저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁이 방산·에너지 지출을 늘려 경기에 자극이 되고, 유가 상승의 가계 부담은 제한적이라 기업 실적에 오히려 우호적이라는 주장. 주식이 계속 오르는 이유는 시장이 전쟁 이후 우호적 결과를 선반영하기 때문. 1분기 실적은 전쟁 영향이 3개월 중 1개월뿐이라 덜 반영되고, 2분기 실적과 인플레이션 충격을 주시해야 함. 가장 중요한 변수는 전쟁이며 S&P500 목표치 7,700 유지. 에너지 안보·주권 안보·사이버 안보 지출 확대 수혜 테마 제시.
다듬은 글
They will say the ever bullish Tom Lee was ever bullish, but you were also right. I mean, is there anything that that is going to stop stocks right now, Tom? Because they just keep going up. Um hi Brian, how are you? Um well, I think stocks are holding up uh because the economy's actually doing better uh in the face of this war.
And I know it sounds counterintuitive, but part of it is the defense spending, you know, at 30 billion a month. Um and it and it may end up being, you know, 60 billion a month. That's actually quite stimulative to the economy. This $20 rise in oil is only adding about 12 billion a month to the household burden.
So, in on a sort of net basis, the war is actually helping earnings right now. Yeah, and it's hard to admit this um because I do know that gasoline prices for a lot of families out there are are a major cost, especially with all the other inflation the last 5 years. But with car mileage per gallon up, if you do the math, you're looking at maybe 50 to $100 per family per month in extra cost.
Right now, again, it's not insignificant. I want to be mindful of that. But it sounds like you're saying that is not enough to damage the economy and thus damage corporate earnings and the markets. That's right, Brian. I mean, nobody wants the US to be at war. No. Um and of course, we're caught in a fog of war.
I do think one of the things we have to remember, even like going back to World War II, the stock market bottomed in May 1942, 5 months after the US entered the war, but before any US troops were even on the ground, either in the Pacific or in Europe. So, the market does have a really good way of sort of discounting outcomes.
And I think the reason it's going up is I think it's we're going to end up with a favorable outcome, which I can't say I know why, but that's what it looks like. Well, and and things could change. And I want to get your take on that cuz let's let's pray for peace and hope that that things tone down.
We did have a power poll. Wanted to hear from our viewers and all of our ex followers and whatever about how they feel. We asked a very simple question, Tom. It was what matters most for the markets right now. Is it the Iran war? Is it corporate earnings, which are starting to roll out? Or is it interest rates?
People can vote now by clicking on the QR code. How would Tom Lee vote on that? Well, I would say that the of those three, only one can create tail events on both sides, which is the Iran war. So, I think that the most important thing to watch and to really be mindful of is the war. Okay, because the other Oh, the other one's already known.
Earnings for for the first quarter won't be that affected because the war began basically at the beginning of March. So, we only have one of three months where you've got some energy disruptions. The second quarter numbers will be slightly different. So, with that in mind, how closely are you and your team going to be watching first quarter earnings versus second quarter earnings, which will maybe fully price in much of what we're seeing.
Um yeah, Brian, we're going to watch both because as you know, uh some groups in the S&P are going to be affected immediately by higher transport costs or availability of commodities. And so, we're going to get a pretty good picture of sort of that disruption that is working its way through. And of course, that gives us a hint to the inflation shock that's coming.
Um but all that being said, as you know, the the world and the US has been dealing with a series of shocks over the last 5 years. So, in some ways, I'm not saying the market's becoming desensitized to it, but it's learning to not go into a full-blown panic because of that. We're going to wrap it up, Tom.
I think you still have your 7,700 price target on the S&P. And some individual names, you got the Oneok, Texas Pacific Land, Quantum. Sounds like you're all in on the energy expansion and growth story. Yes. Uh and I think it's it's highlighting an important theme over the last few years, which is that the every country wants three types of security.
They want energy security, they want sovereign security, and they want cybersecurity. So, I think all of those are going to be good areas for where spending grows and stocks should do pretty well.
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