저자: Brenda·Omar · 외국인
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이 영상은 피터 린치의 '월가의 영웅(One Up on Wall Street)' 7장을 바탕으로 기업 유형 6가지를 정리한다. 투자 아이디어는 신비한 주식 팁처럼 다루며 열린 마음으로 반박 근거를 찾아야 하고, 리서치·재무분석·채널체크를 거쳐 투자 논리를 세워야 한다고 강조한다. 제품 기여도 분석도 중요하다. 치폴레 사례처럼 특정 제품이 매출·이익에 얼마나 기여하는지 확인해야 한다고 한다. 대기업도 큰 변화를 만들 수 있다(구글 자율주행, 애플 아이폰 사례)는 점을 언급한다. 고성장주(Fast growers)는 선호 유형이며 매출과 이익이 함께 성장하는지, 확장 여지가 있는지 확인하라고 한다. 아마존, 우비퀴티, 텍사스로드하우스가 예시로 나온다. 저성장주(Slow growers)는 린치가 싫어하지만, 가격이 충분히 싸면 배당주로서 매력이 있다는 의견이 나온다. 템퍼피딕이 예시다. 스토왈트(Stalwarts)는 연 10~12% 안정 성장 기업으로 애플, 나이키가 예시다. 경기순환주(Cyclicals)는 경기·수급에 따라 실적이 변하며, 하락기에 싸게 사되 생존 여부를 확인해야 한다. 자동차, 홈디포·로우즈가 예시다. 턴어라운드(Turnarounds)는 위기 후 회복 가능성을 보고 투자하는 전략이며, 폭스바겐 배출가스 스캔들 후 투자 사례가 소개된다. 자산주(Asset plays)는 보유 자산 가치보다 낮게 거래되는 기업으로, 버크셔해서웨이, 블랙베리 특허 사례가 언급된다. 결론은 기업을 유형별로 분류해 기대치와 분석 방법을 정하라는 것이다.
다듬은 글
welcome to episode 5 of level up and today we're going to be talking about the different types of companies and if you're falling along feel free to grab a copy of this book it's Peter Lynch's one up on Wall Street and we're gonna be focusing on his writings in Chapter 7 of this great book so one of the things that Peter Lynch says in his book is that when you find a great idea using your consumers edge or your professionals edge you should basically treat it like it's a mysterious stock tip um er what do you think he means by that I think he wants us to keep an open mind assume that you don't know anything and then think of it as a puzzle that you have to solve without much like just go in with an open mind and figured out what it is I would say he's asking us to be skeptical you know try to poke holes in this idea as much as possible to see what could be the downfall of this company right not getting married to an idea just because you've come up with it I think he's also reinforcing this idea that idea generation is merely the start of the investment process that in the past I think we've all known people who have just taken an idea and just like gone ahead and bought the stock and that's really kind of a rookie mistake that is really just the beginning and you need to look into this in more detail yeah absolutely develop a process around it I'm sure Peter Lynch has his own process and both of you have your own process but one way to go from idea to investment is to have this process so for me for example I take an idea I start researching it online look at messages messaging boards look at review sites look at their website right amazon.com if it's a product and then you do an even more deep dive right financial analysis read the 10k read the quarter the last quarterly statements listen to the earnings calls and do more due diligence and then lastly do channel checking right so call up their suppliers and their customers people who aren't their customers and ask them why all this deep-dive due diligence that is required into making an investment thesis right so that's a big that's a big thing making an investment thesis throughout the time that you're researching this company doing analysis on this company you develop why you think you should invest in it and most importantly develop why you think you shouldn't be investing it right so I think those are the key points that need to happen after an idea generation to get conviction to buy the company another point that Peter Lynch makes in this chapter is if you're going to buy a company based on a product that it's really important that you figure out how much that product will contribute to a company's bottom line what are you can you elaborate a more on what he means by that yeah let us take some of the big companies that we know in life right like Chipotle their main product is they sell burritos in a store right that is vast majority of their revenue they also are trying new concepts like Asian food or pizza like the contributions of these other stores are essentially zero to the bottom line so you just because you fell in love with their pizza chain you are not gonna go buy Chipotle you have to figure out what is the percentage of this particular products contribution to the company's revenue as well as the company's earnings and then go from there another point that Peter Lynch mates in one of our Wall Street is that big companies usually make small moves now what do you what do you make of that statement and do you agree with it it is a very good statement and that is the consensus for the most part big companies don't make big moves but I don't think that is always true right for example I'll give an example of Google today they are a big company but they are also they have a huge self-driving arm which everybody thinks is gonna be a whole new industry so it is always kind good to be aware of the differences when a difference exists where a big company which already has huge potential in their current business like for example Apple with iPods could actually be building a even bigger business that was the iPhone okay let's now talk about the six categories of companies and specifically Peter Lynch has laid these out as fast growers slow growers stalwarts cyclical z' turnarounds and asset plays and for each of these let's have kind of a lively round-robin discussion about each of these types and specifically let's talk about whether you personally invest in these companies and if you have any advice on on these companies are these types of companies let's start Brenda first with fast cars yeah this is my favorite category of company I try to target this category of investment because to me it seems with my limited access to information and very long term time horizon and investing this is the quote unquote easiest category for me to invest in although you know maybe other people will disagree so I definitely try to target the fast growers yeah me too I love fast growers what advice do you have for our viewers on investing in fast growers I would say when you invest in fast growers be cognizant of the top and the bottom line growing at the same time right because if you if a company is growing revenues very fast and that's not translating into earnings and that might be something you need to look into and into why that's happening maybe the company's reinvesting that money to keep growing which is fine another thing is going back to this idea of investing in companies that have a lot of room to expand right if if they have a lot of room to expand then they can grow into the exponential growth that you're saying otherwise they they could be heading down the wrong path I'm ready any thoughts are investors yeah like I mean fast growers are always good if you can find them at a reasonable price the problem with fast growers is as soon as it is known that these are fast growers the price goes up and then your price versus value becomes really hard to balance out and decide if it is a good buy great thoughts I think it'd also be helpful if we gave some examples of fast fast growers and at least at the time of this viewing in 20 so on my list I think some popular fast growers right now include companies we've talked about such as Amazon another fast grower is ubiquity and one that's probably more down-to-earth is Texas Roadhouse that's like a you know brick-and-mortar restaurant it's probably not growing at 30 plus percent but it's growing at a steady clip okay next let's talk about slow growers and Peter Lynch is pretty clear that he dislikes investing in these companies Armour do you ever invest in slow growers or no growers rarely sometimes the slow growers prices especially in a bull market sometimes the slow growers prices are so low that you could still buy them and make 2x or 3x your investment then they actually become a good investment yeah I know while that didn't you invest in a coal company that was definitely a no grower I did and and it was at the during 2016 where this company was paying about thirty five percent in dividends and it was very clear that they have enough contracts to pay this dividend for the next few years five six and so we bought them at a really cheap price around $5 and because it was really cheap the price also went up to $15 but they still are paying that 30% dividend at the original price so we have done really well in our club that would be a big reason for someone to invest in a slow girl right generally their dividend paying stocks and that's a more predictable income for investors great great points guys just for the viewers an example of a slow grower would be a company like tempur-pedic all right let's switch gears and let's talk about stalwarts armor can you first tell our viewers what a sword is whether you invest in them and could you give folks advice on how to make money as forwards sure Stallwood in Peter Lynch's definition is a company with medium growth but it is a very stable company that has a long track record and who continue the company continues to keep earning that 10 to 12 percent growth irrespective of what the market conditions are I mean these do change but one example could be a company like Apple a company with very strong brand that are still growing the revenue at ten or twelve percent every year they usually will do that irrespective of what the market conditions are based on how much presence they have in terms of the cellphone and the services that they sell on top I think another example the star would be a clothing company a sports clothing company like Nike next let's talk about cyclical Armour what is a cyclical do you invest in them and what advice do you have for folks on investing supposed circular cyclicals are companies whose fortunes change based on either the government policies are how the market is doing overall based on supply and demand the classic examples are companies and say energy industry right oil and coal like they are come our mining industries these are commodity businesses where sometimes the demand for outstrips the supply and the company does really well in terms of growing earnings and then since it is a commodity business as soon as they start what we're producing the price falls a lot and then the company is not making much money and then they have to get through that portion the thing to remember about cyclicals are think of it as a tied everything kind of goes up and everything goes down so when it is at the down phase you will be able to find really good companies for a really cheap price the important thing to keep in mind is to ensure that these companies can survive the downward phase because lots of companies go down and never come up and you don't want to be caught with one of them I think there are some other pretty popular examples of cyclical x' so it Peter Lynch talks about this car manufacturers or cyclical z' because when the the economy is weak people are not generally going out and buying new cars other examples include home depot or lowes during recessions again people are not probably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars fixing up their home next up let's talk about turnarounds Brenda what does a turnaround do you invest in them and what advice do you have for people are interested in these types of companies so turnarounds or companies that are generally they're doing very well for a really long time then a big event happens and all of a sudden the company doesn't do well I do try to invest in turnarounds because I think there are really good opportunities to get in at a very low price into a really good company if I think that the company will survive whatever event or that they're going through one example of it a big one that everyone might know is Volkswagen Volkswagen had a huge scandal a few years back where they were cheating emissions testing in the US and in Europe with some of their with millions actually of their cars and so the company completely got hammered and I took a look at it and I was like Volkswagen is the biggest car manufacturer in the world and do I think that they're gonna right this wrong and come out of it swinging and the fact was that their balance sheet was very healthy and I think a lot of people got punished for the wrong that they did to the environment and to people who were buying these cars and I had very high hopes for it so that was a turnaround example that I actually invested in next let's talk about asset plays Omar what's an asset play and in the 21st century is it still possible to make money in assets less I think you can still make money in a place at a high level and asset play is you buy a company for less than the price of the asset that the company holds lots of times this happens because when let us take a classic example Berkshire Hathaway and they have bought companies over the last 50 years and some of those companies that they bought are still carried on the book value of what they paid like 50 years ago but the companies have grown enormously larger and more profitable like Geico so so you would rarely find companies especially in real estate industry where the company actually wants more land and assets than water the selling for today it is getting hotter and hotter but you can rarely find one I think another example and again this is admittedly very difficult it's very technical but there are a lot of tech companies these days that have patents to technologies and so that type of intellectual property could be the modern-day version of one of these a set plays a company that comes to mind company that I've completely written off as blackberry but it turns out that you know even though their business failed like the patents that they owned we're actually quite valuable so just one one note is that we talked about six different companies and it's important to note that any giving company can be in multiple categories or in their lifetime they can go from one type to another type so let's wrap this up in conclusion I think the key takeaways are that you should do your homework and that for any giving company you should be getting into the habit of categorizing the company so that you know what to expect and how to analyze that company thanks very much for watching this episode to level up if you enjoyed it please subscribe and share it with a few friends thank you
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