저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 차터블 트러스트 보유 종목 약 2/3는 바이든 당선 시 실적·성장에 유리하다는 취지로, 대중국 무역 완화 기대가 핵심이다. [핵심 주장] 트럼프 대중 무역전쟁이 기업 부담을 키웠고, 바이든 당선 시 중국과의 관계가 완화되어 기업 실적에 긍정적이라는 논리다. 크레이머는 증시 전체에는 바이든이 유리하다고 단정하지 않는다고 덧붙였다. [애플] 트럼프의 대중 제조 압박으로 애플 부담이 컸으나, 바이든 체제에서 중국과의 관계가 덜 적대적이면 주가에 호재라고 봤다. 애플이 S&P500에서 차지하는 비중이 커 지수에도 영향이 있다고 언급했다. 매수 방향 긍정. [반도체] 브로드컴, 마벨, AMD, 엔비디아가 언급되었다. 브로드컴과 엔비디아는 중국 규제 승인이 필요한 인수합병(브로드컴의 M&A, 엔비디아의 암홀딩스 인수)을 추진 중인데, 바이든 행정부에서 중국 승인이 수월해질 것으로 봤다. 엔비디아 입장에서는 멜라녹스 사례처럼 중국이 규제를 지연시킬 수 있다는 우려도 말했다. AMD는 트럼프 체제에서 중국 정부가 경쟁 자원을 쏟아부을 가능성이 커 바이든 쪽이 유리하다고 봤다. 마벨은 화웨이 제재로 사업을 잃었으나 바이든 하에서 일부 회복될 수 있다고 봤다. [소비재·기타 미국 기업] 스타벅스(중국 성장 엔진), 나이키, 보잉(중국 주문 기대, 맥스 기재 승인 시 급등 가능), 디즈니(중국 시장 접근), 마스터카드(중국 청산 사업 진척이 더딘데 바이든 하에서 개선 기대), 골드만삭스·JP모건(중국 사업 확대), 코스트코(세금 인상 전 특별배당 가능성), 허니웰·듀폰·애벗·UPS 등이 중국 사업 비중이 있어 긴장 완화 시 혜택이 있다고 언급했다. 마이크로소프트는 틱톡 인수 무산으로 언급되었다. [비유망 업종] 석탄·석유·가스 등 에너지 업종은 정부와 무관하게 투자 불가(매력 없음)라고 명시했다. 북극 시추 허용에도 가격 메리트를 느끼지 않는다고 했다. [조건·리스크] 바이든이 법인세·자본이득세·부자 증세를 추진하면 증시 전반에는 부담이 될 수 있다는 점을 인정했다. 여론조사에서 바이든이 앞서 있어 이미 주가에 반영되었을 수 있다고 봤다. 중국 규제 지연, 정책 변화 등이 리스크다. [출연자 전망] 크레이머는 앞선 예측(트럼프 대 바이든 경쟁이 증시에 이상적)이 맞았다고 자평했다. 포트폴리오 종목 다수에 대해 긍정적 견해를 보였다.
다듬은 글
er it's to educate it's to teach it's to put it in context so call me at 00 743 CBC or tweet me at Jim Kramer sure the average has got D today we know that Dallas slipping 166 points S&B declining 66% NASDAQ backsliding 80% but you know what there's been a persistent bid as we call it underneath this market for months despite the virus despite the high unemployment despite the uneven earnings it's a puzzle it's an enigma I'm constantly trying to figure out why people keep buying can never find the answer and then I had an epiphany a real Eureka moment last night I was going over the positions in my chable trust in preparation for my monthly actionalertsplus.com membersonly Club talk this time looking at them through the lens of the election why not it's only 20 days away and you know what of the 32 stocks we own for the charal trust fully two thirds of them would do better under a Biden presidency Trump St that called me by surprise of course we weren't trying to bet on the election when we put this portfolio together over multiple years honestly I've been operating under the assumption that the market might take a hit if Biden wins because why he wants to raise the corporate tax he wants to raise the capital gains tax wants to raise the tax on rich people they own stocks hey look even if you think that's good policy it seems like I I don't know how about an obvious NE for the market given that Biden's been getting some incredible poll numbers for the last few weeks a democratic sweep has become a real possibility and I know many of you assume that's bad for stocks that is certainly what I thought or at least it's what I thought before my big Club call Revelation so why is it that two-thirds of the stocks of my travel trust would benefit from a Biden Victory the main reason simple China China let me tick them down starting with apple we know president Trump frced upon companies that do their manufacturing the people's republ companies like apple which also says of course a ton of merchandise over there makes a ton of job it's created millions of jobs here now I've been exceptionally supportive of the president's trade War I think we needed to crack down on the Chinese Communist party's bad behavior but that made life difficult for companies like apple Tim Cook the terrific CEO he's walked a tight roope between Washington and Beijing and he's done an incredible job he would make the Wenders proud but you know what with Biden in the white house he can get off the darn tight rope when you listen to Biden he sounds tougher on China than President Obama was but that's not saying much for good or ill a democratic sweep in November means a less hostile relationship with the PRC that would be very good news for Apple which is why I think the stock could and maybe even has been rising substantially on a perspective Biden Victory and apple by itself accounts for a sizable chunk of the S&P 500 sure the 12 matters I am telling the election matters more next up the chable trust owns a variety of semic do stocks but the foremost promin are broadcom Marvel Tech AMD Nvidia all which could get a sizable Boost from Biden for the same reason as Apple will broadcom and Nvidia are trying to do takeovers that require Chinese regulatory approval we know that broadcom CEO hawan is very acquisitive but since the trade War got rolling the Chinese have made it tough on Hawk tough to close those deals and the US government has treated broadcom like it's too close to the PRC hey they're getting it from both sides when it comes to I a VG o now take away the trade war and broadcom can go back to making big deals that China will be willingly sign off on as for NVIDIA well they're trying to buy arm Holdings right now okay and arm Holdings is a great it's a great acquisition but we know the Chinese Regulators drag their feet on inv last big acquisition melanox even though there there weren't any legitimate any trust concerns they could do the same with arm Holdings but a Biden presidency would make that deal a lot easier and that would be raising numbers Nvidia AMD makes some phenomenal chips and there's immense demand from China but with Trump in the White House the Chinese government's more likely to throw a ton of resources into competing with AMD a Biden Administration though oh you ratch back to trade War I think they'll have different priorities definitely Marvel Tech is a fabulous 5G play but they lost a lot of business when President Trump banned Huawei from buying americanmade components maybe Marvel get some of that business back under Biden even has done exceptionally well by courting and then succeeding to get the business of huawei's competitor since the ban Beyond Tech Beyond Tech listen to this I mean it's really amazing what do the trust own some great American companies Great American companies like like Starbucks like Nike like Boeing like Disney for Starbucks China is the biggest growth engine they're putting up tons of stores over there and they still really have them scratched the surface of the smaller tier 2 cities you know the ones with like three to four million people hey they could use a bunch of Starbucks Nike's got a consistent business in China that could be enhanced under Biden although the trade war never really stopped them from dominating a sneaker business over there Bo huh sometimes I think the Chinese government would rather build its own planes than buy them from an American company if only despite Trump I can Envision them making a huge buy from Boeing right around the the time of a Biden inauguration it's kind of like an olive branch Boeing stock would Roar if you get Max approval in Chinese orders even with the crimp of the pandemic the Walt Disney Company also does a ton of business in China they play ball with the Communist Party censors because they don't like being portrayed negatively in movies for Disney that's a small price to pay to access a gigantic Market they want Chinese people to go to the parks and watch their movies but playing ball with the Chinese government is frown upon by Trump white Hills under Biden I don't know if it would even hit the radar screen next up we own ma that's MasterCard for the China trusty this is another China winner MasterCard already has approval to begin preparations for a clearing operation in the PRC that was part of Trump's phase one trade deal however it seems kind of stillborn they're not they're not making much progress I think that's related to The Temper of the times Biden gets in there lowers the temperature I bet China stops slow playing MasterCard and put on a list whatever list there is they get on the list listen I can go on and on both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs want more Chinese business Biden makes that very likely Microsoft they were about to buy deal for Tik Tok would have been a just just fantastic for them but the Trump Administration shot them down and favor of Oracle mostly because they think China has too much influence over Microsoft and none over Oracle could have been a huge positive for Mr softi you also have some aties I mean the trust owns Costco for example we know Costco has enough money on its balance sheet to pay a huge special dividend if Biden wins dividend taxes may go up so that could spur Costco to pay that special dividend sooner not bad hey uh Wast might be able once again to sell our old newspapers to China for recycling Honeywell substantial business in China Dupont substantial business in China Abbot Labs substantial business in China United Parcel it says it offers more delivery options in China than any other company go check the website all of them do better if you ratchet down tensions now again let me be very clear I am not saying Biden would be better for the stock market as a whole the Trump White House has been very aggressive about wanting to keep the market happy I've never seen anything like it a lot of the tweets are just about how the DS doing you know I mean he loves it he wants it up he wanted the neilson's up too when he was doing The Apprentice you know but when you drill down to specific Industries I don't have much appetite for the stocks that would benefit from a second Trump term stocks like the uninvestable coal industry the oil industry the gas industry uninvestable regardless of what happens in Washington I don't care that the Arctic Refuge is open for drilling at these low prices neither should the oil companies give the polar bears a break the bottom line when it whatever I mean they got like all sorts of deer and stuff up there I want to go there if I get a chance when it comes to earn when it comes to earnings to prospects to growth I was absolutely stunned the two-thirds of the stocks and my travel trust would likely make more money under Biden than under Trump and given the Biden's way ahead in the polls maybe that's what's being reflected in the averages back during the primaries I said a Trump versus Biden race would be ideal for the stock market looks like I was more right than I knew
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