저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 올해 금리인하 전망을 3회에서 1회로 낮춘 것을 두고, 노동시장 약화를 기다리겠다는 발언은 모순적이라고 지적. 인플레이션은 2%로 복귀하기 어렵고 높은 기준선이 수용되는 흐름. 노동시장은 실업률 상승·풀타임 일자리 감소 등으로 약화 조짐. 올해 1회 인하 전망에 대한 확신이 낮아졌으며 연준이 향후 긴축 발언으로 반응할 가능성도 언급. 경제는 불균일하며 필수소비자 부담 지속, M2는 음(-)에서 회복 중이나 팬데믹 이전 추세보다 여전히 높음.
다듬은 글
welcome to closing bell I'm Scott wner let's show you the markets right now they have been extending their record highs today the S&P and the NASDAQ on track for new closing highs the Dow is at the highs of the session now even as the Federal Reserve has taken its own forecast for rate cuts down to one this year from three back in March as is customary we are joined exclusively by Jeffrey gunlock only today we are live in Los Angeles with the CEO CIO and founder of double line Capital thanks for having us here it's good to see you thanks for coming scottt so what do you make of what you saw and more importantly what you just heard than big news obviously is the forecast down to one cut from the three we had in March that's right I think that's what will be remembered in this meeting uh in the in the history books in past meetings there was uh new ideas that were brought out remember we had super core inflation was brought out at one meeting there was three-month and six-month annualize was brought out this one they actually had to change the had to do the the sep and so they had to adjust things a little bit but he was remarkably vague in the Q&A session basically saying I don't know what's going to happen and he did mention that he can't wait for the labor market to really show signs of weakening to you know he doesn't want to break things just to fix them let them break them and fix them but I I I think that's pretty contradictory uh if if if if if you if if the labor market is strong and stable and you're not going to wait until it it starts weakening I I don't see that I I don't see that uh to be consistent with uh dropping from three cuts to one cut but the the market seems to be completely focusing on his tremendous Balancing Act he used the word balanced a lot of times between the the labor market which is weaker but not weak enough and then the inflation numbers which have kind of stalled out about well it depends what you look at there's so many different inflation numbers but uh you know I I think that uh the idea getting to 2% is really interesting and he actually brought this up very late in the press conference and that is that the the core CPI was at 2% for a very long period of time almost in a perfectly linear fashion and it was that happened all the way until of course the pandemic and then we had this Spike and so now the the uh the the inflation rate is more like 2 and a half% for the past 20 years and almost 3% on the cor PC for the last 10 years so you can kind of pick and choose what inflation data you look at one way to think about it if you're really serious about this 2% idea over the long term and he did bring it up you would actually need inflation for the next 10 years on the core CPI to be 1% perom to get us to a 20-year run just back to that that that 2% Trend that was in place pre pandemic so I I actually think implicitly what we have here is a growing acceptance of a higher Baseline inflation rate it seems that we're we're he said 2.7 is not that bad I think he was quoting the pce so I I just I just feel like the the market is uh very uh fond of the fact that hikes still sound rically like they're completely not being considered you've said you've said um most recently you're still looking for one cut this year does that hold today given what you saw in the data and what you just heard from the chair I actually think I'm less confident there'll be one cut this year I almost feel like the FED is is going into a reactionary mode they're going to react much more volatile and quickly I think if the data starts to get bumpier um I I just feel like he he's he's almost a trigger finger it seems to me on deciding whether inflation is is going to be uh acceptable he can cut rates but but what if you know what if there's some other problem I I feel like he would he would possibly go to in the future possibly go to Fed hike rhetoric I think that's a potential even with what he said today about the report the CPI today being better than almost anyone expected those were his words better than anybody said they made good progress we're getting good results here he said as well he feels like he's building the case for cuts certainly they've been tilted towards cuts ever since I would say November 1st which start started everything off uh in this rally was reinforced I would say at the last meeting where it was quite a surprise to the market there was a fear that there would be more talk about potential hikes that it wasn't all skewed towards rate cuts and I feel like that was walked back a little bit today but you have to get out of magnifying glass and look at and look at the the rhetoric but I I don't know I I I think that the labor market is weakening it's not weakening in a way that's that's alarming but the unemployment rate has been going up the household survey looks pretty bad I mean part-time jobs is negative your full-time jobs rather is negative year to date on the household survey and and he tipped his hat to the fact that we have highly contradictory data that's because we have a highly inconsistent economy and I think that's a theme that's been developing uh in the in commentary across the board that some levels of the economy those that are needs-based consumers are getting crushed because the things that you need are still very high in price and they're not going down it's the same thing with the money supply we talked about this before where the M2 what was spiked dramatically in in the pandemic response and then it went negative Eur over year and everyone says recession is imminent because it's negative but the amount of money is still a lot M2 is still way above the the pre-pandemic trend and although people focus on this excess savings theme the fact is that the the M2 money supply is growing again and it is still way above the pre-pandemic trend so they're still still slashing around it's just not evenly spread in the economy
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