저자: Jake · 외국인
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TrendSpider 앵커드 볼륨 바이프라이스 기법으로 ROKU, NVDA, GE, CGC, DIS 등 주간 차트를 복기. ROKU는 공급대 돌파 후 저항에서 되돌림, GE·CGC는 중심가격(POC) 부근 지지 확인 후 분할매수, DIS는 2월 5일 앵커 이후 아직 돌파 전이라 후발주자로 판단. 본인 진입 근거를 기술적 셋업 중심으로 설명.
다듬은 글
everybody Jake you're a transpiler to go over the Thursday night video and this is something I haven't really done before where I actually do a video in the beginning of the week and then do another video at the end of the week and go over the same stalks and see how the stalks have done over the week so I'm actually really excited to do this video because it's been a really interesting week on quite a few stocks especially the ones that we already did go over on Tuesday I'm gonna go over those but I'm also gonna go over a couple others into Friday so the first one Roku unbelievable rip here what I want to go over first is really the rain drop here this was the really the first thing that intrigued me at least I'm sure everyone else had their own I'm strategy here but just from a raindrop perspective you know seeing this big chunk of volume above this resistance zone on Monday was you know really just a it was kind of like a gimme right I don't want to say it was a gimme but we could see buyers were in control it was the first time that buyers had been in control above this line since we really tried to find kind of a secondary pivot here after moving up we finally found one right at the alpha trans anchored View app from the March 17th low we bounced off that finally got some volume and then just had rocketed cents and what's really interesting about this is one the raindrops were really cool to see kind of the volume showing us what was going on but to the anchored volume by price was incredible to see you know this in action right so the first thing that we saw was one we saw this gap up right into this initial supply zone and if you look at the original video you'll see here that we kind of gapped up right to this zone we found resistance for not that long only two days here before demand started to outpace supply and we continued up now the really interesting thing about this is the fact that the volume gap really told us that once we did break through that supply zone it wasn't gonna take much to break the price to the next supply zone above so in this case we can see here once we gapped up from yesterday we gapped up into this volume gap and literally rocketed straight up to this next supply zone and look what happened right when we hit the supply zone we got rejected and we pulled back and closed right below it so this I gotta say this is probably one of my favorite case studies that I've ever seen on the anchored volume buy price it's just been absolutely fascinating to watch the price respect these areas and really see this thesis kind of come to fruition I you know as a trader got out way too early as I usually do but that's okay you know you don't always have to get the whole move you stick to your plan you stick to you know if you say you want to sell the next Supply zone above you stick to your plan and you move on to the next trade as much as using the technical analysis platform can help you get an edge like trance fighter being able to stick to a plan is probably the hardest thing I've ever done in trading technical analysis yes there's things you have to learn but being able to stick to a plan consistently without letting your emotions get in the way is a whole nother thing so being able to just say hey if price gets here I'm selling and I'm moving on you won the trade not only did you make money you stuck to your plan and you got out so that is the plan that I stuck to do I wish I would have held longer of course but that's just not how it worked out and I move on to the next trade I'm in and I'll go over a couple of those simply just to show you guys the thesis behind it what features I'm using and that sort of thing so this is Roku I want to go over in Vidya as well remember and video was a stock that we were going over and what we're really looking at here was the fact that one it was in this inverse head and shoulders but the most important thing about this was - we had this huge volume base here creating just an absolute kind of point of control explosion and three this was a laggard right we already saw this set up in Amazon we already saw this set up in Netflix and look what happened this is literally mirroring the the Amazon and the Netflix moves as well as a couple other ones so you know this was just one that once again what happened I got out early nothing wrong with that I you know really just wanted to make X amount of money which I did sometimes that's not always the best plan sometimes I'd rather say all right I want to sell this level then necessarily say hey I want to make this X amount of money and I'm done no there's no wrong way to trade right you can trade in that sense that if you want to make an X amount of money and once you make that you're out that's your plan and you stick to it you make money that way if you want to stick to a specific price level on a stock and not necessarily worry about the dollar amount just worry about you know the actual plan you have an action for the price level above or below then that's your strategy and if it works for you do it so the thing about transpire is you can use really a ton of different strategies there's not one strategy that you can only use so this is just one of the many that you can use but being able to anchor this volume by price and saying alright what is the volume profile since this February 19th high and then you had the the reversal the next day where are the shares holding since that point we were able to identify that very easily with the anchored volume by price and remember I'm able to move this very easily and as I move this notice the volumes gonna change so being able to say alright I want to start it at this candle seeing that volume is incredibly useful so that is NVIDIA I do want to go over a trade I'm currently in and kind of go over the reason why I was in it and also look over essentially holy moly GE is ripping essentially go over why you know I entered this trade and you know I just I just want to want that trans fighter right our team wants you guys to realize that work traders - we're not just making this software and saying hey this was cool you know you should have done this three days ago we want to be able to show you guys real life examples what's working what's not working and all of that good stuff so ge is a trade that I actually mentioned I'm not a trade that I mentioned but a chart that I mentioned a couple days ago and what I was looking for was I was looking for the price right here to find a support zone around this big base of volume and you know I got in a little early but I still had some dry powder to average down in the in the low 640 s upper 6 30s and you know what I was doing was a couple things one I was looking at this divergence on the Williams percent range what I was looking for was I was simply saying if the Williams percent range drops below this point we no longer have divergence but if the Williams percent range closes above this line and the price is lower than it originally was when we bottomed out here we are going to have positive divergence so I had a couple theses here I had obvious the obvious thesis where we had this huge volume base here and then what I really found interesting and this is just from looking at so many charts I was able to see this pattern happens quite often a lot of the time you've got the price kind of finding finding a general bottoming area where the point of control is in this case it's here and what you'll notice is you'll notice that if we look at another example like spce you'll notice the same exact thing happened right we've got this anchored volume by price I entered it from this February 20th reversal remember you're always wanting to anchor either the volume by price or the Alpha trends anchored view app from these important reversal zones ie the top and this big gap down that we had on February 27th and what you can see here is in this volume buy price we had this almost exact move as we did in GE right we had the price kind of trying to catch a bid around the the point of control here but then the price started to break down here and you actually had a continuation down before reversing so this is very similar to what's going on in GE right now right we're essentially at this point here in GE so what you want to do in this market is you want to look for those stocks that are essentially lagging the market so you know right now spce has made its move Tesla has literally has the same exact setup here it's making it's already made its move right same thing we anchored the volume by price and the anchored view app from this reversal point notice how the price originally tried to catch a bid at this point of control and then it started to break down kind of faking people out but notice in all of these examples this breakdown never goes below the first low we always stay above the first low here and then we move up so GE if we go back to that chart notice that we are still above that that initial low that we put in and this is kind of like your classic laggard setup so what - see what happens with GE into tomorrow but if I were to guess you know just simply based on seeing how this has played out in other stocks we will probably get some type of gravitation back towards the point of control above and you know that's my thesis on why I personally entered it was I under some unrealized losses in this whole kind of move down absolutely I think I was down at one point like 10% on this but if you're scaling into a position that allows you to kind of allocate your risk over multiple prices rather than just saying I'm gonna get in at $7 and I'm gonna go into a full position it's like no like I'll get into some at 7 ie I'll get into some where it looks like a decent area here but then unless the Williams percent range breaks down with this divergence I'm gonna still be bullish here and that's why I continued to add on this break down yesterday I did a Denis today because I was comfortable with the position that I entered but today after hours we got that huge pump in the overall markets so you know I'm thinking in general the broad markets should probably rip tomorrow I have no idea what's gonna happen but just based on kind of the technical setup that's what it's suggesting so that is GE another one I want to go over here is CGC that is one that I went over in the video the other night same type of thing right we're right in this zone where we're right at this point of control which I've called the demand zone here this is essentially where all of the people since the February 14th gap up which was earnings this is around where most people are holding most people are holding shares from 15 down to around 13 so naturally the price is catching a bit around this zone and we'll just have to see if this is one of those laggards as well that moves up you know into into Friday when we've got this quite a big move in the broad market so that's CGC another one that I want to go over and this is a case study for a couple reasons this is CGC all right CGC is one that I've also been trading obviously down quite a bit I'll tell you guys where I started to enter I started to enter around here I think I entered here I entered here and then I finally entered my final tranche down here and what's really interesting about this is one obviously they are a completely crap company I'm not necessarily playing this because I think chk is going to automatically not be potentially or at this point bankrupt company but when I'm playing this floor is I'm playing the inefficiency right one thing that's really cool about this is we've anchored the volume profile from January 3rd and if you look the price has only been at this particular price level for two days so that tells us that since January 3rd most of the volume over the last two days is holding at almost the point of control so that tells me a couple things it tells me one anybody that was holding shares here likely capitulated either here or here and so that tells me that one we do have some type of demand here because everybody who's selling into this 16 price zone there's a buyer coming in to buy that so naturally we've got this massive volume gap above if let's say oil did catch a bid chk is one of those companies that just had a two hundred to one reverse split if there's a massive squeeze in the oil market you are gonna see a massive loaf load squeeze on chk they had two billion shares they did the two hundred to one reverse split now it's only ten million so you know this is not your traditional stock to play right now but that is my thesis I'm seeing you know one oil is starting to slowly catch a bid here and I do like to play chk is a high beta oil play meaning you know if oil goes up X percent chk is likely to go up more just because it's very volatile but when you're in these types of situations with this fundamental type of situation you've got going on with chk pretty much bankrupt technicals are not always gonna play out like they would in a stock that's actually fundamentally sound so this is not you know me saying hey chk is a great trade I just want to give you guys my thesis on some of the trades that I'm in right now and kind of the reasoning behind it so the last one that I wanted to go over here was Disney Disney is an example of something that I really really have found incredibly interesting here if you do if you do the anchored view app from February 5th in this case but notice here this was Disney's earnings so this is why we topped out here spwhy topped out on February 19th so don't you don't always necessarily have to anchor it from the exact date you just want to anchor it from the point time where we topped out for Disney we topped out on February 5th spy we topped out on February 19th it doesn't really matter we're just picking the point that the status quo changed in this case the status quo changed for Disney on the fifth so what we can see here is notice that Disney has not actually broken through this anchored view app from February 5th if you go to s py or QQQ or any of these plays you'll notice one thing very quickly these have already broken through they're anchored view apps so if we go let me remove these if we go and look at s py Disney is lagging by a lot Disney is just getting to this point here where it's just hitting hitting that anchored view app from the top so my reasoning for getting into Disney was one because it's lagging the market it hasn't even broken through this anchored view app yet so that was one reason and then - I mean you know look at all this volume here you can see one we've got this if I draw some trend lines here kind of loosely we've clearly got this very strong ascending triangle here that's setting up if I make this a little darker you'll see you know if we break through this area it's on I mean I would be shocked if this thing doesn't rip to the next supply zone pretty quick and then this is when you're anchored volume by price comes in right so we've got a lot of accumulation down here and then all of a sudden we've got this volume gap which means there's not a lot of shares holding above if there's not a lot of shares holding above you don't have a lot of supply that buyers have to deal with when buying the price just goes up until you hit this next level of supply so first I want to show you know if this did absolutely rip up we could use the Roku model right this is our gap this is our volume above and so if we go back to that Roku chart and then go to the Disney chart we can kind of see almost you know what could possibly happen here right we've got we've got the anchored volume by price very similar to how Disney was this was just almost the exact candle we had on the Disney earnings we've got the price below this anchored view app and then we gaped right into the supply zone so if we look at this chart and then we look at Disney look at where we're at in this equation we you know I'm not saying we're gonna gap up into 116 tomorrow but we're setting up almost identical to what rope who was doing literally you know a few days ago so you really want to look for these laggards that have not made the move yet and one thing that I found really useful to look for those laggards is simply by anchoring that view app and looking for those plays that have not broken through this view app yet and those they may be the ones that need to catch up with the broad markets so hopefully this was not too much information I'm really excited about this video there's just so much going on in the market right now I hope everyone has a great Friday and I'm looking forward to doing the weekend video and doing our podcast with Steve Burns on Sunday thanks so much for listening in and have a great night
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