Mohamed El-Erian Explains Why the Fed will Raise Rates Again!! May 26, 2023

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결론: 미국 금리는 다시 오를 가능성이 크며, 연준의 뒤늦은 대응으로 인해 정책 실수와 경기침체 위험이 함께 커지고 있다. [미국 국채 및 금리] 국채가 강세를 보이지 않고 금리가 상승 중이며, 2년물 금리는 최근 3주 남짓 동안 90bp 상승해 약 4.6% 수준이다. 11거래일 연속 상승했고 5월 11일 약 3.9%에서 60~70bp 이상 올랐다. 시장은 연준의 추가 인상과 그 뒤 인하 반전을 반영해 장short 금리가 역전되는 모습이다. [인플레이션] 인플레이션은 끈적하며 특히 서비스 부문이 과열되어 있다. 연준이 늦게 대응해 인플레이션이 상품 부문에서 서비스 부문으로 옮겨갔고, 이는 금리 인상에 덜 민감하고 임금 인플레이션 가능성을 높인다. [부채한도 협상] 부채한도 문제는 결국 해결될 것으로 보지만 정치적 불신 확대, 정책 집중력 저하, 미국 경제의 예측 가능성 약화라는 장기 비용이 남는다. 국채의 위험 회피 자산 특성에 대한 신뢰도 약화되고 있다. [달러 및 지정학] 러시아 제재 이후 일부 국가가 달러를 우회하는 결제 체계를 모색하면서 달러 독점 지위와 미국 부채시장 의존에 대한 우려가 커지고 있다. 원/달러 환율은 금리차 변화로 달러 강세 쪽으로 움직였다(11095→107 계열 수치는 방향 참고용). [영국] 영국 2년물 금리가 이번 주 54bp 올랐다. 영국은 재정정책 실수가 아닌 예상 통화정책(영란은행 인상)과 근원 인플레이션 상승이 원인이며, 주택담보대출 금리가 이미 상승 중이다. 영란은행 최종금리는 5.5% 수준으로 반영되어 있다. [경기 전망] 미국은 제조업은 둔화 신호, 서비스는 과열 신호로 혼조이다. 정책 실수가 없으면 미국은 스태그플레이션을 피할 수 있으나, 영국과 유럽은 스태그플레이션 위험이 더 크다. [연준 전망] 연준은 6월 인상 가능성이 높다고 본다. 이상적으로는 2% 인플레이션 목표를 재고하고 더 높은 목표를 암묵적으로 허용해야 하지만, 데이터 의존성과 신뢰도 문제로 인상할 가능성이 크다. 이후 경기 둔화로 인해 연말 이전 인하 반전이 있을 수 있다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로 금리 상승과 연준의 6월 인상을 예상하며, 장기적으로는 경기침체 위험을 경고한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Al Aaron of Queen's College Cambridge Mohammed what a privilege to round out this week with you and what an interesting week it's been can I just start in the treasury market yields aren't falling treasuries aren't rallying yields are rising treasury to sell enough Muhammad what's going on there what's going on is that the marketplace is recognizing what you and I have spoken about is that inflation is sticky and that the service sector in particular in the U.S economy is red hot so we are pricing in more fed action and we're also pricing in ironically John that this will end up being a Fed policy mistake so in addition to the yields moving up we've got a two-standing version now that's at 75 basis point so you're getting the sense that the FED is going to have no choice but to raise to hike rates even more but that will end up risking a recession because the FED has started so late and the marketplace has now embraced that possibility we were just reflecting on the debt ceiling Saga at the moment Muhammad how different is this one to the one that you lift and breathe at Pimco 10 years ago with five percent CPI it's different John because of the working assumption at that time we did not have the working assumption that this will get resolved most of us in the marketplace assume that this will get resolved it doesn't mean there aren't longer term costs there are there's three in particular one is your road trust even more in policy makers domestically do is a divert politician away from the work they're supposed to be doing in order to enhance the growth enhance productivity and third you signal to the rest of the world that the U.S economy is less predictable so you know even though we're going to resolve this and I believe we are going to resolve this there is longer term damage being created I want to borrow a phrase of yours risk mitigation characteristics do you think this arose the risk mitigation qualities of treasuries it does drone because it comes on top of many other things you know countries third countries what Jared Cohen of Goldman Sachs called geopolitical swing States they can go either way um are getting worried about Reliance on the U.S debt markets about Reliance on dollars and unfortunately the very well-intentioned and necessary sanctions on Russia I want to stress they were necessary and they're well-intentioned has pushed Russia into creating a small ecosystem as cumbersome as it is um that bypasses the dollar so now countries are thinking well maybe it's not as non-feasible as we thought initially so the last thing we want to be doing in the U.S is giving people excuses to look for little pipes that go around both the dollar as a result of currency and not debt markets well you introduced the US dollar so let's go there do you think the dollar price is over now that the dollar started running it again Mohammed now I say that's hung in shape but we have had quite a move from 110.95 on The single currency all the way back down to 107.

02. correct because the interest rate differentials have moved in favor of the us over the last month John you know this we've moved 90 basis points higher on a two-year in in just over three weeks 90 basis points it's amazing I'm looking at the moves right now we're almost at 460 on a two-year so this is the 11th day the yields have been climbing consecutively 11 days straight I go back to about 390 on May 11th so that's something like 70 a 60 70 basis point move just over that period Muhammad I was looking at the UK guilt Market as well this week the two year there of 54 basis points this week now Mohammed I think some people reflecting on the UK and the experience of September October time and a guilt crisis if we can call it that do you think there are maybe things starting to come together that remind you of what happened in that period well there's some fundamental differences as you know John back then it was a fiscal policy mistake today is in response to not just headline inflation not falling as fast as people had expected but core inflation going up so there's now a recognition that the bank of England is is going to have to hike and the market has priced in a peak rate of five and a half percent so it's it's not fiscal driving this it is anticipated monetary policy that's issue number one issue number two is that this is not viewed as a crisis this is viewed as a chronic adjustment to higher inflation and therefore and this is important therefore the longer term growth effects are going to be are going to be more detrimental um mortgage rates already moving up Nationwide announced this morning 45 basis points increase in their mortgage rates so this is this is going to make stagflation more likely than you than than not in the UK unfortunately there's the word stagflation just for the UK or for others too in Europe as well given the disappointing data we've had out of China so you know you know you don't have an 8.7 percent headline inflation it's lower in Germany it's lower in France now we know that the German economy is already in recession so yeah you may get stag inflation light the US is the one that should avoid it unless we get policy mistakes so the US is is the is the outlayer and all this because it's domestic economy is much more Dynamic much more resilient and and also much hotter if you like that elsewhere Mohammed I just wonder how you'd characterize the inflation growth mix then in the United States given the data we've had we've talked about this a few times both online and offline you look at manufacturing data worldwide right now it's screaming down turn cut rates you look at Services it's screaming hike what is the kind of growth inflation mix You're Expecting now so the inflation one is very straightforward that because the Fed was late inflation went from a few items to the good sector and then got embedded in the service sector and that has two results one is it makes inflation less sensitive to interest rate increases and two it makes wage inflation more likely so when you get that migration and that's why economists hate a central bank falling behind when you get that migration you get a dualistic economy because interest rates will hit the good sector starting with housing but will not impact the service sector as much so that's what you get for a while and then it depends on what central banks do um and that's why John the yield curve is inverting more because the market strongly believes that the FED is going to hike once maybe twice more and then it's going to have to reverse its Heights later in the year because it's gonna this will prove to be too much for the economy as a whole final question then where are you for June and Beyond on the FED now so John what they should be doing at you know is they should be recognizing that the monetary framework is not fit for purpose they should be recognizing that the inflation Target of two percent is the wrong inflation Target and they should be implicitly aiming for higher inflation Target until the time comes when they have the credibility to change inflation pocket that's what they should be doing and if that's the case they would not hike but I think this fed will hike because it is overly data dependent and the data clearly showed them data clearly says hike even though your measures your policy measures have a lag in terms of effects and this is also a fed that's so worried about this credibility that it's not going to be wanting to fall behind even more in the perception of people and it doesn't have the confidence to stand up and say look we operate with a lag and we don't want another policy mistake so just to be clear as things stand just to wrap it up I know we've still got CPI still to come before that decision payrolls as well but as things and right now using their hike in June I do and the market thinks that Harkins in June