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all right hello everybody investing is a vehicle for Freedom we are sitting on the seats of our Edge not bad not bad at all it's like finding a hay in a needle stack the stock market is now open good morning everybody and welcome back to another episode of the market open we are here today got the intro officially rolling uh I'm not sure how much I love the intro not sure how much sold on it but we got some intro I did figure out that 10-second delay issue shout out to someone uh who messaged me on Twitter last night uh and message me a video of like this 10 little 10-sec countdown intro you can put in the beginning of it um I like it for now we'll see if we change in the future I do think it's a little long it's about 30 seconds and I think it can get annoying every single day if you listen to that for 30 seconds but I also think it's kind of a good delay to get started into the stream so so not fully sold on it but it's there it's here right now and know some people like it some people don't love it but uh we are still rolling with some type of intro dude says intro is longer than a Game of Thrones this is a work in progress this is a work in progress this is what it is to do Show Business live in front of all you guys but we uh we will figure it out I got a lot of good feedback yesterday that a lot of people liked it and it was good I I do feel it's a little long though so I me we'll figure it out we'll see how we want to roll with it into the future uh but at least you guys got to hear the good morning and we're starting at like a definitive time where people can log in and like actually listen to The Stream versus like jump in and immediately hear me talk and get and get cut off from the uh from the beginning so there we go we are ready to go uh today is going to be a very very important day in the equity markets we have Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 p.m.
I'll be live at 2:20 Eastern Standard Time to get ready for that we have uh meta reporting earnings we have Microsoft reporting earnings we have Tesla reporting earnings we have so many headlines from last night that are putting more questions than answers in regards to what's going on with AI what's going on with deeps seek what's going on with the broader Nvidia thesis so there is a lot to talk about a lot to get into the streaming schedule for today is we will be live until 12 o'clock today basically 11:30 12 uh and then we're gonna take a two- hour break and then we'll go live again at 220 and that 220 live stream which is 10 minutes before Jerome pal talks we get the actual fed decision at 2m.
which is likely going to be a pause it's not going to be anything too special that'll go on to like 6:30 7 o'clock so um that'll be like a five six hour stream but I do think there should be a two- hour delay just to get people ready to get into a longer stream and for us to have a proper earning stream outside of just the market open so yeah we'll have the broader market open today and then after that we will get ready for one of the most exciting days of 2025 now a lot of stuff happen over the night that we got to talk about in regards to what it means for NVIDIA I was actually up at like 2 a.m.
last night I slept kind of late so that means I was awake at 1:00 a.m. to see a company called asml Crush earnings and that actually really helped Nvidia Nvidia gapped up to 131 last night it's not a 131 anymore but it did show uh that the broader semiconductor ecosystem might be way better than what people expected and also proves that deep zek's probably not going to be the end of the Nvidia thesis so lot to talk about lot to get into let's get into it good morning good morning good morning thank everybody for being here Jersey Guido what's up ML Tess uh dragos Hardy Matthew good Morning Anthony thank you for being here John bayay Christopher Andy what's up what's up crowd control thank you everybody for being here it's a big big big day in the stock market and we're going to have a lot to discuss throughout the entire day quite frankly this is going to be a day that actually determines where the trajectory of the market goes so so far we've had a hell of a market it's basically Al been like 2024 all over again if big Tech can Crush we have some new updates on other S&P 500 companies and how they've done as an aggregate that we'll get into when we start talking about macro it's been really good it's been really good like it's been way better than what I thought would happen so and guidance for q1 has not been bad either so as long as that can continue with big Tech uh 2025 is looking like it's going to be set up to be not too bad of a year Midwest good morning thank you for being here sunjay what's up Kenneth Chuck I'm beneficial Carl Walter White Josephine Walter White that name uh based on your name you just triggered a memory I had my cousin is watching Breaking Bad for the second time I've watched Breaking Bad I know you guys I can't watch movies or shows or anything uh which ironically I I was listening to a podcast about the Soviet Union last night I had some weird dreams bro let's just say about that because the podcast kept playing while I was sleeping and then I wasn't rushing my dream that's it was it was a wild dream but um but but that's the stuff that keeps my attention right not Billy Madison but Soviet Union podcast but um but but I can't watch Breaking Bad because I've watched it like 10 times like literally 10 times over the past what 10 years but my cousin's watching it for the second time and she was like it's even better than the first time and just it's just one of the best shows ever it's better on the second time so there you go good morning good morning good morning thank you everybody for being here Richard Mila thank you Ian all right let's get started let's get started Jean says I'm in Santa Clara right now it's 5:52 a and I'm up watching a mid when I go to California in about two weeks which by the way the Bay Area Meetup form will be live probably before the end of this Market Mar open I'm going to link it probably like in a couple hours so it'll be live here it'll be live on Twitter as well so everyone will get a chance to sign up um I'm going to be there for a week and so I'll be doing the market open every day at 5:45 A.M and then I'll be done by like 9 and it'll it's going to be wild to get the market open done with and the rest of the days left at 9:00 am so I it'll be it'll be uh analyzing the financial markets even though we are three hours behind from when the financial markets open and uh I don't know maybe I'll like it maybe I want to move to California because it'll be easier to do it but uh that will be uh that'll be coming up soon and you guys will get that form for California but jean thank you for watching all the way from beautiful Santa Clara all right so before we get started with Nvidia deep seek which is kind of the core news I want to talk with because we have a lot of headlines on open AI finding some evidence of deep seek ironically or non-ironically stealing data because no one thought the CCP would steal data and before we get into asml I want to start off with the most bullish stat I have seen I think in the past five years of covering the equity markets that's how bullish this stat is and I think it's one of those things that's like I saw it last night I couldn't believe it I had to confirm it from multiple sources and be like is this real or is this like some random clickbait stat it is real it's happening and uh I I just I I couldn't believe it but nonetheless it proves that I think we really are in a bull market so what is the stat on a day with the worst uh market cap eraser of nvidia's uh of Nvidia right $600 billion that went away from Nvidia which triggered a chain reaction in the semiconductors and and the energy infrastructure data center plays the NASDAQ pulled in 4.3 billion dollars of inflows in one day let me say that again on the worst day for one of the largest Holdings in the NASDAQ $4.3 billion of funds across the World said you know what we're not only going to buy the dip but we're really going to buy the dip and we're going to put some of our money into what we think is the best you go call it ETF in the world best index in the world which is the NASDAQ 100 um and we're gonna we're gonna we're going to put money to work on a day where it seems the worst 4.3 billion I mean this is not supposed to happen this is not supposed Nvidia which is one of the leaders of the NASDAQ is not supposed to fall 177% lose $600 billion in a day and the NASDAQ has its best daily inflow since 2021 like what like again I saw this stat last night and I was like okay so all the Bears that were coming out as Dan IES would say out of hibernation and basically making the argument that Nvidia is dead the capex trade is dead you had some you know well prominent CNBC analysts saying look we told you so this was not going to be a good year for the AI trade why did for I don't think it's retail dude I don't think retail and we we know it's not retail we know retail had $560 million of money come into Nvidia in particular so I doubt retail had 4.3 billion go right into the cues maybe it is maybe it's just retail buying the dip and it's a bull trap but maybe it's not maybe it's investors that have been waiting for so long on an opportunity like we got on um on Monday that uh that a lot of people took advantage of and maybe that was the opportunity that everyone was waiting for and then they finally got it I mean if we look at a chart of Nvidia which is which is really crazy Nvidia was under its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than two years and it only stayed there for a day it only stayed there for a day now we'll see what happens to Nvidia today Nvidia nice little rebound yesterday up 8% uh which was really nice to see added $255 billion after losing $600 billion it's down about 2% in the pre-markets right now so obviously it's being choppy but we only got a day of Nvidia being below the 200 day moving average and on that day investors said you know what we are buying the dip what that speaks to for me in regards to why I think that stat is so bullish is because it is it is an exact replication of again 24 2024 when there was a dip people stepped in why did they step in because they they began to think it's a bull market and and maybe those people were more retailed than institutional but by the end of the year institutional investors we saw this with paler right the fact that they were buying it at 60 70 80 means that they had to get some exposure to the bull market to justify keeping their 2% management fee and as a result uh that led to people buying at at higher prices I think the seven trillion dollars of money that's on the sidelines and we will get an update tomorrow on money market inflows especially it'll be interesting to see what that's like after Tech earnings today and after japal pauses um we added 60 billion last week so that's another crazy thing we added 60 billion in Money Market funds last week last week was one of the best weeks of January because of the inauguration and markets ended at an alltime high Bitcoin was at an all-time high Etc uh and still we see a dramatic decline but investors that probably have money on the sidelines that have not been putting that money to work they decide it's time to come into the NASDAQ so I mean I don't know I thought that stat was incredible I saw it last night I couldn't believe it on a day where there should be Peak fear Peak fanic everyone's just like holy crap this Nvidia thing is done for we don't know enough about deeps let's just chill with our cash on the sidelines most investors decided they were going to buy the dip and 4.3 billion coming into the largest tech ETF ever probably assumes that there is an argument uh that the market believes earnings growth is going to be strong and that 2025 is not going to be the worst the worst uh year in the world did I say Peak fanic I meant to say Peak Panic how did I say Peak fanic how does this stuff happen bro I don't even have to try to mispronounce words and it just ends up coming out Peak fanic that's going to be a new catchphrase that'll be that's got to be added to the intro so there you go uh Amit my girlfriend watching you now please shout out her name is Dominique Dominique thank you for watching the show thank you for uh enjoying it with your boyfriend and thank you for being here hopefully you are enjoying the show and hopefully you are getting some excitement for the market shout out to Ash by the way I showed you guys at the Meetup Ash brought his girlfriend literally to the Meetup and it was awesome because uh his girl wasn't too into stocks but as she started watching the show and started watching him watch the show um you know we got more girls into Finance which is awesome because there's not enough of them there so thank you for watching the show hopefully you enjoy it and uh hopefully you get value out of the market open every single day okay so that's what we had for the biggest uh stat that caught my attention now let's talk about in video so first of all asml they crushed it asml crushed it I don't know enough about asml as I should this is a company I'm still learning about but this is the only number that matters net bookings look at that Beat It by double Beat It by double the market expected 3.35 billion or 3.53 billion they brought in 7.9 billion or 7.09 billion so when you beat by that level obviously the market says okay asml which is part of the chip design manufacturing process uh there is a correlation between what they're doing and what's happening with Nvidia and late last night again I was up at like 130 you saw Nvidia Gap up to that 131 range right now inidia right here at 126 but still it kind of proved okay so the semis trade is not over with there is not a literal obvious correlation between Nvidia and asml but when you read between the lines there is somewhat of a correlation it's kind of not exactly one to one because asml functions in a different part of the overall chip supply chain but like it it's hard to deny when you double your bookings which actually is way better than what happened in October of 2024 where like their bookings collapsed by 50% uh it seems like demand came back for asml in a meaningful way and that spiked up Nvidia now in the pre-markets right now we got a lot of different Jitters going on with uh different headlines and that's why Nvidia is down 2.24% but that is relatively bullish and it but the fact that nid was able to Gap up to 131 so easily last night also showed that the stock is incredibly fragile and it can move up or down on any headline and asml was enough of a headline to move it up uh even if deep seek was enough of a headline to move it down by 17% which is uh which is not the worst thing in the world so this is what we got in the context of uh Nvidia and again even if there is not a direct correlation between asml and Nvidia because it's a different company I don't know exactly about that company but I know the investors that invest in it have a like a different thesis outside of just like GPU demand the point is the market interpreted it positively right so whatever you think about asml as a semiconductor trade the market saw that number last night and was like oh this has to good for NVIDIA now maybe the Market's wrong maybe the Market's right but nonetheless that was a headline that Nvidia moved off of another headline Nvidia moved off of late last night is that open aai reportedly has found some issues when it comes to chat chpt uh and deep seek and the argument here is that deep seek definitively stole a decent amount of data from open AI so that headline broke late last night and the idea was was deep seek somehow got access to open ai's not only data but open ai's ability to um to but not only open eyes data which is interesting because that's some of the training models that they used that was proprietary to open ey but also to Illegal gpus from Nvidia and given that is the headline that's going on now that the way they were able to do this was basically steal a ton of different chips it's begging the question of like okay hold on wait a second how exactly this play out so this is the report by the financial times right here yeah why am I not shocked right why am I not shocked uh openi says it is found evidence that Chinese artificial intelligent startup deep seek use or use the company's proprietary models to train its own open source competitor as concerns grow over a potential breach of intellectual property the San Francisco based chat maker told the financial times it had some evidence of distillation which is suspects from Deep seek which is funny because open AI steals data from everyone else but when it comes to their proprietary models you know they're upset that deep seek stole it obviously deep you know a Chinese company should not be stealing an American company's data but the point is everyone's stealing everything at this point when it comes to building all this stuff the technique is used by developers to obtain better performance on smaller models by using outputs from larger more capable ones allowing them to achieve Sim similar results on similar tasks on specific tasks at a much lower cost the way I interpret that is that when chbt trains itself on the history of the Soviet Union for example uh they're taking in a lot of sources to be able to get the language to to formed the large language model to give you an accurate result about the history of the Soviet Union so chat GPT is probably stealing from YouTube transcripts they're stealing from Wikipedia they're stealing from blogs and articles on Google they're indexing all this stuff I mean literally they had to steal this back in 2021 there's no other way they could have came up with gpt3 in the first place and that's how they get all that information um deep seek probably said hey we're not going to steal the source data on the history of the Soviet Union and every single word on the internet that's been written about it we're just going to take the result results that chat gbt comes up with about what happens you know when you ask it about a history lesson around the Soviet Union we're going to distill that and that is going to be what we used to train our model which obviously is a lot cheaper than literally going to every single Source on the internet about the Soviet Union because you're just inputting less data but more accurate data because you're using data that's already trained and then you're training a model in your own way from an inference perspective so it actually makes a lot of sense now is that something that chat BT can sue them over or you know attack them on I don't know but it does prove that uh even what I think it proves is even though the cost to train was less the reasons the cost to train were less which again goes back to Nvidia is that they were using distillation so they were using opening eyes models to train which made it cheaper to actually create a foundation model and B um they're not innovating right maybe the process of how they trained was kind of innovative but they're not actually innovating when it comes to the data they're just stealing American models and you know it begs the question how valuable is that if there's not actual real Innovation there and what does that mean for the broader AI ecosystem when it comes to deep seek actually being competitive but outside of that we got some other news last night that has nothing to do with uh just open Ai and has everything to do with deep seek um Alibaba I didn't even know Alibaba was coming up with a large language bottle but it makes sense it's one of the biggest tech companies in China why wouldn't they be working on a large language model they came up with quen 2.5 Max quen 2.5 Max outperforms deep seek version three in specific benchmarks like Arena hard live bench and Live code bench so now it's a hell of a wakeup call to the United States because not only did some random tech company inside of a hedge fund build a foundation model even if they did it with stealing gpus and stealing data but nonetheless they came up with it that is competitive with GPT Alibaba throws their hat into the race and they said hey we've got a lot of cloud Alibaba is the largest cloud provider in in in China we have tons of money we have tons of researchers we have tons of data we can build our own model and because Alibaba built their own model now I think it's just a broader wakeup call to the United States of okay they're not slowing down like China's not slowing down uh the US is not slowing down but the US theoretically has no choice but to not slow down because if China continues to build what it's building then it's not going to stop anytime soon this is the official tweet from um from Alibaba on deep seek V3 um and what they've created like quen this is another open source model that outperforms deep seek as well uh yeah admit but they said they are spending 500 million not the Six Million they said correct they are spending 500 million versus six million so Alibaba didn't you know spend two pennies to make this model they actually spent a decent amount of money uh but the point is it's less even a question now about nvidia's demand because you know to build these m models we know there's going to need to be demand and I think the Market's coming back to its senses about that story and we'll talk about what zux and Adella have to say today to to reaffirm that story but it's more so now US versus China I mean I think for the longest no one thought China was going to be able to come up with any real AI Innovation especially because their economies in the gutter but even if their economies in the gutter some of these larger companies are not stopping with with the Innovation when it comes to building these models and I think it's probably because the CCP is going up to them and saying hey our economy sucks right now the US is kicking our ass we need to somehow be competitive in the AI War so like take whatever money you need and build some models and see if you guys can compete with the anthropics Geminis and opening eyes of the world um and that's what we got going on right now yeah Russia hasn't done anything bro I have not seen a single Russia AI model has Russia had a tech innovation in the past 20 years have they done anything like Russia I'm am not well versed in the history of Russia and Russia's usually not in the news when it comes to just Tech and Innovation they're in the news for a lot of other things but uh China tries to get into the news for Tech and Innovation even if they don't always have Tech and Innovation humanoid robotics they you know there's like a lot of companies in China trying to build that stuff um but as of now it's it's China versus the US it is completely China versus the US here right now Alex is same as the EU they just do nothing you know I've been seeing I've been reading some reports that people are saying it's time to in invest in the EU because the sentiment is so bad and then I was looking at some statistics in the United Kingdom and Germany and their growth rates and like just like the biggest companies there and I'm like dude like I get that sentiment is theoretically bottomed in Europe but like why would you invest anywhere besides the United States it's just hard it's really hard to take money away from us companies even if there's emerging markets that are you know maybe not growing but have some potential it's tough it's tough yeah asml is in the EU Spotify is in the EU there there's a handful of lvmh there's a handful of companies there's a handful of companies that really are representing the European Union and that's sad dude I feel like there should be hundreds of companies just like in the United States but just a different world in the EU versus the United States having said that uh so what is the takeaway for investors deep seek probably stole some data uh alibaba's working on developing their own model that's competitive with deep seek which means I assume this is still good for NVIDIA there's going to be demand even if there's creative ways to train on the Infant for that demand and if asml showed 50% more bookings even if there's not a onetoone correlation with Nvidia there's definitely some correlation which is why investors are getting excited now the last thing on Nvidia here and then we'll get into some of the earnings previews we have and macro stuff is capex guidance for 2025 so today is going to be incredibly important because Amazon or not Amazon Microsoft and meta report their capex guidance meta already said 65 billion uh Microsoft already said 80 billion if that continues then uh we are going to see a significant level of capex that's spent in 2025 the projections right now are 300 or sorry 270 billion in 2025 which is up from six billion or it's up from an aggregate of about uh uh 200 billion in 2024 uh and 306 billion is the projection for 2026 if these projections can be laid out as accurately as what the market assumes them to be going into today's earnings which I I just I just I can't imagine they're not I hope they are um if if they are then I think Nvidia has a little bit of recovery and I think the market which already was able to give Nvidia billion out of the 600 billion it lost yesterday maybe the Market's like all right we freaked out for no reason which happens bro the market is made out of individual people at the end of the day individual people get stupid and they you know they end up they end up doing some dumb stuff so I would imagine that maybe that hysteria and panic uh is what caused the market to be like this but also some reaffirmation from Microsoft and meta about what it means for how much capex they're spending could get the market to get back to their censes by the way my dad bought the dip on Nvidia if you guys were wondering a couple days ago he bought it at 125 and then yesterday he bought it at 120 so he came home and he's like yeah cop some Nvidia was like again it's a total of 180 for him dude he doesn't buy on red days he is not conditioned to buy on red and then yesterday he was like nah bro screw it it was at 120 I bought it at 125 the day before I bought some more in video so he engaged in buying the dip I mean that's gotta be crazy dude when the dip is that bad that my dad buys the dip you gotta you got to imagine that it got pretty exaggerated to an extent when it came to that dip and look I know a of you guys bought the dip I bought the dip I sold some puts we'll see how Nvidia plays out it's at 125.638 117s even though yesterday held around 124 for the majority of the day so I don't know at 9:30 we're going to have to see how it plays out but what I do know is meta and Microsoft crushing earnings saying that cloud compute demand is not going away saying capex demand is not stopping because we need to keep out innovating our competitors especially with Alibaba popping up models out of nowhere I mean when that happens you would imagine that these guys have to keep spending because they definitely don't want to lose the AI race to a company in China much less a company in the United States that would lead to more demand not less demand for NVIDIA here is the AI crypto Zar David Sachs speaking about the relationship between China and the US when it comes to AI this is where deep SE Innovation is is they they have managed to get more efficiency out of out of chips they're squeezing more juice out of the chips and they kind of have to because of the export controls which limited um Advanced chips going to China they've had to learn how to be more efficient so necessity has been the mother of invention for them that being said there are still great advantages to having a lot of chips the number of chips and I think that this is an area where America can continue to lead is in a buildout of of this infrastructure and having the most advanced chips and so I think it's a little bit of an overreaction to say that America doesn't need big AI data centers anymore I I think we need the buildout of these big AI data centers I think president Trump has expressed support for them and I think we need to make it easier to build those data centers to get them uh permitted and licensed and to get power generated electricity for those data centers uh if we scale the biggest data centers it is still an advantage the uh it is true that deeps has shown new ways for AI models to be efficient and I think RI companies are going to learn and and adopt those efficiency techniques as well but you still want to be able to scale compute and uh the data centers are are essential for that is there IP theft here did they steal some of what they were able to scale up here from us and do we need to close the doors on what we're doing in terms of uh invention and Technology well it's it's possible there's a there's a technique in AI called distillation which you're going to hear a lot about and it's when a one model learns from another model effectively what happens is that the student model asks the parent Model A lot of questions just like a human would learn uh but AIS can do this asking millions of questions and they can essentially mimic the reasoning process that they learn from the parent model and they can kind of suck the knowledge out of the parent model and there's substantial evidence that what deep seek did here is they distilled the knowledge out of open ai's models and I don't think open AI is very happy about this and I think one of the things you're going to see over the next few months is uh our leading AI companies taking steps to try and prevent distillation and so we'll see if uh if if the leading a companies can prevent distillation by thirdparty companies uh that would definitely slow down some of these copycat models so you got David sax AI cryptos are basically saying hey we think a lot of this stuff is stolen and the data centers and necessity for compute is not going away Palmer lucky founder of andal here's what he wrote last night at his take on this deep seek is legitimately impressive but the level of Hysteria is an in indictment of so many the five million number is bogus it is pushed by Chinese hedge fund to slow investment in American AI startups we did talk about that theory yesterday the idea that Chinese hedge funds went short the US market they pumped a number to disrupt the AI trade got the market to overreact to it they covered their short and then they went long the day after there's no proof of that but it is a theory that's out there um because even you know American hedge funds engage in this type of manipulation so you could imagine that China if they had a stat like5 million that could disrupt Nvidia they would take advantage of that service their own shorts against American Titans like Nvidia and hide sanction evasion America is a fertile bed for scops like this because our media apparatus hates our technology companies and wants to see President Trump fail we have so many useful idiots uncritically reporting Chinese propaganda as fact because on some level they want it to be true they love seeing hundreds of billions of dollars wiped off the market of our largest companies so Palmer Lucky's take which is a not a take that should be surprising anyone given he runs andril is that this is Chinese propaganda and the media running with this narrative is um continuing to to to propagate Chinese propaganda and that there is no way in hell that a Chinese company is going to Dethrone the Empire that Nvidia has built off of a claim that they built a foundation model for $5 million so that's the argument that Palmer lucky made last night and I think a lot of people the tech industry as well are starting to agree with that take so that's everything on Nvidia last thing I'll say right here which actually no that that's that's pretty much it with Nvidia I don't think there's anything else there yeah there's no other update for NVIDIA uh asml earnings was decent meta Microsoft today is going to be important and then we'll just take one look at in the pre-markets then we'll move on to some macro stuff um down 2.4% we got to see we got to see if this one breaks below 12524 today yesterday was a nice reversal dude it hit 116 for a couple of seconds and then it made its way to 122 and then by the end of the day it ended at 128.
n that's incredible right is a really nice reversal so I today will be the third day of the three-day Rule and so we'll see how much this is able to bounce or keep the spot that it's at that's it's at right now KeyBank did upgrade meta to 750 all right so let's start with that this is the first poll in the chat today what do you guys think meta pumper dump I am so torn on this I want to say they're going to pump to the moon and they're going to go up another 10% on average they go up about 7even to 8% and I want to say the Street's going to love everything Zuck says and I think that's going to happen but then I think man they've pumped so much going into earnings it's a little scary and I don't know what they're going to say to get the market to give them another seven to eight percent I don't know I'm torn on this but we're g to find out later here today um Okay cool so that's all the coverage on the video let's move on to macro so before we get into economic macro stuff here's an update from the White House as a content creator this was pretty surprising in a good way here's what White House Press Secretary Caroline levit who is the youngest press secretary ever said yesterday we also again encourage anybody in this country whether you are a Tik Tock content creator a blogger a podcaster if you are producing legitimate news content no matter the medium you will be allowed to apply for press credentials to this white house and as I said earlier uh our new uh media website is um White house.gov neww media and so we encourage people to apply again as long as you are uh creating news related content of the day and uh you're an legitimate independent journalist you're welcome to cover this white house we sorry if the audio was a little low on that but essentially what she said uh is that um if you are a independent content creator you can apply for a White House Press pass and it I mean I did not expect the Trump Administration to have that type of policy when it comes to Media but when you think about it it makes a lot of sense why does it make a lot of sense well um they won the election through Independent Media content creators journalists podcasters Etc and so you have the Biden Administration that uh that uh rejected 400 different media organizations that they did not feel deserved to be in the White House Press briefing room you've got the Trump Administration saying hey we don't care if you're Fox News we don't care if you're some random Joe Schmo who built up his podcast on Tik Tok and is covering the White House if you're in politics you've got an opinion and you've got somewhat of a following you are encouraged to apply to be a uh a a press reporter at the White House and get some exclusive access that has only been reserved for the Legacy Media companies like the CNN's msnbc's foxes of the world so I know all you guys are telling me to apply I think I might apply for it who knows I might apply for I obviously I don't live in DC and I wouldn't be able to come to the Press briefing every day but maybe I'll apply and if I ever do get a chance to go to DC they would let me come into the room but it's pretty incredible it's pretty damn incredible so from a um journalistic perspective I think I I look I know a lot of people have different opinions on Trump I get it and this is not even I think I don't even think this is a political statement I just think for the concept of free speech and more and more people having access to democratized news sources what am I doing right now on this live stream it is a independent way to create content around the stock market that is not um that is not in the in the Confluence of mainstream media like CNBC or Bloomberg right I'm not saying those media Outlets are bad either they have their their pluses their minuses but but the point is independent creators having an opportunity to access uh an audience and to build a platform is just special to me it's just really as a content creator it's very special to me and as as people that want to create content in the future that maybe want to do what I'm doing one day the fact is it's possible you got to work your ass off you got to take constant abuse from this chat for three hours uh cyberbullying you that you know freaking Andrew Ross sorin doesn't have to deal with that but if you're willing to go through that I mean you can you can you can you can build a platform so I just I like this I like this policy a lot I like that this is a 27-year-old White House Press Secretary this is not some 45-year-old or 50-year-old that like is trained in the world of PR this is someone who has came up on New Media that's probably why the Trump Administration picked them because they know she can speak to the youth and and they want the youth to be listening because the youth is going to be voting for new presidents one day and now they're allowing different Outlets of people to gain access to this content so I think it's amazing I think it's amazing I'm a big big big fan of it as an independent content creator and um again this is just one of those things that I think is not the worst thing in the world in terms of the Trump administration's policies and I think I don't even think that's political bro I think if you just care about like free speech and open opinions you've got to agree that's a good idea allowing more independent voices to come and cover the the United States government Chad is here in the chat all you need to do is say it goes green and red all day yes exactly that's as long as we switch well we're going to be doing a lot of uh traffic light coordin with Microsoft meta and Tesla I was on the phone with Steve last night and we were both so mad that all three of them are happening at one moment because it's going to just be chaos at 4M with all these numbers trying to navigate everything that's happening but today there's going to be a lot of traffic light coordination between uh red green and yellow on all these companies all right let's get into macro so first piece of macro news Marjorie Taylor green has bought some stocks she bought 15K of Bitcoin 60k of Tesla 15K of meta 60k of Amazon 4 5K of Johnson and Johnson so uh just to keep everyone updated Nancy Pelosi is not the only one trading Maybe marjerie Taylor green ends up becoming the next Nancy Pelosi who knows but she did buy these five assets Bitcoin Tesla Amazon meta Johnson and Johnson I do like that she bought Amazon meta and Tesla just because it shows that if Congress is relatively bullish on big Tech um and they're putting you know some money uh against those names then at least there's not something glaring that they know that we don't know about big Tech that could lead to you know some potential decline on earnings so we'll see what happens today with those three companies but she is invested in those three uh second headline that we have to look at so I said there would be an update on S&P 500 companies that are now beating uh last time we had about 53 companies report which was 11% of the overall Index this time we are uh having 103 companies report which let's do the math right there that's basically 20% right yeah 20% 100 divided by 500 so about 20% of companies have reported 79% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beat on EPS 79% the median of those 79% beat by 6.1% which was a surprise that the market did not expect again this is really hard to imagine that uh that earnings are bad or earnings are not good when 79% almost 80% of the companies that have reported so far we still have 400 left but still 80% of companies are beating on the top and the bottom line 91% of tech companies have beat 79% of cyclical 78% of defensives 100% of communication Services which I believe Verizon T-Mobile and AT&T reported they beat on the top and the bottom line I think those are the three names that they're referencing when it comes to communication by the way T-Mobile beat today this morning T-Mobile I think is up 5% in the pre-market 7.7% T-Mobile doesn't move like that so T-Mobile getting a really nice boost 84% of financials beat 50% of real estate that makes sense housing Stills in a little bit of an issue 67% of energy 86% of healthcare 70% of commercial and then 100% of utilities have beat on the top and the bottom line so I mean just from a pure macro perspective I think that's relatively bullish we got a lot of companies left to report but as long as they continue to do what they need to do then I don't think that's going to be the worst thing in the world going into S&P 500 earnings to end the year um update from Tesla so Tesla has earnings today and they just shared a new video last night of cars driving themselves from the factory into the loading dock autonomously here is the video right here I don't think there's audio in this video but this came out late late last night I think at like 1200 a.m.
and uh really cool to see dude if you're an investor that literally cares about FSD as the overarching thesis when it comes to Tesla it is nice to see the cars actually drive themselves from the lot and do it in an autonomous way now Tesla's Main account is also tweeting about robots they're like tweeting memes about robots this morning and as much as I love that they're tweeting memes about robots the take I heard from some people is that yeah Tesla's definitely gonna screw up earnings because the Tesla social media account is like trying to shift the energy to like robots and so one could make the argument that all right why at 6:33 amm are you Tweeting uh this tweet right here the future will have lots of robots you know some people are like all right wait a second can we talk about earnings why why are we talking about robots now nonetheless Elon responded sure will 55 minutes ago my take on earnings and I think it's a bit of a wild card take but nonetheless this is my take is that elon's gonna pump Optimus I think Elon might pump Optimus I think this might happen I think especially if the numbers aren't that good which I don't know at this point if the numbers are going to be good I know they missed on deliveries I think energy is going to be phenomenal um and then the cost of good sold was the lowest it was ever in Q3 2024 I think at 31,000 a vehicle if that can come down which I'm skep Le that can come down because they had so many discounts they had I got I got my Tesla because a 0% APR so I don't know exactly how that number is going to play out but if the numbers are less than amazing which Tesla trading at a you know 200 PE 1.5 trillion market cap I think the Market's expecting them to be decent elon's gonna have to pump something and although Tesla does dump pretty much every earnings I think there's been one earnings in the past five quarters where Tesla went green and that's when the stock was at 138 I remember this because I bought a call option at 155 and then it gapped up to 155 and then I learned IV crushes and I I lost some money but um the the I I think I think Tesla's going to have to pump something they're either going to have to pump a $30,000 car which hopefully is coming out in the next six months they're gonna have to pump unsupervised FSD in Texas and California being launched as a beta or they're gonna have to punch robots it's one of the other and I kind of think my Wild Card guess is they're gonna say something about robots I think elon's gonna mention something I think he's gonna spend some time even if it's not any definitive like oh we launched this new partnership with Walmart to get more robots he's going to make arguments about progress they've made and even if the numbers are coming out of his ass as long as the street thinks okay so Optimus is like another growth curve for Tesla that we're not factoring in it really depends on how confident he's GNA be when saying this stuff A lot of times Tesla trades on his on his um on his on his emotions and I remember three quarters ago you could just tell he was bored and he didn't want to be there and the stock was down like 15% and the last earnings he was pretty excited and uh he wasn't like you know he wasn't taking questions in a sort of nonchalant why are you asking this question type of way he was actually answering it enthusiastic way and maybe we're going to see what happens with Elon here today in the same way meta 69% of you said pump 31% said dump so let's do Tesla pump or dump um and see what people say h this one again this one's even more confusing than meta I have no idea dude I have no idea all I know is if we see a massive dump I am buying but I don't know if we have to get a massive dump especially with the S&P 500 companies beating as much as they're doing in the overall Market being elevated speaking of S&P 500 companies beating here's another piece of macro news the shorts have thrown in the towel the S&P 500 ETF short interest has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years 15 years this is insane I mean like I thought the first stat I thought was pretty bullish for those that are just joining and missed the first stat of the day we shared it was that uh $4.3 billion was entered into the NASDAQ 100 ETF QQ QQ on Monday after or during Nvidia 17% decline this is the highest level of money into that ETF since 2021 which is just Insanity the fact that it's been a bull market for three years and on the day when Nvidia dropped 600 billion you get the biggest inflow since 2021 but then I feel like this stat is is is up there to be just as big in terms of the shorts throwing in the towel and they're not shorting the S&P because they can't trust that the short is going to work out now one could interpret it as bearish by saying hey there's too many people that uh that are bullish so you can make that argument that there's just way too much bullishness here but then again maybe there's bullishness for a reason maybe there is bullishness for a reason it costs money to be short in perpetuity that is correct it cost money to be short in uh in perpetuity so we're g to see we're going to see after the Bell if the S&P 500 continues to maintain this short interest if the NASDAQ continues to get these ETF inflows let's do all eyes on Nvidia for the Bell we got about 20 seconds it's down 1.95% uh 62% of you guys say dump on Tesla wow all right so we got some Skeptics here on Tesla uh jpow speaks later today you got meta you got Microsoft you got Tesla it's GNA be a wild wild Day in 2025 but that's why we invest for these days to see how this plays out and what the future of the economy looks like all right Wednesday January 29th the stock market 9:30 a.m.
is now open wake your ass up here we go Nvidia is down 126.5 1.93% so Nvidia opens down 2% again overnight at about 12 a.m. last night it was up 3% at 131 now it's at 126.5 so you're getting a little bit of a dump right here a little bit of rejection at 127 it was ending the day at 129 yesterday right now at 26.7 paler was at 81 yesterday paler right here at $8.79 not bad on poun here that's up about half a percent Planet labs this company beat on their earnings they're up 13% right now Reddit is up 2.63% Starbucks is up 5% Starbucks also had earnings we're going to talk a little bit more about Starbucks in a bit because they had earnings and we're going to talk about all the other companies that reported this morning because we had a couple of them uh but Starbucks decent earnings beat on the top and the bottom line and they guided for what was better than what the street thought it would be so the street has them up 5% they're also kind of reorganizing their menu and that's getting the street to be excited in terms of the cost savings that Starbucks can have Amazon almost at alltime highs 239 it did hit alltime highs yesterday Google at 197 I bought 50 shares of Google yesterday at 195 so I'm into the Googs when it comes to equities I had calls but now we are in stock Google right here at 197.50 meta is down a little bit on the day 672 micro strategy is up micro strategy actually got upgraded to $515 by I'm forgetting the name of the firm I think it was Oppenheimer I'll get it in a second but they got upgraded by a firm that doesn't really cover crypto that much and they decided that micro strategy is going to be bullish when it comes to crypto Bitcoin right here at 102,000 Tesla right here at 394 S&P 500 at 603 The Q's at 521 on the day AT&T is at 2472 Boeing's at 181 that's up 1.9% General Motors after having a 9% down day is a little bit green to start the day AMD getting some green AMD was still red yesterday getting a little bit of reprieve today up about 2% pounder just went red below $80 Nvidia continues to fall down 2.24% now at 126 11 holding 126 we'll see if it drops below 126 back to 125 rocket lab did get upgraded to $32 today I'm forgetting the name of the firm it wasn't City Bank it was another one uh but they upgraded them to 32 today and so rocket lab getting a little bit of love right here 2.35% they were upgraded to 35 by City Bank uh early last week and that's when they pumped 30% off that upgrade micro strategy right here still green Tesla goes red slightly S&P goes red slightly Nvidia there you go below 126 125.95 Nidia and then back to 126 it's holding 126 nicely but it's struggling to maintain that last level right there at 125.95 so that's up about uh half of a percent oh key blank yes key blank upgraded rocket lap to 32 bucks mizuho upgraded Sofi to 20 as well correct oh The Firm that upgraded micr strategy I just remembered is mizuho which again they don't really cover crypto like that so I was surprised they actually covered mstr but uh they upgraded them as well and then they upgraded SOI 20 which uh I think is reasonable I think Sofi probably deserves to be 20 even if I have you know even if I don't love their app that much that's that's not a bare case for Sofi that's just a reason why I as a user don't use the product that much but Sofi in general did get upgraded Two Times by NM and mizuo to 20 bucks and so if more upgrades come into the 20s and they continue to crush it hopefully we get that range going into next earnings Nvidia right here 125.81614610 but I think it's up 10% over the past month Alibaba has done incredibly well Baba stock um yeah 16% year to date which is amazing I mean Alibaba last year barely moved until China finally stimulated so uh nice to see Alibaba getting a little bit of a bid right there Alibaba remains to be one of the most undervalued companies in the world it just has a big risk associated with it which starts with three letters CCP but nonetheless these guys have like uh 100 or 120 billion in cash and 200 billion market cap like it's kind of insane but you know people are just scared to invest in them because of China now the new model that Alibaba released last night that is better than deep seek I think the Market's up on that news on Alibaba up 3% right here because essentially the Market's thinking okay Baba's gonna be a competitor when it comes to Ai and if they can open source and create these models that's an AI play that we might not have thought of before and that's why Baba is getting the bid right here Celsius down 1.7% Celsius continues to get hit badly their earnings is going to have to show a decent number of uh pep Pepsi related earnings growth which went away last quarter and so if they can show that Pepsi Revenue coming back that'll be good for them if not that's not going to be the best Tempest AI is up 7% this is the Nancy stock this is the Nancy stock getting a little bit of love right here Pepsi not Pepsi Tempest up 6.5% djt is up 10% so I didn't cover this news yet so let me bring it to you guys right now uh djt bought a fintech yes Donald Trump's social media company bought a fintech and they bought it for or sorry they invested 250 million in a fintech and um um they are launching crypto Services via and ETFs via this fintech and also they are announcing a new brand called Truth fi which I imagine stands for truth Finance uh and they're partnering with Schwab that allows people to invest $700 million of their cash reserves into ETFs Bitcoin related Securities and customize separately manag accounts so basically djt is getting a little bit of a fintech bid right here uh again djt the company does about $4 million in Revenue market cap is about eight billion obviously it's trading off the sentiment around Trump more than anything but now that they're expanding into fintech I guess that's getting some momentum for them um so there you go truth F when it comes to djt smci right here down half% SOI back to 16 there you go SOI back to 16 not bad SOI back to 16 Lending Club had a crappy earnings they're down 15% Lending Club did not have a fund earnings uh so it's kind of funny because a lot of the analysts that are bearish soofi like KBW they're bullish Lending Club and obviously this this spread trade has gone the opposite direction so Lending Club right here down 15% Sofi recovering back to 16 T-Mobile incredible earnings up 7.49% uh will pull up a lot of these company earnings and go through them in just a second but they beat on the top and the bottom communication Services it looks like it's getting a bid AT&T Verizon an T-Mobile all of them crushing um proving that people are signing up for internet they're probably upgrading their internet at home and on cellular and uh they're definitely not you know canceling their internet which makes sense because no one can live without the internet also there's a starlink headline on T-Mobile that happened last night that's another thing that's probably pumping it uh T-mobile um and apple are working with starlink to bring more broad uh band access across the world that headline broke at like 9900 p.m.
last night let me just get the sentence it is yeah apple SpaceX and T-Mobile have been quietly collaborating to bring starlink satellite support to iPhone users according to Bloomberg so if you can bring some starlink to your Apple iPhone not the worst thing in the world apple right here down about 1.2% was up 100% last year I could not have predicted ever United would be up 100% in a year uh they did partner with Starling back in September and that's when they really started moving so who knows maybe starlink has the Golden Touch right here and if you partner with them the market gets excited for the increased productivity and increased level of services you could sell with access to more broadband internet and so T-Mobile right here up 7.5% Nvidia getting hit down 2.7 let's see if it can hold 125 let's see if Nvidia can hold 125 125 5.8 right here down 2.4% reddit's up 1.89% Tesla 394 that's down 1% I like Tesla going red before earnings I think there's a better probability of a pump I think if it was like 420 going to earnings it's a better probability of a dump so not the worst thing in the world to see Tesla down right here on the day why is NVIDIA crashing honestly I don't know I think uh because I think the asml news was bullish I think all this stuff were find out this morning about open AI uh proving that deep seek stole a ton of gpus that's bullish because it means that you do need the computational power that Nvidia provides to be able to build their chips and to be able to build these models but um again yesterday could have been a technical bounce and today's a technical retracement and it's relatively normal for this price action now if we get back to 120 118 119 that would be like an eraser of everything i' gained yesterday uh which would be kind of surprising to me I don't think that would happen but I guess we'll see later today if that does happen ums is dumping as STS let's take a look at them yeah why are these guys down 8% especially when rocket lab's up they already did the dilution did they do more dilution today that's weird I don't think they should be down that much on a space headline unless there isn't any space headlines yeah I don't see anything here no this is weird that's weird 8% dump is weirds dumping from Apple partnership with starlink ah that actually makes more sense dude the market is so narrative driven you find one thing it's like it's like these hedge fund managers are like all right sell this we heard this news buy this buy this sell this it's like it just literally moves off headlines any headline like all right sell that buy this sell that buy this but nonetheless that's what happened so yeah I would that that makes sense starlink could be a reason why ests is not going to get that bid with T-Mobile instead and that theoretically could be could be taking it down Nvidia are we holding 125 kind of we got 5 before we give up 125 44 cents selling pressure is still strong on Nvidia meta as well down 1% now meta gapped up like 8% over the past week so I think that's uh reasonable crowd strike as well taking a breather from going up 8% yesterday vertiv is up and VST is up interesting verv and VST are up they're recovering Nvidia is down grab is down about 0.22% Robin at 4905 robinin kind of chilling at that 48 49 level Amit what do you think about the SoundHound dilution I didn't even know that they did dilution but it makes sense they're a small company they probably need to raise some cash uh Stock's at 14 though I mean the stock was at like $2 last year so if you got an early you're probably doing very well but um I wouldn't blame them for diluting I mean when you're this small of a company raising money at these elevated prices is not the craziest idea Tempest is up 10% I don't know if there's a headline there but Tempest getting some really strong momentum right here this thing got hit a couple days ago after going up 30% but now it's holding the 50s for tempest AI um okay let's look at some other company earnings let's look at some other company ear earnings so we had T-Mobile let me pull that up right here uh T-mobile beat on the top and the bottom 257 versus 238 that's a beat on EPs and then 21.8 billion versus 21.3 billion that's a beat on Revenue so T-Mobile continuing the trend of a beat on the top and the bottom we had DHR that missed on Revenue by two cents a beat on EPS by about 100 million so not bad slight beat on Revenue slight Miss on EPS you then had GD General Dynamics they beat on EPS 415 versus 403 13.3 versus 12.8 to for uh revenues so a beat on the top and the bottom GD is down about 2% right now General Dynamics nothing too crazy but they did get a beat on the top and the bottom line which is good then you had yeah I guess that's pretty much it then you had asml which we already talked about in the morning asml beat on the bookings by over 50% and that's what got the market excited but those were the main earnings for today after today uh in the evening we are G to get a lot more earnings also the NASDAQ had earnings today as well they are a company listed on the NASDAQ um and they are down 5.7% I think they beat on the top and the bottom but their guidance was a little low I'll get those exact numbers but those guys are down 5.8% I didn't know the nasdaq's a$ 43 billion company I think the mo the mo they make most of their money through fees if I'm not wrong I've never studied the NASDAQ as a company maybe it's one to dive into but uh pretty large company 50 billion and I think most of their money comes from listing fees if I'm not wrong but um they are down right here 5 per.
Nvidia 124 wow are we actually dipping here on Nvidia 120 wow 24.7 Market's giving back some of the gains if it goes below 124 uh that's when you're when you're challenging the three trillion do market cap I guess we'll see if that happens uh 124.0 on Nvidia why is snowflake down good question I don't know I guess all of SAS was up a lot yesterday let's see if SAS as a sector is coming down yeah all of SAS is down snowflake is down because all of SAS is down I think what this is is the pre- tech earnings Jitters this happens pretty much every time before Tech earnings you tend to get a lot of people scared and they pull out of the market uh I mean the fact that money market funds went up last week before Trump got inaugurated you know people were scared and um they they put some money on the sidelines so that might be happening today as well Crow strike into it twio gitlab atlin Oracle Salesforce paler now granted a lot of these names were up like 3 to 4% yesterday so it makes sense it's a health of retracement but it's also probably a little bit of fear because if meta or Microsoft don't crush in particular for the SAS names that's what affects them more really Microsoft with Azure Cloud demand because the Microsoft doesn't have as much Cloud demand a lot of the cloud demand is coming from the software companies and so when you kind of put two and two together you start asking do the software companies have as much demand if they're not uh paying for Azure now I think AZ is going to crush it I think they're going to grow at 30% like they have been for the past couple of years but the guidance is going to be important for Microsoft uh crypto stocks are also down Robin down 1.3% Bitcoin at 102 coinbase is up a little bit they got upgrades today by two to 290 from 270 clean spark right here 10 bucks that's flat the Bitcoin miners again have not been a good trade in 2024 and they have not been a good trade in 20125 either Marathon right here 18 bucks riots at 11 Bitcoin 102 and then micro strategy is slightly green at 337 here right now let's check on our Quantum and spec names they are half green half red Cubit is down 1.76% IQ is up retti is up d-wave is slightly down Faraday future is up 10% Archer up a little bit big bear is up a little bit SoundHound is down micro strategy is up GameStop and amcr down so spec is kind of 50-50 here in terms of green versus red and then djt again that's expanding into the fintech world they are up 7.9% on the day paler I think is down 2% yeah paler down about 2.03% here right now um what about energy infrastructure let's look at that is that catching a little bit of a bid um we have all of them green yes next decade is green embridge is green ET is green Kinder Morgan is green not crazy green but a little green and then all of our max sevens are I think red except for no all of them are red apple Microsoft meta Google Amazon Nvidia Tesla all of them are red all of them are red yeah where's OKO where is oako ok's Green as well up 3% interesting interesting so we got oh there you go Nvidia nice little green candle to 125 I don't know I it's very early we got to see how Nvidia plays this out maybe that was the dip for the day 12450 but it's holding that 124 126 level like even in that range so at least it's encouraging to see it not tread all the way back down to the 116s when are Tesla earnings at 400m today 4:10 probably is when the results come out I think meta comes out at 405 Microsoft tends to be at 405 so I think we'll get meta and Microsoft before Tesla but um then we will get Tesla Chris says add VG to the liquefied Natural Gas to the energy infrastructure play all right let's add those to the list VG is a company that just went public Venture global and they are also in the energy infrastructure space and we'll add shenir energy as well I know that's another big one so we'll keep up with these two names as well VG actually I think do they have a crappy IPO if I'm not wrong VG they are down I think they're I think I think they're down like 20% so their IPO wasn't the best if I'm not wrong um where do they IPO at they ipoed at 25 yeah they're at 20 all right so they're down a bit from their IPO maret I guess trying to understand their business model entirely but that one is down ET and embridge right here are up about half a percent on the day yeah let's add VST and VRT to the list as well VST and VRT let's add those to the list um AMD is AMD up AMD is up slightly even though Nvidia is down even though Nvidia is down Chris says they were originally going to list at 60 then 25 than 20 yeah it looks I guess they I guess the bankers didn't think they had enough demand for prices at 60 that tends to happen on a lot of these IPOs it's like if if the bankers can't find enough demand for buying at these which is why 2021 was crazy because the bankers would set any damn price like people bought Robin Hood At a freaking $40 billion market cap on IPO I mean that that's why Banks made so much money in 21 they were making so many fees off the IPO underwriting it was ridiculous and and ironically we haven't had any IPOs yet I know we're only 29 days into the year but we have not seen the flurry of IPOs people talked about so hopefully it starts happening but uh hopefully those IPOs are also appropriately priced because I don't want to pay 50 billion for Discord that would not be fun to do but if you can get Discord at 15 billion I feel like you know I don't know the numbers but just off the bat it sounds a bit more reasonable and less egregious than some of these 2021 IPOs that got priced at anything um oh yeah gev let's add gev G Veron NOA to this list as well are they up today they are up today Jason said he bought the stock when it got hit on uh on on on the Nvidia Black Swan Monday event um Nvidia back to 126 all right showing some strength showing a little bit of strength right here down 2% let's see if it can go green not bad not bad at all showing a little bit of strength up from 124.5 what wait what is Elon gonna say when he has asked about the impact of the EV credit going away I think elon's gonna say the same thing he said a while ago which is that he doesn't care um I mean we remember elon's thoughts on subsidies he in general was a fan of of getting rid of all subsidies again I think Elon does feel like he's playing a lot of 4D chess if we can get rid of the overall subsidies because rivian polstar all those companies won't benefit from it but look although that's a 4D chess argument logically I again I just I would not have bought my Tesla without the EV tax credit so that's why in November I was really quick to do it dude I made the decision super quick because as soon as Trump got elected I was like all right there's a good shot this goes away and they have 0% APR but I would just imagine there's a lot of people throughout the world rocket lab right here 2953 that are also you know they need an incentive to to buy an expensive car like 45,000 50,000 for a car is not a small amount of money especially when you know if you can get a used car for 25,000 so it's like that $75 credit 7500 credit was definitely an incentive to get there let's let's re let's rewind to that video because it's been a while since we heard it and we have earnings coming up today so maybe Elon Echoes the same statements but here's what Elon said a couple years ago on that $7,500 EV credit we don't need the $7,500 tax credit um I would say honestly I would just can this whole bill don't pass it that's my recommendation what what about what about the the support though for the charging Network there are there are parts of this bill no no I mean you know do we need support for gas stations we don't so uh there's no there's no need for this uh for support for a charging Network I would delete it delete okay all right I'm literally I'm literally saying get rid of all subsidies and but also for oil and gas if you think about also how this affects your competitors is that is that impact how some of your view on this um I mean yes he's not gonna say it but yes maybe they need it I I don't know but I I I think just generally uh I'm in favor of deleting subsidies I mean when we saw at Tesla there were there were no EV subsidies at all and gasoline was super cheap uh we did not anticipate any subsidies uh that that came later and and that came the the $7,500 tax credit came as a result not a Tesla activ bit of General motives lobing for it um so you know um I would just say just just delete them all all right but there there's some other good things in this bill that some would argue I mean a lot of money you're marked for R&D would you want to put that towards something no okay as you can see Elon uh is not a fan of any of these credits sorry guys about the sound sometimes you get a video on Twitter and the sound is not amazing right here see this is where we need AI this is where streamyard needs to have some AI functionality and be like okay we can recognize the sound is low let's use some Ai and bump up the sound like like these are practical use cases of AI that we actually need in our day-to-day lives because I didn't know that video didn't have that good sound but like you know it's just a random video that you find uh but nonetheless you know El elon's argument was that hey uh I'm against subsidies in general so why would I need subsidies for EVS now I think there's a little bit of bravado coming from Elon because his argument is hey Teslas are so good you don't need a subsidy to buy it meaning like by the way T-Mobile 8% incredible uh the argument being hey rivian suck postar suck Lucid sucks but Teslas are great and people would rather spend uh a good chunk of cash on a really good vehicle over a crappy vehicle even if they don't get $7,500 off and I think that argument is okay the problem is like for the average person like myself that is not you know super super super high net worth but I can I can make the monthly payments if you give me a little bit of help $7,500 off is a is a is is it's enough help for me I mean like even if it was $5,000 off like that that's enough for me to pull the trigger but if you take that away it's just it gets harder to be like to justify it knowing that you could get you know something for a lot cheaper I now granted all my experience with FSD I can't imagine going back to a regular car dude because I don't drive anymore I don't drive the robot drives me which is insane but um yeah to get people to even have that experience you need to incentivize them and that kind of is the goal of Tesla right like let's make the car cheap let's get people into the car so they pay the 8,000 for the software it's just going to be a question of if that thesis plays out this year if they get rid of the tax credit Royal Caribbean right here up 2% Snapchats up a third of a percent or actually 1% 1130 and then Target right here up 0.07% uh you guys are saying Canada cut their rates is that true did Canada cut their rates Canada cut their rates baby Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 VIPs wow Canada cut their rates jpow is not going to cut our rates today but at least can Canada is beginning to cut his rates uh or their rates Canada cut interest rate 25 bips at 3% in January 2025 as markets expected to Mark 200 bips in rate cut since the start of the cutting cycle in 2024 in the meantime the the Central Bank also announced the end of quantitative tightening wow we're getting back to QE and we'll restart asset purchases in early March to support liquidity and traction of economic activity holy crap okay there you go QE is back baby inside of Canada um dude if JP said we're going to start repurchasing assets from the Central Bank oh my God stocks would like they would be up heavy that's probably not going to happen anytime soon because we are gung-ho about inflation getting to 2% but still uh not too bad so the Central Bank also noted that CPI converged to the 2% Mark so the only reason they're doing this is because they think they've defeated inflation and they got it back to 2% uh we have not done that yet we're at 2.9% headline and until we get there I think it's going to be hard to get the central bank to start doing some QE again but it'd be nice it'd be nice if we got there um call Tanner dude the biggest Cana Canadian company I know or like the the the one that has the most coverage is Shopify which was up 10% yesterday um but I don't know you know is this going to massively increase tons of liquidity for Canadian stocks also I don't know Tim Hortons was public did you guys know that Tim Hortons went public in 2006 I did not know Tim Hortons went public but uh yeah Tim Hortons I guess the Canadian version of Starbucks to an extent people would say it's better than Starbucks they went public um you got pter right here with a tweet as well so pter just tweeted in 2018 the US Army partnered with paler to build Advantage the platform recovered over 3.3 billion of unliquidated obligations in one year now this is not a new stat we knew about this already uh this came out in a press release about about I would say eight months ago that pter saved the US Army about four billion bucks with uh Vantage so I'm happy that they're tweeting it here but it's not like a new Stat or any like big headline that's different um I think now poun is getting ready for earnings and in the next three days we're going to see what the results look like I know a lot of people are antty because we didn't get a ton of a ton of headlines or PRS into January which I know is a bit different for pal here usually they do like four or five PRS going into the first month of the year that's happened for the past couple years but I think they're just head I think they're just head down working and you know I don't think they have a need to like prove the stock deserves to be higher or anything and put out these PRS I think they're just working and I think it comes down to what is the guidance because this thing either goes up or Goes Down based on 2025 guidance and no matter how many press releases they put out with different companies or the army or the military we need good guidance we need upwards of 35 to 40% growth or at least the inclination that we're going to get that and in four days we will find out how that plays out but if we get it would not be the worst thing for pounder again I did a video last night about how deep seek affects pounder you guys can watch it I'm not going to go super deep into it but my thesis there was that the reason pter gets the premium it's getting is because if deep seek comes to the conclusion or gets the market to come to the conclusion that the models are a commodity then the value exists in the oper operational infrastructure of those models which obviously ends up becoming uh ends up becoming a company and so it seems like you know that's why pter continues to get the bid we got Paul mer lucky on Fox Business he's probably talking about deep seek in China let's get his thoughts on what's going on here what do you think of this deep seek Chinese chatbot and do you believe that it's somehow the Holy Grail now and that everything else made in the USA when it comes to AI chatot should be tossed by the wayside well it's been pretty interesting getting to comment on AI stuff so frequently lately you know anderol started as an AI company almost eight years ago that you know the acronym of our company andril Industries is AI and when we started andril AI was kind of or AI was kind of a dirty word it was always five years in the future never here and obviously now we're in a race against China to develop artificial intelligence going to define a lot of our future economy now with deep seek specifically I don't really buy into a lot of it you you get a lot of media right now about how they spent just $5 million to train this model that is competitive or beating a lot of us options first of all is true they're not covering a lot of the costs uh that's not the cost of both of the models that they developed and I think the problem is they put out that number specifically to harm us companies you had a lot of useful idiots in Us Media uh kind of just mindlessly reporting that that's the case and uh you know China neither China nor the media nor deep seek has any kind of incentive to correct the record as a lot of us companies like Nvidia crash to the tunes of hundreds of billions of dollars so look it's a really impressive step they've definitely made some technological innovations but I don't think that people should take what they're saying at face value and they should realize that there are a lot of people cheering for the United States to fail there's people who are clearly cheering for our tech companies to fail and obviously president Trump to fail it's a shame that so many of them are in the United States yeah I was just I we said at the top of the show yesterday what is this Tech wre you're going to believe this okay we don't know anything about the cost assumptions that about the architecture or the algorithms it's not even that they're lying like you got to realize that the five million number that's out there is for one version of the model the other more advanced version they haven't put out any information on what it cost to train but you have a lot of people jumping onto that five million number reporting it as if that is relevant to the whole thing ignoring a lot of the infrastructure cost the R&D costs it's there's a reason they put out the news that way and if the stock market is any indication it's accomplishing exactly what they hope to so look we can recognize that Chinese AI is a real competitive threat without losing our minds over it and falling for CCP propaganda let me what do you guys think you agree you you you're messing with that take or you think that take is kind of off what do you guys think talk about propaganda when it comes to Russia Today Vladimir Putin came out the president of Russia and said we are going to be one of the world's leaders in drone manufacturing by 2030 he's obviously been stung by what Ukraine has been able to do you are at the the heart of drone manufacturing whether it's by land or sea or air give me a sense of what is going to happen at this Columbus Ohio plant and how you guys are the leaders here well the Columbus Ohio plant is really the realization of things that we've been working on for many years you know our very first pitch deck gave to investors eight years ago included a specific quote from Vladimir Putin where he was speaking at a technical college and he said translated from Russian the country that wins in the sphere of artificial intelligence will become the ruler of the entire world and so this is not uh Putin looking at asymmetrical Technologies like AI or drones and just now realizing that it's important for his own country he's been really ahead of the curve he was ahead of this back when a a lot of people even in the tech industry thought that it was a waste of time and that it was certainly not going to be the future of Defense on this kind of timeline um you know Putin's Putin's a pretty sharp guy on in this area and he understands that mass scale manufacturing of these types of systems is important our Columbus facility is really about hyperscaling manufacturing of exactly that type of system lowcost high-powered AI systems that are going to be able to deter Wars around the world and if necessary win them swiftly I see so what's the a big stick Theory but you know you're going to be making how quickly can you ramp up before we go Palmer because right now it's been said that if we had to be in a war with say for example China we'd run out of Munitions in eight days it's a huge problem in the United States is that we just do not have enough weapons we don't have enough missiles we don't have enough uh aircraft we don't have enough submarines and we have not set ourselves on a path to solve those problems I think president Trump has really made this a priority to get back back to reindustrialization of our defense industrial base to get to higher scale manufacturing that can deter China with a strength through Power sorry a uh a peace through strength posture um and we're going to be fully operational at Arsenal one our new Factory in 2026 we're going to be having a bunch so this is uh very similar to what Alex Cara pter has been saying right this idea of peace through strength and peace through strength I think personally it's a philosophy I agree with I think you know if you believe in any level of American defense you have to believe in that idea as well and I actually think that is kind of the potential bid that hits paler stock as well as we get more government deals when Trump really ramps up reindustrialization because a lot of that reindustrialization is not just building the raw weapons but it's having the software that is necessary to be able to meaningfully build a platform for those weapons I mean the case in point right here pter doesn't exactly work with Tesla but they work with Panasonic Energy North America that builds the batteries for Tesla and they are integrated into their Sparks Nevada Factory so you got a digital smart Factory using pter software to better make the batteries more efficiently for Tesla I would imagine uh maybe there's some partnership with pter andrel in the future in that Ohio facility who knows if that's the case but Panter andrel have partnered in the past and if there's any level of massive reindustrialization in terms of really building up American Defense building up artillery bu building up um Machinery building up all the things that are necessary to be ready if we went into a war uh it's not just going to be Hardware there's going to have to be some level of software um integrated into that and and one of the reasons it's getting a lot of contracts over the locked Martins of the world is because of ltis Lis is their software platform that helps them build on top of the existing ecosystem of infrastructure they have and quite frankly it you know their margins aren't the best for a hard for for for a hardware company because when you're a hardware company your margins kind of suck but they are better from what I've seen compared to the Rons of the world because that software Lattis platform does give them a bit of an advantage Jason says they are deaf using warp speed well I think I I think we yeah they are no we we definitely know this for a fact because at um at Devcon I think they uh they they presented and they said they were one of the first people using warp speed as well so yeah I forgot to mention that so we so we definitely know there's an integration of what pter is doing via the warp speed which is essentially Pan's re reindustrialization of America manufacturing operating system uh that in conjunction with andrel makes a lot of sense and I think there is a world where you start to see some moment not only on a company like andrel but obviously also on pounder because they work with andrel speaking of pounder uh here's a video we found last night Arie found this video and it's a hell of a video Cleveland Clinic has been working with pounder for the past three four years now here's um the CEO of Cleveland Clinic explaining how that partnership has been going with paler each solution we develop will be safe ethical and capable of being used at scale with palente here we created a digital twin of our most complex Hospital the goal was to simplify every variable in moving patients through the hospital and make it seamless this tool which is now being used by other Health Care Systems is the first commercially viable AI product co-developed by Cleveland Clinic take a look running a hospital is complex Physicians nurses hospitals outpatient centers operating rooms more than 30,000 patient encounters every day we're trying to orchestrate all of these moving parts and they all need to go perfectly before we continue with the video 30,000 patients a day thousands of hospitals this is why carp's been saying why are we talking about llms why are we not talking about how we can use them to save lives in a hospital a that's probably valuable from a financial perspective B that's valuable on a life or death perspective see that's where AI actually becomes meaningful in the real world and this is just another example of why paler is catching that bid from the market historically it's done through spreadsheets Post-its phone calls text messages with paler we were able to pull all of the data into a single place the virtual Command Center that will model the entire of Hospital operations we have three modules today Hospital 360 has transformed how we're able to place patients in beds we're able to do it in a quicker more efficient way I can see the predicted number of patients coming in for the day by building and I can see the number of predicted discharges coming out and I can see the number of patients who are waiting either in the emergency department or patients having surgery who need beds it's live in real time it's learning our data it's reading the patients notes and saying that's a potential discharge the nurse staffing Matrix you can actually see where you're overstaffed where you're understaffed everybody had a trusted view of the patient census and the nurse allocation it results in managing nurse assignments efficiently and effectively and in a way that's more predictable and leads to nurse manager satisfaction for utilization the objective function is how do we maximize the number of patients and procedures that we can do through each one of our operating rooms we're trying to make a smart system trying to model the problem properly that's work in progress this is another way we're innovating around patient care it's all about helping more people it's been transformative and just shows you the potential one could imagine managing from icus to step down units to floors to set the standard for being the best run Hospital in the world that's the ambition I think that was important to show bro because like when it comes down to poun actual operational use cases there's like a real use case there's a real implementation in video right here 125.30 I mean you heard what some of those nurses were saying in terms of how they can get patients in and out of those hospitals quicker than ever this is why you know I know people like like where's paler PR for the year they haven't had a PR yet it's not about the pr bro it's about what are they doing and I think on earnings we're going to get some real analysis from karp who's probably happy that everyone's waking up to the fact that llms don't matter and he's gonna talk about what C the Cleveland Clinic CEO just talked about which is that you need to implement these models if you're going to say that you're an AI company not just build the models and and if pter is one of the only companies doing that then I think we're going to get some more momentum AMD right here 2.7% pounder is down a little bit on the on the day 1.7% Shopify down about 14% Nvidia down 2.4% where is Snapchat Snapchat 3% okay there we go got a little bit of a move on Snappy chat I do have a swing trade on this one with 500 shares bought at 1070 uh targets about 14 bucks which is a bit aggressive I think on Snapchat but we'll see if we can get there Snapchat right here 2.5% on the day United Airlines up 1.3% apples down a little bit Tempest AI up 5% and then Sofi goes green 1628 on the day rocket lab as well going green 29.95 that is almost at 30 and then hoodie going green as well 4950 not bad not bad at all not bad at all but anyway yeah when it comes to pounder look I just I just think there's there's so much momentum and I think I'm happy the Street's waking up to the fact that models don't matter as much as results uh now we just need the growth dude now we just need the growth if we can get the growth if we can get the numbers this is gonna be fun this's gonna be a fun fun earnings because all the sentiments GNA be there you know karp's gonna walk in and he's gonna just be like I told y'all I told y'all it's never about the models it was about what you do with them but he's gonna say it in an intellectual way bro he's going to be like well the existential reality of how we conceptualize the nature of models means that when we interrogate the nature of the simultaneous multifunctional modals of how we he's just gonna go he's gonna go into that and then Western values is going to come up somebody's like well the Western values of blah blah blah blah blah and everyone's gonna be like damn this guy's smart we're buying this stock and then if they can get the growth to back it up that's gonna be good as well grab is grab going green grab where are we at on grab 464 okay 2% on grab 2% on grab not bad on grab um look I think grab's gonna have good earnings I think grab's gonna have a good earnings there was a couple of YouTube channels that started making some videos about grab last night and I was like oh we got retail that's coming in and they're starting to see some momentum in the stock I think I think this story is going to be so simple I think if they Crush earnings they Gap up to 550 you're gonna get a lot of retail that's like wait a second grab this is like a no-brainer and then it's gonna get upgraded to seven and eight and then by the end of the year hopefully we get some upgrades in the $10 range and then I think retail's going to get in and I think I think it's going to be like a Hood story that's not as explosive but still a story that's pretty good especially given they're trading at 30% cash but similar to pound here we need we need you we need we need really good Q4 results in order to to make this play out what would be the max of pter Beats earnings well pter moves like 20% on earnings so it could get to 93 94 if they really crush on earnings am I expecting that probably not I think uh pters extended already right so they're going to have to seriously Crush earnings and I I just don't expect an Nvidia yet I expect a good quarter not an Nvidia quarter um I think that's more Q3 Q4 but uh if it's a decent quarter I think we stay at these levels maybe Gap up to 85 break that alltime high if not if if we Gap even below five or 7% I think that's not horrible and by the way if we do go down 20% we're g to be back to where we were back in uh back in back in January at um at at where we were at uh early January 65 which is like okay cool 65 who cares right yeah either down to 63 or up to 92 that's kind of the technical range that uh Jason laid out last night as well so I wouldn't care if it's at 65 or 90 and if it's at 65 I'd be buying what time are you g to stream this afternoon 2:25 or 220 220 Eastern 2:20 pm.
Eastern I'll be streaming live grabs earnings is late February I think February 20th so they will be later in the month I'll be live at 7 p.m. because they're in Singapore so it'll be like a a late night stream for grab but their earnings are going to be late late uh that day in the US uh we have meta Microsoft and Tesla tonight meta Microsoft and Tesla tonight are you hedging for pounder earnings no we are going in raw no protection which by the way that's a good segue uh to what doge is doing so uh e uh this is what the Trump Administration did last night they are offering 2 million federal workers a chance to take a deferred resignation with a severance package of 8 months of pay and benefit 5 to 10% of the workforce is estimated to quit which could lead to around a hundred billion in savings uh and the reason I said it's a good segue is because Elon is not only uh you know getting the Trump Administration to start doing these things that are a bit more a bit more U uh a bit more friendly in terms of cost savings to the tax dollar but not as friendly to federal workers but uh Doge cancelled a $50 million payment to Gaza for condoms we were going to give Gaza $50 million for condoms and Doge canceled that last night so it's like I mean I don't know how you guys feel about that but you definitely can't say elon's not trying to find different Avenues to save some money uh and one of those ways is by cancelling condom shipments to Gaza here's the world Debt Clock they now have a doge clock right here they now have a doge clock right here and as you can see right here the Doge clock so far is saving $1 billion a day in the United States how do they get to this number it's all the things they're not spending on and all the things they're cancelling is what they're doing so this is what Doge wrote right here doge is saving the federal government approximately $1 billion dollar a day mostly from stopping the hiring of people into unnecessary positions deletion of Dei and stopping improper payments to foreign organizations all consistent with the president's executive orders it's a good start though this number needs to increase to3 billion do a day if Elon can save the government $3 billion do a day which I think is going to be very hard to get there but they're already at a billion based on what they're saying right here um dude that'd be pretty damn good that'd be pretty incredible and again Trump put out that statement last night that if you want to work for the federal government you have to show up and work if not you're going to get an eight-month Severance which is actually a very juicy severance package uh but essentially they're not playing around they're like hey either you come into work or you don't come into work if you work at the federal government now I have some federal employee friends they think it's kind of stupid because a lot of them think they can do their job from home just like a lot of tech workers probably think they don't need to come into office because they can do their job at home as well but Trump said we're five years past covid and just six% of federal employees work full-time in office this is unacceptable and as a result he's offered to buy them out of their contracts here today so look whether you like these policies or not at the end of the day we have to cut cost somewhere cutting cost is not fun just like buying the dip is not fun buying the dip on Nvidia 119 is not fun you gota you just got to suck it up and buy it uh so is cutting spending costs it's always going to be hard to cut costs in certain areas but eventually you have to cut them in some places to try to get some some level of of cost eradication okay we have RFK testifying we'll listen to a little bit right now I think he's on his opening statement let's listen to like a couple minutes of this and then we'll get back into some market news but he is going through a senate confirmation here today ranking member widen and members of this distinguished committee I'm humbled to be sitting here today as president Trump's nominee oversee the US Department of Health and Human Services I want to thank president Trump for entrusting me to deliver on his promise to make America healthy again I also want to thank Cheryl and kick and Bobby and all my other children who are here today and all the many members of my large extended family for the love that they have so generously shared okay so he's not saying anything really important right now he's just giving his opening statement we will get back to that later uh that is going to be a wild six hours for people in Congress to listen to because look at the end of the day I mean his voice is a little tough to listen to it is what it is you know I like RFK but it's tough to listen to him talk for a I mean people who listen to his four-hour Joe Rogan podcast I could not get through that bro it was a little tough a little tough to listen to that but uh we'll try to get some good clips of him speaking on certain issues that we care about Nvidia giving up 125 124.32607 America I wasn't born here so I had could you imagine this whole stream in an Indian accent that would be kind of wild I have a horrible Indian accent it's so bad dude it's so like I try to do an Indian accent and Indians they like dude don't even like you're just a disgrace to us right now can't do it um but I was born in the US and I have I don't know I never I never really learned I mean I know Hindi but not as well as I should know Hindi no I'm not going to do the accent bro it's so bad it's so freaking bad dude it's not good it's like not good at all you know I say it's not bad at all this one is not good at all like it's so bad bro like I like because I have some I I have a bunch of friends who are Indian and I'll I'll do an accident in front of them they're like dude you're like just don't even like don't even try dude you can't you can't do this and my dad has an accent because my dad was born in India my dad has a legit accent but I don't AMD right here up 2.76% Nvidia continues to get hit down 3.2% was not able to hold 125s oh my God bro everyone's saying do it what do I say the only thing I can say is what upu says from Simpsons all right I'm gonna try but it's bad bro it's gonna be so bad it's gonna be so bad okay what what do they say what is he he's like he's like uh okay it'll be a simple one right where they when he's like thank you come again all right I'm going to try to say thank you come again in in Hindi or in in Indie next it's going to be so bad though it's going to be yeah thank you please come again all right here we go dude it's gonna be so bad it's gonna be so okay can't even do it it's gonna be so bad dude it doesn't it doesn't even sound like it's Indian accent it just sounds like a like an idiot who's trying to act Indian even though he is Indian but he's not able to be Indian like it's so bad all right here we go three two one thank you see see this is stupid dude see that see like I can't even get to the point where I'm like thank you come again see like that's not an Indian accent that sucks that's not an Indian accent it's horrible it's not even a real Indian accent I'm telling you I can't do it I'm not like I just I'm too Americanized see it's it's a white guy accent trying to be Indie it's so bad bro it's not real it's you're not even trying no I am trying that's the sad part I am trying that's why it's bad I am trying I can't do it I can't I don't know how to do it dude I don't know how to do it I just I just I don't know I just I just suck at it that's why I didn't want to do it I told you guys I didn't want to do it because I don't know how to freaking do it I don't know how to speak on an Indian accent maybe one day I'll learn maybe one day I'll learn how to do it says I'm white and I can do a better accent yeah probably you can I can't get canceled for this I'm Indian there's no way you can cancel me for this that would be ridiculous I hope hopefully not who knows we'll find out thank you come again see like that's not even Indian bro that's like it's just like all right let's get back to Tesla it's so bad that's so bad meta after the bell and then Apple tomorrow has a buy rating and a 404 Target George always good to talk to you thanks for the time this morning thanks for having me Carl been a lot of whispers about uh buy side estimates on growth being closer to 10 than 20 and some expectations that musk will have to address that somehow tonight absolutely so there are a few key things that we're watching first like you mentioned 20 to 30% growth in deliveries let's see if they'll do that but we will say that the new model y looks spectacular and they have promised a couple new models obviously margins are really important but the sneaky really interesting thing that we're looking for is Elon musk's thoughts on deep seek and what that means for Tesla's massive investment in data centers and Nvidia ships and it's really also as a part of that category I don't think deep seek is going to impact Tesla's spend and if Tesla says they're reducing spend because a deep seek that would be something else but I really doubt that that's gonna be the case very very important our FSD take rates full self-driving how many people are opting to buy the AI software the autonomous software that Tesla's offering and I assume you believe that this reating in the uh the cost element of all of that is is is positive is bullish for the industry for tech at large and for Tesla in particular it's really important to your point uh but we would argue actually what's even more important than the power and the gpus needed to build AI infrastructure is the ultimate viability of the AI business models that are in theory geared to justify the dollars being allocated to power them you know like Tesla has voraciously been consuming Nvidia chips and is the leader in real world AI but we would argue that FSD take rates are a really good proxy on the broader success of AI business models and so far those FSD take rates are okay you know not great and we are very bullish on autonomy long term to be clear but if you recall the downfall of many Communications related stocks in 2000 was largely due to the fact of businesses failing to justify the significant capex they were building out so it's really important important to know not only how much they're investing but how viable the business models are and yeah I mean look he obviously has a point that we need to get the ROI Justified on the capex bend but I come on bro it's it's rocket lab by the way up 5% it's very hard to imagine that freaking Tesla's gonna stop spending to build FSD because of deep seek and if that somehow happens today bro meta Microsoft Elon come out and they say deep seeks a threat to how much we're spending on capex I don't know dude that would be that would be a hell of a headline but I just I think the probability of that is low uh rocket lab right here up 4.74% in general I think what we need to see from Tesla today is an update on that $30,000 car if they give any meaningful update on that then I think it would be exciting but that's what we're gonna have to wait to see later today M sounds Indian when he says Volkswagen dude I told you guys I have a bad accent I don't know how to do it I don't know how to do I don't know how to do the Indian accent I don't know I I grew up with a bunch of Indians in America but like I I still I grew up in America I went to American schools like I I talk to American Kids my like I just I didn't if I grew up in India I would have an accent but I didn't grow up in India I grew up in America so I don't know it's just hard for me to have an accent but it's funny for you guys to laugh at me try like I told you guys I can't do it D I would have to be like drunk or something to have a really good accent I'm just so bad at doing it um Nam thank you for the $5 Super Chat admit as someone who's also born here my Indian accent sucks and I get made fun of by my cousins all the time totally relatable see thank you I have someone on my side dude my sister can't do it either bro my like we just don't have accents because we were born in America and we we we grew up with American kids we talked in English our whole life and so yeah we kind of just suck at the accents but then again the accent's not like useful in any meaningful way unless I was going to become a Medan Russell Peters that guy can do an accent oh my goodness Russell Peters dude Russell freaking Peters talk about an Indian accent and he's actually American so he like he doesn't you know he's it's not like he was born in India but he can do that incredibly well am when are you doing a United Kingdom Meetup hopefully in the summer uh hopefully in the set up uh summer but uh the the Bay Area Meetup is definitely happening uh in February and I'm going to send the link soon for the telegram for everyone can join I'll give details probably by this Saturday all the details will be out this Saturday in right here 12403 um but Bay Area is happening in February and then the UK hopefully in uh in the summer oh yeah Russell Peters is Canadian sorry sorry he's Canadian you're right but see even Canada has a good uh Canadians have a good Advantage because Brampton is like filled with Indians so at least you know you have some moment and New Jersey's filled with Indians too I can't lie like I'm in New Jersey there's a lot of Indians but it's not it's not enough to uh to develop an accent all right 123 point 8 on Nvidia down a full 4% so nvidia's not getting any sense of love right here um Amit where was your father born in India New Delhi he was born in New Delhi so was my mom 123.
7 wow dude down 4% Nvidia getting nuked right here 123. eight uh I'm going to buy some Nvidia I'm buying it I'm buying buying 25 shares right here Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It Let's Do It buy 25 here we go we will now have 250 shares of Nvidia all right 123.
79 there we go by the way you see the new colors and Robinhood they updated the app yesterday they made it so much better dude they got rid of that stupid neon green it's like a really nice green now I think they heard everyone complaining about the neon green and so it actually looks nice now but there we go we got more Nvidia so now we have 250 shares of Nvidia at an average cost of $1 12844 there you go I don't know dude the more I hear about the AI compute thesis the more I think this is so stupid for this drop and the more I think Nvidia is just going to crush on earnings so I guess we'll see we have a few weeks left to see what happens now if zux messes it up today and says he's not spending as much on capex this this 123 dip is going to look pretty bad because I think we're going a lot lower than that but I just don't think Zuckerberg in five days is going to change his mind from spending as much as he was spending just a couple days ago when he said he's gonna spend 65 billion like and if that happens then we've got to reevaluate a lot of stuff I really don't think that's gonna happen I really don't think he's gonna say well yeah we saw what deep seek did and we're spending less if anything he should be like no no we got to spend more because now we know how much fast they innovating like we got to get as much gpus as possible to really make sure we maintain our Edge especially if they want to be the leading open source model so I mean I guess we'll see I guess we'll see how that plays out um Doug says admit wouldn't buy Nvidia when it was going from 100 to a, to 1,400 but now at 12,00 he's buying well you got to remember the reason I couldn't buy anything last year because everything was in hood and pounder so that August 5th dip when Nvidia was at 100 or it was going from 100 to 140 or I guess 100 to 12 1,000 to 1200 basically before the split dude this is the first year I actually have cash because it's it's so funny 2022 I had no cash because I put everything in the pounder and then it all it fell 50% or 80% then 2023 whatever cash I got I just put it into paler and bought the dip and just hoped paler would recover thankfully paler has done better and then 2024 it was all Hood in paler so this is the first year where I actually have money where I can like diversify Investments Tesla right here getting hit as well 1.4% um but who knows dude who knows maybe 123 is a steal maybe it's not I I I just think I think $600 billion in a day and then4 billion dolls going into the NASDAQ is the market calling BS on this entire Nvidia Decline and we're gonna have to see how it plays out from here amid today is an excellent day to sell some out of- the money covered calls on your Nvidia why today's Red why would today be the best day to wouldn't yesterday be a great day to sell out- ofth the money cover calls on Nvidia I feel like when it gaps back up to 128 that's when we sell some calls unless you think it's a hedge against meta and Microsoft dude I really I just I don't know bro I like I'm and that's why I bought the Nvidia dip just now I really don't freaking think meta or Microsoft are going to make capex guidance go so much lower that the Street's goingon to rrate Nvidia I just don't think that's happening I do not think that's happening maybe I'm wrong but I don't think that's happening uh J pal speaks a two I'll be live at 2:20 JL speaks at 2:30 we get the decision at 2m we get the decision as 2 p.m.
uh AMD how's AMD doing Nvidia still right below 124 AMD 116 AMD is up about 3% here on the day um smci not really getting a bid with Nvidia either smci 2810 that's down 3% rocket lab doing nicely up 2% grab as well up 2% grab um I think grab is the dollar is not down today so I don't know what grab's benefiting off of maybe it's just buyers coming in but yeah Dollar's actually up today not sure what's drivve and grab but it is green right now um uh what else what else what else Reed Hoffman was on CNBC today let me see well Reed Hoffman's interesting on his take I don't know does he like deep seek or not because he's a little bit more of a fan of China than not a fan of China I guess we we'll hear his take let let's listen to Starbucks first they crushed it on earnings let's get the Starbucks CEO and let's see what he had to say as well also we have some takes from Ray doio he was on the o in podcast so we'll get his take on AI and where we are in this state of the cycle just pure joy to do this job Starbucks res yeah look I am really proud of the progress that we made and you know you mentioned some of the challenges we're facing but I think I've outlined hey here are the four key things we're going to do to get this business turned around right first reintroduce the Starbucks brand to the world you know second uh we got to make sure our partners are supported the way they need to be supported it all starts and ends with them uh I think this Testament of 90% promote Within has really resonated with our teams and then also the idea of making sure that we simplify the process bring order to mobile order uh you know the third thing we said we were going to do is obviously bring back the idea of a coffee house Vibe uh hopefully you saw that with the condiment bar coming back you know when you stay in our stores now you're getting a ceramic mug some free refills and then obviously the other thing too is we got to win the morning and uh you're starting to see us do that uh and that's what I was really excited to see is we're starting to see progress as it relates to our partners being in position being supported correctly eliminating some of the noise so that we can get after the great craft the great quality and really have people experience you know the premum experience of Starbucks and okay Starbucks CEO he knows how to talk his book let's switch to RFK real quick let's see what he's talking about and then we'll get back to some other macro stuff uh let's share this right here I think he's taking questions now uh you made almost $5 million from book deals mostly promoting junk science in 2021 in a book called the measles book he wrote that parents had been quote misled into believing that measles is a deadly disease and that measel vaccines are necessary safe and effective the reality is Measles are in fact deadly and highly contagious something that you should have learned after your lives contributed to the deaths of 83 people most of them children in a measles outbreak in Samoa so my question question here is Mr Kennedy is Measles deadly yes or no the death rate from measles historically in this country in 1963 the year before the introduction of the vaccine was one in 10,000 let me explain what happened in Samoa in Samoa in 2017 or 2015 there were two kids who died following the MMR vaccine and and and the vaccination rates in Samoa dropped precipitously from about 63% to the mid-30s so they've never been very high and in 2018 two more kids died following the MMR vaccine and the government Samoa banned the MMR vaccine I arrived a year later when vaccination rates were already below the below any any previous level I went there nothing to do with vaccines I went there to introduce a medical in atic system would digitalize records in Samoa and make Health delivery much more efficient I never T gave any public statement about vaccines you cannot find a single Samoan who will say I didn't get a vaccine because of Bobby Kennedy I went in June of 2019 the measles House break started in August oh clearly I had nothing to do with the measles not only that Senator not only that if you let me finish had some time let me finor if you let okay this is g to be uh this is GNA be again six hours for those that are in Congress that's GNA be something to listen to I don't even think it's it's worth for us listening to it because it gets into so much stuff about vaccines and what he thinks about it and all that stuff I mean and you know everyone questioning him just wants to make him look bad so they're going to be asking gotcha questions all this stuff and he's going to be try to giving context you only have five minutes to ask a question he can't give context and even 30 seconds it's just it's goingon to be a mess granted I do think he's going to get confirmed I think he'll get confirmed um I think it'll be a same JD Vance is going to have to be the deciding vote 5150 but um yeah it's going to be a rough six hours for everyone that's listening right there all right let's get to Reed Hoffman let's get his take on AI let's see what he's thinking about deep seek and all that good stuff deep seek scrambling part of the narrative around American AI Supremacy shaking the stock market earlier this week in his new book our next guest is asking quote what could possibly go right with our AI future joining us right now is greed Hoffman partner at gly invest called super agency talk about the book but let's just the market in your mind for software AI for the chips for the energy space or is this overblown what's happening here well it's definitely overblown um I do think it's overblown think yes the level of reaction is is overblown there's a bunch of different things so one for example I think that you'd uh I actually always knew that we're were going to get to a bunch of smaller train models uh that have higher efficiency and targeting in certain ways and part of the way you do that is by training them from larger models right like part of what's obviously quickly emerging is well part of how this got trained this way is by uh some kind of access to a larger model right great and by the way that's part of the reason why the larger models are useful and part of what we will see this year next year is the use of the large models from the hyperscalers will be to train a bunch of different small models and compose them in different ways that's not news uh or at least not news to most of us technology insiders um but I do think that the thing that is news is well look as we've been saying China is in the game this is actually in fact a game on competition and it was resoundingly demonstrated that way and there is good useful work that comes out of it does it change the dynamic though I mean we've looked at obviously the Nvidia stock piece of this for example chips energy all this can be done in a much more efficient way it seemed to me tell me if I'm wrong that for the most part everybody at least in the US was in just let's just we're going go big or go home we're just going to try to keep advancing these these platforms um without necessarily spending all the time on the efficiency piece these guys seem to focus as much on the efficiency piece as anything else and does that change the dynamic well say for example you can train a model on a thousand gpus but you can make it much better on 10,000 gpus you will in a a lot of cases always spend for the 10,000 gpus or the 100,000 gpus because if your coding model is even 20% better with that and you think that there is you know billions of people who could be using and engaging that around the world that's actually worth it and that kind of cost so the fact that you're trying to do efficiency that's a good thing all of the the American companies will also get to points where they're focusing on efficiency I think there's things that we can learn from some of the stuff the Chinese are doing but I don't that doesn't mean you don't want the large model make of the open versus closed Source issue and the reason I raise it is you know you look at an apple all of a sudden people say guess what Apple has not spent nearly the kind of capex that others have and they're going to ultimately have access to something just as good you could argue they do with open AI today inside the phone but it's a different story and Amazon there are people who people are looking saying they're the winners of this because they're not investing the same amount but they're going to be able to have the same outcome well so the real question comes down to how do you integrate these Technologies into your business and franchise and open source will be useful for a number of things but just as startups tend to start with a bunch of Open Source and then add to them as they get bigger uh for things usually open- Source doesn't help you solo by the open source power your much larger franchise in business and what's more as I think these you know whether it's you know open AI anthropic Microsoft Google as they get to the large models and training the small models that will create a act in fact a much more higher performance system that I think most of the open source will get to well the Market's not buying it yet folks Nvidia looking like it's going for new lows of the day 123.0 two uh six cents away from the 122s 6 cents away from the 122s there you go 12299 yeah Market's not buying it yet I guess we I guess we have some some massive hiccups in regards to how the Nvidia thesis is playing out in terms of the Market's perception of it also this again I keep saying it but this capex reaffirmation of of spend I guess the Market's also saying hey once meta and Microsoft tell us they're actually spending even though they already told us we're spending but we need to hear it again post deep seek then uh then maybe we can go back to buying Nvidia but 12305 that's down right here giving back basically 4% of what it got yesterday it was up 8% yesterday now it's down 4% so netting about 4% over the past two days rocket lab up 1.7 grab doing well up 2% hoodie 4935 Snapchat nice 1% pop pounder down 2% Shopify little bit of a breather from yesterday uh snowflake down 2.24 United's up 1.5 and then T-Mobile again great earnings on T-Mobile 241 up 9% dude it's got to be one of its best days in a couple years for T-Mobile that's great that is great uh Jason said it would retest yeah that's true Jason did say it would retest and 123 is kind of that three trillion psychological level as well that it is uh retesting right here now below 123 122.8 um but he did say we would probably get a retest of that it would be harder to imagine this thing breaking 130 even though overnight it was there but it makes a lot more sense based on how he explained it last night as well my dad just messaged me telling me did you hear about deep seek means the normies and dumb money bought the narrative well I think in general it's catching headlines that's the thing right like and and like even my dad asked me about it or he asked me about what's happening with Nvidia then I had to explain deep seek and dude my dad last night says what is AI like he just straight up he's like but what is AI and it was just so it was kind of hard to explain it I was just like well it's like he was just like like what is it like why do we care about a what is it he's like I know it's artificial intelligence but what does that mean and I'm like well I don't know like like damn how am I an AI investor I don't know how to explain it but no I was just like well there's this like I I didn't say large language model I was like well there's this app called Chachi BT and it it takes all the world's information he's like oh it gives you all the answers I was like yeah so he's like so Google's screwed I was like no not really even though it's so funny that he thought that because that was all of our gut assumptions back when Google was 90 bucks early 2023 everyone was like well Google screwed right chat is gonna eat it l so it's funny because like that's literally what he like Oh Google's screwed why would I use Google if everything I have the answers already but then I was like no Google's gonna benefit from AI it's like gonna be part of their business he still doesn't get it but uh it is kind of hard to explain not g to lie especially because you you have to explain so many other things before you get to the value of AI like you have to explain what is a large language model what's the point of a large language model Nvidia looks like it's about to go below 122 um how do you you know why should companies care about building large like there's just so many derivative thesises you have to talk about to get to the point of AI but nonetheless a lot of people are waking up to it a lot of people are waking up to it AI is what you are but artificial with more capability yeah I think that's a good oneliner and I think see if this is why I'm rooting for Apple to solve this thing because if Apple can get like AI on your phone someone like my dad could better understand his agent you know responding to his text messages or scheduling his meetings or y y but but but like you know Apple's not there yet where is NVIDIA 12221 down 5.25% 12221 are we at 1030 we're at 10:45 a little bit of a dump right here um it's slightly less useless than me dude the Apple AI is so bad it's so bad ask open AI what AI is that's a good that's a good thing let's let's uh that's a good experiment if I had to explain what AI is to my 60-year-old dad in four sentences what would I say let's see what it comes up with let's see if this makes any sense AI is a type of technology that allows computers to learn from data and make decisions similar how humans think it powers things like voice assistance self-driving cars and even the recommendations you see on Netflix or Amazon instead of following strict rules like old school computers AI improves over time by recognizing patterns and making predictions it's not magic just advanced math and Computing that helps automate tasks solve problems and make life more convenient I guess it's the same problem people had back in 2000 when they had to explain what the internet was right like what's the internet I guess it was hard to explain well all the information is on the worldwide web and anyone can access the information at any moment it's uh yeah it's kind of vague it's a I I didn't think of FSD though I should have said FSD to my dad because he's experienced FSD before and that is AI so I think the easy explanation could have been the drive we took a week ago was because Tesla took a lot of data they trained AI I I don't want to say models because he's gonna get confused by what does he mean by models but they trained an AI on all that data aka the models and uh that allowed us to have a car that drives Itself by which is artificially intelligent I guess that's like a decent real world example around that alibaba's AI did Dethrone deep seek that headline came out last night um not bullish for NVIDIA or not bearish for NVIDIA in my opinion but uh it it it does make people step up the challenges when it comes to the United States versus China and you know who's going to win when it comes to AI dude I was not expecting Baba to come out with a model it's like they've been working on models for the past year and they've just been waiting to release it and ironically they release it the day after another Chinese company releases it it really makes you think did some of these hedge funds know this was going to be the title wave of of news coverage that was going to come out over the week uh yeah that information did come out late last night okay T-Mobile CEO let's listen to him and see what he has to say I think he said Q4 was one of their best results ever for them as a company continue in 2025 yeah you know David first of all we we just issued the highest beginning of year guidance ever in our history it's kind of interesting because we've had a story to growth history in this company and people you know they ask me once in a while like is this you know is the is the biggest growth year are they in your past 24 was the biggest growth year ever in our history and that's just because 25 hasn't happened yet and here's the reason for it hold on that's that's an epic statement 24 was the biggest year in our history for growth and that's only because 2025 hasn't happened yet I like this guy I like this guy that's a hell of a statement the consumer um for our business is firing on all cylinders but business is starting to come up and contribute way more as well and so you don't have a soft spot looking across top 100 consumer markets smaller markets in rural areas and then now across multiple segments in business and they're all contributing so we went and guided our highest uh postpaid net additions for the start of the year ever and we moved our service Revenue expectations up from prior expectations right you know in the past it has often been your benefit was the loss for some of your competitors but that doesn't seem to be the case is it simply more reflective of a stronger economy or particularly as you just said the Enterprise in facts kind of adding uh adding demand yes and some of both you know um we are growing in the business sector the business sector itself is growing so that's good but there's definitely share taking happening there and then the share taking is ongoing in the consumer space it's not accelerating we just keep taking share every quarter quarter after quarter for years but at a pretty predictable pace and so it's uh it's just a great model and the bottom line is people want a better 5G Network and they want a great deal and we have structural advantages that allow us to just continue offering both of those things now uh like great to see as always uh last time I spoke with you at San Francisco personally you said to me you know what Apple's doing well and everyone else was saying Apple's doing badly that was about a 100 points ago on page eight of your deck you say a higher average revenue per device sold that uh that net of promotions primarily driven by an increase in the high-end phone mix is it once again better than people think at Apple or is it as downbeat as all the street this is like an at test on page eight of my deck I love it yeah listen I signaled to you that we were experiencing you know strong sales of the iPhone and then you saw that in our numbers today so it's just totally consistent people are buying uh premium phones from us we you saw our upgrade rates smooth out for the first time in a long time our upgrade rates tend to be lower than our peers that's good for our financials but they smoothed out we saw it sort of pick pick back up this quarter I think overall it's a very healthy Trend okay there's an eff called new stre research candidly I'm not that familiar with him but they did propose a couple of scenarios today T-Mobile Charter hard on an thinking that you will buy that uh there's talk about you merging with Comcast talk about things that you can't talk about whatsoever and yet there I am oh we're here to break news today aren't weim go ahead listen we we laid out at our Capital markets day ambition for fiber and you know one of the things that has always made our business great is that it's a simple business we try to make it simple fiber is a simple business as well so it's a natural place for us to be Pure Play fiber you know we're never going to rule out anything here we're here to create value um but we showed a little bit of our hand in terms of at least where our bias is right well you're G I like this guy dude I've never heard of this guy before I like him I like him he's uh I don't know I just I like CEOs that can talk that can communicate that are able to uh clearly identify what they're saying especially some that can drop some uh nice moments when he says 2024 was only so good because 2025 hasn't happened yet I like that but I don't know anything about T-Mobile maybe it's a company worth looking into a lot more um you know people talk about Verizon and 18t a lot because like I think they're just they've been around for longer but T-Mobile is showing some growth that Verizon 18t have not shown in a while uh karp's gonna be on CNBC tomorrow folks so we got the update right here 11: a.m I will be live we will have Alex karp right before earnings right before earnings so for everyone who's been complaining that pter has been a little too silent uh I guess we're getting car the he doesn't usually do this right before earnings so this is actually this is literally four days before earnings uh the tone of his excitement I imagine we will see and we'll all try to pontificate on if that means that earnings are going to crush but yeah right before right he usually doesn't do it right before it's usually like two weeks before this is literally four four days no three days basically I mean if you take away the weekend it's like two days so that'll be an important one and we'll hear what uh what he has to say um all right what else do we have is NVIDIA still struggling dude we are not even halfway through the day we have so much coming up later today Nvidia got back to 123 hopefully can oh it touched so we did get below 122 Robin just went green grab nice show today up 3% on grab uh 467 smci is red and then Nvidia still down 5% on the day who bought anything today did you guys buy anything who bought anything I bought some Nvidia is there anything else we should be buying today Google's down a little bit Snapchat's doing good Snapchat's holding up we don't have to do anything there Gra AB is doing its thing uh hood is kind of flat and then Tesla as well Tesla dude I have no clue about Tesla I want to buy Tesla before earnings but then I'm just like oh my gosh it's Tesla they always get hit on earnings but then again if everyone's thinking they're gonna dump are they really gonna dump I don't know I kind of think there's other catalysts that are just going to be talked about and the Street's going to get excited um I don't know do Tesla met a Microsoft no clue absolutely zero clue what's going to happen today like it's hard to even pick where we what direction I think they would go Nas Nvidia we got some nvdl here in the chat Sal and puts on gitlab and data dog uh Boeing Mickey bought Chad bought some mvdl uh Brandon bought Hood Sofi grab I love it we got rol buying some Tesla guidance will sync Tesla 100% well if Elon continues the guide for for freaking 20% deliveries I think that's bullish because they grew nothing last year but if he takes that guide back down then yes I think that could hurt him and that wasn't an official guidance but on the earnings call Elon said we will grow 20 to 30% deliveries in 2025 I only think the way they get there is by launching the $30,000 car but then again what if everything goes exactly how you'd expect it to go they launched the $30,000 car in a couple months they guide for 30% vehicle delivery growth maybe that meets means revenues grow by like 15% that's that would be a great uh showing for Tesla and that's not even factoring any of the products on FSD but then again is that asking for too much I don't know it might be asking for a little bit too much from Tesla today Jackie bought some rock lab Felix brought some OKO um zoko says I'm working all this overtime to buy stons dude that's it's the all of us literally we take our money and we try to put as much of it as we can into the freaking markets it's just wild like most of your friends and family don't do that they're like they they hold on to their money it's in a savings account and it just stays there and us we're like how quick can we get this into Nvidia or into our brokerage account which is why when stocks fall it's it's so depressing right because it's like it's like you work your ass off to to have the money to even invest and then your Investments go against you and it's like it just hurts right but it is the the the uh cost that it takes to even be in the game in the first place dude if jpow Cuts rates today could you imagine JP's not cutting rates but if he cuts rates today there's no way it's happening probabilities have to be like 99% now that he's not cutting if he gives us a prize cut yeah it's 99.5% I'm just I'm just excited for japal trying to figure out how to dodge the Trump questions because we know the number one question is going to be Trump wants interest rates lower when are you going to do it and he's going to be like well we're data dependent and they're like yeah but what if Trump thinks the data is ready to for for prime time for interest rates to come down and Jal is just gonna have to keep denying it and try to get away from that area or from that argument if they keep asking he might get mad bro he might legit get mad he might last time he cursed I mean he might actually be like guys I don't care like he's the president I'm the chair of the FED we're in different situations stop trying to ask me to answer stuff I can't answer and I think that's how the press conference is going to go that's it worst case pal says no more Cuts this year maybe Rays watch limit down S&P into the close there's no way Pal's saying we're going to raise rates dude I mean I I mean there there is a chance I think it's unlikely especially with the new T rent index coming down for the lowest level since 2010 I mean that's that's the other thing I curious what he's gonna say about Trump but I'm also curious what he's gonna say about shelter inflation because if he can give us some doish tone on shelter inflation by the way the other reason we should expect uh pal to be doish is because gouby and and what's his name and and Waller were super doish on CNBC over the past couple weeks like to the point where they were arguing with the host about how dovish they should be because the host wanted them to be more hawkish because CNBC loves when the feds get hawkish and and they they weren't budging they were being pretty damn dubish so I don't think japal would take that much of a of a U-turn from what of his from what his his his uh fed presidents said publicly and if he does then it would just be weird because it would be an in congruent message coming coming from the FED JP's not gonna cut but we guy doish that's exactly what I think is gonna happen I think the press conference is going to be he's not goingon to cut he'll be doish he'll be a little annoyed at the Trump questions and then after that it's it it's it's over and then by the time you know it we'll have 15 minutes left and then meta Microsoft and Tesla will report that's how I think this is going to play out um Summit thank you for becoming a channel member Grant Knight thank you for becoming a channel member and Dunkle shits which is a great name thank you for becoming a channel member thank all three of you for being here and uh becoming a channel member Rob thank you for the $5 Super Chat admit if SARS was not a thing then what would be your prediction for pter on Monday again dude it comes down to growth I really have no idea what they're guide for Q4 at this point I want earnings to be over with so we can stop speculating because like it's just time to see what happens but karp doing CNBC 3 days before earnings to me is I don't know dude it's kind of bullish feels kind of bullish maybe that's uh maybe that's a naive take but I don't know do you do do you do live TV two days before you have results and then have shitty results you know I like I don't know if they were gonna have if they were going to crap the bed would he go live on TV right before and act super excited knowing they're about to crap the bed like they're not going to crap the bed we know they're not the stock might crap the bed because of the SARS thing but honestly I I don't care about that like I care about can this company become what we think it can become which is one day a trillion dollar company which means they got to get the growth together and Monday is just going to be another step in that journey to try to get there Jackie says damage control well look that I mean yeah that could be there's a be case there as well that he's going live before uh to soften the blow that that I mean look I'm not going to dismiss that that happens all the time so at this point we just have to wait and see on how this is gonna gonna play out we'll find out soon enough bro we will find out soon enough and we'll have to stop speculating once we get it on Monday um Boeing move well yeah well Boeing yeah but Boeing's different Boeing's not in the same world world as paler in terms of the momentum that it's had so yeah you're right Boeing did report early and then they were able to pump on earnings now they're down today down 2.69% so I guess it helped for a little bit but not entirely but also Boeing's a turnaround story everyone knows Boeing is gonna crap the bed for like the next couple years but streets just hoping they don't go out of business with some of these headlines they're getting smci is at 28 rocket lab is still green 29 Tesla 391 Nvidia trying to get back to 123 122.75 down 4.8% on the day where's asml we haven't even looked at asml today they're up 4% I forgot to look at asml the semis are all green except Nvidia broadcom and arm Holdings everything else is green so asml lifted up Qualcomm TSM Micron Dell Intel and AMD why is NVIDIA down 5% your guess is as good as mine I honestly don't know other than yesterday being a technical bounce therefore we're seeing a technical retracement which is normal but uh the the the the headline narrative on deep seek destroying Nvidia is still obviously affecting investors today as it's not necessarily recovering from where it was two days ago but we're not at the 116s which is good and hopefully we don't get there oh yeah we had Vlad yesterday let's listen to a little bit of Vlad Vlad was on Fox Business yesterday carp will be on CNBC tomorrow 11: a.m.
I'll be covering it but Vlad was on yesterday with some takes around uh crypto and democratizing access to investors so let's hear a little bit about what he said and uh then we'll go from there United States should not get left behind Vlad tenna the author of that oped joins me now in a fox business exclusive Vlad how do you envision crypto as the vehicle for regular retail investors who have waited and wanted to buy shares in pre-ipo companies but they haven't been able to yeah thank you uh for having me by the way always great to be here I think there's uh a big problem which is that if you're a retail investor right now and you want to invest in Ai and is very very clear that they do uh judging by the market activity yesterday and the overnight on Sunday you don't have too many options open AI is a private company over 150 billion valuation uh it's only available to select few insiders and it's not like it was in the 80s where companies could go public at small valuations the IPO process has gotten cumbersome only the biggest companies can do it and uh that limits opportunities and upside to to retail investors and so I think that we're in a bit of a strange place when highly speculative assets are free for retail to invest in but high quality productive technology startups that are generating significant Revenue are off limits uh and I I think that we now have an Administration that's crypto-friendly and Retail friendly and we see an opportunity to to fix this major problem um I I agree with you that the regular folks out there should be able to invest in private shares of privately held companies but I have to play devil's advocate here you talk about high risk for every startup that succeeds there are many that fail and therefore the reason I I would think the SEC says you know what you have to be accredited to invest in privately held companies is because accredited investors can take a hit if the company goes belly up there's a lot more risk when you're investing in private companies that are startups yeah I think that these are all good points and it makes sense um but I think right now you have companies like space sex worth hundreds of billions companies like open Ai and anthropic um that are off limits to investors and you know in the world of crypto you see some criticism from Skeptics that crypto is pretty much mcoin investing um and that's free for for customers to invest in uh that's open to them so I think these two things cannot stand and the right solution is to open up access to uh these sort of like previously accredited uh assets and I think we can do that in a way that make sure that customers know what they're putting their money into and uh self-certify that they understand the risks you know the the sort of embrace of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency over the past couple of months has been so hard fought the mcoin issue it doesn't that kind of cheapen what's going on and the this hard-fought war to to have some legitimacy with the with the crypto world because you know you think about what happened when you attended some of the inauguration events before the actual president Trump inauguration and you were at the crypto ball and there have been couple of Articles written about how there was a jaw-drop moment when it was announced at the crypto ball that Donald Trump and Melania Trump had launched meme coins and there was a quote at least in in the Washington Post where one of these guys said his name is Nick something I mean he was he was listed he wasn't embarrassed to say his name he said you know it cheapens the Embrace of the crypto industry because these memec coins don't have technical fundamental value behind them yeah I mean here's here's what I would tell you right now in the US it's basically illegal to connect crypto technology to real world assets this is one of the things I argue uh in in my opid I think the reason that Meme coins have become such a big part of the conversation is that listing companies and securities and connecting them to crypto technology in the US is not allowed um but what I tell you is the power where anyone can launch a coin and get access to a global market where there's lots of liquidity and raise capital for uh a technology project um the fact that it's so easy and that someone with a computer can set it up and do it in a relatively short amount of time uh shows you that the technology is valuable and we just need the regulatory Clarity to connect this crypto technology to real world productive assets that are currently regulated as Securities you you have a good track record on democratizing investing really quick Vlad the selloff yesterday related to the Deep seek China chatbot what what do you you think have you looked into this and and do you think this is a reason for everybody to start selling us AI stocks I think when we look at our customers the overnight session on Sunday was our second biggest overnight trading session our customers uh tend to buy the dip and uh generally tend to wait did he say it was the second largest overnight trading session ever hold on let's see that again China chatbot USA overnight session on Sunday was our second biggest overnight trading session our customers wow bullish hood baby that's a lot of volume coming in just on that Nvidia dip uh tend to buy the dip and uh generally tend to be uh very very pro- AI I mean they want to invest in AI Nvidia has been uh the highest uh if not you know the the highest name in terms of net buying activity on our platform uh for quite some time and I think that just uh shows you the power of what can happen if private markets are open the unfortunate thing is technolog is moving so fast Innovation is moving so fast that very few of the companies that are offering uh AI Solutions and really innovating are public Nvidia is among the few of course you have Tesla and others but open AI anthropic uh not to mention you know deep seek they are not they're they're private companies whose investors are limited to a very very small circle of insiders that tend to invest in all of these deals so I I think that the next Frontier in democratization of retail investing is going to be making sure that these these opportunities are open to retail investors I think what he's talking about here um is more so about tokenization so he's not really talking about you get to invest in andril before they go public uh I think he's more so talking about how can we tokenize the next generation of asset classes honestly Larry Fink has talked about this a lot in the past this idea that if we could tokenize assets on the blockchain and someone could sell their hundred million doll property in Manhattan via a blockchain and you know hundreds of millions of people could own parts of them that Manhattan real estate via a token asset because you can't literally own parts of it because you can't have shares of of of a real estate you know property because then how does it go public right it doesn't make sense for a house to go public but if you own that house and you want to democratize access to people owning equity in that house blockchain allows you to do that tokenization allows you to do that and then you get the upside of owning that asset because you have all this demand coming in of people that want to bid against prices on what's that's worth I think that's what Vlad is talking about here and I think some of the crypto infrastructure they're building in the future might be a way to get there now granted it's an ambitious idea and I don't expect that to happen overnight I don't expect you know accreditation I agree with him the accreditation laws in America are stupid the problem is a lot of startups fail and I I do think Fox Business uh had a good point right there because it's like when most when startups fail like the only way you can handle a 225,000 $50,000 loss in a startup is if you have enough money to be able to be like okay that's okay that was my fund money I lost it and I can move on but if you're an average person that doesn't have the 25,000 to lose and you end up putting that into a startup and it fails which most startups fail that that is why accredit accreditation laws exist now granted the problem with accreditation laws is they're so old school and they're so outdated that even if we have those laws they need to be updated for a more modern era but I don't think Vlad is really talking about just accreditation I think he's more so talking about crypto which has no accreditation AKA you can make a million dollars off a mem coin or $10 million off a mem coin in a in a day because you don't need to be a qualified investor to get access to it I think he's saying what if we take that same philosophy that people have been using with mem coins where it's open access no accreditation but we bring that to actual asset classes that deserve to be on a blockchain and tokenized so maybe not the Trump mem coin but Manhattan property I do think that would be pretty revolutionary if they could do that I just it's G to take time for that to play out but it it is it is showing their Ambitions for crypto are Skyhigh and they want to be a big player in this space grab right here is at 470 up 3.2% so grab having one of its best days it's had in a while uh damn I can buy a hood house on margin that'd be so cool yeah theoretically you'd be able to use a margin and buy a tokenized asset again this is far away but vlad's been talking about this for a long time even uh eight months ago he did an interview on CNBC where he was talking about that same example of like like like like tokenizing a piece of property and then allowing anyone to get access to it and you don't have to go public in some re in some Reit to be able to have a a company that that that is a shell of the property like it's just man 100 Madison Avenue boom that's available to trade and if you want to trade it you can trade it if you don't want to trade it you don't have to trade it but tokenization creates the infrastructure to do it maybe it plays out maybe it doesn't but at least they are having some more Ambitions when it comes to when it comes to blockchains that's the nft talk from three years ago yeah I mean look it they've got to be able to do it in a really interesting way they've got to be able to do it in a really in a way that's actually meaningful because I agree the nfts I think are kind of stupid and the nfts Have Always Been stupid to me now granted if you are tokenizing assets they're not just digital pictures of rocks they're like equity and something that's real so I could see a little bit of a difference there but it would definitely have to be formatted in a in a unique way all right Nvidia still Nvidia down Nvidia 122.9 a little recovery on Nvidia still below 123 pounder down 2% Snapchat's up a little bit Tesla Microsoft Amazon are red by about 2% each or about half a percent on meta Microsoft is red who owns Microsoft put in the chat does anyone own Microsoft put in the chat if you own Microsoft and while you guys are doing that let me see if I can call Steve he said he would be free this morning we'll see if he picks up and we'll get his take on the markets wow a lot of you guys own Microsoft wow a decent amount of you own Microsoft 5,000 shares of Microsoft I own Microsoft yeah Steve can't pick up um okay so a lot of guys a lot of you guys will be waiting to see what uh what these results look like later today um does opening eyes valuation go to no I don't think it goes to zero I do think the moat becomes in question I don't think it goes to zero though but if meta says they're building an even better open source model you know I definitely think people are gonna be questioning what's going on with open AI the thing about open AI though is everyone's getting bearish about it and because everyone's getting bearish I think that might be another argument for why they will have some level of momentum I mean the biggest thing here is can they get to AGI faster than everyone else and if they can I don't know how you can be super super bearish if they come up with AGI now granted it's going to be a hell of a competition to get there it's not going to be easy if everything's commoditized to be the first ones to achieve AGI um but if they do it then definitely wouldn't be bearish I still think though the models are not going to be where the market finds value and I think carp's be that tomorrow on on oh yeah that that's probably another reason he's going live on CBC because now this whole deep seek thing is kicking off he's probably gonna get up there and just talk more and more and more about how these models are not the answer uh let's get an update on the FED see what some of the suits are thinking that the fed's going to talk about and then we'll keep going from there on the FED potential moveing rates how it may play out in the market our next guest is in charge of corporate credit at Goldman Sachs advising America's biggest companies on their multi-billion dollar financings Johnny fine is here Goldman Sachs Global head of investment grade wait his name is Johnny fine hold on bro I if my last name was fine I would have some fun with that that's wild Johnny fine dude and Johnny sounds like a cartoon character Johnny fine sounds like Johnny Bravo right wasn't that a cartoon character Johnny Bravo Johnny fine de welcome good morning thanks for having me what do you expect uh no change I think that the and he's a Brit Mr fine is a Brit dude I feel like my British action is better than my Indian accent I feel like I feel like it's a little bit better he's a Brit we got a Brit Brit Mr Johnny fine is a Brit the Outlook is simply too uncertain from a government policy perspective I think if I'm chair pal today then given the data has been fairly benign as of late I'm in no hurry to do anything and given the Mosaic of potential policy outcomes that could drive inflation and growth over the next several weeks and months if I'm a betting man I'm going to say he's going to take a watching brief see how this develops and see what the impacts are right I mean I highlighted tariffs is one of the big wild cards on inflation bond market is trading tariffs as inflationary correct is that right I don't think so I I think there's many other things in this Mosaic that are going to be more important than tariffs um tariffs tend to occupy a lot of column inches uh a lot of chat in the market overall a lot of air time um but overall I'm not so sure that we should be as focused on tariffs as a risk as perhaps the market is and the reason for that is that firstly it's a one andone as opposed to a continuous bleed through into we don't know exactly right likely it's a one and done either way it's a step function as opposed to a demand excess demand driven uh level of inflation um Additionally the impacts on The foron Exchange Market generally mean that the dollar will strengthen as a function of tariffs being imposed which itself is tightening from a financial conditions perspective and ultimately demand is reduced with higher prices anyway which then questions how much of this tariff actually is passed on in terms of increased prices so all of these things together for me I think the Tariff fear is overblown if I'm the market I'd be more focused on the other elements of policymaking including impacts on the fiscal Outlook and on the labor market as well look I agree with Mr Johnny fine I think that the Mosaic of how we conceptualize the Fed and the way that they think of tariffs damn I'm so bad this is so bad I am so bad dude I can't even do a British action or an Aussie accent I am just like I'm not meant for accents bro I just have my voice and that's it can't do Indian can't do British can't do a see it just it ends up sounding American every time I try it's so bad bro it's so bad it was better than the Indian though right it was at least kind of better it was so bad dude oh my gosh I liked how he said Mosaic though he's like the Mosaic see but I can't say I can't say it like him but he can say it dude I love the British action so much like I really I've always been in love with that accent like I'm gonna marry a Brit bro I'm gonna marry a Brit I'm gonna marry a Brit just to hear that she's gonna teach me this accent I love it bro I just I there's something about that accent for some AUST Australian and British accents have always been interesting to me just how they sound are so cool like like it like they sound like they're like they sound like they're Elite there's like this elitism intrinsically inside like have you ever heard Adele talk Adele which I don't know how she sings the way she sings and she has that accent it's pretty incredible how some some of those people do that but her accent's incredible she just sounds like she's a queen when she talks bro there's this like there's this unique accent there just select the Brit filter on grinder oh my gosh maybe one day I'll learn that accent but anyway what he's saying right there the point of what he was saying is that we are too focused on tariffs and not really focused on the broader implications of when inflation is going to come down and that uh because of that uncertainty on when inflation is going to come down there's no way the fed's gonna be able to cut rates which he's correct about but it's not new news because we know the fed's not going to be able to cut rates anytime soon May is when we have a 50% chance March we have like a 20% chance today we have a 99.5% chance we're not going to get a cut so I think it's going to be a rather boring meeting outside of jpow talking about shelter and dodging some questions from Trump there's not going to be anything exciting that we'll see today dude I need a British accent I need do Canadians have an accent no Canadians do have an accent Canadians do have an ACC I heard Tanner the other day on his stream he said uh he said a and I was like oh that sounds like that that's what they say right I don't know why they say like a at the end of every sentence but that's that's the um that's like kind of a Canadian accent I guess or at least that's a catch not not a catch phrase but like a phrase that they use right it's like e right at the end of every word or something at the end of every sentence Tanner was like look at that eh I was like oh that's that's Canadian right or French I'm so bad at accents I'm so bad dude so bad all countries have an accent I mean yeah I guess so does America but America has an accent in certain regions like there's a Southern accent there is a New York accent that's for that's for sure there's definitely a Cali Tech bro accent but there's other countries that have cooler accents like in the UK um oh Boston too yeah we have Boston have Boston as well Boston also has accents all right what else what else what else do we have do we have any other crazy headlines RFK is still testifying we can hop back into that for a second we'll see if we get anything out of that but let's let's see let's see all right I think he's still in Q&A let's see what he's saying but as you know agriculture is our top economic driver in Montana we produce some of the highest quality crops the best Livestock in the country in the world our farmers and our ranchers are truly some of the most effective environmental stewards in ensuring we have a safe food supply chain in the world I share your view that protecting the integrity and safety of our food supply is utmost importance I appreciate the research happening in places like Montana State University to help farmers produce resilient healthy and safe crops as well as their agricultural Pro practices you mentioned you were a 4AGE kid growing up I think our 4AGE kids and our FFA kids are some of the best kids in America my question for you Mr Kennedy is if confirmed as I'm listening to my farmers and ranchers talk about the future will you commit to working collaboratively with Partners at us da at the relevant federal agencies as well as our Montana Farmers and ranchers before implementing any policy that might affect or impact food supply I absolutely will make that commitment I have I shared with you a personal commitment and a long career working with Farmers I want to make sure I I understand the very very narrow margins the slim margins at American farmers and ranchers are dealing with and I don't want under my watch a single farmer to have to leave this farm for economic reasons or for regulatory or bureaucratic reasons while I serve if I'm privileged to serve to be confirmed as HHS secretary even more important president Trump has a very very strong commitment to Farmers president Trump uh was is is probably historically in modern history the best farm president in our history farm income spiked for the first time in decades under his last Administration he got solid support from Farmers across the country farm country is Trump country Farmers across the country supported him during this election he has specifically instructed me and he wants Farmers involved in every policy and that he wants me to work with Brooke Rollins at USDA to make sure that we preserve American farmers that all of our policies support them Mr Kenny thank you and if confirmed I look forward to having you and Brook Rollins out to Montana spend some time with you have my commitment to come there anytime particularly during ski season or onion season uh deal all right confirmation looks like it continues to uh to keep going uh J says did you see the Intel former CEO bought the Nvidia dip really Pat Ginger he bought Nvidia how do how do you how do you see that how do you know that oh wow Elon Musk nominated for Noble Peace Prize for protection of free speech wow Elon getting a Noble Peace Prize huh what a headline what a headline if that happen happens uh I'm trying to find the pat ginger in video news if I can see that oh he did yeah he bought it he posted on LinkedIn he bought the dip Intel CEO is that bullish or bearish that the Intel CEO bought the dip well we'll read through his thoughts in a second but he bought the dip um Elon mus nominated for Noble Peace Prize for protection of free speech all right so let's do a live vote right here in the chat let's see what you guys think Does Elon deserve a Noble Peace Prize for free speech I guess they're assuming buying Twitter right that that's what they mean by getting like that's what they mean by preserving or protecting free speech I guess I would imagine buying Twitter is like the the thing he did that got the committee to nominate him dude Elon uh elon's never won a Nobel Prize on anything to my understanding not like a Nobel physics Prize or a Nobel Math Prize so this is a big one Nobel Peace Prize for protection of free speech wow 5050 in the chat huh literally 5050 50% say no 50% say yes am I saying Noble wrong I'm saying it is a no Bell obviously because I ring a cow bell I have to no probably it's no so you guys are right I'm saying it like Bell but still I'm not trolling you guys bro I don't know how to say words like I just it is what it is I don't know how to say words this is so bad bro okay anyway so that that's what we got from Elon uh 5050 on on on the Peace Prize uh I want to get more details on that we'll see if Elon comments on that soon I wonder if Elon is going to accept that nomination or not but then we also got Pat Ginger who bought the dip so here's what he wrote yesterday wait you guys saying no it is Nobel you're saying it is Noble so I wasn't saying it is Nobel oh I see what you guys are saying I see what you guys are saying I'm saying it is Noble but it is Nobel okay gotcha okay so it's no Bell even though I'm saying is see I I put the L in the e in the opposite direction of course why not why not see I'm allergic to saying no Bell because uh I ring the bell every day so I don't know what it means to have no Bell we're not going back to the days where we had no Bell bro that was not those were not fun days all right here's what Ginger said the response to deep seek has been fascinating to watch and I would suggest the response misses three important lessons we have learned in the F first five in the last five Decades of computing first Computing obeys the gas law this means it fills the available spaces defined by available resources as we saw in the PC virtualization mobile and numerous others uh making compute resources broadly available and at radically lower price points will drive an explosive expansion not contraction of the market basically javon's Paradox right there AI will be in everything going forward and today it is orders of magnitude too expensive to realize that potential I recall my first internet browser experience wow and now it's every minute or second of every day if you're a teenager the market reaction is wrong lowering the cost of AI will expand the market today I'm an Nvidia and AI stock buyer and happy to benefit from lower prices wow wow so Ginger is thinking that this dip is stupid second engineering is about constraints it is clear that the deepsea team had numerous constraints and found creative ways to deliver a world-class solution in every respect at 10 to 50x lower costs export laws limited the available resources so Chinese Engineers needed to get creative and they did they didn't need1 billion doll of hardware on the latest chips and multi-billion dollars of train of a training budget uh one time years ago I was interviewing the famed maybe the greatest computer scientist of our time Donald n he described in detail how he did his best work when the resources were most severely limited and schedules most demanding I consider that Insight one of the most important of my engineering and management career third open wins it has been disappointing to watch the foundational model research become more and more closed over the last few years in this I'm more aligned with Elon than Sam Alman we really want nay need a AI research to increase its openness we need to know what the training data sets are study the algorithms and introspect on correctness ethics and implications fighting the battles of legal Spectrum engineering and adoption open is never easy and consistently challenged by the market forces open wins every time it is given a proper shot AI is much too important for our future to allow a closed ecosystem to ever emerge as the o one and only in this space this is pretty incredible dude he is pretty damn bullish on this deep seek is an incredible piece of engineering that will usher in the greatest adoption of AI it will help reset the industry in its view of open Innovation it took a highly constrained team from China to remind us all of these fundamental lessons of computing history that's not a reason to be scared of Nvidia I mean I mean look pad Ginger whe whe whether you want to say he was a good Intel CEO or not Intel CEO the guy's a smart guy I mean the guy has been at the Forefront of computing for a very long time even if intel was not able to catch up when it comes to Innovation and I think I think it makes sense he's basically quoting javon's Paradox and kind of laying it out in plain terms that we are going to have more compute even if we have more Innovation when it comes to training on that compute but that's not going to lower demand but the market doesn't believe it the market does not believe it yet 5347 on the Nobel Peace Prize vote in the chat who was the last who were the last Nobel Peace Prize winners let's let's take a look at that tell me the last 20 years of noble or Nobel Peace Prize winners Tesla's below 389 okay Tesla's getting hit dude I can't talk this I don't know what to tell you guys there's certain words I can't say it is what it is I can't do anything about it but no Bell which I'm probably gonna say wrong later you know my accent my accent is mispronunciation that's the emit accent it's not British or Canadian or Indian it's just mispronunciation okay so no Bell Peace Prize laurates from 2005 to 2004 um Barack Obama was the last guy from the United States to win it in 2009 is this correct the someone from the United States hasn't won it since 2009 is Obama the last guy to win it from from the United States I don't know any of these other people to be honest uh I don't really cover the Peace Prize as deeply I remember when I I was in sixth grade when Obama won it so I do remember that I remember that was big news when Obama won it wow it's been a while oh Trump was nominated right Trump was nominated for it was Trump nominated for this yes Trump was nominated by multiple times for the nobble Peace Prize in 2020 he was nominated by Norwegian parliamentarian for his role in brokering the Abra records uh in 2024 in January he was nominated again and then in November 2024 he got nominated again that was recently on trying to stop Russia's aggression against Ukraine however he has not been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize so Trump got nominated three times yeah Elon is South African so technically it would be given to a South African I I don't know how the Noble Peace Prize committee would label it but might not be literally to a United States citizen do we think elon's going to win it do we think they'll let Elon win it I don't know bro not that many people love Elon that would be a hell of a middle finger to the mainstream media because that's that that's a prize that everyone pays attention to they cover if Elon wins that dude most of the mainstream media thinks that Elon has is like inciting hate speech on Twitter and he's anti-trans anti everything like for him to win the Peace Prize would be I don't even I mean that that's an msnb MSNBC segment I would want to see that day I would want to see how they cover that because then you would have to they if they want to cover him badly on winning the Peace Prize they would have to either undermine the Integrity of the committee that comes up with that Prize or they would have to acknowledge that Elon has created more Peace by protecting free speech I guess we're going to find out how that plays out um okay where is NVIDIA where is NVIDIA are we still stuck below 123 yeah 122.8 at least it's not dipping below 122 so far it's been holding on okay grab up 3% Tesla's up down 2% Tesla definitely getting a little bit of a dip right here going into earnings smci finally going green it's been red for the past three days pter as well still down 2% and then Shopify down 1% JT is still up 8% right now going back to what the Intel CEO said dude I like I think that's why you buy the Nvidia dip like if you've been waiting for NVIDIA what what he said right there is the idea that we're gonna have more compute I think Jensen's gonna harp on this whole javon's Paradox thing as well and say the world is going to more and more compute now if Jensen lowers demand expectations for 2025 that would not be the best and that would reaffirm the market suspicions on Nvidia potentially being too cyclical but I I don't I don't I don't know like for him to do that meta would have to lower their expectations microsof like everyone would have to say deep seek changed the trajectory of capex demand and uh that would be the only thing that gets Jensen to to reduce his Outlook which I guess we'll find out in the next coming weeks if that ends up happening uh let's get an update from Trump's new buyout for f employees and get some updates on that we continue to get a stream of headlines out of Washington DC overnight including some of the confusion as well around that Federal funding freeze am and jabis keeping track of it all what do we got am good morning David the White House says they expect five to 10% of the federal Workforce to accept their offer for what they're calling a deferred resignation they say that could save the taxpayers as much as a hundred billion dollar annually over for the long term the deal on the table is if you resign by next week as a federal employee you can collect full pay and benefits and retain your pension until September 30th even though you will do no work the new Department of government efficiency posted this morning that employees quote can take the vacation you always wanted or just watch movies and chill while receiving your full government pay and benefits that comes as the White House is beginning to fill in the details of an Abrupt Federal payment freeze that went into effect yesterday officials here now say this is not a blanket stop work order instead it's an effort to identify and eliminate programs that are not politically correct in the magga era such as diversity efforts or efforts around transgender issues now all of that coming as press secretary Caroline levit says the deadline of this Saturday still holds for potential new tariffs on China Canada and Mexico so we'll be watching for the details today on how that might roll out David uh and just one other detail here that those Medicaid portals uh payment portals that shut down yesterday the White House said they were aware of that and that those portals were now going to be up and running so they seem to have gotten some of the Kinks out of that Federal funding freeze overnight guys back over to you either you show up to work or you get bought out I mean whether you like some of these policies or not Trump is definitely trying to implement different parts of his agenda and and now we're going to see if those can go through I don't think the courts are going to challenge this the courts are already challenging the ending the birthright citizenship they're challenging some other executive orders as well but I don't know if they're going to be able to challenge this one because this is you know Elon compared to yesterday to that that email he sent to Tesla employees in 2020 or 2018 it was the fork in the road email a lot of the OG Tesla investors know what I'm talking about and the warning of the email they sent out last night to federal employees was very similar to the warning it almost like Elon wrote the email basically saying hey we're either going to go bankrupt or you guys have to be exceptional and if not you're going to get fired uh that was kind of the tone of the email they sent out to federal workers yesterday so um look whether it works or not it is it is an it is an attempt at efficiency it is an attempt of trying to see if they can get it to be a bit better I don't know I like my my thing is like whether this works or not they're trying they are trying and we have $36 trillion in debt we either cut some of the spending or we grow we've got to be able to get the growth but growth is going to be hopefully 3% of GDP I mean we're not India we're not growing at seven or eight% GDP so or we're not even China That Grew at 5 per.
so if we if we have 3% GDP growth we got to cut some costs to be able to balance the budget and I guess you have to have some measures that hopefully can can go into place he did the same to X employees as well yeah he did the same to X employees that's correct he did that as well uh linky link thank you for becoming a channel member appreciate you watching the show and thank you for becoming a Channel member uh here today um who does the birthright thing affect so I believe it affects people like if you illegally came to the country and then you had a child my understanding is correct me if I'm wrong that child is a natural born American citizen even if their parents illegally came here even if their parents aren in citizens those kids are citizens that's what I think Trump is trying to stop because then that gives him a easier way to deport people that were born here naturally even if they they didn't come here naturally or their parents didn't come here naturally um but then again the courts are saying wait a second That Could set a really bad precedent if we take it to its logical extreme and so uh right now that is not the law of the land yet that is being challenged pretty heavily in a lot of district courts in the United States I think even there's a there's a there's a district court in New Jersey that's that's attacking I think there's a district court in Texas as well that's appealing that so we're going to have to see in the next few weeks if that gets through it's yeah I would yeah I could see that going to the Supreme Court I could see that going to the Supreme Court that's a that's a heavy one uh Atlanta fed lowers its final Q4 US GDP estimate D drastically down from 3.2 to 2.3 really I was just talking about GDP growth at 3% I oh boy let me just confirm that headline that is a hell of a headline if the Atlanta fed went that route yeah wow 2.3 versus 3.2 huh 2.3 versus 3.2 they did a quick little reversal um okay so they're estimating Q for growth to be lower well this is why big Tech out a crush earnings because if we're going to have less than 2.5% growth which granted is not the worst thing in the world it was just really nice to be above 3% I think we grew at 2.6 to 2.9% over the past couple of quarters so it's not like 2.3 is horrible especially if we beat that and we come in at 2.5 but three was really exciting does that mean a rate cut is coming well see this is this this gets into the macro conundrum that is back inflation right if growth slows down but inflation doesn't the fed's not going to cut rates um because inflation's not coming down like if growth slows down and inflation comes down then you can cut rates even if the economy gets into a recession and then the cutting of the rates hopefully helps us get out of the recession but if growth slows down and inflation doesn't slow down you can't cut rates because then inflation's going to spiral and then you're screwed and so I think Pal's biggest fear for the past couple years has been trying to make sure that we don't get into that situation he even said that famous quote right I don't see the Stag or the flation but um I think that's something that you know the fed's going to care about a lot but then again again 2.3% is not horrible growth now it's lower from the expectations at 3.2 I don't know if the Market's reacting that deeply to that S&P is yeah relatively unchanged Market's not really being affected on that and again it's the Atlanta fed that's their projections that's not the actual numbers um but we've been doing 2.5 for the the past couple quarters so it' be nice to have that what was let me confirm what was GDP growth last quarter in the US I think it was like above 2.5 no it was three it was exactly three yeah 3% 3% actually no okay so it was 3% in the second quarter 2.8% in the third quarter so 3% in Q2 2.8% in Q3 and hopefully it's not below 2.5 going into Q4 uh Amit what would you consider a full position on grab uh it really depends on your portfolio right really depends on your position sizing uh my position is up there now it's like uh with the little bit of the Run we had today it's like 80k so I'm in this thing heavy and um I don't know I believe in it I think $10 in two years is not crazy and so I'm in this one um and again you know like some people might say well why would you go so heavy into this versus like Google or Amazon or whatever Google and Amazon are very safe bets I I expect those to do well I don't expect those to give me a dramatic return and so this is one of those things that could take the portfolio to the next level if I'm right in two years uh and I again dude I just I don't want to go through the whole thesis again but I think this is kind of obvious I think net income is going to be sustainable 2025 free cash flow just went positive adjusted EO went positive they're buying back their shares yada yada they're expanding I mean there's this to me is a 2021 company that the market didn't care about for three years because of covid that is now breaking out so yeah it's a big position for me I'm in options on this thing that could potentially six to sevenx if this thing does well so that could uh set up the portfolio well going into 2027 but um I don't know it is still speculative though so it's like it's not as safe as Amazon so if you want to be less on the riskier side you know you you wouldn't put as much as you put into this versus Amazon it's just for me I have a lot of conviction and obviously Amazon's safer but I think I'm going to be right about this one and who knows maybe I'm wrong but that's the fun of investing that's the fun either you're right or you're wrong admit does your uncle use grab yes he does the big thing I get from the people that are in Singapore that I've talked to is that their only bare case is that there is competition for them and that's why the uh the the incentives that grab offers to get people onto the app cuts into their margins pretty pretty heavily I agree that is a bare case that is not a thesis breaker and it is a bare case in terms of margins going down and or at least staying down for a couple quarters it is not a oh my goodness this is not an obvious Monopoly because it's becoming in my opinion an obvious mon Monopoly in Southeast Asia and then I've done a lot of research on southeast Asia and I think it's like it's one of the best sectors outside of India to to invest in in terms of real growth also if we look at one of their competitors SE C limited they're up 14% year to date they've had a phenomenal year already grab I think just the sentiment has been hit on this company which is why it hasn't have the same type of momentum uh but but that's when you buy it right you don't you don't you don't buy the thing when it's up 300% you buy it when it's down 80% from IPO and you see that there's a chance that these guys begin to seriously recover that's what I did on paler what I did on Hood a lot of you guys did that on Rocket lab and Sofi you know that's one of the asymmetric bets we're looking for yeah my uncle here in the chat I use it today and everyday food travel and digital bank and that's the thing I really like about about them dude their digital banking stuff I think is growing now there's a lot of competition for fex in Southeast Asia but their loan growth is 81% their deposit growth is 50% not year-over year quarter over quarter I mean if those numbers I mean they opened up a bank in Indonesia in in in October or in July by October they had 2 million accounts like that type of growth I think is going to get them to be adjust EIT a positive uh on Financial Services because right now the whole business is adjusted EIT a positive but not Financial Services I think it'll take two quarters for them to get positive on that once that positive you're gonna guarantee net income stabilization for 2025 and that's basically what evercore said on grab as well let's just read that and then we'll we'll end the grab discussion there but um I agree with him to a to a large extent uh and a couple of my buddies that are in this one pretty much you know our analysis lines up with him so he says the chart shows that grab has recently caught a bid we believe this bid is somewhat belated but we also view it as well warranted and we see material upside from here 50% upside to our price Target over the last few quarters grab as it several major profitability inflection points five consecutive quarters of positive eida three consecutive quarters of free cash flow and we believe sustainable net income begins in 2025 further user growth remains robust Q3 ended with 42 million monthly active users up 16% year-over-year people tell me there's competition I get it but if grabs growing users at that rate at a at a total Tam of 700 million users in Southeast Asia it seems to me like they have a monopoly even if they have to spend some money to get people to use the product which is not a a bad thing at the end of the day we also see a solid setup here for accelerating Revenue growth and materially expanding eida margins in 2025 that's also my thesis is particularly rooted in their EA margins driven by both the financial services and delivery segments accelerating Revenue growth and expanding margins usually Drive share price share price outperformance in our book yes it's time to grab some shares so that is my thesis as well there you go the link to that yeah it's right here the link to that you can read I've been trying to get the report bro me and my boy my boy works at a my boy Sebastian he works at freaking uh he works at a private Equity Bank in Los Angeles and he has tons of these reports and he's been hitting up all of his context and he can't find it and I'm I'm trying to find it too none of my context I'm like they're guarding this report for most part I'm trying to get like the full valuation but I've not been able to to get it yet uh Doug just sent me a clip of Ray doio speaking about grab did he actually mention grab let's see let's see countries and places and things um most importantly is price I think a lot of investors make the mistake of thinking I want to buy good things you know that's a great company but a great company that gets expensive is much worse than a bad company that's really cheap totally so you have to look at pricing this is all part of the look at different countries and places and things okay so I don't think that was about grab but that was a broader argument about what Rayo means when it comes to investing in companies for the long term yeah look I mean there is an argument right there right and it it depends on how you conceptualize the price of what you're getting into or the company you're getting into versus the risk like obviously Amazon Nvidia much less riskier than grab but again then you you know you look at my profile 27 years old like I'm more way more risk on I way more be 100K in grab than 100K in Amazon that sounds crazy to some people but you know if you really have your conviction then you if I lose 100K it would suck but I'll be okay you know in life I would hope but if 100K turns into 700k you know it's like there's a different level of risk reward there and then it just comes down to do you do you know the company do you really think you know the company company and I can't tell you how much I've been researching this company here's another clip right here about their CFO another thing I love about grab dude I freaking love their management I have researched their Management in depth I've listened to previous interviews I've listened to the earnings call like five times at this point I like you know you can't trust a lot of foreign companies these guys not only can I trust them I actually believe in their bullishness for the future and it seems like they actually understand that the stock is not reflecting the growth but eventually the is coming and then the stock will reflect it as well uh hold on can you guys hear this no you guys cannot hear this you guys can't hear that right that's muted yeah that's the video that's the video let me just pull it up on on YouTube instead put it up there the option position is 7.5 $10 debit spreads I said I said it a while ago but it's a call debit spread in January 202 7 7.5 10 bucks that's I bought the 7.5 I sold the $10 spread um which is going for like 35 cents right now my average on that is 34 cents so it's green today it could be red tomorrow but um that's the spread position and the max value of the spread is 250 it's trading for 35 cents so it's a 7x if grab gets to $10 in two years which I don't know if that's super ambitious or that's super like obvious to me I I'm I'm leaning on the side of this is obvious this thing is not going to be stuck given the growth rates that we're seeing unless there's a thesis breaker which could happen but if there's no thesis breaker that I'm seeing these guys are getting a 10 bucks in two years and because of the options that's a sevenx from there but again you got to have conviction dude you got to have conviction if if you get into a play like that you got to believe in it and you got to be able to buy when it's you know at some of the lowest levels has been at over the past five months all right here's the CFO and let's see what he has to say about southeast Asia and what you're seeing is a couple of things here one is our banks business which is more nent we now over we have over a billion dollars of deposits in both banks that we have in Singapore as well as in Malaysia that's triple actually you look at a yearby year basis but at the same time also couple with our non-bank business what you're seeing is our loan book also growing that's up 80% on a year-by-year basis we actually dispersed close to about $500 million last quarter so on an annualized basis we're dispersing about two over2 billion dollar now in terms of loans to our Merchants customers as well as to our drivers through our ecosystem effectively so you're seeing good traction across our business today is still very early I would say also what we are committed is to make sure that our banks would break even by second half 2026 our non-bank business continues to be strong in profitability and we're going to continue to make sure that we have product adoption and also serving our customer base and driving scale and also efficiency in our financial services business and Peter uh you know one one one concern actually in the region of Southeast Asia where grab makes its uh operates mostly is the strength of consumer confidence and there are a handful of countries that have actually raised concerns that consumer confidence is a bit shaky especially given that gr Global macro that we're seeing because grab is in so many of these countries and actually very much in touch with a lot of these consumers what is your take on consumer confidence and where the temperature is right now across the various markets of sou St that you're opting in sure JP we are seeing very strong demand actually across the 700 cities and the eight countries that operating in Southeast Asia if you look at our growth on our Mobility business was up 24% on a year-over-year basis the number of transactions overall on our on demand platform was up 22% on a year-over-year basis and as we look at the month of October alone we're seeing good momentum in our business also overall so we're not seeing any slowdown when it comes to the region itself but tourist continues to increase also the traffic of Tourism coming inbound to Southeast Asia continues to be strong which were a big beneficiary of that but at the same time also from a longer term if you look at a third party report that was put out last week also they seeing good momentum of growth for the next five years across southeast Asia in the digital economy they cited double digit Kar growth and we believe that actually that that will come into fruition because southeast Asia is still a very underpenetrated market for GR so they're bullish on the industry and I am bullish as well yes Grabel 11 earnings they're an America they're an American company that's headquartered in Singapore when you're buying shares you're not buying adrs you're not buying American what is it depository something you're not buying a shell of a share you're buying a real share so uh from my understanding and some of the people I talked to these guys have the cleanest books in Asia they are not you know there's a lot of Asian companies that cook their books these guys you're not gonna have to worry about that uh it's just a question of growth and I think the growth is going to be there and you know you buy it when the growth is is not there hoping the growth will be there and hopefully you benefit that's that's the whole point of as oh the other reason I think it's asymmetric dude is I need a double to get a 7x on the stock so or on the options so I'm like okay I'm giving myself two years for a double on a stock that has been consolidating below $5 for three years they just became profitable they have two years to expand all that profitability they're buying back their stock and they're in a very strong region for growth in terms of digital infrastructure banking deliveries ride hailing Etc which is southeast Asia and FSD is not a threat to Southeast Asia because if anyone's been to Southeast Asia there's no FSD happening anytime soon there maybe in like 10 years but it is not happening in those locations that's just it's just not a thing so I don't know that's like I think the thesis is pretty obvious but I think I think earnings will give us a good understanding of what it looks like uh I bought options not I mean I have a little bit of stock but mainly bought options this is this is more asymmetric on the on the options instead Okay let's listen to Doo because uh we we we saw a little bit of him but he has this clip about the US debt crisis so we'll end the show listening to that clip and where he thinks US debt is going longterm as well is invid below 122 oh boy freaking Nvidia 121.9 this thing cannot catch a break I think the Market's waiting for meta and Microsoft at this point that's rough one down 5.4% basically giving back a like almost 80% of what it got yesterday Nvidia 121 here right now here's what it is let me let me pull up this chart for you real quick Ray so I just want to highlight the uh CBO projection right so this is the US government's debt as a percent of the US government's Revenue which you you indicate in your book is more important than debt to GDP you've got to look at the actual Revenue being generated by the government and how much debt they have and the CBO highlights this expansion to 700% meaning the government is going to have a debt level that's seven times the income it's making every year over the next uh I believe this is a 10 year um chart and you propose a bunch of actions that can keep it flat over the next 10 years which is the basis of the book is there's a series of recommendations in the book I just want to kind of voice over again you highlight that there are four actions one is increase taxes so obviously citizens are going to lose assets and lose income uh so there's a loss to the citizens when when this happens uh cutting spending or austerity and there's obviously a loss of services by the government provided to the citizens so the citizens are going to lose Services they're going to lose benefits a central bank buying the debt which will typically increase inflation because more money will come to the markets and everything costs more so that's another form of Taxation where the value of your dollar the value of your assets goes down and then this kind of restructuring of the debt where again the currency gets devalued and everyone loses things and so I I just wanted to kind of walk through that and maybe you could frame this up for us a little bit sure like that chart if you go back to that chart think about that chart as being you know your your plaque so to speak in in the arteries and The Debt Service so you could calculate all those numbers and you you know what the picture looks like um and that is a stability and so number one is I call it my 3% solution here the solution is you must cut the deficit which is the equivalent of bonds selling down to 3% of GDP and it's 7 and a half% expected now different people have different views as to how to cut it I forget it I don't really care just you have to have a unified agreement everybody in Congress and the president and so on should pledge to do that and then the question is how to do it but they shouldn't they should know that number that's about 900 billion a year yeah roughly and that means cutting it as you point out by cutting the deficit by more than half from where it sits yeah well it's yes because it with the continuing the uh the tax cuts strum tax guts uh that's that'll be 7 and a half% and you want to get it down to three and and it sounds Draconian but we did that kind of uh change from 1991 till 1997 so the point is doio thinks we got to do a lot of to resolve this debt doge is maybe one good way to begin that process but uh he is a bit more skeptical on the ability it was a really good interview that he did with the olden podcast to try to see if dead can come down in any meaningful way um and I guess we're going to see over the next couple years can we get debt down in a way that would not be the worst thing for our kids kids kids over the next Century essentially um okay I think that's it guys we'll be back at 2:20 for a very very very long stream uh we will have JP palal at 2:30 so 2:20 I'll be live we'll get the decision at two o'clock um and then 3 two two 2:30 he'll be talking so we'll analyze the decision in those 10 minutes which will be a pause most likely then 2:30 to 3:30 we get the japal conference and then after that 30 minutes at 3:30 we basically start our earnings coverage I'll have a couple people join me on the show as well and from 3:30 till basically 7:30 so call it four hours Tesla Microsoft and meta will report it's gonna be wild bro it's going to legit be wild is there anyone else besides Tesla Microsoft meow we also have Waste Management IBM service now lamb research these are still big companies as well so going to be a lot of results to dive into and hopefully um hopefully the big three crush it because we need big Tech to keep doing what they're doing 2:30 2:30 is when he talks 2 pm the decision comes out I'll be live at 2:20 so I'll be live uh 10 minutes before he talks and um and then we'll go live is there outro music now oh my gosh maybe maybe one day we come with Alro music wouldn't be too bad dude Alro music would actually be fun maybe maybe we do that maybe eventually we do that uh word of the day is honorous honorous burdensome oppressive or Troublesome causing hardship the tennis player found the contract too honorous so she refused to sign it the hike became more honorous as the trail became muddier in the rain well uh this capex guidance hopefully does not become honorous for Invidia and cause hardship which I don't think it will bro I will be very surprised if zux or Nadella takes back their statements because of deep seek I I mean I I will be I'll be perplexed I will be very surprised I don't think that's happening but there's a chance and if that does happen Look Out Below for NVIDIA if that doesn't happen hopefully Nvidia stabilizes so I think we'll be okay um all right that's it for me thank you everybody we'll be live for the biggest day of 2025 in the stock market so far in about two hours bye everyone have a good one I'll see you guys in just a little bit bye everybody
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