저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 엔비디아 실적에 균열은 없으며 시장이 성장률을 25~30% 과소평가한다고 주장하고, 엔비디아 시총이 2026년 초 5조 달러에 이를 것이라 전망함. 중국 매출 재개(약 500억 달러 규모 잠재력)를 낙관하며 AI 강세장이 2~3년 더 지속된다고 봄. 애플은 AI 부재를 이유로 퍼플렉시티 인수 등 M&A가 필요하다고 주장. 엔비디아·마이크로소프트·팔란티어를 최선호주로 제시.
다듬은 글
So Dan, you've called Jensen Wong the godfather of AI. You say he delivered once again, but we were just hearing from John Vin about that data center miss being disappointing. We've seen signs of slowing margins. You remain bullish, but you know, are we flirting with bubble territory at the very least seeing some more risks and cracks below the surface.
Yeah, I don't see any cracks. I mean, I think to some extent when you factor the China numbers in, it's actually even more bullish in expectations. And I think when you look if you start to go through everything and and you're clearly going to nitpick and where's data center you know obviously a little slightly disappointing.
Yeah. But the reality is you're looking at probably the street underestimating growth by 25 30%. That's why I think this is going to 5 trillion by early 26. Can you factor the China numbers in though Dan considering all the unknowns that are out there? We we we just don't know if we're going to get that approval.
Yeah. The problem is is that look, if you're and there's going to be skepticism on US China, but the reality is that the biggest poker chip at the table is Nvidia. They I believe they're going to sell into China that that's what ultimately could be 50 billion 50% type growth. And again, there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and that's led by the godfather of AI, Jensen, Nvidia.
And I think that's how this is all going to play out. There would clearly be ups and downs, but I think when you read through it that this is a, you know, I believe just the start of a transformation that's happening in tech. So then what what keeps this rally sustainable and chugging along here? Is it still that that data center build out or or do we need to see new AI use cases emerge in order to justify these valuations and for Nvidia to keep performing and outperforming like investors expect?
Look, I think it's about spreading, right? I mean, today it's it's only big tech, but now sovereigns are going to play. Think about Middle East. Think about everyone. So, as this all starts to play out, you're now going to start to see globally Nvidia fueling it. We're talking about trillions of growth.
And that's why I think, you know, when you look at AI, in my opinion, this tech bull market has 2 to 3 years at least ahead of itself cuz we're just starting to play out. We continue to believe it's only 1000 p.m. Was 900 p.m. a year ago, but it's only 10 p.m. in the AI party. That goes to 4:00 a.m.
4 a.m. to the party. Now, we were just talking about China. Jensen Wong really stressed the importance of that market in his conversation with Yahoo Finance. and he also pointed to the Trump administration and how grateful he's been for their support. Take a listen to what he told us. President Trump really understands and really wants and his it's his policy to have America win the AI race and that that's really foundational recognizing that that's important for national security.
It's important for our economic security. It's important for American leadership around the world and and he understands that the American tech stack should be the world standard just as the American dollar is the world standard that economies are built on. I've always enjoyed the conversation with the administration.
They're very constructive. They're trying to help. They have a great sense of urgency which I love. So Dan, your reaction in Jensen's comments, do you see this as diplomatic posturing in any way to the administration or or is this a signal that policy really is central to Nvidia's future? Don't let the black leather jacket fool you.
That's 10% politician in Jensen, 90% CEO. Look, right now, I mean, he knows he has the golden touch and he continues to have that front row seat and really be a strategic adviser for Trump. And I but but the reality is is that if Nvidia can't sell into China, guess who gets strengthened? Huawei. So when you talk about the US China arms race, Nvidia plays a huge role.
And that's why I think eventually I mean the coast will be clear, the green lights there. It's a payfor-play model. China will be open. And how much of Nvidia's success and really the AI trade broadly tied to what we see in Washington? This this feels like a story beyond just Nvidia, especially as a lot of those big tech CEOs have been cozying up to the president and the administration.
It's new rules of the game, right? And I think, you know, from Cook to Jensen to to everyone else there, I think everyone's understanding how to play it. And you know, when you think about everything that's happened the beltway, it is going to play an important role because right now it's this arms race playing out between the US and China.
tariffs clearly play in and you got to see how the restrictions ultimately play out. But the reality is for the first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech because of the AI revolution and because there's only one chip fueling the AI revolution, godfather of AI, Jensen Nvidia.
Now, speaking of big tech, navigating Washington, navigating policy, Apple has been at the center of that conversation. We have the upcoming iPhone event. They just announced that date uh early September. Do you see that event as a catalyst for the stock, especially considering Apple shares have underperformed?
Look, it's a catalyst. I believe it's going to be a big upgrade cycle. We've talked about it, but the reality is Apple, they're playing baseball without a shortstop and a catcher. They're missing AI. And there's only one way they're going to do it. It's not from innovation within Certino. they're going to have to do an acquisition where there's perplexity as well as doubling down the Gemini partnership.
I think that combined with iPhone 17 are the keys to what I view is, you know, a stock going much higher, but they cannot miss this AI boat. But Apple hasn't really been the the buyer of assets, right? So, I I guess what do you think it would take or what company would it take for them to really change that mindset?
We think it's perplexity. I mean, it's it's clear as day that innovation's not going to become app when it comes to AI. And that's why I think they're going to have to do an acquisition. I I think the writing's in the wall and this is the time. And another debate that was popping up a lot online, it's was even a top Google trend is Nvidia versus Microsoft.
Obviously, two very different businesses here, but if you could only pick one that you would want to have in your portfolio over the next 12 months, which company do you think is best positioned? That's like picking which kid you which of your kid you I know it's hard. I mean, come on. I like But look, I think those two they'll they'll both, you know, I I think they're both going to be in the $5 trillion market cap club.
And I think when you think about who's fueling it, it's Nvidia and Microsoft. And that's I those continue to be our two top picks along with Palunteer. And it's because of AI. They're just utilizing those AI use cases the best out of the rest of the Mag 7. They're playing a different game. They're like Scotty Sheffler playing golf.
All right, you heard it here. Scotty Sheffler playing golf. Dan Ies, thank you. appreciate your insights as
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