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반도체 섹터는 단기 유동성 청산 국면이며 구조적 수요 붕괴는 아니라는 주장. 마이크론은 장초반 급등 후 낙폭을 보였으나 기관 블록트레이드 매수가 나타나 가격 바닥이 방어되고 있다고 해석. 브로드컴은 Apollo 350억달러 금융 딜 발표 후 하락했다가 회복. 슈퍼마이크로는 390억달러 AI 서버 수주와 70억달러 유상증자 소식. 내일 발표될 5월 CPI 결과에 따라 마이크론 시나리오(뜨거운 수치: 872~874 이탈 후 818~833 하락 가능, 차가운 수치: 955 회복 후 1000 돌파 시도)를 제시. 이후 오라클 실적으로 AI 인프라 수요 확인 기대.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. If yesterday's action proved to us just how fast the semiconductor sector can mount a 10% recovery bounce, I think today's action was a stark reminder of what happens when automated funds abruptly decide to pull the plug. Because if you're watching the opening bell this morning, Micron jumped 10% right after the bell struck, and it looked like it was going to be a textbook continuation of that explosive rebound a rebound we saw yesterday.
But then within the next 30 minutes the tape reversed hard, and it sent the memory sector back down into the red. But today wasn't a structural shift in technology demand. It is a tactical near-term liquidity drain. Do you remember that hot jobs report that came out last week and how the market reacted to that?
Well, I think right now the macro desks are walking into tomorrow morning's May CPI inflation report completely unhinged. When institutional risk parameters tighten ahead of a major binary print like the CPI, the highest beta most profitable semiconductor winners are always the first donor pool for cash.
Big money isn't fleeing the the space or the sector because the thesis is broken. They're simply building up a defensive cash position ahead of tomorrow's data. And that brings me to a focus of tonight's video because what we're seeing in the market is is completely different. The broader stock the stock market right now is screaming panic over inflationary data.
But the actual corporate numbers hitting the wire are flat out of sort absurd now. We are watching a massive split between market sentiment and reality. Demand is hitting such a violent wall that server companies are literally running out of day-to-day cash just to buy parts. We're seeing tech giants locking up entire physical glass factories just to keep their data centers connected.
And the hidden dark pool, that data is showing us that the biggest institutional players in the world are quietly stepping in to catch the knife while these stocks are falling. Because if today's selling was really about AI growth slowing down, the rest of today's mid news makes absolutely no sense.
Let's break down exactly what happened today behind the scenes. Follow the institutional whale money and map out our exact playbook for tomorrow's opening bell. Guys, . As I mentioned last night, let's see if we can get this channel over for 23,000 subscribers. Well, we did it. Last time I looked, we were at 23,001.
So, thank you for all of that joined the channel, that hit the subscribe button last night. If you haven't done it yet though, make sure you do it tonight. All right, let's jump over and take a look at our first story of the of the video. Before we jump into the first story, I just have to say, if you think the selling pressure today was purely isolated to the memory sector, let me show you what happened across the entire AI infrastructure stack.
So, let me pull up the Nasdaq 100 and you can see on the board lots of red. Look down in the left-hand corner. We have AMD down 3%. We have ARM down 6%. Marvell down almost 8%. Broadcom down, Micron down, Intel down, Apple, Microsoft across the board, we saw a ton of selling pressure today. And like I mentioned, it was pressure that was happening across the entire stack.
But I do want to focus a little bit on Broadcom and Super Micro company, those two in particular, because they faced heavy programmatic distribution today. And it all boils down to a massive hyper sensitive debate right happening in the market right now related to capital allocation and capex architecture.
So, before we talk about Micron, let's jump over and take a look at Broadcom. Because you can see Broadcom, they actually didn't they finished today better than it looked for part of the day. They were down by about 1% just under $4. You can see the stock closed at 392. We'll call it 393. It got up to a high of four 408 today.
You can see over on the board, but I want to draw you down to just take a look at the action of the stock today. Like most stocks, it gapped up right at the get-go. You can see the stock got up to that high of the day of 407.78 within the first 15 minutes of the market opening. But then look what happened after that.
We saw this massive drop by about 6% or more right there, and it all kind of just dropped down right about to the 11:45. Most stocks reversed right around midday, but this Thankfully, we see Broadcom reverse and kind of pile back up and and and show some strong conviction and support and closed up about 393 for the day.
That drop that we saw there was all driven by a story that hit the news wire around Broadcom and their how they are partnering with Apollo and Blackstone on a landmark financing deal. Apollo leads a $35 billion financing deal for Broadcom AI infrastructure platform. Let me show you some of the details.
So, you can see here, they announced it's leading a $35 billion capital solution for Broadcom's new AI XP V platform. The aim of this platform is to enable more than 20 gigawatts of compute capacity for AI laboratories through 2028. The initial transaction, it will support Anthropic's capacity expansion of more than 1 gigawatt of computer infrastructure for training and inference beginning in the middle of this year.
Apollo will make They They manage funds and affiliates. They're going to provide the capital through a multi-year draw schedule overall. So, this is the story that hit the wire that drove that immediate flush with Broadcom. I think people kind of saw what it was and see the optimism the deal overall, and that's why we saw the market respond.
But if we actually look at the plumbing of the deal, which Wall Street initially completely ignored, this $35 billion package, internally it is code-named Project Big Sky by Broadcom. It is a private credit master class structured to to specifically fund Anthropic's massive lease of custom Google TPUs.
And here's the hardware reality. These custom chips, as you guys know, they don't live in a vacuum. To deploy an initial gigawatt of compute that scales to 20 gigawatts over 2028, you were talking about an unprecedented wave of massive server racks. Every single one of those clusters requires a staggering amount of Let me see if you can guess it.
You're right. A staggering amount of ultra-fast memory and high-density enterprise storage to process frontier frontier model data. By backstopping this historic pipeline, Broadcom didn't just risk margin compression. They guaranteed a massive multi-year wave of physical hardware orders that flow straight to the memory makers who own that toll booth.
And I want to jump over and talk about Super Micro today as well because you can see Super Micro faced some pressure today, too. Down by about 8%, just under 8%. Three and a half dollars. You can see in the after hours the stock is down another, you know, two just over two and a half dollars overall.
It's trading right now at about $38 a share. You can see where it was in its range, just about $45. This stock, as you know, recently was up to 50. Guys, I got to say a few months ago I called out this is a great pick, a high-risk, high-reward stock. It was trading at that time, I think at $19 a share.
So, hopefully you bought it at that time and you took a little risk like I did as well cuz I think this stock still has room to go. But the new story here is, and this happened right after the close. So, Micron, I mean excuse me, not Micron. Super Micro plans $7 billion equity raise to fund AI server orders.
And let me scroll down just to show you this high couple highlights overall. But Super Micro Computer announced Tuesday a series of equity and equity-linked financing transactions totaling $7 to fund component purchases for AI server orders. You can see down here on the second part, the company said it received approximately 39 billion in in orders for advanced AI servers from more than 20 customers in recent weeks.
So, that is a huge story overall. For Micron is burning through capital because they just received a staggering 39 billion dollars in orders in advanced AI servers. And that was just in like the article said, in just the last few weeks from over 20 customers. So, think about that. Their order backlog is nearly double the market cap of the entire company.
Their market cap right now is over 20 just over 24 billion. That order was almost 40 billion dollars. They are aggressively raising capital because they have to purchase components immediately to satisfy this unprecedented wall of hyperscaler demand. And this is where the puzzle pieces click together for the memory plays.
To fulfill a 39 billion dollar worth of advanced AI servers, Supermicro has to buy an ungodly volume of high-density enterprise SSDs and ultra-high bandwidth memory modules. This isn't a sign of AI slowdown at all. This is proof of a massive component supply bottleneck. The demand is so violent that it is literally breaking the work of working capital constraints of the companies that build the servers.
That's how how much demand we see in the market right now. But let's let's turn over to the chart and let's take a look at what Micron did today as well. I want to take a look at their 5-minute candle chart. So, let me pull that up. Here's that 5-minute Micron candle chart that we were talking about and you can see on the board, we had an initial gap up right out of the gate.
So, we actually hit the intraday high within that first 15 minutes of the of the market opening overall. You can see the high here was 989.12. So, within the first 5 minutes is when Micron hit the high of the day. We saw a little bit more support, but then there was a complete reversal of the tape as I mentioned the beginning.
We saw just this cascade this waterfall event that happened between fan and two. The character of the tape completely shifted. You can see it on the screen. Large institutional block trade selling entered the book. As broader index funds rolled over, automated trend following modules that they initiated a cascading liquidation.
Micron systematically slice sliced through yesterday's core support levels and it triggered a localized stop losses and accumulating in a dramatic panic capitulation dropped to a raw intraday low of 854 today. But if you want to know what real institutional what the real institutional whales were doing while retail was panicking, let me jump over and take a look show you that block trade tape overall.
And I want you to remember this last candle right here and the significance of of this as well. It's right at the close. But if we pull this over here, I'm going to show you the the Market Chameleon data. Block trades anything over 10 million dollars in value. You can see on the screen. That's what I filtered to for Micron.
Cuz I want to show you this piece right here. As I mentioned, if you wanted to know what the whales were doing right now, you can clearly see it on the tape. We need to look no further. If you just look between 2:30 and 3:15, big money quietly stepped in to catch the knife as Micron was was falling as I mentioned or as it was struggling and started to recover overall.
We saw this massive 135 million dollar stock block trade right here at two almost 2:30 in the afternoon. Right at 905. So that's 150,000 shares. And as you get closer, you can see that closing cross. Take a look at 2.1 billion. Just about 2.3 million shares for Micron at 935.89 overall. So that was that last candle that I said I wanted you to look at.
That closing bell right there just moved moved it up exceptionally strong into the close. But even better, the whale activity didn't stop when the bell rang. If you look above it, you can see what we captured on tape. The institutional desks, they spent the after-hours sessions aggressively printing massive block trades in the dark pools away from the public exchanges, including a massive 800 and almost an 845 million-dollar print right at 4:40 p.m.
And another almost 138 million-dollar print. Those top two lines that you see on there, right at 4:56 overall. They were all precisely pinned at that 935.89. So, you have to ask, was today's action in bullish or bearish for Micron? While the headline screams that it was down by 4.2, I think it was 4.24% today.
It was down by 4%. The actual story behind the scenes, in my opinion, is incredibly bullish. This wasn't a real breakdown in demand. It was a classic stop hunt designed to clear out nervous investors. The fact that billions of dollars of institutional cash stepped in to catch the knife and essentially draw a hard line in the sand proves that the biggest players in the game are actively protecting this price floor.
They wanted everyday retail traders completely flushed out of the way before tomorrow's major inflation numbers drop. The May CPI print drops tomorrow before the opening bell. And in my opinion, it will entirely dictate the near the near-term trend of tech liquidity. Here is your exact scenario playbook for how Micron will trade at the opening based on the inflation numbers.
The first scenario is a hot report. If the inflation print if the inflation report comes in hot tomorrow morning, the conversation changes instantly for Micron. The market is going to freak out that the Fed will keep interest rates high, or maybe even raise them again. If that happens, expect Micron to gap down hard the the second that the market opens at 9:30 a.m.
And I would not count on the 872 or 874 level of support holding. If Wall Street starts panic selling the whole market, Micron is going to slice right through that level of support. Now, once that line in the sand is broken, it's going to trigger a massive chain reaction of retail stop losses. And from there, the automated trading bots will most likely take control, slamming the price straight down to the next major support floor, which is probably between 818 and 833.
That will completely wipe out the weekly option traders and reset the stock right back to where it started uh before we got into before where it started before Monday's rally. Now, if we have a cold print scenario, the second scenario, I think that completely removes the threat of a Fed red a Fed rate hike sparking a massive violent short covering re-relief rally across the high beta technology complex.
Micron will gap up heavily in this scenario at the opening bell, probably most likely instantly reclaiming that 955 level and rendering today's midday waterfall completely irrelevant. Programmatic buying models will immediately penalize the shorts who piled into the tape this afternoon, forcing an aggressive gamma squeeze that will slice straight through today's 989 intraday high.
I would look for a massive momentum push to test and break the break the major support ceiling of a thousand for this stock before midday, cuz macro funds will race to re-leverage into the memory trade. Once the dust settles from the CPI report, tomorrow's after-hours session brings the next massive enterprise catalyst, cuz Oracle was going to drop their fiscal Q4 earnings print.
Last quarter, if you remember, Oracle stunned the market by revealing that its remaining performance obligations had surged to an astronomical 553 billion, an explosive 325% increase year-over-year. This monumental backlog is being driven directly by massive cloud infrastructure agreements signed by OpenAI, Meta, and XAI.
Tomorrow night, the street is looking for confirmation from Oracle of how fast that backlog is converting into real-time cloud infrastructure revenue alongside updates of Oracle's massive CapEx target, which is estimated which analysts estimate right now could scale anywhere between 45 billion to 100 billion for campus expansions and GPU cluster builds.
Any massive spending confirmation or upside backlog expansion from Oracle, it acts as a direct fundamental de-risking event for the entire memory sector. Guys, the bottom line for me is simple. Don't confuse a pre-data mechanical liquidity flush with a structural breakdown of the AI infrastructure supercycle.
Short-term fund managers are adjusting daily risk limits to handle tomorrow's inflationary print and quite frankly, probably to handle Friday's SpaceX IPO as well. I'll drop a video on that later this week, but the world's most sophisticated tech titans are locking in two full years of physical capacity right now because they know that the hardware availability is completely choked out.
The data tells us that the structural floor is holding. The smart money is defending the tape and the backlogs are scaling to heights that the market has never seen before. Tomorrow's CPI print, it will create short-term noise in the market. There's no doubt about it. Let's hope it's a cold print like I laid out because that'll be a great scenario for a lot of our favorite tech stocks.
But Oracle's print will also lay out the next structural runway. But the whale data that we looked at together on this tape, it is showing us it's showing us exactly where the big money is positioning themselves for the medium-term trend. Keep your eyes locked on the tape. Manage your risk parameters ahead of tomorrow's inflationary print, the CPI print, and I will see you right back here after the closing bell tomorrow and we can unpack the data together.
Let me know your thoughts. Let me know your comments below. Hope you guys are having a great evening. Hope you enjoyed this video and I'll talk to you soon.
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