저자: JeremiahBabe · 외국인
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결론: 소비자 부채와 재정적자가 누적돼 미국 경제가 나쁘게 끝날 것이라는 경고 영상이다. 소비 및 고용 지표: 블랙프라이데이 오프라인 매장 방문객은 6.2% 감소했고 온라인 지출은 증가했다. 미국 신규 일자리 63%가 저임금 일자리이며 근로자 절반은 연 3만3천달러 미만을 번다. 부채 우려: 미국인 4,400만명이 총 1.5조달러 학자금 대출을 안고 있고, 25%는 생필품을 신용카드로 결제한다. 평균 소비자는 생활비를 빚으로 메운다고 주장한다. 제조업 지표: ISM 제조업지수는 11월 48.1로 10월 40.8에서 올랐으나 시장 예상 49.4에는 못 미쳐 수축 국면이다. 무역 전쟁: 웨일버 로스 상무장관 발언을 인용해 12월 15일까지 미중 합의가 없으면 관세를 올릴 수 있다고 전했으며, 중국을 미국의 최대 적으로 규정한다. 레이 달리오 인용: 기업 이익을 내는 회사 수가 닷컴버블 이후 최저이고, 중앙은행이 주입한 15조달러 유동성이 착시를 만든다고 경고한다. 부의 격차, 통화정책 한계, 중국 부상을 3대 우려로 꼽았다. 연금 등 미적립 부채도 문제로 지목했다. 개인 대응: 부채를 줄이고 3~6개월치 비상금을 마련하며 금·은 같은 실물자산을 보유하라고 권한다. 종목·자산 예측: 영상은 대상 자산(주식·지수·금리·환율 등)에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측을 명시하지 않았다. 금·은 보유는 장기적 대비책으로만 언급됐다. 출연자 전망: 미국 경기 침체와 부의 격차 확대로 큰 문제가 올 것이며, 시점은 특정하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Black Friday brick-and-mortar traffic was way down Wow trillion-dollar deficits are way up it's Monday December 2nd 2019 I read a lot of your comments and a majority of people said that the brick-and-mortar stores the malls the shopping centers that they had visited were down there was a number of people who said that the retail shopping areas were up but from what I read a majority of people who'd commented the majority was that there are areas of retail there shopping malls or shopping centers the foot traffic was down Zero Hedge the Year Black Friday died brick-and-mortar traffic slides while on line spending soars brick-and-mortar foot traffic was down six point two percent way down online spending way up it'll be very interesting to see the difference between the brick-and-mortar sales and the online sales and the overall picture the overall number of spending what that number was overall but what we do know is the retail apocalypse continues and it seems to be getting worse you know what's very interesting while the average consumer continues to spend money that they don't have while the average consumer is continuing to get deeper into debt this article on Zero Hedge today I found very interesting sixty-three percent of all US jobs created since 1990 have been low-wage jobs think about this half of all US workers make less than thirty three thousand dollars a year now look at the cost of health care the cost of housing whether that's a mortgage or that's rent the cost of your basic necessities just go to the grocery store look at a pound of hamburger a pound of chicken a box of cereal loaf of bread fifty percent of US workers make less than thirty three thousand dollars a year and that's before taxes and you look at the cost of living and then you look at these consumers going out on Black Friday and we're gonna we're going to continue to see that consumers consume all the way up to Christmas and Beyond it there's really a canoe a contradiction here how is this even how does this work when half of a half of us workers make less than $33,000 a year and we have internet sales soaring we have 48 million people who haven't even paid off last holidays debt debt continuing to spend this holiday spending money that they don't have and when I look at these kind of numbers it's like how how do we even have a real estate market a healthy they're telling us it's healthy how do we how do we even come to these kind of numbers how is this country even functioning when half the workers make less than $33,000 a year you can't even buy a new car for $33,000 it's really mind-blowing when you start breaking down the numbers how this is all staying afloat and the only reason that I come to that this is all staying afloat is because of credit and debt without people running up debt there's no way they can afford their lifestyle there's no way they can afford the cost of living there's no way they can even afford to go to the grocery store without running up more debt and as we know 25 percent of Americans are now using credit cards to pay just their basic necessities the quality of jobs we create may be more important than the number of jobs we create we we live in an era now where it's more about quantity over quality just take a look at the stores you shop at today take a look at Walmart look at the garbage it is about quantity not quality the US has created a lot of jobs in recent years but the overall quality of the jobs has degraded rapidly just like people's standard of living it is degrading rapidly and they're having to go deeper into debt just to hang on to the quality of living that they have right now millions of people going into massive debt just to hold on to being in that middle-class sector just to stay in middle class people are going into massive debt just to to have that standard of living we see low wage low hour jobs making making sandwiches at a subway making a coffee at a Starbucks flipping burgers at McDonald's driving for lyft or uber this is not going to pay down people's massive debt here in America 44 million Americans have outstanding loan debt totaling 1.5 trillion dollars we need jobs with real value if America is to survive we need to be making things here we need to be manufacturing things here we need to pay to pull a page out of China's book and start doing what they're doing and that's making things we must encourage innovation we now encourage laziness we encourage people basically now to stay at home and get free money we are turning into a welfare state as a nation this is why so many people come to America from all over the world because it's the free money it's the government subsidies so many people get rewarded just to stay at home and do nothing and turning America turning into a welfare state is really a large part of the demise of this country the good-paying jobs are in administrative or government jobs that add very little value to our society and our small businesses are being strangled to death by rules regulations and massive taxes people are going into debt too into debt just trying to maintain a standard of living piling up historical mountains of debt I'm here to tell you this is going to end very badly for America common sense tells you if you have more going out than coming in you have a problem take a look here in America at the government and the average consumer the federal government is spending more money than it is taking in the average American is spending more money than they are making this is going to end very very badly for the US government for America and for a majority of Americans I was watching a couple of the business shows this morning and they continue to push the propaganda that the US consumer is strong the US consumer is healthy the US economy is it's vibrant holiday sales are wonderful the forward guidance is positive for Christmas sales and you know they just continue to brainwash the masses that everything is okay use that credit card you need to get out and spend it's your fiduciary duty to help the economy by going into debt but they didn't talk about this trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see and hardly a voice of caution to be heard that was on the hill this morning no one knows that what the tipping point is or what it looks like and most don't want to know look the average consumer as long as they can borrow money the party goes on they don't want their bubble to be popped they don't want to hear about anything negative they don't want to hear about reality they would rather not think about it and hope that it just goes away because they don't want their little bubble if they don't want their life to change as long as they have 10 12 15 credit cards and they're paying the the bare minimum every month life goes on they're living and I'm here to tell you that bubble is going to be popped and people are gonna have a wake up like they've never had before CNBC a key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory yet people are out spending markets are at near highs and the propaganda in the media continues the ISF manufacturing index registered 48.1 in november down from 40 8.3 in october and below market expectations of 49 point 4 you know these are more indicators more Canaries in the coal mine that people want to ignore look god gave you two eyes and two ears you better be using them anything below 50 represents contraction in a survey that gauges the activities of goods producers particular weakening came in on inventories and new orders while employment showed reduce expectations and when we start seeing these employment numbers starting to tick up when unemployment starts ticking up instead of down and they're doing every thing they can to manipulate these numbers but when they lose control of these numbers and remember these are low-paying low-wage jobs mostly these jobs have no benefits but when those jobs start going away and they can no longer hide the reality of what's happening in the employment sector we're gonna see big problems here there are so many problems coming to America I mean we have unexploded bombs sitting everywhere and something is gonna light the fuse on one of these and we're gonna see massive bombs going off Zero Hedge today stocks tumble after Ross says Trump will hike tariffs if no China deal this is interesting Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Fox Business News the president will increase tariffs on China if Washington and Beijing cannot reach a trade deal by December 15th that is the deadline a day ago China made it clear it would only agree to a phase 1 deal if the u.s.
agreed to rollback all the present tariffs right now we cannot do that there is no going back in fact this president must raise tariffs on China on December 15th he must not take his foot off the head of China right now we are in a trade war no doubt if we do not stand with China on this the number-one enemy of America is no doubt China period China no longer needs US parts in its bones this is on Zero Hedge day do your homework do your due diligence here's the the real phase 1 deal this is my my opinion the real phase 1 deal is that China is planning to phase America out of everything period hedge fund Icahn Ray Dalio he said this we will kill each other if our broken economic system is not fixed he's really making some real powerful statements lately and I'm gonna I'm gonna go through this article paraphrase a little bit for you today the number of companies producing earnings this is Ray Dalio he says this today the number of companies producing earnings is the lowest since the dot-com bubble because companies can sell dreams rather than earnings that's thanks to the 15 trillion dollars slushing around the financial system that has been injected by central banks think about that everything's propped up it's all an illusion and sooner or later reality is coming to town and when it does people's lives are going to be turned upside down he has three things of concern here well the wealth gap he has a big concern with with this wealth gap that is historical absence of effective monetary policy he says also emerging world power China which is challenging existing world power America so these are three of Ray Dalio biggest concerns and they are huge concerns we are in the late stages of our reserve currency system he says we are going to have much bigger deficits again just think about what he's saying this is this is the 25th richest man in America it's another reason why you should be buying hard assets like gold and silver putting cash away and preparing for this or things are gonna get much worse here in America before they get better the bigger problem is unfunded liabilities Ray Dalio says those are pension liabilities and debt liabilities you know I know people like my good friend Aaron out in Texas he believes his pension is not going to exist so he is stockpiling a large amounts of metal to hedge against the chance that his pension is not going to be there you know down the road and so you know I think we all have to think about having an insurance policy something to fall back on because you know what if your pension isn't there five or ten or fifteen years from now what do you have to fall back on right now let's just think right now today if you lost your job in 12 months what do you have to fall back on what if you lost your job today do you have something to fall back on do you have cash do you have hard assets do you have your debt under control just think the average person lost their job today and they're sitting on $12,000 of credit card bills they got rent do they got a car payment how are these people going to survive this is why it's imperative that we get our debts down to zero if possible and if we can't that we at least have them very manageable that we have you know an insurance policy or an emergency fund put away in case we lost a job do you know do we have three or you know six months of money put away that we can float our bills that we can make our rent payment that we can make our mortgage payment that we can make our car payment if our husband or wife lost a job do we have enough money put away in reserve in that emergency fund so that that gives us time you know to find another job most people have zero most people are negative they lost a job today the bills are coming in they're piling up and they're gonna they're gonna get buried so do yourself a favor get your debt manageable and make sure you're putting cash away that you have that emergency fund and that you're putting hard assets away because the hard assets are really gonna be your lifeline in the future he says we're in a trade war a geopolitical war and a technology war the u.s.
is in a it is not in a great place to carry on this fight the situation will get worse when the cycle turns the economic cycle turns and we are plunged into a punishing economic downturn we have a lot of io u--'s just like the average American that are either going to be funded by tax increases or spending cuts you know just like when we look at the city of Chicago going broke not being able to to pay their pensions not even able you know the the state of Illinois can't even pay their lottery winners so what do they do they raise property taxes they raise sales taxes they raise your taxes they go after the citizen they go after the the the guy that has a job anybody that has a drop of blood they're going after if we don't find a way to fix the system and fix wealth inequality bad things are going to happen in America and they're already starting to happen so I'm gonna leave it right there I thought that Ray Dalio made some very very good points there he seems very concerned about the future of America he's also somewhat of a historian he's looking at past events and he's seeing those events happening right now here in America they're transpiring here in America wealth inequality opportunity inequality economic downturn and when you mix all that together and a trade war with China you're gonna have big trouble and big trouble is now knocking at the door of America make sure you are preparing the best that you can have an incredible week god bless every one of you god bless this great country make sure that you're praying for America and make sure that you're doing everything you can to be prepared for when that day of correction that economic downturn hits America you're prepared gobbling you
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