저자: MohnishPabrai · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏의 시장 타이밍 능력을 David Einhorn 서한을 인용해 높게 평가하며, 버크셔가 현금을 쌓고 있어 시장 혼란 가능성을 본다는 해석을 소개함. Pabrai 본인은 S&P나 빅7을 사지 않고 개별 종목을 고르며, 거시 예측은 의미 없다는 입장. 3년간 주가가 투자가격 이하라면 밸류에이션이 틀렸을 가능성이 크다고 봄. 거시 지표나 전쟁·AI·관세 같은 헤드라인보다 기업 가치와 안전마진에 집중하라고 강조.
다듬은 글
But, you know, Buffett is selling Bank of America and Apple, and the S&P right now has, I guess, a pretty high price/earnings ratio. I don't even know exactly what percentile it is. And, you know, even in this context, everything is driven by these massive macro trends, like AI or something like that.
I'm interested in your thoughts on the overall macro situation, as well as the future of small-cap stock picking in the US domestic market. Yes, I really liked David Einhorn's recent letter, where he wrote about how Buffett always says that he doesn't try to guess the right moment in the market and never focuses on timing.
But David noted that he was the best timing master he knew. There is no one better than Warren at this. He closed his partnership in '69, and then Charlie and everyone else suffered losses, and Warren did not. If you trace the history of what Warren did, you will find that he usually acted flawlessly, such as when buying Gen Re with overvalued Berkshire shares and so on.
He was very smart about it. I think Berkshire is probably building up its "dry powder," meaning cash reserves. Maybe he thinks the market is a little overheated, but they might get a chance to invest 100 billion or more in something worthwhile. He seemed to be making the observation that market disruption was inevitable.
He said he doesn't know if it will happen next year, but he thinks the likelihood within 10 years is high. For example, this is the kind of comment he made. That's how I think about it.
From my perspective, I pick stocks, so it doesn't really matter to me where the S&P is, because I don't buy the S&P, and I don't buy the Magnificent Seven, etc. But I think that yes, the world always has 50,000 stocks, and there are always some individual things happening to individual companies.
There will always be exceptional opportunities. If someone is willing to look, even in the most overheated markets, opportunities will be found. And especially now we have this market in the form of a "barrel," where many things are left behind, and some things are growing rapidly. I don't find many, but I find enough to stay invested.
We don't have many "baskets" for investments. If you look at our billion or so in management, this is the most bizarre distribution that we have: about 70% is in Turkey, maybe another 20 or 25% in coal. So, it's 95% at the moment. The other 5% don't really matter, not really relevant.
Within Turkey, in fact, this 70% falls on three stocks. This is the distribution we have now, and I wouldn't want to change anything.
I am, and thank you for taking the time. I just have a quick question. In the book *Investor Dgando*, you wrote that if you own stocks and after 2-3 years they don't perform, it's probably time to move on. So I'm wondering if you still think that way in general, and specifically how you feel about some factor going out of style, which perhaps explains why the promotion isn't working even if the business is growing.
Well, I think one of the advantages of the investment business is that you can succeed even with a high error rate. The best of us will be wrong one in three times about what we think a company will do. Many of us will be wrong half the time or even more often. Stocks may stay put, they may fall, or stocks may not reach the level where we think they should be valued. So there are many reasons why the error rate is so high.
If you have invested money in something and after 3 years the price remains at the investment level or below, I think there is a good chance that your valuation was wrong. It's not 100% likely, but I think you need to do a holistic analysis of what could be happening. Maybe it's still underrated. Maybe the market needs more time, and so on. That's fine, but I think in that case there's a significant chance that there are certain factors you may not understand that are affecting the intrinsic value.
There is no better master of market timing than Warren Buffett. But there is one important difference: Buffett manages hundreds of billions of dollars. Therefore, he should think about market conditions before placing such a large amount of capital.
As Monish Pabrai says, macro indicators don't matter. Our job is not to predict interest rates, wars, elections, artificial intelligence, or the next geopolitical event. Our job is to find great companies at attractive prices.
Even the best stock-picking experts are only right two out of three times. Many successful investors are only right about half the time. But if you try to predict the market based on macro events, you can easily be wrong three times out of three. So stop worrying about wars, AI, tariffs, and geopolitical headlines. Focus on understanding the business, valuing it correctly, and buying with a margin of safety. In the long run, that's what creates wealth, not trying to guess the next headline.
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