Tom Lee: "STRUCTURAL LOW IS IN!" - My Urgent Warning & Options Strategy NOW 🚨

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연사는 VIX가 60을 넘었다가 31 아래로 내려온 점을 2008~2009년 및 2020년 저점 패턴과 비교하며, 구조적 저점이 이미 형성됐다고 주장한다. 시장 내부지표로 50일선 위 종목 비율이 20% 아래로 떨어진 점을 들며 과거 16년간 6·12개월 뒤 지수가 높았다고 언급한다. 다만 박스권 횡보 가능성이 크고 관세·지정학 등 불확실성이 남아 있다고 본다. 이를 근거로 풋옵션 매도(팔란티어, 엔비디아, 구글·아마존·마이크로소프트·메타 등)와 우량주 분할 매수를 제안한다. 단, 방향성 예측은 주로 횡보 또는 완만한 상승에 맞춰져 있다.

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01. Tom Lee we're at a structural low Urgent warning to all investors by invest with Henry I watched this video earlier and it's really good Henry made a lot of good points that I had also made in my trade alerts regarding decreasing volatility and risk levels So let's go through them This is one of the most volatile times I've seen since 2020 or even 2008 But if there's one thing that proves certain for sure no matter what the circumstances are is that the investor that stays calm and takes advantage of opportunities does far better than the investor who panics Investors panic and make emotional decisions almost always lose So let's take a couple of minutes and actually look at the technical analysis from Tom Lee and what he thinks is a structural support in this market But there is some significance to the fact that the VIX was at 60 and now is at 31 Let me explain There's three numbers I want to highlight The VIX was at 60 on April 7th and then on April 11th the VIX closed at 3756 which is an important level and then earlier this week it closed at below 31 The VIX above 60 has only happened a handful of times It happened of course this past week It happened during the GFC right So VIX over 60 is basically co that's 2020 and then 2008 the great financial crisis That's when we sold VIX over 60 Recently we've also seen VIX over 60 and now it's coming back down Well let's look at the GFC Let's use those three dates or those three levels I marked The VIX above 60 which was October 2008 The VIX falling below 3756 which didn't happen till January '09 And the VIX closing below 31 quote importantly when you close below 31 you were past the low cuz the low was March 09 during CO the VIX didn't close below 3756 until March 24th 2020 and it didn't close below 31 until April 2020 but you were already past the low so I think that we're still at a bull market I'm just not clear if it's a V-shaped recovery like 2020 or my gut feeling is that we're going to be rangebound because there's too much uncertainty I think that continued volatility is something that we're going to experience where Many people are going to be on edge But as the number of things that could possibly go wrong end up working themselves out such as tariffs and China and Iran and Russia and Ukraine and lower interest rates and tax cuts as those dominoes start to fall then I think the market is primed to climb higher It's a range market like 2011 Intuitively I'm going to say that it makes sense that we made a bottom but we're maybe rangebound for a bit This is actually the best opportunity if the market is going to be rangebound to sell put options Exactly what I showed in my yesterday video about Palunteer It's the exact It's not a bad idea I'm not sure that Palunteer is the best stock to sell put options on considering that Palunteer's recent price action has been very high And I also believe that over the past month Palunteer is one of the few tech stocks that have actually increased in price So it definitely does have strong price action However I believe that a better value play would be to sell put options on something like Google or Amazon or Microsoft or even Meta Even though with Meta you have the additional uncertainty of the United States trying to break up the company However I do feel that the stock is oversold Strategy that I'm using my portfolio right now I sold puts on Palanteer sold puts on Nvidia I'm looking at buying Apple stock right now I'm looking at buying companies but instead of just buying into them I'm selling put options which supports exactly what Tommy is saying If we're going to go sideways and we get zero returns for the next 3 weeks 3 months then the best opportunity will be to still create income and to purchase companies as they are going back up as they have this recovery that's not going to be V-shaped If the market is going to be treading sideways and then in the future it's going to increase you're probably better off buying shares and then selling covered calls or if you're going to sell puts in order to collect extra premium then you'd want to sell puts at a strike price where you wanted to take ownership of the stock So probably selling a 50 or 60 delta That way you're pretty indifferent whether you take ownership of the stock or you continue to sell put options and collect a lot of premium that there's other shoes to drop I mean the tariff war with China could turn into a cold war Investors are going to worry about the ripple effects from this shock leading to a global recession These are extreme views by the way that some people are going to worry about a financial crisis from all this deleveraging and inflation expectations could surge to an extent that we get greed inflation Remember that's like companies basically raising prices and it's going to force the Fed to hike And of course if estimates fall off more than 20% stocks have downside because the stock market already had a 20% draw down But the internal low seems to have been in place This is the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average at the top and above the 200 day moving average on the bottom Below 20% is a big deal because over the last 16 years the S&P was higher 6 months and 12 months later In fact if you look at 3 months later outside of 2022 the stock market was higher 3 months later every single time So I think we did make a structural low So guys what's really interesting is when there's a lot of fear in the market and the VIX is over 60 and that's basically what we saw in October of 2008 and then a couple of months later in January of 2009 basically we had the bottom and then when things were recovering in May 2009 then basically the market was past its low as Tom Lee was saying and we're in a very similar market right now It looks exactly the same there's a huge sell-off and basically everyone got out of their stocks but we've already seemed to have hit that low So a lot of people have lost money Yeah I would agree with that I think that now is a good time to be cautiously optimistic The problem when you sell put options and this is something that I see quite frequently when they sell a put option at that moment when they put the trade on they don't mind getting assigned the shares However as the market continues to fall and then that strike price ends up getting challenged suddenly they no longer want to take ownership of that stock at the strike price And that's a psychological impediment because when they put that trade on they had no problem taking ownership at the strike price But as the stock market fell then they no longer wanted to own the stock at that strike price The best way to combat that is to ask yourself anytime you put on a trade Do I feel comfortable owning this security at this strike price If the answer is yes and the market falls take ownership and run the wheel If the answer is no and the market continues to fall then you can either roll or manage that trade or you can simply close it out for a loss That way you don't incur that much stress Many investors have gotten out of the market have quit investing have given up on option trading have given up on long-term investing short-term investing they're out They're done And now that we're getting a recovery the investors that have been holding then you have started to recover your money We're going to get a slower recovery unlikely to have a V-shaped recovery because we already had so many V-shaped recoveries since 2020 Of course there were many recoveries but right now I think investors are going to be more cautious And it's really important to directly compare this to the VIX and 2008 crisis because there's a lot that we can learn here The VIX was at 60 before the market fully crashed and hit a low Then after the low the VIX settled down around 30 marking the passing of the market's low So what does this mean for the market crash happening right now It means right now is essentially the urgent time that you should be taking action There should be no more waiting and guessing because yeah I think that right now is a good time to establish new positions in some of your favorite companies at prices that are 20 or 30% below where these same stocks were trading at just a few months ago Let's stop it there We don't have to go through the rest of the video But this is a good video by Henry and it's something that I definitely agree with him on where psychologically people are always concerned that the bad times are going to continue However the market is telling us through numerous indicators by looking at VIX by looking at VVIX by also looking at some of the recent price action that even if the market trades sideways and doesn't increase the low is probably behind us Now the market is very sensitive to geopolitical issues and also interest rate decisions And it seems that many branches within the US government are at odds and fighting one another That's something that I've never experienced in my lifetime And because there's not a historical precedent to something like this I have no idea how the market's going to react to additional uncertainty However what I can say is if I was a betting man I believe that the low is already in and I believe that we're going to trade sideways until some of the uncertainty is no longer a factor and then we'll continue to climb higher David Jaffee with beststockstrategy.com If you like this video then please subscribe and leave it a like and watch the video that's popping up on your screen right now because YouTube believes that you would enjoy it the most