저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed의 무제한 QE와 회사채 매입 이후 주식시장 랠리가 이어지고 있으며, 강세장은 아직 유효하다고 본다. 주요 주장: 3월 23일 Fed의 무제한 QE(국채·MBS 매입) 및 저등급 회사채 매입 발표가 채권에서 주식으로의 자산 재배분을 강제해 3월 이후 멜트업이 진행 중이다. 2~3월 하락은 약세장이 아니라고 봄. 밸류에이션: 기준 PE는 과거 약 15배였으나 현재 약 22배. 연준 기준금리 0%, 10년물 1% 미만 환경에서 적정 PE 개념 자체가 무의미해질 수 있어 PE가 더 오를 가능성을 언급. 이를 '멜트업의 어머니(mother of all meltups)'로 표현하며 1999년과 유사한 버블 가능성 경고. 투자 전략: 현 시점에서 주식 보유 유지 권고. 장기 투자자는 횡보 조정을 바라지만 멜트업 지속 가능성이 큼. 이후 일부 이익 실현을 권고할 수 있으나 아직 초기 단계라고 봄. 리스크: 실적이 주가를 따라잡지 못하는 점, 코로나 재확산(15개 주 신기록, 호주·이스라엘 규제), 골드만삭스의 3분기 반등 전망 하향 등 거시 불확실성. 특정 종목 언급 없음; 전반적 시장(S&P500) 중심 견해.
다듬은 글
Let's bring in Ed Yardi, president of Yardi Research. Uh talk about uh Ed what I guess some are calling a headscratcher of a rally this morning. Good morning. Good to see you. Thank you. Well, we got 15 states. I was going to say we got 15 states with new records. Uh we got new restrictions in Australia and Israel on COVID.
Goldman's cutting their Q3 rebound forecast. Is this all about uh China jawboning or is it something else? No, I think it's to a large extent still more of the same that we started to see ever since the Fed adopted QE forever on March 23rd. Uh you remember the week before that they did QE4, announced they were going to do $700 billion of Treasury and mortgage back security purchases.
That didn't work. And within a week uh by March 23rd, they came in and did QE forever saying they would just buy treasuries and mortgage back securities open-ended. and uh they basically started a program that I called no asset left behind. They said that they were going to buy corporate bonds including some uh of the lowest grade investment grade bonds that had turned into junk.
Um and that created a tremendous pressure to rebalance out of bonds and into stocks. And so we've had um a meltup ever since March 23rd following the meltdown uh that we had just prior to that. Uh I I think the bull market is still intact. I I don't even view the sell-off that we had back in February and March as really a a bare market.
I think we're seeing the maybe the tail end of this bull market with a meltup. Uh so this you think and there's plenty left in this in on this thesis here that you have. There's more gas in this tank. How much are we into the meltup process? Well, if the if the market would take my advice and just go sideways and consolidate its gains and let earnings catch up, let the economy give us a V-shaped recovery initially, then maybe a swish.
Uh but I think uh the Fed has just poured in so much liquidity into into the market that there's a potential for something that might look like 1999 all over again. Uh remember that Prince song um about partying like it's 1999 and the market certainly has that potential. So then Ed are are you saying that the market is I guess for lack of a better word bubbleitious right now or given the fact that we are basically in an unprecedented scenario where the Fed and where rates are concerned um do we need to be thinking about valuations in a different way in general?
We we we definitely need to think about valuations uh very seriously. Look, what what should the forward PE of the S&P 500 be when the Fed funds rate is zero, where the 10-year Treasury bond yield is under 1% and the Fed is uh leaving no asset behind. Uh they're not buying equities directly, but they don't have to just by keeping interest rates near zero, they're forcing a lot of people to rebalance into into equities.
Uh so um I think there's a potential for the PE to go still higher. I mean, we in the old days before the great virus crisis, as I call it, uh we all kind of agreed that the normal fair value PE was something around 15. Um now it's uh we're at 22 and the question is what's fair value? And I don't even know that that concept makes sense in a in a market that's totally been co-opted by the central banks.
So I think uh we could be looking at a higher PE and that would certainly be consistent with what I call the mother of all meltups uh which I think is the possibility here. So Ed, then where should investors be putting their money to work? Is it equities? And if so, are there specific places that you like better than others?
Well, at this point, if you're in the equity market, I'd stay with it. Um, uh, if you're a long-term investor, u, I'd be rooting for the market to consolidate, but, uh, it may not be that considerate. It could be a continuation of a meltup, and along the way, uh, I may very well recommend taking some profits, but we'll see. It's still it's still early in the game.
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