Why Joseph Chin, Cambiar Investors, is bullish on TSM

요약 보기

TSMC의 강한 분기 실적(점유율 확대, 가격 결정력, 대규모 설비투자)을 근거로 반도체 장기 슈퍼사이클을 주장. 인텔의 파운드리 전략 검증과 리쇼어링 흐름 속에서 반도체 제조 생태계(장비·공급사)가 과소평가되어 있다고 봄. 업계는 과거 대비 더 나은 사업구조로 중반대 잉여현금흐름 성장이 가능하며, 과잉공급 우려에도 장기 상승 여력이 있다고 평가.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. uh good to have you joe so when i look at these results one of the things i see that might not be you know popularly seen is that pat gelsinger's strategy at intel is actually getting validated more and more when it comes to foundry and overall chip demand whether he can execute on that is a whole different question but the idea that there's going to be stable demand for chips and possibly well likely demand for foundry manufacturing outside of asia that seems to line up with what tsmc is saying now uh yes and good morning thank you for having me you asked a really interesting question and i'll answer on a couple different vectors first of all as it relates to tsmc very strong quarter demonstrating continued accelerating share gains pricing power and importantly a major increase in capital spending which is indicative of strong demand visibility into the future uh we're bullish on tsmc and we believe that this quarter confirms our long-term view more importantly i think what's happening at tsmc is um that they represent the tip of the iceberg in terms of the many interesting and transformational things that are happening in the semiconductor sector and you ask the question regarding intel and the in their attempt to get into the foundry services uh business overall and it's indicative of an overall industry structure where manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors is frankly very difficult more difficult than it has been in the past and it's and the value extraction from this ecosystem is increasing as a function of the changing supply demand equation in the business you also layer on a question around the strategic nature of foundry services and this is a whole new element to the industry which frankly we could spend the entire segment on but i think it's important to recognize that there is there are a number of companies in the manufacturing ecosystems that represent arm suppliers to this overall theme so if you believe that reshoring is in the strategic nature of manufacturing is a long-term trend there are many companies that will benefit from it yeah asml being one that i think about a lot there's some risk there geopolitically especially as various governments try to lock out china and and asml from dealing with them but maybe talk about the equipment makers and some of those other armed suppliers as a play within this environment of what tsmc is calling stable demand and the degree to which that's priced into those names now are there some names that perhaps are being underestimated uh it's a great question uh so we did a podcast on this issue in december which if if your viewers would like the long version of it it's available online but in short what we believe is happening in the semiconductor semiconductor industry is nothing less than a multi-year perhaps multi-decade super cycle akin to what happened to the energy sector in the late 90s to the mid-2010s against that backdrop one of our favorite areas to be investing in is the manufacturing ecosystem because they represent the businesses that are addressing the primary pain point of the industry which is this issue of moore's law stress or increasing transistor scarcity and due to the historic bias of cyclicality these businesses have been some of the most deeply discounted uh businesses in the sector and to address one of your questions do we believe there's still upside absolutely this is an industry that we believe can grow through cycle low double digits and depending on the individual companies that you're talking about with the relative share opportunities we believe some companies can grow well in excess of that and we don't believe the market is properly discounting that kind of long-term cash flow potential joe the the difficulty in finding anyone uh who believes we're at risk of over capacity does that worry you at all especially for those who've covered this business in multiple cycles for decades it's a great question and i mentioned earlier the the inefficiency in this sector due to traditional cyclical concerns i think it's important to point out that this industry was very cyclical in the past just as energy during certain paradigms is extremely energy it is extremely cyclical as well the fundamental supply demand equation in the in the various sectors that we're talking about are going to dictate how cyclical these businesses are through cycle how high the highs are high how high the lows are and the amplitude of the cycles we believe that the semiconductor industry and the manufacturing ecosystem in particular is fundamentally a better business today than it has been in the past and so while it's very fair to talk about cyclicality i think it's important to think about cash flow generation through cycle and as i mentioned earlier these are businesses that that can generate mid teens free cash flow growth through cycle in our view over the long term