저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 수익성 확보가 핵심이며, 중국·기가팩토리3 수요와 인도량 증가로 주가 상승 여력이 있다는 낙관적 시각이다. 중국 사업 가치와 생산 확대: 중국 사업만으로 주당 300~400달러 가치가 있다고 보며, 기가팩토리3 가동 시 연 15만 대 생산이 가능하다고 언급. 인도량 전망: 지난주 인도량 9만 대가 충격적이었고, 향후 수년 내 연 100만 대 인도가 가능하며 이것이 2,000달러 목표가의 근거라고 주장. 월가 반응: 자동차 업계 임원들은 테슬라 주가 움직임을 황당하다고 보지만, 소프트웨어·배터리 시스템에서의 기술 선도는 인정한다고 전함. 시가총액 변화: 지난 일주일간 테슬라 시가총액이 매일 포드 전체 시가총액만큼 늘었다는 점을 짚음. 기관 투자자 시각: 6~9개월 전 기관들은 주가 움직임을 비웃었으나, 현재는 모델을 파고들어 2~3년 후 인도량과 펀더멘털 가치를 분석하며 입장이 180도 바뀌었다고 주장. 희소성이 핵심이라고 봄. 수익성 전망: 3분기 연속 흑자 가능성, 사이버트럭 선주문 70만 대 언급. 밸류에이션 논쟁: 목표가 격차가 매우 크며 JP모건 목표가 상향(95달러 전후 언급), 최고 목표가 2,000달러. 주가가 며칠 새 200~300달러 올라 호재가 이미 반영된 것 아니냐는 질문에, 백만 마일 배터리는 모델에 넣지 않고 이익 창출 속도가 중요하다고 답변. 유럽·중국·미국 수요 회복: 향후 유럽 수요 반등, 중국과 미국 수요를 주시해야 한다고 전망. 100만 대 인도는 2년 내 가능하다고 봄. 리스크: 코로나19 팬데믹 등으로 수요 연약성 존재. 강세·약세 논쟁이 극단적인 감정적 베어·불 스토리라고 평가.
다듬은 글
yeah I think to some extent it all starts with China I think China's worth three to four hundred dollars a share just given wishing in in Giga three as well as the demand rejected me we could see a hundred fifty thousand units per year out and the thing it really comes down to you know this delivery number we saw last week ninety thousand that was a jaw drop you put that all combined into profitable Tesla and right now the trajectory could be a million delivery units in the next few years and and that's really how we get two thousand dollar bouquets Phil I'm curious since you talked to so many automakers all day long and executives what do they make oh I'm talking about the rivals now what do they make up just the the price move in in Tesla stock oh they think it's wacky they say that there's no way that you can value this company to be where it's at right now Adam join us Jonas brings up a great point and I don't know if we can bring up a chart of Tesla over the last week in the last week he points out that Tesla's valuation has increased every single day by the entire amount of the market cap of Ford you think about that every single day its valuation is jumping about twenty five billion dollars in the last week and that's why when you talk with people in the auto industry separate from their comments about Elon Musk and there's a I think a combination of envy as well as frustration that they feel like here's a guy who just says stuff and it's wacky and it's out in left field especially about things like self-driving cars and technology that's not fully developed on the other hand there is an element of people within the auto industry who will admit that what Tesla has done here particularly when you look at the software management system and the battery system they're impressed with what Tesla has done and while they will not say that publicly they will admit that Tesla has gone out and has essentially carved out that area of the future for the auto industry and they've become the leader Dan in terms of the stock move and just listening to what Phil is talking about how much it do you think is the retail investor we talk about the retail investor pressing pressing these stocks but I have to assume this is institutional money yeah I mean that's how I could compare it I take six nine months ago many institutional investors I mean they almost were viewing it laughing that the stock was moving like it was won't even touch it with a ten-foot pole now the same investor digging deep into the model to understand where delivers could be in the next two to three years what's the fundamental value if you have a million-mile battery what does that add to the stock so of course there's a huge retail component but I can tell you smart money a 180 in terms of what I'm seeing in Tesla because it comes down to scarcity how do you plead evie mark and kind of as Phil talked about you know come down to the P or in profitability now must three-month they're doing it in a profitable way and then you have cyber truckers we've we've had 700,000 pre-orders going to 2022 Dan I don't know you know if you've ever been in an environment where the disparity on the street you know amongst price targets etc is so so wide I mean JPMorgan raised its price target yesterday to I think to 95 or something like that I mean it's and then and then we got a street high yesterday but actually you're the street high I think of 2000 but when you say China for instance is two to three hundred dollars on the stock we've seen the stock go up by that much in just the past few days I mean at what point do you start thinking we're pricing this good news in or what we can know is the good news you mentioned the unknowable of the battery but that's down the line and that's sort of in the future I don't think that you would put that into your stock model at this point there's got it around right in valuation at this point yeah right now I don't think Million Mile batteries built into the stock I sort of view it is how quickly can they get to 20 25 dollars or earnings power because that's really gonna be the wind if anything but the key now 90,000 deliveries you see profitability but then going forward you start to see Europe spiking back in terms of the man you look at China in the US if the Utah about a million deliveries in the next two years I don't think that that's back to MIT and to your point aspiring 20 years covering tech stocks that's probably the most disparity I've seen terms of bull and bearish this is an emotional bull bear story the heaters will heat but it comes down to this those delivery numbers speak for itself especially in a dark Ovid 19 pandemic and just a soft Mac or I think that was the linchpin to move the stock higher you
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