Tom Lee: Wise to buy the dip after Greenland tariff anxiety

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그린란드 관세 우려로 월요일 급락 후 현재는 딥 매수 기회로 봄. 2025년 20% 하락 때도 경기침체 없이 V자 회복 사례를 근거로 들며, 6주 내 손실 회복 가능성 언급. 다만 중반(연중) 정책 또는 연준 독립성 논란으로 조정(약세장 유사)이 올 수 있다고 봄. 백악관이 특정 업종(신용카드, 단독주택 기관투자자, 데이터센터 전기소비 등)을 겨냥할 수 있어 해당 종목은 회피 권고. 연준 독립성이 시장에 중요하다고 강조.

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01. Joining me now is CNBC contributor Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Tom, it's great to have you react to the president and what's happening in the market. So, a framework to a deal, no force, all is well now for the bulls? Uh Scott, I I think so. You know, I I'd say on Monday morning before the open, I think investors were very concerned about Greenland and and what's happened in Japan, and they thought of 20 you know, 2025 when the gate leads for stocks to find their low, you know, down 20%.

02. So, I think there was a lot of fear. So, today's news really does do a lot to diffuse a lot of that anxiety, and I think it's wise to buy that dip. Yeah, I mean, as part of this, of course, the president also saying no tariffs on Europe on February 1st, and that's what really upset um the market. Are are you still looking though, Tom, as positive as you might sound for a bear market sometime around mid-year?

03. Uh that's right, Scott. I think we have been pretty clear that we think that there is going to be a mid-year hiccup. Uh it could be around policy or could be around the new Fed being challenged. Um but that's coming from us markets being at a higher level, and I think one of the mistakes people make whenever they hear that commentary is they think it means to go to cash now.

04. As you know, we've advised to stay invested and to buy the dip, but yes, uh there is a lot of good taking place in 2026, but we do have a lot that's already been priced in because of three good years of market gains. What dip would you be buying specifically? Uh well, for instance, I would I would be buying the dip on companies that have good earnings visibility or a structural reason to be long because those that got sold yesterday, for instance, they're still the same great company.

05. They were just 10% cheaper. I mean, to me, that's a stock I'd want to buy. Uh the names I want to avoid are companies that are in the bullseye of White House policy cuz we know last year White House the White House picked winners and losers, you know, created problems for health care and consulting companies.

06. This year, it's credit card issuers, you know, institutional buyers of single-family homes, and that's you know, some countries, too. So, I think that's the stocks to avoid, but I think fundamentally strong names, you you still want to buy the dip. Well, I mean, it's complicated though. You you say that you don't know who's in the so-called bullseye next.

07. That's one of the problems. Uh 100%. Uh you're right because um if the White House decides that there's a a company or series of companies that are creating problems for Americans right now, whether it's credit card bills or electricity bills, uh you know, there there could be action. As you know, one of the potential quote uh risks is data centers and their consumption of electricity, so that is something to watch.

08. I mean, you're going to you know, you're going to say uh don't buy the home builders because what if the home builders he doesn't like home builders building homes and charging the prices they're charging? I I'm just saying that's a it's a it's a slippery slope to start going down where, in your words, you have an administration picking winners and losers.

09. Um it certainly complicates the picture a bit, doesn't it? Scott, Scott, I mean, every administration picks winners and losers. You know, Tom Block, our policy strategist, has pointed out that's what Washington's habit is, that they tend to pick winners and losers. But uh we do have a a White House that is quite ambitious.

10. Uh they've accomplished a lot, but they're trying to accomplish a lot. So, you you're right, that's the risk, and perhaps one of these is enough of a tipping point to cause a a broader pullback in markets. I mean, that's another possibility for why we'd have a drawdown that feels like a bear market.

11. But you still feel as though whatever upset we see or feel is going to be reversed, and we end up having a pretty strong year? Yes. Um you know, in 2025, that 20% decline did not lead to a recession, and as we pointed out that since 1950, waterfall declines that are not followed by a recession, and particularly a VIX hitting 60, have been symmetric recoveries.

12. So, I think if we have a you know, six-week drawdown, investors shouldn't sell themselves unless they're great at timing. We could just recover all that loss within six weeks, and and we are expecting a really strong finish for the year. So, Tom, I think it's just Where does the Fed Where does Where does the Fed factor in to all of this?

13. You You heard the president with his obvious criticism of of the current chair, Jay Powell, and some commentary on where the next chair may may come from. How much does this matter to your outlook? Uh it's important, Scott. The Federal Reserve is the single most important entity in the world, and its independence is incredibly important because markets respect the Fed, and they actually fear the Fed.

14. So, the independence matters. I think the process, and Steve Liesman made some good points. Uh I think we're at odds increasing that it's the Fed that'll be respected because uh the multiple things taking place at the Fed now kind of limit how the White House can proceed to pick new Fed chair. And actually, that's probably a good thing.