저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
소비자신뢰지수 급락 등 최근 경제지표를 장기적 흐름으로 가볍게 볼 수 없다고 주장하며, 월가의 낙관론(AI 성장동력, 인플레 일시적, 정책 완충)에 동의하지 않는다고 밝힘. 행동경제학과 티핑포인트를 강조. 케빈 워시 Fed 의장 인준 지연 우려, 5월 15일 파월 임기 만료 후 정치적 충돌 가능성을 경고. 스티브 리스먼은 S&P500 연말 목표 6,500을 제시하며 중간선거 연도 약세와 신임 Fed 의장 시험 가능성을 언급, 각국 중앙은행이 금리인하 기대를 걷어내고 일부 인상을 반영 중이라 진단.
다듬은 글
And more. Let's bring in somebody who knows, that is Mohamed El-Erian. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz and Interactive Brokers Steve Liesman is still with us. Mohamed, I feel like and you'll appreciate this or you'll yell at me, I don't know. The latest economic data is like the economic version of the New York Jets, your team.
Because we always have this hope and then it's just letting us down. But there is always hope. So do you view this latest round of data I don't want to say is meaningless but do you view it as long-term or dare I say transitory? So thanks for having me, Brian. I will ignore the Jets reference, although it is accurate.
I will ignore it. Um look, the image of Rick today trying to find when it was that consumer confidence was so low and going through his whole sheets and he couldn't um is one that's going to stick with me. Having said that, the survey data doesn't translate into hard data in any predictable manner. Secondly, there are three incredibly optimistic views in the marketplace when it comes to the economy.
One is even if it did, even if the consumer were to slow down, it doesn't matter. We have other growth engines, AI. Secondly, the inflation side also wasn't good today in the survey. There's the view that inflation will be transitory. And third, there's the view that we have policy offsets. So you know, I understand why the conventional wisdom is ignore um the consumer confidence number.
I wouldn't ignore them so quickly. I do believe in behavioral economics. I do believe that there are tipping points in the economy and I also think the US doesn't control outcomes as much as the market thinks. So when I put all that together, I don't automatically translate the really awful number into the economy, but I don't share the optimism that is widespread among the economic analysts on Wall Street.
Yeah, and I as we dive into that, it opens the question Mohamed of what the Fed should do especially depending on who's in charge. You know, when might Kevin Warsh actually take over and what if Powell remains de facto leader? So first we heard about the delay today and I have no reason not to believe that it's due to paperwork.
But it does mean that we're getting awfully close to the May 15th date when the chair's term ends up. I don't want us to be in a situation, Kelly, whereby the chair stays in as an acting chair and President Trump decides to have a go at the Fed. I don't think that's in anybody's interest. Um so my hope is that we'll get the nomination.
My hope that this will open the way for vote by the Senate. As you know, there's other things there including the DOJ investigation. Because the alternative is going to be a lot messier. You know, the the way I'm going to look at this and I'm certainly not going to dispute this is Wait, sounds like he agrees with you, Steve.
Yeah, to a certain point. Like Mohamed, from an economic perspective, you know, I don't know Mohamed if you heard Steve's got a $6,500 target in the S&P and so you are worried. Sounds like you guys kind of agree. I I the reason why I put that number on at the at the end of last year was was three-fold, but the two main things were President midterm election years have been terrible recently.
We the last two the last two down years out of like the last 15 were midterm election years. So we got that going against us. Also, markets have an uncanny way of testing a new Fed chair. If you look it doesn't happen very often, so it's not like the thing we talked about before, 19 out of 20. It's like four in recent memory, but the these the new Fed chairs often get some sort of real world testing.
Greenspan's case, the market crashed right after and in in in Bernanke's case the the the global financial crisis was like we had it right on the heels of him starting. So that doesn't mean that this is going to happen, but but the test now might be the stuff that Mohamed was just talking about is a political test of the Fed itself, not necessarily of Kevin Warsh and that that should be concerning.
It's it's definitely in talk you know, in terms of things that one should be cognizant of, that's that's certainly an issue. The other thing if I have a second is I put out a piece I think last week called dude, where's my rate cuts? And you know, I think the market mentality about rate cuts is is we've basically around the world all the global central banks have either priced out 50 50 plus basis points of cuts or added in 50 basis points of hikes and that's a big change I think to the to the global outlook.
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