저자: 미상 · 외국인
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조엘 그린블랫의 'The Little Book That Still Beats the Market'를 요약한 영상. 이익수익률(earnings yield)과 자본수익률(return on capital)을 결합한 매직포뮬러로 저평가 우량주를 고르고, 미스터 마켓의 감정을 이용하며, 20~30개 분산 투자하고 1년 이상 보유해 세금을 줄이라는 내용. 8번 교훈은 저평가 자산을 사는 심리적 인내의 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
Here is full the little book that still beats the market summary. By the time you finish this video, you will possess a mental framework that allows you to crush the average investor without ever needing a degree in finance or a Wall Street office. You will understand how to spot a bargain in a sea of overpriced junk and how to keep your cool when everyone else is panicking because they do not understand the underlying value of what they own.
We have stripped away all the complex math and the boring academic jargon to give you the pure core lessons of this legendary strategy so you can start building real wealth today. This summary is built from the ground up to be so simple a sixth grader could understand it but so powerful that it can change your entire financial future if you apply it with discipline.
There are exactly nine core lessons waiting for you in this breakdown and each one builds on the last to create a complete system for winning in the stock market. I have to warn you that lesson 8 is the one most people fail at, even though it is the most important part of the entire strategy because it deals with the psychology of losing money.
If you miss that specific lesson, you will likely lose heart and quit right before the strategy starts to pay off, which is exactly why most people never get rich in the markets. So, make sure you stick around for that because it is the secret sauce that keeps the whole system from falling apart when things get messy.
Lesson one is that you must view a stock as a piece of a real business rather than just a ticker symbol moving up and down on a screen. Imagine there is a man in your neighborhood named Bob who owns a very successful hardware store that has been around for 20 years. Bob decides he wants to retire and move to a tropical island.
So, he offers to sell you his entire business for $100,000. Before you say yes, you look at his books and see that after paying for the tools and the rent and the employees, the store makes $20,000 in clear profit every single year. If you buy the store for $100,000 and it gives you $20,000 back every year, you're getting a 20% return on your money.
In the world of investing, we call this the earnings yield because it tells you exactly how much profit you're getting for every dollar you spend to buy the business. If Bob wanted $1 million for that same store, your $20,000 in profit would only be a 2% return, which is a terrible deal because you could get more interest just sitting in a bank account.
The lesson here is that you always want to buy a business that gives you a high earnings yield because it means you're getting a lot of profit for a very cheap price. Most people forget this and buy stocks just because the price is going up without ever checking how much profit the business actually makes.
Lesson two is about the return on capital, which is the best way to tell if a business is actually a highquality operation or just a lucky one. Think about two different pizza parlors located on the same busy street in the middle of a big city. The first pizza parlor spends $100,000 on fancy ovens and expensive marble counters and neon signs, but they only make $10,000 in profit at the end of the year.
The second pizza parlor is much smaller and only spends $10,000 on a basic oven and a wooden counter, but they also make $10,000 in profit because their pizza is better and people wait in line for it. The first shop is only making a 10% return on the money they invested into the business while the second shop is making a 100% return on their capital.
The second shop is a much better business because it is efficient and can grow much faster with much less money. When a company has a high return on capital, it usually means they have a special advantage like a great brand or a secret recipe that competitors cannot easily copy. If you find a company that can take a dollar and turn it into 50 cents of profit, every single year you have found a gold mine that will grow your wealth exponentially over time.
Lesson three is the heart of the book, which is combining these two ideas into what is known as the magic formula. The magic formula is a simple ranking system that looks for companies that are both cheap and high quality at the exact same time. Imagine you're at a school and you want to find the best athletes to build a championship team.
First, you rank every student by how fast they can run, and you give the fastest student a score of one and the slowest student a score of 3,000. Then, you rank every student again, but this time, you rank them by how many push-ups they can do to measure their strength. To find your superstars, you simply add the two scores together and look for the students with the lowest combined numbers.
A student who is the 10th fastest and the 20th strongest will have a total score of 30, which is much better than a student who is the fastest runner but the very weakest in the school. The magic formula does this with stocks by ranking them based on their earnings yield to see if they are cheap and then ranking them by their return on capital to see if they are good businesses.
By buying the companies that are near the top of both lists, you're stacking the deck in your favor because you're buying the best businesses at the lowest prices. Lesson four introduces us to a character named Mr. Market, who is your emotional and highly unpredictable business partner. Imagine you own a small stake in a grocery store with a man named M.
Market, who is a very moody individual. Every single day, without fail, Mr. Market shows up at your front door and shouts out a price at which he is willing to either buy your share or sell you his share. Some days, Mr. Market is feeling incredibly happy and optimistic about the future of the world.
So, he shouts a very high price because he thinks the grocery store will make billions. Other days, Mr. Market wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and feels like the world is ending. So, he gets scared and shouts a very low price because he just wants to get rid of his shares. The secret to winning is to realize that Mr.
Market is not there to guide you or tell you what the store is actually worth. He is only there to serve you by offering you prices that are sometimes completely ridiculous. If he offers you a price that is much higher than what the business is actually worth, you should happily sell your shares to him and take his money.
If he gets scared and offers you a price that is much lower than what the business is worth, you should ignore his fear and buy as much as you can from him. Most investors make the mistake of letting Mr. Market's mood swings dictate their own emotions, which leads them to buy when things are expensive and sell when things are cheap.
Lesson five explains why professional money managers and big Wall Street banks usually fail to beat the market over the long run. Imagine a professional chef who is hired to cook for a very large and picky crowd of people. Even though the chef knows that a unique and bold dish would taste better, he is afraid to cook it because if the crowd does not like it, he will get fired immediately.
Instead, he cooks the exact same boring chicken dish that every other chef is cooking because if it tastes average, no one will blame him for being different. Professional investors have the same problem because they are constantly worried about looking stupid in front of their clients or their bosses.
If they buy a stock that everyone else is buying and it goes down, they can just say that the whole market went down and they will keep their jobs. But if they use a strategy like the magic formula and buy stocks that look ugly or unpopular, they might lose their jobs if those stocks do not go up right away.
Because individual investors like you do not have to answer to a boss or a group of angry clients, you have a massive advantage. You are free to be different and follow the math even when it feels uncomfortable, which is the only way to achieve results that are better than average. Lesson six is about the necessity of patience and why the magic formula often stops working for long periods of time.
Imagine you are a farmer who has discovered a special type of seed that produces three times as much corn as any other seed. You plant the seeds and you know that over 10 years you will be the richest farmer in the county. But in the first two years there is a weird weather pattern that makes your special corn grow slowly.
All the other farmers are laughing at you because their standard corn is growing faster than your special corn during those first two years. Most people would get frustrated and pull up their special seeds to plant the regular ones just to fit in with the neighbors. The magic formula is exactly like those special seeds because there are periods of 2 or 3 years where it will actually perform worse than the general market.
This is actually a good thing because if the formula worked every single month of every single year, everyone would use it. If everyone used it, the bargain prices would disappear and the formula would stop working forever. The reason the formula continues to work is because it is just hard enough to follow that most people give up on it right before it starts to pay off.
You must have the stomach to wait through the lean years knowing that the math will eventually win out in the end. Lesson seven teaches you how to actually build your portfolio so you do not put all your eggs in one basket. Imagine you are betting on a series of coin flips where you have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning every time.
If you bet all of your money on just one flip, you might lose everything because of bad luck, even though the odds were in your favor. But if you make 100 small bets over time, the math will eventually ensure that you come out ahead because the luck balances out. The book suggests that you should not just buy one or two stocks from the magic formula list, but instead build a collection of 20 to 30 companies.
You should buy a few stocks every month until you have a diversified basket of businesses across many different industries. This protects you in case one specific company has a disaster like a factory fire or a massive lawsuit that no one could have predicted. By owning 30 of the cheapest and highest quality companies, you are essentially owning a mini version of a supercharged market that is tilted in your favor.
Lesson eight is the special lesson I mentioned earlier, which is about the emotional discipline required to buy things that look broken. When you look at the list of stocks the magic formula tells you to buy, you will likely see companies that have scary headlines in the news. Maybe a company just lost a big customer or their industry is currently out of favor with the public.
Imagine walking into a clothing store and seeing a pile of high-quality designer jackets that are being sold for 80% off because the store is moving to a new location. A normal person would be thrilled to find such a bargain and would buy as many as they could fit in their car. But in the stock market, when people see a price drop 80%, they get terrified and assume that the jackets must be made of poisonous material.
Your brain is wired to feel pain when you see your account balance go down. And it is wired to want to run away from things that other people are criticizing. To succeed with this strategy, you must train yourself to be a cold and calculated shopper who loves a good sale. You have to trust that if the business is still making a high return on capital and the price is incredibly low, the market will eventually realize its mistake.
The pain you feel when a stock price drops is just a trick your mind plays on you and the only way to beat it is to focus on the underlying value of the business instead of the fluctuating price. Lesson nine covers the practical rules for selling your stocks and managing your taxes so you keep more of what you earn.
The government wants a piece of your profit every time you sell a stock and the amount they take depends on how long you held that stock. If you sell a stock that you have owned for less than a year, the tax man takes a huge bite out of your sandwich, which can be as high as 35% or more. But if you wait until you have held the stock for at least 1 year and one day, the tax man takes a much smaller bite, which is usually only 15%.
The magic formula strategy suggests that you should hold your stocks for exactly one year before selling them to see if they are still on the bargain list. If a stock has gone up a lot and is no longer a bargain, you sell it and buy a new one from the list. If the stock is still a bargain, you can keep holding it or sell it and replace it with an even better one.
By following the simple rule of selling after one year, you minimize your taxes and you also avoid the temptation to trade too often, which usually leads to making mistakes. Consistency and simplicity are the keys to long-term success because they prevent you from overthinking and making emotional decisions.
Now that you have the full strategy, you have everything you need to start your journey toward financial independence. Remember that the market is a giant voting machine in the short term, but it is a weighing machine in the long term. If you keep buying businesses that weigh a lot in terms of profit but cost very little in terms of price, you will eventually become very wealthy.
The only thing standing between you and success is your ability to stay the course when everyone else is running for the exits. Please leave a comment below and let us know what massive book you want us to condense for you next. Make sure to subscribe to the Skip Boring Books channel so you never miss a deep dive into the world's most important knowledge.
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