저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 짐 크레이머는 2023년 2월 시장 조정을 매수 기회로 보며 강세장 전환 가능성을 주장했다. [시장 전망·투자 전략] 하락일을 강세장에서의 매수 기회로 보고, 약세장 때처럼 하락을 사고 상승을 파는 방식에서 벗어나 실제 투자로 전환해야 한다고 주장했다. [강세 근거 1: 달러 약세] 지난 10월 이후 달러가 예상외로 약세로 돌아섰고, 이는 해외 사업을 하는 미국 기업에 큰 호재이며 하락 여지가 더 남아 있다고 봤다. [강세 근거 2: 장기금리] 연준이 단기금리를 올리더라도 장기금리는 낮게 안정돼 있어, 6~12개월이 아닌 5~10년 투자자에게는 여전히 주식 매수가 유효하다고 봤다. [종목: 폴라리스 계열 주택 기업(Polti/PHM 유사)] 주택 판매와 가격 상승이 나타나 주가가 9% 급등했다고 언급. 금리에 가장 민감한 주택주가 오른 것을 강세장 행동의 예로 제시했다. 주택 가격 17% 상승도 언급. [종목: 월마트·Target 등 필수소비재] 경기침체에도 생필품 수요는 유지되므로 소매·필수소비재가 강세를 보이는 것이 자연스럽다고 설명. [종목: 테슬라] 테슬라가 가격을 인하해 경쟁사를 압박한 뒤에도 실적·수요가 견조할 것이라는 취지로 언급(구체 목표가 없음). [종목: NXP 반도체·AMD] NXP는 실적 발표 후 장중 급락했다가 반등해 장중 반전 사례로 제시. AMD는 매출총이익률 부진에도 상승세를 지속했다고 언급. [종목: 유나이티드헬스·UPS·캐터필러] 헬스케어 보험주, 물류주, 장비주의 호실적을 강세장 신호로 열거. [리스크·조건] 일부 종목이 단기 반등했다고 강세장 확정은 아님. 시장 심리 변화를 매달 모니터링해야 한다고 언급. 연준 정책 및 경기침체 우려는 존재함. [시청자 질의 답변] 시청자가 5~10년 보유 디지털 헬스케어 종목(Teladoc 계열 추정)을 질문, 크레이머는 장기 전망이 좋다는 취지로 답변, 캐시 우드가 보유 중이라는 점도 언급. [출연자 전망] 단기 조정은 매수 기회이며 강세장 전환 신호가 나타나고 있다는 낙관적 전망.
다듬은 글
five percent in the midst of a good old great height I mean that's insane Jess is in a bear Market when starting guys I need some sound effects like that hello everybody and welcome to NGB business news your favorite place on YouTube for Daily Business News commentary and I got a pretty special one today we've all heard of Jim Cramer and if you haven't he's a host on CNBC he's on there all the time doing interviews he used to run a hedge fund and now he has a show called Mad Money where he pretty much just talks about the market maybe gives some recommendations on what people can buy so on and so forth now I have to say that a lot of times he is wrong A lot of times he makes a lot of good points and he also can be wrong so do not take any of his advice you know I'm saying take it with a grain of salt is essentially what I'm saying but he's coming out and he's actually saying something that's an unpopular opinion so I really want to touch on it because he's essentially saying that now may possibly be the time to buy and as you know we've been hearing a lot of people come out like Elon musk who said that you know he thinks the recession isn't going to end until late this year you know possibly even into next year and everything like that and a lot of people have really been you know dissuaded from you know investing into the stock market at this period of time so somebody coming out and saying hey you know maybe you should be buying is something interesting and something that I think we should all look into and see why he feels this way so like comment subscribe all of that to help the channel grow I appreciate all the love you guys showed the channel I could not ask for any more but I'm not gonna hold you up so let's go ahead and get into the video and I think we are you have to prepare yourself not for days like today where the Dow games 369 points s b jump 1.4 six percent and then NASDAQ pole voted 1.67 percent House of pleasure but for days left yesterday when the actors just look like they're rolling over the Bears are screaming about the Skyfall now everybody's based themselves for a real Roundhouse we have to prepare for the down days now because in a bull market they're buying opportunities how you get a better price on the merch or merchandise as they say on the trading desk problem is it's hard to think that way when the market looks ugly we're used to buying the dips and so-called selling the rips and those days may very well be over replaced by actual investing we were in a bear market for roughly a year that was somewhat pernicious too it was dominated by a handful of Mega cap Tech names and that was for ages narrow and he does make a good point here we are kind of possibly have to switch up the game a little bit you know like right now energy is one of the sectors that is doing the best but really the last like 10 15 years and everything it's just been tech tech if you invest in Tech you're you're you're gonna be good when the year is up you're gonna be making your profits and you're probably going to be beating out you know NASDAQ S P 500 and it seems like what he's saying is we may have to go away from that kind of buying the dip you know I'm saying selling the top you know type of mentality as a lot of these industries are changing and we're seeing tech stocks are the ones that are end up being getting hit the hardest nowadays so I think he is kind of saying like hey it's about time for us to start thinking differently possibly re-strategize a little bit if we want to be you know profitable I think that's interesting and a good point that possibly could be made we already and in many ways dangerous for most of the S P 500 the main caps carried everything on their back like giant steam trunks filled with stocks okay I think many of us have forgotten what a real bull market looks like or they never seen it at all you know what it looks like it looks like today when we see the signs of a real bull you need to change your approach to down days like yesterday in a book Market they're just like the days when Jimmy chill was in his garden deadheading clipping the dying branches of stems making sure he's funny you can see why he's Beyond National TV which meant it was the perfect time to buy the high quality stocks that were put on sale by wall Street's hedge trimmers and why not they'll grow faster stronger and better just like my plants I hope well this is a hopeful about this Market well first there has to be a reason to be positive can't just be made up can't be chimero okay that's what we're here for this time we don't have to not one reason we got two reasons and they're dating back to October so the new season of last year first was the unexpected decline in the dollar and then the equally unexpected client and long-term interest rates we keep finding out that these two Trends have much more staying power than we ever thought no matter what the FED does or does the door says or does it tomorrow even I think that the it will not impact long right it's just short rates long range from remain extremely low which is important remember that's also good compared to stocks and dividends more than that later as for the dollar oh okay so essentially what he's talking about here with the fed and everything is he's saying even though they are you know raking up interest rates and everything like that as you guys know the since the dollar is weak the Federal Reserve is coming in and they're essentially uh pulling pulling money out of the economy you know I'm saying to rake up these interest rates and kind of get that inflation under control and everything like that but it seems that what he's saying is even though they're doing this this is all short term in what he's saying is long-term interest rates still are pretty stable they're still pretty grounded and everything like that so if you're thinking of not a Trader but you're thinking of an investor somebody who's gonna be you know I'm saying investing into something for 10 20 30 years then you may still be good to go ahead and make your trades because these interest rates are more so applied to for the next six months 12 months they're not applied to the next 5 10 15 years you get a strong currency if your economy is strong and it's relatively strong versus others well guess what when you see the Eurozone having better growth than we do as we saw this very morning you know there's still plenty of room for the Greenback to go lower right now the fourth quarter earnings we see are so distorted by the previously strong dollar and you think our International Club is supposed to be losing tons of business to their foreign competitors that's what a strong currency will do to you it gives a British outfit like Unilever huge advantage over say Procter and Gamble which by the way we like for the child trust but the dollar hasn't been insanely strong since October it's now way down which is a huge posit for American businesses that operate overseas and I'm making the claim that it's not done going there meanwhile we've recognize these two powerful trends for months but during this time you've been hurt severely if you listen to the Bears who constantly grabbed the mic and warn that it's dangerous to buy stocks because the FED wants a recession and they'll tell you they that they tell They Told You So and like yesterday I got my boys like oh look at this they told me so oh wow scary the rally since October has been all about the soft fantasy but yeah it just gets broader and broader with a vacuum beat in place without destroying the economy even as the mirror critics come on air and tell you the world's ending these guys come on here and tell you that the economy is too hot and we're permanently stuck with high inflation or they say the fed's going to Napalm the entire economy maintain price stability they have been and probably will be just distractions at this point they Take Your Eye Off the Ball which leads me to my second observation of this Market a real bull produces a crazy Pastiche if not amalgam of stocks going higher not just the same old same old okay what do I mean okay housing stocks are the most sensitive to rate hikes of all sectors they should be being clobbered but today polti giant Honda reported this maker of mid six figure houses delivered a perfect quarter allowing stock to soar nine percent nine percent I mean that's insane Jess is in a bear Market when stock guys I need some sound effects like that Walmart just accept the novelies and exploit them think about it the feds raising rates to cool down the economy and partly is just worried about the sky high price of how housing so personally I'm praying j-pal didn't listen to the polti conference call CEO Ryan Marshall kicked it off by saying I quote we end in 2022 on a high note as we closed almost 8 900 homes and delivered all-time fourth quarter records end quote that's not what the FED wants to hear now uh polti did see net new orders down 27 that's true because think about it guys the FED is trying to slow down the economy so the FED is trying to raise interest rates so the so less people are loaning out which means uh less people will get loans for cars less people will get loans for houses businesses will invest less into let's say new facilities new things like that because the interest rates are going to be much higher you would rather wait for the interest rates to go down you know I'm saying before you make a purchase think about if you're buying a house right now you would rather have lower interest rates so if you know they're high at that moment you may say hey I'm gonna wait six months I'm gonna wait a few years before I buy a house possibly now to see if I can get a better interest rate so with like he's saying with this uh polter group or whatever is coming out and saying hey you know we sold or you know we were able to sell you know 90 000 houses or something last year then that's kind of making the FED be like this isn't exactly what we want because what we're trying to do is slow down the economy so why is you know why is everything going so well or so fast for you year over year Marshall noted quote the software demand as a result of consumers priced out of the market by higher prices and higher mortgage rates along with those individuals who have moved to the sidelines given market uncertainties and risks that's one for the fed and it's Warriors inflation oh no but go one page into polti's slide deck and you will see how confusingly bullish this moment is because the company actually raised housing prices by 17 percent all the way to 571 000 on average are these numbers the sign of America's great wealth are they telling us that when long rates leveled off at the end of last year buyers started coming back to the housing market now in the bear Market we'd be dissecting these numbers and saying the frauds or they're crazy who knows but all right the negative interpretations they don't they don't cut it now in a bull market you know what you do well you do nothing you know one thing you certainly don't do is look through it I'll tell you what you do you buy remember in Bull markets all sorts of stocks lead us higher including ones that sometimes erupt Hartford actually no discernible reason whatsoever I mean why the heck did the retailer start running today I got no idea that's that's bull market Beaver but he says why are they always talking about I don't know that's bull market Behavior then they're the orders okay I think we can say kind of why we know like something like Target could be up and everything we are in a you know we're in a recession and you know when you're in a recession uh things like Consumer Staples normally do the best Consumer Staples your toilet paper you know what I'm saying uh you know things like cigarettes things like uh eggs you know what I'm saying uh this isn't why X1 up X went up because there's a chicken disease if you guys didn't know but uh you know it makes sense why Target could be going up during this time because like I said it doesn't matter if you're in a recession or not you're still going to need toilet paper you're still going to need to brush your teeth you're still gonna need a toothpaste you you know you're still gonna need all of these so a lot of times grocery stores and things like that are able to kind of withstand this because this is places where people are going to have to put their money regardless of what the state of the economy is whereas something like a let's say a technology let's say you sell PlayStations or something like that people may be like all right we're in a recession maybe now isn't the time for me to buy a PlayStation because that's something I don't necessarily need while consumer staples are always going to be something that you need regardless of the economy and you're not going to be able to cut back on it like you're going to use the bathroom just as much you know it's not it's not like oh no I'm gonna go to the bathroom a little bit less to save toilet paper like no and you gotta go you gotta go which shouldn't possibly crushed to just mutilated spindle here one week after Tesla Cuts prices to smash its competitors Jim comes out swing with amazing numbers fantastic forecast plenty of demand for his electric vehicles letter tonight CEO Mary Barr will explain how it all came together I mean but the fact is it's not supposed to come together at this point in a tidy cycle it's supposed to be upside down could we flip this can we flip this and show people what it's been like the pain the misery the Managed Care stocks explode higher too look at United Health it's semi's reignited after day yesterday who doesn't want to see a boring company put up great numbers like AO Smith a solid maker boy trailers Here Comes carrier Here Comes train that's what happens okay at this stage that's what you want to be looking for let me give you another Telltale sign of the bull market reversals intraday reversals get ready for them look at what happened to nxp semi the more you know that's the automaker that they make chips for autos and the internet of things I would take less than nxp reported in some ill-advised Traders dumped the stock when management said things are weak and that is very interesting too when you see a semiconductor as you know semiconductors are essentially the chips that go into a lot of things the chips that go into Teslas your laptops your computers that type of thing and lately it's been really hard to get semiconductors because you know the c19 pandemic it's been hard to you know get them from wherever they come from you know whether that be in Asia or you know I'm saying Silicon Valley or anything like that but there just hasn't haven't been enough of them and this is why the prices of Technology have really raised but with semiconductors being hit so hard by this it is very interesting to see semicondu there's you know popping up and starting to make some profits and get rolling again that's kind of saying you know that they're getting back rolling on Supply they're able to get some more of these chips out here then they were able to get before so I mean that is a little interesting and I do see why that could lead somebody to believe that it's possibly a duel a bull market when an industry that wasn't even able to get out its products is somehow able to increase in value on the stock market that sent the stock down seven bucks and after hours there was no conference call until today but when nxp finally spoke it sounded pretty soothing and the stock actually rallied back from minus seven to finish up nearly five bucks 12 point swing yesterday AMD the new semi Kingpin missed on Gross margins barely beat very beaten down our ancestors they've been slashed out slash what happens bear Market loses 10 this Market adds to its gains this is the kind of bull market Behavior you have to get used to UPS reports this morning at 6 a.m computer generated stories tell you how horrible it is Big Miss oh how's it stock looks down four plug ugly end of the day stocks up eight finishes 12 point swing not bad bear bear Market goes the opposite way stocks open up then get clobbered field humiliated good earnings mean nothing except price Target Cuts hedge funds come in on down days and tell you here it comes the big one the motherboard bears and all that happens is they get that one day it's a bottom line let's understand that these are like a caterpillar reports a solid number and the stock sells off even if it doesn't reverse today well then there's always tomorrow so I don't think of Betty against it not with billions in infrastructure sales coming their way a sale down nine used to be a correct one when we were in Bear Town not anymore hey let's put a hammer in New York hammer hey give me chill this is Amir from New York all right let's show man and what you have to say yep uh so uh Mr chill um I watch your show with my baby son he loves his show along with me the baby is going to be on point he's gonna be ready get your kids in the market early you know what I'm saying get them in the market early get them thinking about what's going on like oh little Jimmy you wanna you wanna PlayStation five what's going on with Sony what's going on with Sony Jimmy you know what I'm saying I mean he said he watches it with his baby but hey never too early to get in the market go ahead and you put them on NGB business news you know what I'm saying just just let it play just let it play they'll be all right I'll I'll take good care of them would like you I guess in the sound machine that you have it would be great if you can add it on the cnbcu merchandise store sometime uh for sale I like that I like that okay double stop awesome so I would like to know from you if I should bifold or sell this stock my investment Horizon is five to ten years it's a digital Healthcare Company um it's came down a lot in the last one year so I know you've spoken about in the past but I'm wondering what do you think about it uh from a long-term future perspective they have um a whiteboard because they have to integrated with a lot of healthcare insurance companies you can okay they have a lot of doctors on the platform and the stock is stock tell a dog something you tweeted about a lot so tell Doug okay so like Kathy Wood loves it so that right now in this market that means it goes higher I mean it doesn't matter what the what how the company's doing she likes it people will see it they'll cover their shorts they'll get worried it'll go higher let's talk about answer goes hard thank you for the kind words all right I think many of us have forgotten what a real bull market looks like or they've never seen one you know what it looks like today my money tonight GM shot the lights out in the corner first and you got this new lithium investment to record EV sales I the record EB sales I gotta tell you you have to watch my interview with Mary Barra brilliant all right so guys maybe check out that interview but he definitely made a lot of good points here about you know interest rates and everything like that and how you know normally you'll see a different kind of trend you know if there's a bear Market normally you'll see a pop uh stocks kind of try to pop up at the beginning of the day with everyone being like Oh well this is low let me buy into it and then it ends up getting crushed throughout the day you know as a result of the correlation of so many other stocks around it and in its industry also getting crushed causing people to feel uncomfortable and pull out their money so he made a really good interesting point is this me saying that hey guys we should start by by buying like you know like he says bye bye bye he's got a button that says that um I'm not necessarily saying that but it is an interesting perspective for us to look at you know obviously a lot we are only looking at a few stocks here we're only looking at a few days and everything like that but it is important for us to think like if we do want to capitalize on this Market if we don't do want to be able to capitalize in this session then at a certain point we're gonna have to pull the trigger guys and a certain point we're gonna have to stop being scared and we're gonna have to start actually making Investments long-term Investments that we can hold for 20 to 30 years now right now it seems like everyone is at this point where we're all kind of sitting on our hands and we're wondering how long is this recession gonna go on like how where is the bottom like where should I really start buying and that's just one thing that we're all going to have to try to figure out you know together and that's kind of why this channel exists you know in in in fullness it exists so we can see over the course of weeks months okay the Market's doing this the market sentiment is being like this now uh I think you may see last last month it may be all videos about how the market is taking hits how companies are doing bad whereas the next month you may see oh wow there's a lot of videos coming out that are positive for the market and everything like that that can show us Market sentiment that can let us possibly be able to see a reversal when we're talking about these different points every single day so let me know what you guys think about the state of the market right now do you guys think it's the time to buy or it's better to kind of wait on hold on your hands right now do you guys think that Jim Cramer makes a lot of sense or do you guys think kind of like the Wall Street bet guys that Jim Cameron is a grifter and completely useless and he needs to be removed from the internet so I just want to know what you guys think about that also like comment subscribe I appreciate all the love you guys have been showing me I could not ask for any more from you so you guys all have a great day and if you're making some Investments let me know what's going on







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