저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
관세는 일회성 물가 상승(CPI 약 1~1.5%p)을 가져오지만 Fed가 긴축할 근거는 아니며, 통화량 증가는 오히려 둔화 중이고 인플레이션 기대 우려도 데이터상 근거가 약하다. 고용 증가는 이민 제한으로 월 10만 명 수준으로 둔화했고 상반기 GDP는 1% 조금 넘는다. 단기 금리는 10년물보다 100bp 낮아야 하며(현재 10년물 4.25~4.3%), 연준은 Jackson Hole에서 인하 신호를 줘야 한다. 인하는 중소형 차입 기업(러셀2000)에 특히 도움이 된다.
다듬은 글
joining us now Jeremy Seagull, chief economist at Wisdom Tree and professor e. Uh good to see you. Uh Jeremy, we we have had guys like Kevin Worsh will mention tariff inflation. He'll say tariffs aren't what causes inflation. Never has been, never will be. But inflation is caused by an out of control money supply or too much stimuli stimulus in a supply constrained world.
And in in your view and what you're saying here um they're taxes tariffs. Taxes are tax consumption tax actually can cause growth to slow uh which just adds to the uh the concerns about the other side of the mandate and that is a full labor force. Yeah. Uh, you said it very well, Joe. I mean, it's it's a tax.
And I know of no good economic model that says, you know, when a government imposes a tax, they should tighten monetary policy. I mean, whether the flow through of inflation from tariffs is 20%, 40, 60, or 80 is really beside the point. I mean, I do think there's going to be a point, maybe a point and a half bump in the CPI.
is going to be a one-time, but that doesn't mean the Fed should tighten for that. That uh I mean that does not call for a tightening. I mean there the money supply is increasing actually slower uh that than it should. There's no other signs of of inflation going on. So I think this this whole idea, do we see the the tariffs and the debt everyone's saying do we see it yet?
like if we see it, the Fed should tighten is is really just totally barking up the wrong tree. And beside the point and this idea about going into inflationary expectations is is just also I think extremely misguided. uh you know, with all the mainstream media hysteria that hit in April and May, you know, we we really had uh the one-year inflation and expectations at 7.1% that I saw in the University of Michigan.
I said, "Where did that come from?" I said, "Not even the most pessimistic economist predicted that." And we and now it's coming down because people say, "Yeah, that was crazy." But what what did that do to the market? Did that cause inflation? Did that cause anything bad? So this idea that it's filtering into expectations that's harming the economy is just not present in the data.
So my feeling is I you know earlier on you were talking about how important this meeting is on Jackson Hole. This is by far uh Jay Powell's most important talk at Jackson Hole. And in my opinion if he just says, "Oh, we're going to wait and see. We have data on both sides. I think the market's going to take it very badly.
Um I think that would want him to say the data is telling us we really should begin our cutting process. Maybe we don't have stag or orflation. Maybe the Fed should just stand pat. I'm not I mean are you convinced that the labor market is is weakening right now? because it if if we don't have a stag, if we don't have a slowdown, there might not be any reason to to to cut.
I mean, I could see I could see that. But do you think that those revisions we saw did that change your viewpoint of, let's say, the last quarter uh of of labor market statistics? Are we at like at 30,000 a month or something? Are we that bad? Well, I know. Yeah. I mean, actually, I know I was pretty surprised.
Goldman Sachs put does some good analysis of what they think is the underlying rate. They actually said that it's it's it's down to 30. I don't think it's quite that low, but just the stop of uh the illegal immigration um most economists say that that has cut that you know the uh rate of job growth uh you know from uh you know I mean 250,000 down to 100,000.
Um and maybe it's at a slower rate right now uh than it would. You would you would expect that to happen. Um so I you know I you know the first half GDP you know was really just a little over 1%. We did have a a better second quarter than than the first quarter. Um I think we're going to have some slowdown.
This is a this is a consumption tax. This is a tariff tax. It is bringing in revenue. It did allow the big beautiful bill to lower some other taxes. So there is some stimulus on on that other side. We could get some trade off of the the deals that are made. Now, you know, as you know, I'm not I'm not a tariff fan.
I you know, I think that if we were going to do a consumption tax, which I'm in favor of, we should have done it much more across the board than we do just on on uh you know, foreign uh imports. Nonetheless, there is that other side and very few economists are predicting a recession, a one-time slowdown, a bit of that slowdown, a little bump, but uh right now just with this, you know, going down to 100,000 or 50,000 or GDP temporarily one one and a half% does call for lower rates.
Listen, the short-term rate should be 100 basis points below the 10-year rate. And right now, we're at 43 425 on the 10-year. And that means we should be moving to the low 3s on Fed funds. And that's really going to help Main Street. It's going to help those small firms. We see the Russell 2000 so responsive now to whether there's going to be a cut or not because it's exactly those small firms that are borrowing short, not the not the meg mag 7, not the big firms.
So you want to stimulate the economy, that's where you start lowering that short rate. I think there's really good cause for us to begin to do that. August and September historically aren't great. Do do you think uh you think we're in for a a pause here or or Well, there will be a I think there will be a pause if if Pal doesn't show flexibility and then there's going to be a you you know what Trump's reaction is going to be and then wow, we could see a lot of fireworks and really the naming of a of a uh of a of a Fed here.
you know, uh, you know, earlier on I said, you know, at this point, uh, you know, if he's too late, and you know, there might be signs he is, he was way too late on the inflation, boy, I mean, that criticism is going to come in and his credibility is going to be down. Um, so and and a shadow chair is a very difficult situation to have.
So, in in my opinion, the data supports lowering rates and uh I my feeling is is that I hope to hear that uh Friday morning. I mean, fighting the last battle is never a good idea. And that that's why they're so uh sensitive about inflation and being, you know, letting the cat not burying it completely and because they got so much grief and and and maybe rightly so considering what it did to uh you know, real wages and everything else uh when we got to 40-year highs.
But I've learned from betting. I whenever I you know I bet on a team and they just are the worst and then next time I'm betting it's like I remember how bad they were and I bet on the other team and then that team always wins because it fighting yesterday's battle uh that that never that never works and I think that's what they're doing right but I'm not convinced they should do you know I I don't things might be where we're not inflationary or heading into a slowdown and that's also a we everybody says stagflation maybe we got neither maybe things are sort of Okay, that's possible.
Yeah. I mean, station is a persistent. I mean, in the 1970s, you know, we had unemployment kept on rising. We had inflation of, you know, 8 to 10% for nearly 14%. And that is true stagflation. We had a misery index, Jeremy, of like over 20. Yeah. I mean, we are just nowhere. So, you know, people who say, "Oh my god, is stagflation.
If we have let's say we have a 1 and a half% onetime bump exactly from this tax and we have you know maybe for one year we have a slowdown of GDP from what it could be you know 2 and a half% down to one that's not the biggest disaster in the world if we open up the rest of our economy if we look forward to what AI could do to productivity that is not going to be the major mover going onward but I think you know at this particular point uh you know we are the only major country that has not lowered their rates and we should be looking beyond any bump on this tariff. It's okay.
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