저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제가 달러 약세·수입물가 상승·금리 상승으로 스태그플레이션 국면에 들어가며, 저금리 자금에 의존한 미국 주식·채권 시장은 하락할 것이라는 주장. 통화정책 측면: 연준이 QE와 저금리로 만든 인위적 호황이 끝나면 금리는 정상화되지 못하고, 부채가 과도해 다시 QE로 회귀할 것이라고 봄. 이 과정에서 달러가 붕괴하고 금 가격이 크게 오를 것으로 예상. 시장 구조 측면: 미국 기업들은 제조를 해외로 아웃소싱하고, 채권을 발행해 자사주 매입에 쓰며 주가를 떠받쳐 왔음. 금리가 오르면 이 구조가 끝나고 주식시장은 약세로 전환. 역사적 근거: 부시 임기 중 S&P 약 25% 하락, 2000년대 주택 버블 붕괴 사례를 들어 현 상황이 더 큰 버블이라고 주장. 자산별 전망: 미국 주식·채권·부동산은 약세, 금은 강세. 2016년 말 금 숏이 붐비던 시기가 바닥이었다는 점과 달러 롱이 쏠린 현 상황을 비교하며 달러 하락을 주장. 과거 금 가격 회복(2016년 상반기 약 20% 상승) 언급은 과거 사실 설명이며 예측이 아님. 리스크: 달러 붕괴가 아닌 완만한 흐름이 이어질 가능성이나, 시장 전체가 반대로 움직일 가능성에 대한 언급은 없음. 강한 확신 톤의 2017년 발표라 시점 기준 결과 검증이 필요. 출연자 전망: 시장 컨센서스가 틀렸다고 보며 달러 하락과 금 상승에 베팅할 것을 시사.
다듬은 글
actually fall in the United States you're gonna see rise a rise in the euro but what's going to happen is we're gonna lose access to these cheap imports either because the dollar tanks or because we impose tariffs or a border adjusted tax or something that actually makes imports more expensive so we're gonna have higher higher prices for consumer goods for Americans and we're also going to have higher interest rates and what does this mean about financial markets the financial markets have written this wait write this cheap money that is propped up the stock market the bond market how do corporations in America make money they outsource their manufacturing abroad and then they take whatever cash they have and they use it to buy back stock and where do they get all that cash they borrow it they sell bonds and they take the money and they buy stock all that comes to an end if you can outsource and now you can't sell bonds to buy stock because bond yields are rising so during this environment that we're gonna have rising inflation and a weakening dollar it's gonna be bearish for the US stock market just like it was under Bush the US stock market was about 25 percent lower when Bush left office than when he was sworn in eight years earlier right it's gonna be bearish for bonds it's gonna be bearish for real estate right but what's gonna do well in this environment it's going to be the same things that did well in the 2000s the only difference is it's not gonna end in a financial crisis you know ironically the US dollar was on the verge of collapse meaning 90 in the summer of 2008 I mean the end I mean if you remember some of these articles I mean people were talking about how dollars were as worthless as the leaves falling from the trees I mean people think the dollar is always strong I mean it was it was barely surviving in 2008 the only thing that saved it was the financial crisis of 2008 ironically but we're not going to be that lucky this time we're not going to get that financial crisis again because I think the next crisis is going to be a dollar crisis ultimately will be a sovereign debt crisis you know they make a big deal about you know a big Treasuries of risk-free you know when Trump was running for office he actually let the cat out of the bag when he mentioned that while we could just default on the debt and then after he got some pressure he changed his mind so what we're not going to default we'll just print money well printing money is worse that's just a dishonest way of defaulting and it actually imposes even harsher penalties on savers and illegitimate default so that is that is that is that is what's coming in in this next cycle because Donald Trump has inherited a bubble that from built from from Barack Obama that Dwarfs the bubble that Bush inherited from Clinton and when that Clinton bubble popped right and it popped early in the Bush administration the only reason that Bush had a second term was because the Fed was able to blow up a bigger bubble in the real estate market to create enough false prosperity to allow George Bush to get reelected but the problem was it blew up before he left office and so that made it impossible for John McCain that's why we had President Obama and of course he was elected based on a bunch of hope and change and all he did was perpetuate the bubble he had the help of Bernanke and Yellen and this is about to burst now in a big way and there is no bigger bubble there's nothing to Fed could do now because when they have to slash interest rates when they have to go to QE for there is no new source of phony wealth all the inflation is going to end up in consumer prices and yes I think it's great what inflation makes your house more valuable or when it makes your stock portfolio more valuable but they're not going to like it when it makes their grocery bills go up right or their electric bills go up because that's all it's gonna happen but meanwhile there is a way to profit from this you know when you have people that are so wrong you know and the consensus I don't think the consensus has ever been this wrong and that's a big statement right I mean I remember the housing mark I hate I mean we I helped set up a hedge fund that shorted the subprime market in in 2007 you know people made ten times their money who had invested in that hedge fund but I remember in the years leading up to that I mean everybody was wrong nobody thought real estate prices would go down Friday we're going to go up forever this stuff I was saying people thought it was impossible well the reason that that trade makes so much money is because so many people are on the wrong side there were just a few people that understood why the consensus was so wrong when it came to real estate right and you had a similar consensus in the 1990s during the New Era right where you know the dot-com era people were buying all these stocks that had no earnings but you know and they thought it would never end and of course it ended and the people who saw that there was an opportunity to make money there but now we have an even bigger overcrowded trade where the consensus is so convinced and I think that based on you know when the Fed first in qe1 and qe2 people like me were out there saying oh this is gonna be a disaster this is gonna be terrible and of course we were right it is going to be a disaster it is going to be terrible but for a while people didn't realize that because if you know when you're drunk on on alcohol you know you don't realize you know all the stupid things you're doing because you're still drunk right it's not until it wears off the following morning that you figured out so the Fed was able to you know create massive stimulus right cheap money much bigger than what that they did under under under Greenspan and so for a while people actually thought it worked I mean the reason that gold stopped rising right go got up to 1900 when they were did qe2 right the reason it fell was because people thought oh this is the end of it now it's worked and now the Fed is going to shrink its balance sheet and normalize interest rates it wasn't because the fact that QE didn't lift gold it did it was because people thought it was successful so they were betting on the end qe they were betting that all these programs were only temporary when they figure out that they're permanent that the reason interest rates are still only half a percent is because they can't go any higher because we now have so much debt it's impossible for the Fed to normalize interest rates because we have an abnormal amount of debt now we have 20 trillion dollars which is the national debt which is the tip of a huge iceberg if you look at the unfunded debt but the debt doubled under Bush and then it doubled again under Obama and so here we are there's no way that interest rates can normalize and when they've got to go back to QE for when the US economy is back in recession the markets will start to realize what a big failure QE was and because it failed they're gonna do it again right that's how the government works and then that's when you're gonna see the dollar really start to collapse you're gonna start to see a big move up in gold and in fact the the gold market really bottomed out a year ago right if you were here at this conference a year ago and if you remember every hedge fund everybody was short that was probably the most crowded trade at the end of 2015 short of all everybody was short gold and what did gold do it was up like 20 percent in the first half of the year them now the crowded trade is short currencies long the dollar the same people who are convinced that gold had nowhere to go but down are now convinced the dollar has nowhere to go but up instead of 14 15 year high why would it go up we're right about where we were when the bubble popped in 2000 and believe me the US economy is in much worse shape than it was 15 years ago it's not even close to where was and so if that bubble burst this one is going to burst in an even more spectacular way so the way to make money go back and look at what worked during that time period and now it's gonna work even better because the dollar won't stop falling until there's a real crisis because we never really had he kept falling and falling and falling in 2008 you know but it never really had a blow-off it never really collapsed it was like an orderly decline for seven years and then all of a sudden this financial crisis and everybody rushed into the dollar but this time I think the dollar is gonna fall fall fall and then it's going to just drop
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