저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 달러 약세와 금·신흥국 자산 강세를 예상하며, 미국 대신 신흥국·고배당 자산에 투자하라는 장기 약세 달러 관점의 발언. 달러 약세 및 안전자산 논리: 투자자들이 유럽·중국·남미 불안으로 미국에 돈을 몰았으나 미국도 안전자산이 아니며, 싱가포르·뉴질랜드·노르웨이·스위스·홍콩 등 재정·경상수지가 건전한 국가가 실질 안전자산이라고 주장. 신흥국 투자 논리: 신흥국은 달러 강세와 금리 인상 기대로 부채 상환 부담이 커 억눌려 있으나, 달러가 약세로 전환되면 부채 부담이 줄고 원자재 가격이 오르며 큰 반등이 나올 것이라고 봄. 브라질은 장기 최선호 시장은 아니지만 원자재 수혜 가능성으로 포트폴리오에 약 25~30% 편입했다고 언급. 금 및 금리 전망: 2000년대 이후 금 상승은 시작에 불과하며 1970년대처럼 크게 오를 수 있다고 봄. 연준의 금리 인상은 너무 늦고 약할 것이며 금리 인상 기대는 과잉 반영, 다음 주요 움직임은 금리 인하라고 주장. 미국 경제는 침체 상태이고 자산시장 버블 해소 과정에서 금리 상승과 투자자 손실이 불가피하다고 봄. 달러 기축통화 지위: 달러는 미국이 최대 채권국·수출국이었던 시절의 지위를 잃을 것이며, 이번 달러 하락 폭은 1970년대보다 클 수 있다고 전망. 1980년대 초 볼커·레이건 시기 고금리로 달러를 방어했던 방식은 현재 부채 규모상 불가능하다고 주장. 캐나다 달러 및 채권: 캐나다 달러는 저점을 형성 중이며 미국 달러 대비 강세 가능성이 있다고 봄. 다만 기타 통화 대비 약세 가능성은 인정. 전세계 채권은 금리가 너무 낮아 버블 상태이며 글로벌 채권 약세장(bear market)을 예상하여, 6~9% 배당을 주는 고배당 주식에 투자하라고 권고. 리스크: 달러 약세 전환 시점과 속도에 대한 명확한 시점 제시는 없음. 주식 상승은 달러 약세가 본격화된 뒤에야 가능하다는 조건부 논리.
다듬은 글
honey but he never really just you know went Bertil which is what I think it's going to do his time around when it gets kind of dearest near the peak so what you want to do is you want to be positioned in the real safe haven when everybody realizes that the u.s. does not the safe haven and a lot of money has flown into the u.s.
because people have been nervous about Europe they've been nervous about China nervous about South America and they've been buying the doll well they're actually jumping out of the frying pan into the fire right there are actual safe havens but they're not in the u.s. there are countries around the world that are making fewer mistakes than the United States or Europe or Japan that have more favorable you know current accounts they have budget surpluses that people are saving money they're not relying on government you know supported Ponzi scheme they have less regulation you don't have to hope that you're going to get the regulation they already don't have all the regulation you have for your market and so where you want to invest in those countries and that's what we're doing at your Pacific asset management on managing portfolios here for fresh lon wealth partners and what we do is we find the countries whether it's Singapore or New Zealand or Norway or Switzerland or Hong Kong look for the markets that are attractively valued where you get good dividend yields in currencies that are going to go up dramatically against the US dollar when this air air really starts to come out of this bubble and look at all the other markets I mean what is what is depressed the emerging market it spends the the anticipation of a stronger dollar the anticipation of higher interest rates because all these emerging economies borrow in dollars and as the dollar appreciates the cost of servicing their debt goes up the cost of repaying their debt goes up that's like a gigantic tax increase on these economies and the anticipation of even higher interest rates and a stronger dollar weighs heavily on their economy well once the dollar starts to go down it's like a giant relief it's like all of a sudden they're getting impact on all of a sudden their debt payments are lower it's easier to service the debt and of course the strong dollar has been suppressing commodity prices a lot of these countries are being exported with commodity you know some of our position in clemson socks that we own oriented here at twenty-five thirty percent in brazil I mean it's not one of my favorite long-term markets but if one of the market that's going to have a big top when people realize that the dollar is going down and commodities are going up because you have a commodity that's a country that's very linked to commodity so there's going to be a lot of opportunity it's a lot of these box or prices for the exact wrong scenario that's why I said unit you can make a lot of money when you find everybody on one side of the crater they're all wrong everybody is loaded up along the dollar right there in u.s.
sauce and there and none of the money is where they need to be but they're ultimately going to come to the realization of powers is going to play out so as the dollars was down all these emerging economies are going to be in great shape you know they're all the sudden they're going to it's going to be like a an economic food because they're you know it's like they're getting it they're getting a tax cut so you want to be invested in a lot of these markets because they've already been priced for events that are adverse but are not going to happen I people are anticipating spin rate hikes in arc and a half right there anticipating a stronger dollar that's not going to be there and in fact even if we get some rate hikes by the Fed it's going to be too little too late i mean people say ho if the Fed raises rates that's going to help the dollar instead raised rates from two thousand and three or four to two thousand eight the dollar fell the entire time the bed was raising rate by a quarter point every time they met and gold went up the whole time now they're raising rates by a quarter point a year why are people so afraid oh that's going to help us out no it's not by the time they start getting around the raising height raising rates the more instead of now looking beyond the heights to the next easing right the markets are anticipating the future they're not reacting to what's happening now and so the next major move in monetary policy is the neck ease does the US economy is basically in reception why do you think Donald Trump won if we had a stronger economy Hillary Clinton woulda won the window strong economy Donald Trump when they got the nomination for the Republican it was because the economy was so weak that he won the nomination and then the presidency but the people on Wall Street still don't realize that all these phony government statistics as they've been touting right the economy's been weakening because everything that fed is done has simply propped up asset markets at the expense of the real economy and to the extent that we even attempt to revive the real economy we have to deflate all those bubbles first you have to let interest rates go up we have to let a lot of investors lose money but that means there's also an opportunity for people who understand the real dynamic of what's going on to make money and the news that started when gold went up the 1900s in two thousand and what 11 or 12 that was just the beginning right that was kind of like the movie to go back maybe to the 19 and nineteen seventies when gold went from thirty-five dollars an ounce to 850 you know it initially went to about 200 and then it stole off to about a hundred right and everybody said okay you see it's over it was a bubble all the people have chased into gold the big move was from 100 packs up to 850 that's what all the money was made in gold stocks on that move and you know I think this decline could be even bigger because that decline in gold basically happened when the u.s.
went off the gold step that we told our creditors to dollars back by nothing he used to be backed by gold and now was sacked by nothing they mark down the value of the dollar but the dollars stayed as the world's reserve currency this time the dollar is going to lose its status as the reserve currency in fact the reason that everybody is wanted dollars is because everybody wanted to export to the United States even though we couldn't pay for those those exports with our own exports but now bounce pumps us up we don't want it we don't want to be buying for the rest of the world we don't want to give the dollar can't be the reserve currency under these circumstances I mean we became the reserve currency because we're the world's biggest creditor because of the world's biggest exporter none of those things are true today but I think when the dollar loses this status is going to have a bigger drop than the drop that had in the nineteen in the 1970s and if you remember the reason the dollar spot falling in 1980 was because we had ronald reagan and paul volcker they raised interest rates up to twenty percent 30 years Treasuries were yielding fourteen percent and our debt to gdp was just thirty percent so we were able to pay people a high enough yield to put a form in the dollar we were able to break the gold rally what can the feds do this time what can the government do this one if there's a run on the dollar how would they stop it there's no way they're powerless could they raised interest rates to a level that would make the dollar attractive note because if they raised interest rates to a high enough level to make holding dollars attractive we couldn't afford to pay the interest we'd have to default so there is no way to stop the dollar decline like we had an IPA there's no way to stop the run up in both so this is the big move and and so it's still early enough I think to get positions you know with the dollar still nearing 14 or 15 your hives it's still a good time to accumulate now of course a lot of you in our here in Canada so if you're a Canadian investor you know it's not the same perspective of the u.s.
investor because you've got Canadians all right although Lee and I do expect that the Canadian dollar in general might weaken against other currencies I don't think it's going to weaken against the US dollar amana think the canadian dollar is kind of finding a bottom committing it got knocked down a couple of days ago because there are the central bank digit about what we might be cutting rates and people but like you know that that was probably a buying opportunity in the Canadian dollar the Gideon dollar is going to rise against the US dollar but it means fall against other currencies right so you're still from Canada you still want to diversify out of the Canadian dollar but you don't want to do is I her supply into the US dollar as your head right if you're worried about the Canadian dollar don't buy the usl there are other currencies that are in much better shape but I also think that you want to buy a large own asset because we are going to have a global bear market in debt right interest rates around the world we're too low that means bonds all around the world are too expensive so to the extent that you want to invest what you want to get incomes you've got to look for income generating stocks that companies that will take the dividend yields and they're out there now you just have to know where in the world to find them right but there are plenty of good stocks that we buy our portfolios that has six seven eight nine percent if Emile's they're there and they're there in currencies that I think you're going to appreciate but the real key is going to be when the stocks go up because once you get into a dollar bear market the impact that has on foreign equity is enormous
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