저자: BillMillerIV · 외국인
요약 보기
소형가치·경기민감주 중심의 시장 확장(breadth) 전개를 주장하며 1999~2006 유사 국면 가능성을 제시. 금리 인하 기대와 거시 여건 개선을 근거로 소형주에 공격적 비중 확대를 권고. 메가캡 AI 투자의 자본지출 부담을 우려하면서도 알파벳은 해자(안드로이드·유튜브·검색)를 근거로 저평가 매력을 강조.
다듬은 글
Welcome again, from Palantir to Bitcoin and Mega Cap. Several successful market sectors have been lagging behind recently , leading some to wonder if we are in the early stages of expansion. Let's invite Bill Miller IV. He is the chairman and chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners. Congratulations again.
Nice to see you. Nice to see you, Scott. Thank you for inviting me. You believe in this thesis, don't you ? In market expansion? Definitely. I think it's interesting to look at last week: on Tuesday, the Russell 2000 index showed a 90% gain in its stocks, the first time in over three years that we've seen that level of coverage.
The next day, Wednesday, more than 80% of stocks also rose. This is a powerful market impulse. And this often happens during important turning points in the market. We believe that there is a significant likelihood that over the next few years we will see a situation similar to that which existed between 1999 and 2006.
Then, large-cap growth stocks lost 30% of their value, while the small- cap value stock index nearly tripled, outperforming the market by 20% per year for seven years. We are again seeing similar macroeconomic conditions: low but slightly rising unemployment. Inflation has largely been brought under control, and monetary policymakers are ready to ease.
If you look at what is happening now with the change in Fed leadership, as well as the potential increase in access to capital for housing construction, you can expect a situation very similar to 2000–2006 . So, in our opinion, it's worth owning small- cap stocks and cyclical assets, and being very aggressive here.
Or. Couldn't it be argued that the market dynamics you mentioned last week regarding small- cap companies were an overreaction by the market to the idea of rate cuts? And then we got PPI inflation data and others that hinted that maybe the Fed was n't going to do what we expected, and that's why small-cap stocks fell sharply at the end of the week.
That's possible, but ultimately, leaders want the economy to grow. They want inflation to be stable. The bond market currently expects 2.6% annual inflation over the next 2 years, which is quite acceptable. And another point that is often forgotten when talking about the differences between large growth companies and small value companies is valuations.
You see , at least for Mag 7 , very high valuations compared to the rest of the market just as their capital intensity is growing rapidly. I checked this before the broadcast: 5 years ago, in 2020, Mag 7 had about 100 billion in capital expenditures and 320 billion in operating cash flow. And last year, 550 billion in operating cash flow.
It looks like they are going to spend about 350 billion on capital investments. So you went from less than a third of operating cash flow to capital expenditures to a much higher figure—over 60%. So will all this pay off ? Everyone thinks so. Everyone is optimistic. But these are huge amounts of expenditure, and we have yet to see whether they will be justified in the long term.
I mean, you talk about capital intensity— your words—as a negative, not as a positive that others see: if you're going to build these digital roads into the future, it's going to take a lot of money, and it's obviously going to pay off. It simply may not pay off in the time frame some expect. Well , maybe.
Or it may turn out that everyone spends the same money on the same or similar models, which in the end turn out not to be so different. And then eventually they will start a price war. Who knows how things will actually turn out. But, you know, from our point of view, there are quite attractive options in this area.
I believe Alphabet is a way for value investors to invest in AI. If you look at their assets, they not only create models, but also have distribution channels: YouTube, search engine, Waymo. So, Google has a lot of chances for success. They are trading at a discount to the market, despite much better growth, better “ moat” and everything else.
So we really like Alphabet. Well, since you already mentioned the "moat" , the reason why it can be argued that the company is trading at such a discount compared to others is the doubt as to whether this moat has been crossed, and whether what looked like a solid defense is no longer so due to the development of AI, which will reduce their dominant market share.
Yes, that's a valid observation. But ultimately, they are in the hands of seven out of ten people every day, all day long, thanks to the Android operating system. And this is a real moat. So this isn't going away anytime soon . and they will find a way to make money from it
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