Markets are holding onto the idea the economy's actually resilient, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

미국 경제와 노동시장이 여전히 견조해 시장이 강세를 유지하고 있다고 봄. 금리 인하는 필수가 아닌 부가 요인이며, 2025년 내 금리 인하는 없을 것으로 본다(9월 FOMC 컨센서스가 맞으면 입장을 바꿀 수 있음). 금리 인하 시 멜트업(과열 상승) 가능성이 커지지만 멜트업은 결국 멜트다운으로 이어진다. S&P500 선행 PER이 이미 22배로 높아 과열 구간에 근접했고, 1990년대 말 기술 버블 때 수준인 25배에도 가까워 강세장이 통제 불능으로 오르지 않기를 바란다고 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Where are stocks going next? Okay, we're inviting Ed Yardini to a power lunch . He is the founder and head of Yardini Research. Ed, it's so nice to see you here . Thank you very much. Okay. Why do you think the market is not reacting negatively despite high inflation figures and reduced expectations of future Fed rate cuts ?

02. I think we haven't given up on the idea that the market and the economy are strong yet ; It doesn't require lower interest rates, it's just an added benefit if interest rates go down . Today's unemployment figures indicate that the economy is doing well , and layoffs are very low , meaning no one is losing their jobs .

03. Ongoing claims suggest that jobs are taking longer to find, but overall the latest labor market indicators are good, so the next payroll numbers are likely to show an improvement. I know everyone was concerned about the decline in May and June , but July saw an increase compared to those months and I think that could continue in the August figures as well .

04. What I wanted to ask is, if the labor market is strong and inflation is high at the wholesale level, is there a chance for a rate cut? You indirectly said that the rates that need to be controlled should be reduced, given those circumstances, right? Brian, that's today's question. The market has been indicating the answer is yes for the past few days , with the Treasury Secretary even saying the Fed should cut rates, perhaps by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points.

05. But looking at today's PPI and unemployment figures, it seems like maybe we should wait a little longer . Let's think about this some more. I am of the opinion that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 , and I am willing to admit that I am wrong if the consensus that there will be a rate cut in September is correct.

06. But between now and the September 16, 17 FOMC meetings, yes. Anything can happen. There are still many data points to be released . There is a Fed meeting in Jackson Hole next week. Let 's discuss this more with Steve Leesman in a moment . You mentioned cake earlier . Now, leaving aside the fact that I want cake , let's stay on the same topic.

07. Because if there 's a rate cut in September, even if we don't need it, isn't that just an added attraction , Ed? So, does that stimulate the market and give stocks another boost, or are we seeing today that equity markets have nothing to do with it, because Manny will do his own thing, right? In the words of the Red Sox .

08. The market will grow. I think that increases the chances of a melt-up happening . Melt-ups are great when going uphill. The problem is, they naturally lead to meltdowns. There can be no melt-ups without meltdowns . And we already have a very high valuation multiple . We started the year with a forward PE of about 22 on the S&P 500 , and then in late January people started to worry about the Deep Sea, and then about Trump tariffs that could lead to a recession .

09. As a result, the PE fell to 18 . That's just a correction. That's not a bear market. And now we are at 22 again. We can go even higher . Let's not forget that we went up to 25 during the tech bubble. We are not that far from that level . So we are already in a kind of melt-up area, that is, an area of ​​increased valuation .

10. I don't think we want this bull market to get out of control and go up . Because it creates a lot of problems .