저자: DanIves추정—제목'DanIvesBreaksDown'기준,본문화자구분불명확 · 외국인
요약 보기
Meta의 AI 앱이 앱스토어 1위에 오르며 투자자들이 Meta의 AI 투자 성과를 과소평가했다는 주장. Mag 7 이익 비중이 S&P500 마진을 크게 끌어올리며 주도주 복귀가 이어진다고 봄. Micron은 로봇 등 피지컬 AI 메모리 수요로 실적 중요도가 크다고 언급하나 밸류에이션 부담도 제기. Nvidia는 AI 보안 영역 확장과 대규모 현금 배분을 언급하며 성장 질문이 달라졌다고 함. Apple은 AI 경쟁에서 뒤처졌다고 평가.
다듬은 글
It's that investors, in my opinion , underestimated Zuckerberg and Meta in terms of the tens of billions that they spent, you know, on capital investments . They didn't see the result. Now look at this. I mean, when you have three and a half billion users to appeal to, it's not just OpenAI and Anthropic.
And I think this just goes to show: the arms race in artificial intelligence is ongoing. And when you write off some of these companies, whether it's Apple or Meta, look what happens, because they have the resources and the user base. And I think investors underestimated what, you know, Zuckerberg and Meta are capable of here .
I'm curious, that's my little hypothesis Kelly. What do you think about this ? The consumer finally got some very specific, perhaps exciting way to use AI. I mean, people are already using it, don't get me wrong, but it's a new way to save money on tickets or just experiment with different ways of getting your agents out into the world.
Could this affect the demand for AI and the supply chain for, so to speak, agent-based systems, and even reduce some of the concerns about data centers and the general anxiety about it? Yes, this is for the average consumer. And I think a lot of them , you know, they weren't ready to go down the Anthropic Claude path.
Here they are already used to the platform. I mean, think about how many are on Instagram, how many are on Facebook, how many users in total, and now they're getting access to this. And I think when you combine the subscription, the lower price, and the product , anyone who's seen the news understands why it's at the top of the App Store— because of what it can deliver.
And it all comes down to value again and again. It will be less about the model, it will be more about the data. And when you go back to what Anthropic and Dario did a few weeks ago in the essay, the view is: okay, we've reached the top floor. Now it's time for a regulatory grab or something to pull the ladder up behind you.
And now Meta and Zuckerberg say: not so fast. I would also add: Alexander Wang has a certain Musk energy if you follow him in X—he's sassy and funny, and. I, I'm amazed, I'm amazed and delighted that Meta allows him to be himself and...and the way he spreads the posts, discusses the logo and everything else—it's powerful marketing.
And again , it's someone other than Mark Zuckerberg, so people who are curious about who's behind this app might say, "Oh, it's this guy," you know, he's funny. I understand him. He seems like he doesn't look like a threat. He doesn't look like an AI overlord who came with some scary story about the end of the world.
Yeah, I think it's almost the opposite, you know, compared to some of the others. He is special, and I think that is rooted in acquisition; it is also related to culture . Because if you go back to what we saw at Google or what we see at Meta, you need an entrepreneurial culture inside these big companies.
And even going back to what Turner and Apple are trying to do, you can't just write them off when you have that kind of user base and that kind of resources. I think this just shows that we are still in the third inning of the artificial intelligence revolution. And it's an arms race that's more like Game of Thrones, whether it's what we're seeing with Amazon and news or some of the battles that are going on.
This is just the beginning because of the trillions of dollars that will be spent. We're coming to a point where three stocks—the only three that really matter to this movement we're talking about: Apple, Meta, and Nvidia—have simultaneously undergone a narrative shift. The narrative regarding Nvidia has changed to "it's boring." Apparently, 98% profit growth is boring.
Well, now they're at their peak again, probably about to break through, and people have gotten a little wake-up call. The narrative around Meta was that they spent 200 billion—with a capital “M”—on AI and achieved nothing. Now it's not quite like that anymore . The number one product in the App Store, it's free, it's on WhatsApp, on Facebook, and everyone uses it.
Suddenly you see analysts changing forecasts from 20 times next year's earnings to 25 times. And, by the way, they are inflating their numbers because there is no one on the planet who monetizes AI better than Meta. Wow. This is a big shift. Look at Apple. Apple doesn't understand AI. Apple is lagging behind.
Apple just fired its chief AI officer. They will never figure this out. They will never catch up. It doesn't matter. They will become the “gateway” for a billion consumers to any AI product you can think of. Look at this shift in narrative. Look at what's happening with stocks. So, the broad market trend was interesting.
That was then. And this is now . We are returning to the leaders in terms of profit growth . Quick, let me give you one number. The total expected operating profits of "Mag 7" as a share of everything we expect are so large that it almost becomes the main story. The S&P 500 operating margin forecast is 17%, and almost half of that comes from “Mag 7.” If they are excluded, the figure drops to 14.5 percent.
The forward P/E ratio for Mag 7 is 23 annual earnings. This is not an overestimate when you understand how critically important these stocks are through 2027. Before we begin, please subscribe to the channel. And if you want more in-depth stock analysis, it's available to members. Join our channel membership and get access to our premium analytics.
Now let 's get down to business. Micron will report earnings soon, and it could be one of the most important reports in the history of AI memory. Why? Because the amount of memory required by next- generation AI systems may be much larger than many investors currently realize. Some analysts even compare the memory needs of advanced robots to autonomous vehicles, arguing that robots may need significantly more memory as AI improves.
And if physical AI becomes a big growth market, it could create another huge wave of demand for memory. So, Micron's story is no longer limited to smartphones, PCs, or traditional servers. It increasingly concerns AI data centers, robotics, automation systems, and ultimately machines operating in the physical world.
And that's why some investors believe Micron's capabilities may still be undervalued. But an obvious question arises. Has the market already factored all this into the stock price? Micron has already experienced massive growth. So, even if the long-term outlook remains strong, investors should still ask how much future growth is already reflected in today's valuation.
And this is where the discussion begins . Some investors believe that Micron could eventually become one of the major infrastructure companies of the AI era, occupying a position in the memory segment somewhat comparable to Nvidia's role in accelerated computing. Whether this comparison will ultimately prove to be correct remains to be seen.
But the underlying reason is becoming increasingly apparent. AI requires memory, and as AI systems become more complex, their memory needs will continue to grow. Now let's move on to Nvidia. One of the most interesting developments is Nvidia's growing involvement in AI security issues. The company is moving towards a systems security approach that spans many levels of the AI stack : hardware, software, and services.
And this is important because AI security is not something one company can solve on its own. If an AI agent becomes increasingly automated, safeguards must exist throughout the system. The model needs control, and the software environment needs control. Infrastructure needs to be monitored, and security systems must be able to detect and respond to unexpected AI behavior.
This becomes especially important amid growing concerns about increasingly powerful advanced models that are pushing beyond their intended limits. If the AI industry wants governments, businesses, and consumers to trust more powerful systems, security may become as important as their performance. And Nvidia seems to be positioning itself directly within this ecosystem.
But Nvidia's story today is not just about technology. There is also a developing story about large-scale capital distribution. Nvidia generates huge amounts of cash, and these funds are currently being used in several different ways. The company can invest in its own growth. It can invest in strategic companies in the AI ecosystem, as well as return capital to shareholders.
And this is very different from the situation in the early stages of the AI boom. The main question then was whether Nvidia could keep up with the exploding demand. Now the company is so profitable that investors are asking completely different questions.
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