저자: 미상 · 외국인
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멍거 인용 기반 경기침체 경고 영상. 결론: 2023년 미국 경기침체 가능성이 매우 높다고 주장. 멍거의 우려: 1970년대처럼 연준이 인플레 억제를 위해 경기침체도 감수할 가능성, 정치적 의지가 지속될지 우려. 연준·정치권 상황: 워런·샌더스 상원의원이 파월 연준의장의 급격한 금리인상 비판. 파월은 부동산·주식 버블 붕괴와 해고 증가를 용인하는 입장으로 언급됨. 기준금리 0%→4.5%로 상승, 뉴욕 30년 고정대출금리 6.7%. 경기 전망: 애틀란타 연은 1분기 GDP 성장률 2.3% 예측(이전 2.7%에서 하향, 연초 0.7%보다 높음). 2022년 두 분기 연속 마이너스 GDP 후 에너지 수출 덕에 회복. 시장 흐름: S&P500 1월 +6.18%, 2월 -2.6%. 1월 예상 밖 소비지출 급증과 사회보장 인상이 소득 증가에 기여. 2022년 약세장 후 연말 반등. 주식 관련: 고금리는 미래 수익의 현재가치를 낮춰 주가 압박. 멍거는 대형 은행주에 여전히 우호적이며 가상화폐는 계속 비판. 투자 전략: 멍거는 필수소비재(식품·생활용품), 보험 등 경기방어 자산 선호. 버크셔 해서웨이는 보험 현금흐름으로 불황기에 저평가 자산을 매수하는 구조라 언급. 소수 최고 아이디어에 집중 투자 권장. 리스크: 인플레이션 지속과 연준 긴축이 경기침체를 촉발할 수 있음. 영상 말미 결론 없이 '경제 셧다운 가능성'에 대한 시청자 의견 요청.
다듬은 글
Charlie Munger compares the present situation in the markets to the 1970s when inflation was high and the Federal Reserve needed to reduce inflation at any cost even if it meant causing a recession or an economic downturn he is concerned if there is permanent political will to allow the Federal Reserve to use monetary policy to reduce inflation Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have already criticized fed chairman Powell for causing people Financial hardships with his rapid and huge interest rate hikes Powell has stated publicly that he wishes to see the property bubble in real estate and stocks burst as well as a spike in layoffs to help moderate inflation with four 75 basis point increases in rates in a row the federal reserve's funds rates that decides the pace for the remaining portion of the bond market has risen from zero to 4.5 percent with a deposit of 20 percent and a credit score between 700 and 719 the 30 year fixed loan rate in New York is now 6.7 percent this creates a quandary for shareholders attempting to forecast inflation is a Fool's game as the last 10 years have demonstrated since 2008 investors have wasted trillions by speculating on an inflationary spiral that rarely materialized the same thing could happen this time the FED has stayed Hardline and many think this would lead to a recession although if inflation is looked at on a monthly schedule as opposed to the typical annual rate currently at 6.5 percent then it will be a different picture the United States did have two consecutive negative quarterly GDP figures in 2022 before returning to a healthy GTP thanks mostly to strong energy export prices whether academics or the government believed that they had a recession or are now in one there's a very high possibility that the United States will experience a recession in 2023 due to a variety of variables as per monger's words a recession is caused by elevated interest rates excessive interest rates on bonds High inflation increased layoffs and declining company sales and earnings less discretionary spending money for consumers causes a chain reaction in the economy that reduces the speed of money into discretionary spreading channels as it depletes into the first level of consumer demands such as electricity bills food and rent or mortgages High labor expenses wholesale pricing of Commodities materials and energy bills further drain corporate earnings leaving little money for spending on capital for updating equipment and facilities in parallel with company expansion Charlie Munger on the other side said that even though Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its top Finance Holdings he remains a fan of numerous large Bank stocks he also increased his long-standing condemnation of cryptocurrency he said that people are less pleased with the conditions of circumstances than they were before things were much worse he further explained that it is hard for someone his age because he was born during the period of Great Depression when the misery was unbearable Monger is most widely recognized as Berkshire Hathaway's Vice chairman and Buffett's longtime collaborator in business he additionally acts as the chairman of Daily Journal a newspaper publisher with its own substantial shareholdings stated that he was against disposing of the daily journal's Bank interests because the newspaper purchased many of the shares at the bottom of the market during the 2008-2009 financial crisis if the corporation traded in on those gains it would face a large tax burden in California well now keeping that in consideration here's how analysts predict the economy will be doing in 2023 the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts a 2.3 GDP growth in the first quarter although this is a decrease from a 2.7 projection provided a few days ago it is still significantly higher than the 0.7 estimate issued at the start of the year that inversely is bad news since it suggests that the Federal Reserve has a great deal of work to do in reducing inflation which reached 40-year highs in the latter part of the summer that means greater expenses for borrowing for firms and consumers alike more of the Affliction pal predicted last summer would be required to bring inflation back down to the two percent per year average set by the FED it is an issue for both investors and consumers higher interest rates compress stock values because the significance of future revenues is diluted when the cost for cash Rises that explains why the stock market had a poor February after declaring in January that everything was fine in the initial month of the year the s p 5 500 an indicator for the broader Market gained 6.18 percent February saw a 2.6 drop signaling a turnaround an unexpected surge in consumer spending in January which shook markets when it was published in late February was one of the reasons for the sea change in mood it turns out that over 400 billion dollars in price hikes for those receiving Social Security and modifications to tax bans due to inflation aided income growth in January all of this is happening while the FED is attempting to extract funds from the banking sector as per monger's statement people's attitudes about the economy frequently indicate their socioeconomic status they typically feel more secure as the value of their assets such as houses and equities Rises if they have employment and believe they will be able to keep them they could be more motivated to spend however if prices rise faster than their incomes and petrol prices rise they become irritable the problem is that almost all of this has occurred in the last few years during the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent Recovery House values soared at an unusually rapid rate stocks did well for some time too before reaching a bear Market in 2022 and then recovering late in the year on the belief that the Fed was making progress on inflation and would participate in either bringing a pause in interest rates or perhaps decreasing rates if the economy experienced a recession that hope is somewhat gone now financial sector economists frequently based their assessment of the global economy on Market outcomes the people they serve are after all investors in contrast economists working in Academia government or corporate organizations prefer to focus on the labor Market's Health inflation or general growth and how it affects employees or government policy it's an oversimplification but it might assist the average individual in understanding economic criticism this high probability crisis will most likely come while the impacts of inflation remain incapacitated thus how individuals invest must account for an inflationary climate as well over here Charlie Munger said that it's possible that one will have to pick the least awful of a variety of possibilities which is common in the way people make choices Berkshire stock is owned by the mongers Costco stock Chinese stock a little Daily Journal stock and a slew of apartment buildings he continued to explain this by saying that the diversity of the assets is not needed if one has four good assets they should consider themselves fortunate said that one is lucky enough if they have four Essentials to purchase in the case when they are striving to perform better than average Monger advises concentrating your wealth in simply some of your greatest investing ideas he does not wait for the economic climate to alter his wealth rather he constructs his Ventures with all in mind from the start his little portfolio is already prepared for inflation recession and a strong economy Consumer Staples such as food and cleaning Goods sell well during a downturn during a recession or period of high inflation consumers tend to prioritize fundamental budget items such as food shelter Transportation utilities and insurance leaving little money for larger non-essential purchases such as appliances new automobiles or home improvements people are also shifting away from eating out and towards buying groceries and cooking at home Berkshire Hathaway controls numerous businesses that sell things that people require on a regular basis and has a certain pricing influence Berkshire Hathaway's major business is insurance which is recession-proof because people must remain insured regardless of bigger economic difficulties Berkshire also leverages the cash flow from its insurance companies to raise money and buy stocks with value or entire businesses during bad markets with Warren Buffett the corporation has become the best stock picker in history and investors would be wise to learn from his success methods well what are your views on that would you learn something from Charlie Munger if an economic shutdown approaches let us know in the comments down below do like and subscribe to the channel and hit the Bell icon so you always stay informed about our future uploads thanks for watching and we'll be back soon in the next video
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