the channel by 1,500 subscribers just in the last two videos alone. So, that is a massive endorsement, I would say, from each and every one of you.
So, thank you. I continue to thank you for your engagement, your your your comments, everything you do for this channel as we've been growing. You know, we started on January 5th and where we are today almost we just we just passed the 28,000 subscriber mark and I couldn't have done it without each and every one of you on the channel.
So, thank you very much. If you haven't subscribed yet though and you enjoy this content, hit the subscribe button now. Let's keep growing together. All right, let's jump in and talk about the first signal that I saw in the market, which was an article that came out this morning from a long-time analyst in this market.
He works for Bernstein. His name name is Stacy Ragson. You may be familiar with him. I wouldn't say Stacy is a bullish or a bearish analyst. I think he's a very measured voice in this space. He has an a PhD from MIT. He's well as an engineer, so his background is very applicable here and he's been following this sector for 18 years.
And this is what he mentioned if you scroll down here, you know, Bernstein's renowned chip analyst Stacy Ragson openly stated that this is the first time in his 18-year career that he is genuinely witnessed a semiconductor supercycle. Ragson's data is staggering. The global semiconductor industry has generated over 800 billion in revenue last year and now it is racing towards 1.3 trillion this year.
He goes on to show and confirm that every single segment, whether it's accelerators or memory or equipment or network optical communications, power chips, CPUs, every single segment is severely supply constrained or or has shortages overall. And the next paragraph is of particular interest for us in Micron investors cuz he says that HBM may now account for over 85% of the silicon area in AI chips.
And that the silicon area that is required to produce 1 GB of HBM is roughly four times that of standard DRAM. Meaning even if fabs expand production at full capacity, the actual increase in storage capacity remains extremely limited. So, this is a a very bullish report, I would say, for the sector overall.
It's bullish for memory providers, too. And there are a few things that jump out to me. Number one is an 18-year analyst in this space. This is the first time he mentioned that he has genuinely witnessed a true structural semiconductor supercycle. The other piece was the revenue that it's going from 800 billion to 1.3 trillion.
And the fact that HBM makes up 85% of the total silicon area right now. So, as he mentioned, even if our foundational factor or facilities, excuse me, even if the the fabrication facilities, if they run at 100% capacity, the silicon penalty that we see right now with the shifting towards HBM and what that means to the DRAM supply, it will it means that supply truly cannot physically catch up to the secular demand anytime soon.
So, that is a structural tailwind for Micron. And and that tailwind is ironclad in the marketplace right now. So, that is a bullish sign. And you may ask, "The long-term fundamentals are so bulletproof. And if this truly is the first semiconductor supercycle that Stacy Ragson has seen in 18 years, then why are we talking about an imminent pre-earnings trap with Micron?
If the fundamentals are this strong, why would we have to adjust our holdings with this stock?" I think it's not just the Barron's article that I talked about and that historic anomaly, the fact that we've seen 60% of the time the stock pull back after a strong earnings. I do think we will have volatility this week on Thursday, as well.
But, there is also a signal that is coming out of Asia. The short-term capital tape out of Asia right now is flashing a urgent warning signal. That explains why it explains exactly why a blowout print could still trigger a massive sell-the-news flush next week. So, let's take a look at that article out of Korea, as well, and we can walk through it together.
But, there's a couple things I wanted to highlight here. One is just we know Samsung and SK Hynix have had tremendous growth this past year. SK Hynix is up over 325% growth, but more importantly, they have crossed a historic capital milestone. So their market cap now just crossed over the 2,000 trillion won, which equates to 1.32 trillion US dollars.
They are firmly cemented as the second largest entity in South Korean history. And and an exponential boom was locked in following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's recent supply chain summit. But wrapped inside of this milestone is an aggressive multi-billion dollar cap expansion that has been planned by their executive board.
SK Hynix is launching this unprecedented unprecedented capital expenditure. They're trying They're They're launching this to double their entire memory manufacturing footprint over the next five years. They're deploying this massive capital with one explicit mandate in mind. They want to maintain the ironclad leadership that they have in this space.
They're going to double their memory supply over the next five years so they can maintain that 58 to 60% market share lead, that global dominance they have in this space all the way through 2030. So think about the structural game theory here. Micron Micron's high margin HBM3E pipelines are sold out under binding contracts through 2026.
That is a known variable for the market. But when the global memory titans of Samsung and SK Hynix, when they are dropping hundreds of billions of dollars to flood the market by the end of the decade, automated programmatic algorithms are looking down the field and that is a risk to them. They start to wonder, will will Micron's ability to execute in the market be dampened based on this supply increase by their competitors?
Furthermore, if you look at the second paragraph that I have highlighted here, you can see that the South Korean security desks issued urgent internal briefs. They're showing that Samsung and SK Hynix now command over 50% of the entire KOSPI index market cap. So essentially, the South Korean index is a synthetic proxy trade for the memory cycle.
The their domestic desks explicitly warned institutional clients that because semiconductor names have run so aggressively in 2026, that if Micron's forward numbers or their forward guidance guidance merely meets estimates rather than entirely shattering them, programmatic algorithms are already preset to trigger a synchronized global profit taking event.
So think about that for a moment. If Micron's forward guidance merely meets and doesn't completely shatter it, we are going to see a global profit taking event in the South Korean market, which could spill over into the US market and not only affect Micron, but could affect the other three members of the Fab Four as well.
So let's jump over and take a look at what those those expectations are actually for this quarter. So I'm going to pull it up. You see on your screen what not only what Micron guided to, but Wall Street estimates as well as a recent estimate that just came out from Goldman Sachs. But you can see that Micron's internal guidance, they are projected to report a fiscal third quarter of about 33 and a half billion.
Their earning adjusted earnings per share is $19.15, and their gross profit margin is 81%. These all represent astronomical leaps year over year. The actual institutional whisper numbers though, that are that are hitting the desk right now, are significantly higher. Take a look at the consensus numbers that you see in the middle there.
So the quarterly revenue is expected to be between 34.6 and 34.8 billion. Gross profit margins are higher, 81.9% and earnings per share jump up to 19 dollars and 72 cents between 1995. But I would look at the far right. Look at what Goldman Sachs has recently put out. They are quite They have quietly updated their internal modeling ahead of Wednesday's report.
So, they're pushing their numbers to the absolute edge of the street. Goldman is modeling a staggering 37.6 billion in revenue and an earnings per share of $22.07 for this Q3 print. The reason they're doing this is because Goldman explicitly noted that the broader street has been tracking 30 to 36% too low because they believe analysts are have completely failed to accurately calculate the velocity of the transition from model training to hardware layer AI inference.
In other words, what we need to think about going into this is that Micron doesn't need to beat expectations anymore. They need to beat expectations that are already beating expectations. The bar has been put impossibly high, as I said in the beginning of my video. And because Goldman and the other desks have raised that bar so high, good is no longer good enough.
Their execution must be flawless for this stock to continue with the momentum we have. So, before we talk about how to protect our capital and what our playbook should be this week as we move towards the June 24th date, I want to lay out three potential scenarios that could happen Thursday morning when that opening bell rings.
So, I had made this picture made to lay out my three scenarios and I want to start with scenario number one on the top. And this one is the dream outcome for Micron. So, then this case this is where Micron beats estimates, it raises its guidance, it confirms stronger than expected pricing power, and it expands long-term contract visibility into 2027.
In this scenario, the stock likely gaps up higher immediately because Wall Street's elevated or let's say that now it's like super elevated expectations still prove to be too conservative. I think this is possible, probably not very likely though. I'm leaning more towards scenario number two in the down in the left-hand corner here.
This is a scenario where this wouldn't surprise me at all if we see this happen. Micron delivers an incredible quarter. It beats expectations. It confirms the structural thesis, but management simply meets the market's now extremely elevated forward expectations. In this case, I think we could see could easily see a temporary 3 to 8% sell the news pullback immediately on Thursday morning.
That isn't a broken thesis though. That's institutions harvesting profits, market makers crushing implied volatility, and traders resetting positions after an extraordinary run. And then far to the far right, we have a third scenario, which is the risk case. I think this also has a very low probability of happening, but we'll go through it anyway.
So this in this case, this is where Micron posts strong numbers, but hints at some type of small crack in the in their approach. So this could be a packaging constraint. This could be an HBM transition risk. Softer than expected pricing assumptions for late 2026. Maybe their long-term contracts aren't as clear into 2027.
Something where there's a crack in the armor for the stock overall. And because expectations have been inflate inflated to near perfection, algorithmic traders would likely seize on any perceived crack in the narrative to drive a much much sharper correction or downturn for this stock. So this brings us to the most critical and candid conversation that we need to have on this channel.
Because many of the members in this community have entered their Micron positions early in this cycle. And because the stock has experienced an astronomical rally, many of you have watched your balances just absolutely skyrocket over the last year. And now you're facing a critical turning point, or maybe you have a critical decision to make.
And that decision could be choosing between chasing a bit more near a bit more of the near-term upside with Micron, or taking steps definitive steps to protect your wealth or the gains that you've made in the stock. So, I think we just have to shift. My recommendation would be shift your mindset into being more of an institutional risk manager versus a retail gambler.
And we'll talk about that with the updated recommendations for the playbook or how should we approach this stock in a minute. But first, I want to give you my approach. I want to be very transparent on what I'm going to be doing this week with Micron. My plan is to hold. I'm going to hold through the print, and I'll hold through any post cooling that we see after the print on Thursday, even into the week, maybe even into next week as well.
Because because my personal capital timeline is long. My cost basis is incredibly secure with Micron, and my target model shows that this structural AI gigacycle is going to drive Micron back to 1,500 and beyond over the multi-month horizon. So, I am mentally and financially prepared to sit through a temporary algorithmic flush, just like we rode it just like we saw back in March where the stock drove dropped down by 30% eight trading days after its print.
But remember, after it hit that nader and was down on March 30th, it rose 252% to where we stand today at just over $1,100 a share. But my risk tolerance may not be your risk tolerance, and that's why I've updated the playbook, and that's why I want to want to talk about it in this video overall. Because if you've entered this trade late, or if you're using leverage, or if your Micron position has grown to such an outsized uncomfortable portion of your net wealth that a 50 that a 12 or 15% downward swing post earnings would force you to panic and sell at the absolute bottom, then you should consider a tactical de-risking strategy before the market closes on Wednesday.
And if you want concrete proof on how the smartest money in the in the world or smartest money in the market handles this kind of expansion, we don't need to look any further than Micron's own executive suite. So, let me pull up that. We can take a look at the moves that those their executives have been making over the last 90 days.
And you can see on your screen here, if you look at April and May on the far right-hand side of of the graph, you will see that Micron's own insiders have sold roughly 93 million shares in the open market in the in the last 90 days. The people running Micron, they're not panicking. They know the structural super cycle is real.
They know how strong the fundamentals are with this company. But they are participating in disciplined asset management. They are taking massive chips off the table at these all-time highs right now to lock in generational wealth for themselves and their family. So, this may be an approach that you want to consider with your stocks, with your portfolio as well.
Is this an opportunity for you to take, you know, generational wealth for your family off the table and lock it in before we see any volatility in the market overall. If that is If you're in that position and you want a recommendation, I would My recommendation for you would be to execute what we'll call the house money protocol.
This would be dynamically trimming a portion of your position. Say specifically extract your initial seed capital plus a small cash buffer. Take your family's principal completely off the table and park it securely in cash. Let the remaining house money position ride through the print completely risk-free.
If the stock flushes on a short-term algorithmic sell-the-news event, your family's core wealth is secure. If the If the stock gaps up because we just hit it was the dream outcome, that's scenario one that I laid out, you still maintain a massive unhedged upside exposure in the stock. So, finally, remember that the playbook that we're potentially executing here doesn't doesn't just protect your core capital.
It sets up a massive tactical advantage across the broader storage cohort or across across the broader memory sector. Because if Micron faces a short-term correction next Thursday morning, we have to believe that we will see a synchronized sympathetic algorithmic pullback across the entire memory sector.
We'll probably see it with our South Korean friends as well based on the article that I just shared earlier. And when retail traders see a 5% 6% pullback in some of their favorite stocks like Western Digital, Seagate, SanDisk, they very well may panic and hit the sell button and dump their holdings.
And that would present us with an excellent opportunity to enter these stocks at a lower price point. If you're looking for an entry point, the market may give you a gift-wrapped opportunity overall. Because you know that on this channel, we extensively track the memory players overall. We track how differentiated each and every one of them are within the memory ecosystem as itself.
Because just remember SanDisk and their recent data that they released, they released a mind-boggling 640% year-over-year explosion in data center revenue proving that there's a ferocious appetite in the enterprise flash layer for SSDs. We know there's a ferocious appetite in the HDD's as well when the hyperscalers signing contracts out to 2028.
The pricing visibility that we've has given Western Digital and Seagate is tremendous right now in the marketplace. Each and every one of these companies has a distinct advantage and they are very differentiated in the ecosystem. So, if there's a pullback, if retail panics, and it presents an opportunity for you for you to enter, that's what we have to keep our eyes on this week.
So, let the automated algorithms play their short-term games on Thursday morning. If the knee-jerk reaction to Micron's print causes a sympathetic a sympathetic drop across the storage names or across the broader memory sector. This isn't a sign of structural weakness, as we've said. It is a highly lucrative gift-wrapped opportunity for each and every one of us.
An opportunity to find a new entry point if you're looking at it for one of these stocks. So, stay disciplined. Protect your principal this week. If that playbook makes sense for you, I encourage you to execute it overall, but it most importantly, ignore the noise that is going to hit us in the beginning of this week.
Continue to look for the signals in the market. Continue to watch my videos I drop at the end of each day after the market closes. And guys, have a great Father's Day. I'll see you on the next video. Hope you're all doing well.
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