저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자 대가들의 종목 선정 방식을 설명. 현재 밸류에이션(PE 등)보다 기업의 장기 이익 성장 잠재력을 중시하며, 10년 이상 긴 호흡으로 보유하는 것이 핵심이라고 주장. 대부분의 투자자는 실패하고 소수만 성공하며, 성공 요인은 좋은 종목 선택과 인내, 기업 이해라고 설명. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Furgan Bhai, how do these family investors like Warren Buffett, Charlie Mangad, Jhunjhunwala do the valuation of the company that they find such companies which give 100-100 times earnings later on. How are these people able to do this ? Dude, these people don't do valuation. You know, these people would never think that this stock is cheap valuation wise, so I will buy it.
Meaning valuation is I think there will be none of their concern. I am not offering a very high price for the valuation issue for entry. For example, people give examples of Jhunjhunwala and Titan. The analysis is always about earnings. He never says that friend, if the entire sector is trading at 10 at today's PE multiple, then I will buy the stock at Rs 8.
This looks cheap. They say, friend, what will this overall business look like 10 years from now ? I will explain it by giving an example. Have you seen that medicine of no no no ? What is his name? Ozik. Omnipic changed the game. Yes, it was very expensive inside Pakistan. Still People Are Buying It.
It was very expensive in Pakistan. Some companies in Pakistan brought it locally in the name of non-patented medicine, which was cheaper. Right? So the thing which was sold there for ₹00, came here for ₹25,000. For ₹1500, for ₹2000, for ₹1000. So if such an investor was sitting here, do you know how he would think?
That friend, the population of Pakistan is for example 50 million people, correct my number if you can, but there are 50 million people who are diabetic patients. Ok? After 5 years, will this medicine be effective for sugar or will it not be effective? Will this medicine survive and will this medicine not survive?
If it survives, then who are the companies selling this medicine? Whoever is selling these medicines, then after 5 years when you will do the analysis, you will not say that this company has an earning of ₹2 or ₹. Then you will see whether its market share can be 50%. If it can be 50% but the margin is ₹200, if money is saved in the injection, if it is saved in ₹300, then will this company survive?
So whenever you analyse big companies, in which you think that friend, the company which becomes 100 times or 50 times, the prime factor in it is always earnings, not valuation, we lock the valuation that friend, whatever happens, I will not give it a P multiple of more than 10, but after 10 years, after the earnings get compounded by 20-25%, it becomes a different number, try it, keep the earning of ₹10, put a growth of 30% and calculate the number and see how big it becomes, on that you can put a P multiple of 10, put 8 or 12, it will not make much difference in my returns.
Meaning that from here it's gonna be extremely high. So that's how they do it. But this requires patience. You have to like understand the business and then sit on it. What is happening in the index? Do you like the country or not? You are so focused on the product. He can be of any category. You are so focused on the product that everything else is out of the question.
This means that those who use methods like P multiple method, DCF method to find the intrinsic value of the share or to do valuations, then it becomes invalid. No no no no think of two different types of investors. An investor is someone who wants to play the game of mispricing. You can know about the game of mispricing in two ways.
There are two ways to find intrinsic value. Right? Mispricing tells you intrinsic value and there are two ways to calculate it. A relative valuation and a DCF cash flow valuation. Cash flow valuation relative valuation. These types of investors are playing a different game. They are playing a game that my return on equity is that I need 16% at least from stocks.
Any stock that's giving me more than 16% is my boycott. Do you understand? These other types of investors, who are very few in number, are playing some other game. He says, friend, my cost is 16%. It doesn't matter if this stock doesn't give me returns for two years, or if the stock doesn't give me returns for three years, whether the earnings are increasing or not.
If earnings are increasing. Even if the cash flow is low. Just now I gave you an example, for example, like I interviewed the CEO of BF Agro. He said that today our cash flow is very stuck because the number of buyers is less. But we are growing our business. Now this investor will look at this business differently from the intrinsic investor and this investor will look at it differently.
This investor will see that when I look at the cash flow valuation, I forecast for the next three years. 3 years is the maximum, right? If I forecast for 3 years, this is my valuation. This will tell whether this company will be able to make the egg powder that they are trying to make after 10 years or not?
If we can make it, this company will become too big. Do you understand ? I think in Pakistan or the whole world there will be 2-3%, this will be 97%, the question is which game to play, if it is 15 years or 10 years and you want to have a 100% return and you want to focus on 2-3 companies and that's it, this is the game, you don't care about what is happening in the index, you don't care about what is the return of the year, under performance or out performance, you don't care, these are those investors, but people cannot do this, that's why there are 2-3%, but these investors are like that, friend, if there is 20% return left in the market, then I should save 25% or I should at least save 20%, make sense.
So these family investors, their basic idea is to see the business as a whole. Because their mindset is like this. What is their mindset? These family people you are talking about are often and mostly not employees. He is the owner of the company. So all his life he has run a company which is his own company and pieces have come out of one.
So they are more concerned about the business. When you talk about the different set of people there is no one wrong here. Yes, let me make this clear to you. There is no one wrong and no one right here. But what the people here say is that if there is 20% savings in the market then I should also save.
There is such a difference. So their mindset is more about business. Anything That Can Become 10 Times. I am interested in any business that can grow 10 times from here. This one is happening 10 times or not. If I get a temporary Miss Price, I play. The entire sector is running on 8 multiple of 10, this is running on 8, I will play it.
Right? These are different things. But in terms of returns, these people made the most. Yes, the reason is there but not the reason, because first of all the reason is that his stock selection has turned out to be very good. But this is also difficult to do. Why do we know Jhunjhunwala, Warren Buffett, Manish Pabrai today?
Because they became successful. I think 5% people might have been successful. 95% would have failed in doing this. About whom we do not know the stories that he too might be holding three stocks. But those stocks may not have moved. After 10 years, he would have sold those stocks and would not have earned the returns that the index would have earned.
So, is the reason for failure luck or basically? No no understanding of the business. If I am asked about textiles, I am not an analyst. I am an Arm investor. I don't know anything about textiles. How big a bet do you think I can take on textiles? Ca n't take it. Ca n't take it. It is not possible. I do n't know about X&G business so I will not buy that big deal.
So the reason for the success of these people is that at the right time they took a good story and made it number two big. That is how they became successful. He said, friend, it is the right time. Business is getting cheaper. This business can grow. And they did the big Beth. Now some people have become successful from this.
Some people failed in this. I think most people would have failed and the rest would have become successful. So in the present time, can we copy these people in any way or can we also start a company in the same way ? could be possible. You can definitely sit. And if you have that patience, then whenever you invest money in any risky asset class or stock market, patience will definitely give you results.
But if you see a trend on one company, three companies, four companies, you can focus on it, research it and follow it, then you can become that, but you should remember that you are leaving aside the return of the index for the year. You are prepared that I am prepared to be wrong. I will remove four companies.
Three might be wrong. This is how private equity ventures and venture capitals invest. Invest in 100 companies. Three of them are so successful that they make up for the losses of the rest. But you have patience. So if you are also ready that friend, I am ready to sit with patience, then friend, this is not a very difficult science. This is not difficult. Correct. just ask this
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