Housing prices regulating should bring inflation closer to Fed's target: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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6월 미국 고용지표(고용 272k, 임금 4.1%, 실업률 4%) 강세에도 생산성·AI 효과로 임금 인플레 우려는 제한적이라 봄. 경기 연착륙 및 하반기 인플레 둔화(주거·보험 지표 안정)로 연준 금리 인하 여지를 시사. 금리 상승은 경기침체 우려 완화 맥락에서 주식에 무난하다고 평가. 연준 발표 전후 CPI 데이터 주목.

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01. back it was a blowout jobs report from May the US added 272,000 jobs that was well ahead of the 190,000 consensus meanwhile the unemployment rate did rise to 4% so did this jobs report throw cold water on hopes of a summer rate cut well joining us now is Jeremy seagull professor at Wharton School uh Jer Professor it's oh it's great to have you on this show and that is very much where I wanted to start because uh the headline number was very strong the wages data was very strong but we did see un employment tick higher uh and there were some signs of I'll call it bifurcation when you looked under the hood in this report is is the thesis around the FED not cutting and holding steady through the summer still intact well Morgan one one thing that I think is noteworthy about today's action is how many times have we seen the 10year go up 12 basis points which is quite a big rise and stocks held their own uh normally that bigger rise would really depressed stocks I think it was sort of a relief you have to remember that we were getting some very weak data late last week and early this week it looked like the economy was sliding uh in fact the Atlanta GDP now was below 2% uh you know at the beginning of the quarter they had actually thought this second quarter was going to be over four so there was some fear oh my goodness we're slipping could be into recession I think with this employment report and and the ism report that we got a couple days ago there's a sort of a a sigh of relief and and actually I saw that Atlanta now is now actually above 3% again for their estimate of this quarter so what we have is the Eon the economy is holding in you're right it's mixed household was down uh the you know the establishment survey was up there was a little I think one of the reasons yields Rose um and this had addresses your question about what the f is going to do uh the wages were hotter than expected uh but we have to remember that there's an important wedge between wages and inflation and that's productivity growth so we can't just translate oh this wage means this inflation because the productivity moves upward and we did not have good productivity the first quarter but often times it bounces back this 4% 4.1% wage growth is not at all threatening for inflation and I actually think we're going to get good inflation news in the second half of this year it's interesting to hear you talk about the the productivity wedge um there because what's what's new and what's different about the cycle arguably is the implementation of AI we don't always talk about it from a macro or economic standpoint but I wonder if that is factoring in here particularly when you do put forward a thesis about say a soft Landing yeah absolutely I mean the a lot of I believe that AI is going to be very important for economic growth now a lot of economists are saying is it yet a lot of people are talking about more 2005 uh 2025 2026 uh I mean golden Sachs and others uh say that it could increase real GDP growth between 75 and 150 basis points uh for up to a decade I mean that's huge growth going forward forward so it is certainly probably I think only about 8 or 9% of firms have really implemented AI programs yet but we're on that cusp and don't forget stocks stocks are a forward-looking asset the Market's forward looking so even though the the productivity might be trickling in slowly now I think there's encouragement about what's going to happen in the in the coming years okay so even as yields have ticked higher at least in trading today can stock continue to move higher as well oh yeah I mean we're still you know we had gone down 30 basis points we kind of took a third of that away and again uh you you know when we talk about yields going down people say oh that's good for stocks well there's two types of yields going down if it's because of a weakness in the economy that's not good for stocks if it's because of slowing inflation that's great for stocks so as we all know that you know the FED next week I mean it's sort of it's going to be a very fascinating way because we know the CPI comes on the day that fed is going to give their announcement on Wednesday uh nor I believe that chairman power will have that data actually on Tuesday afternoon and can incorporate it in that but I'm expecting uh as many other economists are that the the data is going to get much better in the second half particularly because we know that the housing statistics that the FED uses and government are are lagged um and uh that that housing prices have not and rental prices are not going up now at the rate that uh they report insurance rates are stabilizing those should appear in the second half of this year and bring inflation down much closer uh to the fed target okay