저자: VijayKedia—제목/설명란기준출연자소속확인어려움,자막에'마담'호칭있으나진행자구분불명확 · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 강세/약세로 나누기보다 경제 반영체. 과열 시 방어, 위기 시 공격적으로 전환. 위기 매수가 부 창출의 원천. 이야기(스토리)가 유지되면 보유하고 가격목표·기간목표는 없음. 인도 경제 성장(주택·인구·생산성) 기대, 세라(Cera) 등 위생도기 사례. 은행(PSU 소형은행)이 저평가로 보인다고 언급. 세부 수치는 과거 사례 중심.
다듬은 글
My mind is very clear ma'am, I think that this bull market or bear market is not like that, so my code is that we are neither in a bull market nor in a bear market, we are in the stock market, so the idea is to understand the Indian economy, if the economy is running then the stock market is its reflection, the stock market does not have any existence of its own, whatever is happening in the economy also gets reflected, if it increases too much here then it corrects it on its own, this is the phenomenon of the market, so this bull market or bear market does not make any difference to me, rather what happens is that when the market becomes very high hyped or goes high then I withdraw from the market.
I get subdued. I come in to play defense. And when the market is in crisis, I become offensive. I work in reverse. So, I also have a code, madam, that whatever money people in the world have earned, they have earned it by investing in the bear market. You won't create much wealth by investing in a bull market.
There is a difference between making money and creating wealth. The wealth that is created in the market is also created during a crisis. Whether you take the crisis of Lebanon Brothers or the crisis of Covid or any other crisis. In that, the person who bought the shares, by showing courage or by adjusting his portfolio in any way, earned money here.
So for me this is bull market bear market first thing for me to say something empty since we are talking so I can give you some references about bull market and bear market. But actually mentally I am not worried about it. Of course that does not mean that my stock price falls. So of course I am worried about it.
Not worried. Means it draws my attention. That friend, this has fallen down. Then he says what was mine, it fell. Your demat statement belongs to the market. Your bank statement belongs to you. It's very simple. So, it doesn't matter much to me whether it is a bull market or a bear market. The lesson is that after Covid, the market is falling and these new people who have come, this will create a structure of life for them, such a big lesson for these people, if they learn from this then this is a big lesson for them, this is a blessing and disguise, people first come to the stock market, so do they come to speculate, first of all to earn money immediately, and the market supports them because if you push a moving train then you will feel that you are pushing it.
Earlier, the bull market used to end within 9 months and the bear market used to last for two-three years. After 2003, it happened that the bull market lasted for 5 years and when the bear market came, there was a big crisis and within 10 months the market made a bottom and came into revival mode. It doesn't matter if a new high comes after 3 or 4 years.
But the stocks that were supposed to make big lows did so and the crisis that was about to come ended and the market started stabilizing. The same situation happened during Covid. So, if you look at this Covid, the bigger crisis than this was the biggest crisis of the century. Even after that, if you look at the market, it had come into recovery mode within 9 months.
A market should not be mistaken for a bull market or a bear market just because it reaches a new high. It is a big myth that a bull market will occur only if a new high is reached. Nothing like this happens. A new high is a rather dangerous sign as it could mean that it is preparing to fall. So I do not believe in bull market or bear market, rather I will tell you that between 2008 to 2012, there were four-five years in which the shares that I had bought earlier, at that time, increased by 50-50 to 100 times.
Between 8 to 14 and people think that the bull market came after 2014. People think so. So these people should not think like this. So I think bull markets are getting bigger. Bear markets are getting shorter and the arrival of a bear market is rather like a filter. What is it about me, I have a lot of patience.
So one of my quotes is change the story behind the stock not money on the table. Money will make you rich but stories will make you wealthy. So this applies to both things. This applies only when the market is falling and also applies in a rising market. Many times it happens that you bought shares for ₹50.
You think that ₹100 becomes ₹50. You leave and later find out that it becomes ₹2000. It becomes ₹000. So you missed that story. It also happens that you bought shares within ₹50 and it became ₹500. According to the formula I have just told you and what I think, I would not have sold it even for Rs 500.
Or did not sell it even for Rs 200. But after that it fell to ₹50. That's what you're talking about, it's been hovering between ₹50 and ₹100 for 5 years. This also happens. So you will have to choose a formula. You are not so smart that you will apply this formula to this, you will apply that formula to that.
You do n't have that ball or a crystal ball, you will know from it. You will have to follow only one principal. So my principle is that I remain invested in the shares as long as the story is intact. Till then, whether he performs in numbers or not or performs in the market or not, I remain within him.
When the story changes, he is performing and only then I can leave. So I just do n't pay attention to the stock market price. I pay attention to the company's activities. What about me, I don't even have a fixed time to take it. If I buy shares and you ask me when will I sell them, I don't know. It may be after 6 months, it may be after 12 years, and at what price will you sell me, I have no price.
Because here shares of ₹50 are worth ₹00. We have seen this. As you may have heard, I have a share. If I add dividend to it, the stock is sanitary and gives a return of 16,000 times. 16,000 times. If I calculate dividend in it then I get ₹1 costing. So one idea can change your life. So here your work can be done within one stock only.
So by saying this, I do not have any price target, this thing teaches me that I do not have a price target. I do n't have a time target. As long as it's working, it's working. Even if it is a long period, see what it is. What I think is that if you look at your portfolio in the stock market individually, all the shares, all the athletes are not going to cross 100 meters in 8.9 seconds.
You have to see the entire bouquet to see how many flowers are there inside my bouquet. Some of them will give more fragrance, some will last longer. Someone is more artistic. Any portfolio will give you percentage wise returns. Any multi will return multiple times. No one will perform. Overall you should see.
If you see it single, you may regret that it did not perform for me. It is not necessary that all the shares will perform. So if he doesn't perform, if he doesn't perform and if the management is not making any mistake or doing any stupid thing, then I stay with him. The thing was that at that time only three companies were listed in that company, in sanitary ware one was Jaisera Sanitary Ware and one was Hindustan and Aid Aid Parry, one was ware from Hindustan, these three companies were listed, rest of the things which were manufactured in other unorganized sectors in Morbi, all of them were manufactured, so there were only three companies and the market size of India is definitely growing.
We are seeing that growth is continuing in India, so there is bound to be growth in housing as well. This means that any person will just say after seeing it, you do not need to do much study on this that India will grow. As long as there is growth in productivity, there is growth in population. Every country expands.
Every country grows. So these were two things in India. There was growth in productivity and also in population. So there will be growth in housing. Will come to housing. So understand that it will come inside sanitary ware. Something happened there that the shares were cheap as compared to others, these shares were very cheap.
So all I understood was that all the other ones are available in 101 KP and in Sera Centre it is available in 5 KP. And I asked a developer who is a real estate developer, my cousin, and he said we use Cera and generally developers use Cera more because it is cheaper than others, so I thought there is a boom in housing, all this is coming, so I bought Cera at the same time, one more thing happened that EID Perry sold its division, its Sani division, to Roca, so when it was sold to Roca, they paid double the sales price and Cera was available at half the sales price at that time.
I had four times leverage, understand this, if the turnover was of 500 crores, it is available for 500 crores and Roca bought a company with 1000 crores for 2000 crores, then I felt that 500 crores and 2000 crores, so I have leverage, so I invested there and I gained more confidence and I kept it, okay, so this is a small thing, it is a very simple thing, if you observe it then it is a very simple thing, so accordingly I just bought Sera and then the housing boom continued and all that and population growth is also going on in India, so I kept studying it, I sell it little by little in between and sold it little by little, whatever 1.15% of the last amount which was left, I sold it now, last year in September 23, one to one bonus came at the price of 8200, so I sold it all at the price of 16400, so see the trends, what do I think I feel that we are currently in the Amritkaal, India is going through the adolescence phase, which is called India entering adulthood from childhood and the next 5 years, 7 years are so important for India or this decade, you can understand that the decade is so important in it, India's structure for this century will be ready in this decade, within the next 5 to 8 years, you can understand that the structure of what India is going to do in the next 50 to 100 years will be ready, so this is very fragile and very important and should have high growth, so this does not mean that I feel that all the sectors are going to boom, if you compare everything with any parameter, like we say per capita income, we say per capita consumption, we apply the formula, we compare it with China, we compare it with other countries, so we are not a mini-skull anywhere.
Correct, we are not at all good in anything, there is no comparison between us, so I think all the sectors are doing well, but there are some sectors which I like, what happens to me is that I always think negatively, my attention goes towards the ones which are not working, whatever becomes fashionable, I leave that sector.
I become conscious that this is a big tradition. Trudy is done. Everybody is saying the same thing. So I talk about that and I don't pay attention to that. I don't even sell it. I keep it big. So I feel like it is tourism. For example, India is still under-penetrated for tourism. I like banks in the current market.
PSUS banks: The small banks within PSUs seem cheaper to me. You look so cheap that I feel like buying that bank.
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