저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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레이 달리오는 미국과 중국이 전쟁 직전(벼랑 끝)에 있다고 진단했다. 달리오는 4월 27일 링크드인 메모에서 대만 문제, 최근 군사활동, 우크라이나 위기, 경제 제재 등을 근거로 양국 관계가 대화 불가 수준에 가깝다고 주장했다. 두 강대국이 반드시 충돌로 넘어가지는 않겠지만 긴장은 이미 그 수준에 근접했다고 했다. 다만 이는 증시 가격 예측이 아니다. 달리오는 향후 18개월간 미·중 긴장이 더 악화될 것으로 봤다. 2024년 미국 대선 시즌에 정치인들이 중국을 자극하는 행보를 이어갈 가능성이 크다는 이유다. 미국 측 반응으로 파파로 태평양함대사령관은 필리핀 보급을 방해하면 지원할 준비가 되어 있다고 밝혔다. 필리핀 대통령 마르코스의 방미 등 동맹 강화 움직임도 함께 다뤄졌다. 중국 측으로는 자연자원부가 부동산 통합등기 체계 구축을 완료했다고 발표했다. 전문가들은 이를 재산세 징수 기반 마련으로 해석했으며, 부동산 침체와 재정 악화가 배경이라고 분석했다. 앤드류 브라운 등 외부 평론가는 달리오의 우려가 미국 투자자의 대중 투자 제한, 특히 군사 전용 가능성이 있는 첨단 컴퓨팅 분야와 관련된 것일 수 있다고 봤다. 대상 자산(종목·지수·금리·환율 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
well-known investor Ray dalio U.S and China wrestle six inches from war We Stand ready U.S Admiral vows to Aid Philippine resupplies in South China Sea Philippine president arrives in U.S to tighten ties amid tensions with China Beijing establishes a real estate registration system Paving the way to collect more taxes Ray dalio a billionaire investor with close ties to China is seeing a precipice of war between Washington and Beijing in an April 27th memo on LinkedIn the Bridgewater Associates founder said the United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk although he said both superpowers don't necessarily have to cross over the brink for conflict their relationship has already strained close to that level he cites the disputes over Taiwan recent military activities the Ukraine crisis and economic penalties dalio views efforts to release tensions are being Bocce the billionaire said the US government and the Chinese Communist Party CCP regime tend to accuse each other of critical issues whenever they interact which only exasperates relations he observed the United States and China are like two giants wrestling with each other six inches from the edge of a cliff and threatening to pull each other into the dangerous fight the longtime China investor expected the current situation to get even worse in 18 months to come due to get worse in the 18 months to come due to the 2024 for election season in the U.S he expected that politicians who want to win another term will probably keep testing beijing's patience to attract voters who dislike China dalio shared his Viewpoint after spending 13 days in China's capital Beijing having met Chinese officials and China experts worldwide Fox News noted that he had been under Fire for his financial ties to the CCP in 2021 dalio compared human rights violations in China to racism in America and wondered aloud if he should keep investing in the U.S American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Zach Cooper disagrees with dalio about the verge of War remarks he argued that the head of the indo-pacific command and the other U.S officials have recently voiced their worry about the possible conflict still they have also indicated that they do not expect it to occur soon on the other hand Cooper told Fox News he believes that dalio's likely concern was that there would be limitations to U.S investors investing in China especially in areas with dual use implications that could assist the Chinese military with high-end Computing he told Fox News Admiral Samuel paparo head of the U.S Pacific Fleet said his country is ready to support the Philippines if Beijing obstructs manila's attempts to resupply a grounded Navy ship in the South China Sea in an online interview on April 28th paparo told nikay that the aggressive Maneuvers by the China Coast Guard around the BRP Sierra Madre on second Thomas Scholl frequently interfered with those resupplies and these actions are clearly unlawful the World War II era U.S ship was purposefully grounded in 1999 to support the Philippines territorial claims Manila manages Supply missions for a small military contingent aboard papparo said we stand ready to come to the Philippines assistance in their exercise of their Sovereign rights he added we support the Philippines Sovereign rights in its eez exclusive economic zone according to paparo the U.S has given intelligence to the Philippine side to help with the Sierra madre's resupply attempts such attempts undoubtedly include providing the positions of Chinese ships discovered by satellites or reconnaissance aircraft although the Philippines has not yet requested assistance from U.S Navy or Coast Guard ships paparo said we stand ready indicating that the country is ready to intervene should a conflict arise in 1951 Washington and Manila agreed to a mutual defense pact the Admiral indicated an interest in a multilateral framework for preserving Security in the South China Sea involving Japan and Australia he reckoned when we are operating together the deterrent quality of those patrols from those ships increases many fold because it demonstrates the solidarity of the alliances referring to the recent agreement between Biden and South Korean president Yoon sukyo to send a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to the Asian country paparo said its purpose was to deter any nuclear-armed state from endangering the security freedom and well-being of the U.S and its allies when asked about the timing of the dispatch he said it certainly continues to be a silent domain when discussing the American plan to deploy up to four nuclear-power attack submarines in Western Australia as early as 2017 under auk U.S he commented that it showed more capability with increased responsiveness to quickly impose costs on any aggressor threatening the U.S as well as its partners and allies since China upgrades its military capabilities by accumulating High Precision missiles with longer ranges U.S vessels and aircraft could be vulnerable to Chinese attacks in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea thus submarines which can avoid detection will likely play a more significant role Philippine president fernadette Marcos left Manila on April 30th to visit the U.S as he seeks to strengthen ties with Washington amid Rising tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea as reported by Washington Times the White House said that it had invited Marcos to Washington for bilateral meetings to reinforce its Ironclad commitment to the Philippines however Marcos will be looking for specifics according to AFP marcos's visit comes as the American calls Beijing to stop provocative and unsafe behavior in disputed Waters following a recent near collision with a Philippine Coast Guard vessel Marcos began his four-day trip to meet President Joe Biden on May 1st at the White House which the Philippine leader considered essential to advancing our national interest and strengthening that very important Alliance before departing he said during this visit we will reaffirm our commitment to fostering our long-standing alliance as an instrument of peace and as a catalyst of development in the asia-pacific region Washington Times reported that Marco said in an interview days before the trip that the mutual defense treaty needs to adjust because of the changes in the situation we are facing in the South China Sea Taiwan North Korea he added this situation is heating up before marcos's visit U.S state Department spokesman Matthew Miller criticized China for a close call between one of its Coast Guard ships and a Philippine Patrol ship a week ago saying it was a reminder of China's harassment and intimidation in the disputed Waters in addition he added that any attack on the Armed Forces of the Philippines would cause the U.S to respond as xinhua net reported China's Ministry of Natural Resources announced on April 25th that China has comprehensively realized the unified real estate registration some experts analyzed this as the Chinese Communist party or ccp's next move to increase tax sources worsening the already struggling Chinese real estate industry in March 2013 China State Council established a unified real estate registration agency integrating multiple departments responsibilities and realizing registration agencies register books registration basis and information platforms according to CCTV over the past 10 years more than 790 million real estate certificates have been issued Nationwide real estate such as land and houses are the most common and valuable assets through unified real estate registration property rights can be clarified to avoid damage to Enterprises and people's rights and interests lytian pink a master of international law and China university political science and law believes the ccp's unified real estate registration is to pave the way for property tax collection he said because the ccp's finances are running out its desire to maintain its autocratic Rule and invade Taiwan has made its spending increase every day in recent years many houses in China cannot be sold and housing transactions volume has also dropped significantly the revenue from sales tax stamp Duty land value added tax and even direct land sales has fallen dramatically with the entire economy's recession tax revenues from every social class and sector are on a downward Trend making tax sources increasingly depleted therefore the ccp's next step must be to increase property taxes on a large scale and generally throughout the country and it will eventually become the main source of Taxation Wong a Chinese writer also believes the CCP is facing a financial crisis it must use various methods to solve it such as tax collection which will make Chinese people more and more miserable observers said most of the CCP officials assets are related to real estate and the unified real estate registration will make some of their assets public if the government doesn't have money it will tax the excess estate of corrupt officials but these officials can also sell off assets causing the market to drop or even crash however Wong stated that CCP officials are a privileged class whose assets are State secrets and the property tax only aims at Ordinary People he said the purpose of this is mainly to extort people's money real estate registration is to collect property taxes and land taxes which will further inhibit Economic Development the more taxes are collected the more the economy does not develop the more the government has no Financial Revenue it's a vicious cycle
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