저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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2023년 미국 경기침체가 거의 확실하다는 Michael Burry의 경고를 중심으로, 인플레이션 정점 이후 금리 인하와 재부양에 따른 2차 인플레이션 가능성을 다룬 영상이다. 마이클 버리는 2023년 인플레이션이 하락하며 경기가 악화되고, 연준이 금리를 낮추고 정부가 지출을 늘린 뒤 인플레이션이 재반등할 것이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션은 정점을 찍었지만 이번 사이클의 마지막 정점은 아니라고 본다. 2023년 하반기에는 CPI가 낮아지고 음(-)으로 떨어질 수 있다고 전망한다. 블룸버그 설문(애널리스트 38명, 12월 기준)에서 2023년 경기침체 가능성은 70%로 11월의 65%에서 상승했다. 2023년 GDP 성장률은 0.3%에 그치고, 2분기에는 연율 기준 -0.7% 분기 감소가 예상된다. 골드만삭스 AM의 마리아 벨설루는 실질 GDP 성장과 실업률 악화가 심해지거나 인플레이션이 목표치 근처로 떨어지기 전까지 연준이 긴축을 유지할 것으로 본다. 일론 머스크는 미국 경기 침체가 최대 18개월 지속될 수 있다며 신중한 자금 운용과 부채 회피를 권했다. 제프 베이조스는 큰 지출을 미루고 현금을 충분히 보유하라고 조언했다. 뱅크오브아메리카의 마이클 게이펜은 2023년이 어려운 해가 될 수 있다고 봤으나 침체가 확정적이지는 않다고 했다. 버리는 2022년 초 미국 가계가 저축보다 차입을 늘리고 있어 소비 둔화와 장기 침체 가능성이 있다고 경고했고, 대량 화이트칼라 해고와 팬데믹 기간 호황을 누린 증시의 큰 하락을 예상했다. 영상은 이 예측들이 2022년에 대체로 현실화되었다고 평가한다. 영상 속 경고 대부분은 2023년 경기침체에 대한 거시 전망이며, 개별 종목 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않았다. 영상 제작 시점은 2023년 5월로, 이후 실제 전개와 차이가 있을 수 있다.
다듬은 글
the famed investor Michael Berry who astonishly won close to a billion dollars by betting against the U.S housing market in the middle of the 2000s has once again raised the alarm as the U.S inflation rate hits a 40-year high this time his forecasts for 2023 are gloomy the famous investor from The Big Short known for his pessimistic but frequently correct predictions made The Bleak forecast in a tweet last Sunday but are you ready for the impending economic turbulence stay until the end of this video to discover if you have the answer to that question but before getting into the details let's learn more about Michael Berry he is a highly accomplished neurosurgeon in addition to being a successful American investor who created the hedge fund Scion Capital with just little inheritance investors all across the world recognize him as one of the few who anticipated the subprime mortgage crisis and took appropriate action in 2007 bury was able to generate a tremendous profit of a hundred million dollars by shorting the mortgage bond market using collateralized debt obligations or cdos with a personal profit of 100 million dollars and a return to investors of 700 million dollars but what bury is really known for was his one billion dollar bet against the housing boom in the middle of the 2000s which was depicted in the book and movie The Big Short he also placed bets against Elon musk's Tesla and Kathy Woods Flagship Arc Innovation fund last year and by buying GameStop before its stock Rose at the beginning of 2021 he unwittingly laid the basis for the meme stock Mania Last Summer the Scion CEO issued a warning about the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things cautioning investors in meme stocks and cryptocurrencies saying that they were headed for the mother of all crashes which they somewhat did so when this man makes a prediction concerning the future of the U.S economy it probably makes sense to listen as long as inflation stays at a 40 year high AI consumers and investors are concerned about how much the cost of living will increase and the question on everyone's mind is would the country experience another recession yes the frightening r word however there is little doubt amongst analysts today that a recession will occur in 2023 what took place during the covid-19 pandemic due to a number of circumstances including supply chain interruptions and a surge in demand for some products such as household goods and personal protective equipment several Nations saw a considerable rise in inflation during the covid-19 pandemic these elements combined with monetary policy actions taken by central banks such as increasing money injections to boost National economies led to a decrease in the number of items available in a rise on demand which raised prices What followed was inflation Rising levels of expenses and lowering the purchasing power of the average person's income the sudden increase in inflation was only brief and was brought on by the pandemic's special circumstances burrie's most recent economic forecast and warning are receiving more Credence according to a Bloomberg survey conducted in December among 38 analysts there was a 70 possibility that there would be a recession after 2022 up from 65 in November according to medium projections GDP will expand by just 0.3 percent overall in 2023.
this includes a quarterly decline of 0.7 percent on an annualized basis in the second quarter and no growth in the first or third quarters and according to Maria vesselu co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management she expects some changes in the foreseeable future in her own words she says we expect that the FED will stay in restrictive policy for a while unless the effect on real GDP growth and unemployment becomes particularly severe and inflation has fallen close to Target bury projects a decline in inflation and deteriorating economy in 2023 which he says will drive the Federal reserved to reduce interest rates in the government to boost expenditure to encourage growth raising demand and possibly triggering a rebound in inflation he said that the inflation rate has peaked but he also stated that this was not the Cycle's final Peak inflation peaked bury wrote on Twitter on January 1st but it is not the last peak of this cycle we are likely to see CPI lower possibly negative in 2H 2023 and the US in recession by any definition he issues a warning that the Consumer Price Index or CPI is likely to experience a considerable decline in the upcoming year and could even become negative in the second half of 2023 the long expected recession would occur as a result of such a drop in inflation the FED will cut the government will stimulate and we have another inflation Spike it's not hard Barry says all of this will result in a subsequent spike in inflation similar to what occurred during the covid-19 pandemic we'll essentially witness a practice run for what happened after March 2020 in response the Central Bank increased its base interest rate from a position of near zero to over four percent with the assumption that this rate would rise further and reach a peak of more than 5 percent in 2023 bury argues that by reducing consumption investment and employment higher interest rates have the effect of reducing inflationary pressures and by discouraging spending investment and hiring higher interest rates seek to reduce upward pressure on prices along with Michael Berry other well-known businessmen and investors including Tesla's CEO Elon Musk and Amazon owner Jeff Bezos have issued recessionary warnings according to Elon Musk a U.S economic decline May last up to 18 months he advised investors to ride it out by being cautious with their money avoiding debt and taking fewer chances on the other hand Jeff Bezos advises Americans to delay making new purchases and keep as much cash on hand as they can my advice to people especially small business owners is to take some risks off the table if you're going to make a purchase maybe slow down that purchase a little bit Bezos said last November if you're an individual and you're thinking about buying a new large screen TV maybe slow that down keep that cash and see what happens same thing with a refrigerator a new car whatever let's take some risks off the table if you're a small business maybe delay some Capital per purchases do you need that new piece of equipment maybe it can wait a little bit have some cash on hand just a little bit of risk reduction can make the difference for that small business Bezos concluded also the Bank of America Chief Economist Michael gapen also seems to share similar views about the economy he believes that the United States will have a recession in 2023 although he is less certain about his prediction he disclosed this on face of the nation it's not baked in it's not certain we may be able to avoid it but I would agree that the Outlook of most people who sit in the position that I do think 2023 could be a difficult year for the U.S Berry was one of the few investors who predicted the subprime mortgage crisis that lasted from 2007 to 2010.
he shorted the 2007 mortgage bond market by swapping cdos and profited heavily from it and as a result became one of the role models for flouting accepted wisdom in the financial industry the 2015 movie The Big Short show cases how the investor who had little prior knowledge of real estate and finance came to realize that the industry had turned into a sand castle with financiers and bankers developing exotic products based on mortgages offered to financially unstable households and borrowers with bad credit according to burry's Twitter handle Cassandra BC he seemed to enjoy the part he constitutes a party pooper for Traders and Risk Takers bury had warned last year that American families were borrowing more saving less each month and were very certain to deplete their savings by the end of the year suggesting the possibility of a Slowdown in consumer spending and an extended recession in recent months bird forecasted that the economy was about to decline drastically that there would be a wave of mass layoffs of white-collar workers and that the stock market which had enjoyed two years of success during the pandemic would soon face its worst slump the Striking thing is that by 2022 all these predictions came true which explains why we should really be concerned about brewery Sunday tweet so what do you think about what the financial experts have said concerning the recession do you think it's something the U.S can avoid let's hear your thoughts in the comments section below bye
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