저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 UAE Stargate 발표로 AI 인프라 독점적 지위가 강화되고 있어 매우 강세로 봄. 채권금리 우려보다 AI 성장이 더 중요하다고 주장. 빌 애크먼의 아마존 매수는 빅테크 편입으로 S&P 초과수익을 노린 것으로 해석. 트럼프 감세법안은 상원 통과 여부 및 적자 확대 우려가 있으나 대체로 반영됐다고 봄. 비트코인은 기관 수요 확대로 추가 상승 여지, 마이크로스트래티지는 희석 때문에 BTC 상승을 못 따라간다고 설명. 양자컴퓨팅 종목은 추격매수 비추천. 원자력 행정명령으로 오클로·SMR 급등.
다듬은 글
. This is the last daily recap of the week. It is Thursday. I'm headed to Boston tomorrow. Very excited for that. If you are showing up to the meetup, I will put the link in the description again if you want to sign up. And uh very excited to see everyone in Boston. It has been a long time since I've been there.
Uh I have been there many times though, so I'm excited to go there and uh yeah, excited to see everybody in Boston. Now, today we've got a bunch of stuff to talk about. Uh markets relatively flat, some stocks up, some stocks down. We do have some craziness in terms of certain stocks going up after hours a lot because Trump's signing some executive orders in the energy space.
We'll talk about that. But the S&P 500 was relatively flat. It was green towards the end of the day and then the last two minutes I think Alos kind of took over and we kind of ended red even though it was like 0.01% down. Overall relatively strong day. Jensen Hang Sam Alman teaming up for a UAE version of Stargate.
That's big news for Nvidia. We'll talk about the implications of that. Bitcoin alltime highs 112,000. It kind of feels normal that Bitcoin's at 112, but we're going to talk about Bitcoin and some different updates we have in the overall crypto sector. Uh, Bill Aman bought a new stock. It's a MAG 7 name.
Didn't think he was going to buy this one, but he announced today that he bought this stock. So, we'll talk about that. Lot to talk about, lot to get into. Thank you everybody for listening to Daily Recap every day. Thank you for being here today. Let's get into it. Okay, so let's start off with Jensen and Sam Alman.
Uh this was news we got last week but it was rumored news. It wasn't official and now it is official which is why I'm so excited to be talking about this even more in depth because um it's happening. It really really is happening. What is happening? The next generation of AI data centers are being built and it is being built in the UAE.
So Nvidia and OpenAI OpenAI the world's leading AI company with Nvidia that is building the infrastructure for that AI announced today operation UAE Stargate. Now, Stargate already exists in the United States. It's a $500 billion operation between a lot of different players to invest and build more data centers.
Uh, in the UAE, last week they kind of talked about it. There were rumors. Today, they confirmed it. A 5 gawatt UAE US AI campus in Abu Dhabi. 5 gawatt is insanity, but that's what they're going for. 200 megawatt AI cluster expected to go live in 2026. And the most important thing about this is it's not just OpenAI.
It's not just Nvidia. Oracle is participating, SoftBank is participating, and Cisco is participating. Now, why Cisco? Well, the OpenAI chief product officer last week joined the board of directors of Cisco. So, it makes sense that they are starting to have more collaborations. I cannot explain how bullish this is for Nvidia.
I mean, I it is it is starting to become more evident than not that Nvidia is going to become the deacto AI infrastructure company. I mean it already is but the expansion of their operations to me is getting very exciting. Now why is this really bullish for them? Chat GBT is already the leading LM. They want to distribute chat GBT across the entire world.
The CFO did an interview today uh and she basically said hey last number we gave you guys was 500 million weekly active users. She didn't give us a new number but based on all indications that I've looked at it's closer to 800 million monthly active. So we're approaching a billion users. And the thing about chat GBT is you have more queries, you need more energy.
You need more data center. You need more reasoning models. You need more advancements in the actual infrastructure to produce those reasoning models. You need more GPUs. The entire narrative around Nvidia is that they're cyclical. And everything I see every day, and I'm open to that narrative. It's just that narrative seems to be rejected every day.
And on Wednesday, next week, we're going to really see what Jensen puts up in terms of the Cuban earnings. Uh it is becoming pretty evident that Nvidia is going to win. So the market might care about bond yields. We talked about that yesterday. The 20-year bond auction. The bond market calmed down today.
10 year came down, 20-year came down. Japan has some issues. Japan is not coming down, but at least the United States is. Um, but it's hard to care more about bond yields, even if they create an intraday sell off in the S&P 500, which is why we talked about it yesterday, versus AI. In the age of AI that we are in, I think it's pretty evident that bond yields might matter.
And that doesn't mean we can ignore them because they could cause a credit crisis. But people want to invest in growth. People want to invest in technology and AI, Nvidia, OpenAI. It looks like this is only getting bigger and bigger. All right, next up, Bill Aman. He bought a stock today. He bought a new stock.
uh did not expect him to buy the stock, but Mr. Billy Aman bought a stock today. He already owns Google uh as part of Max 7. He bought Uber early in the year. Today, he bought Amazon. Didn't expect it, but he bought Amazon. So, they didn't disclose the amount or how many shares, but uh executives at Persing Square, which is the uh investment fund that he runs, told investors today that they believe CEO Andy Jasse is doing an incredible job and they don't feel tariffs will have a major impact on the business.
They sold Canadian Pacific, which is a railroad company in Canada, uh to buy Amazon. So, what do we make of this? Uh I I mean, we've looked at Amazon numbers before in the past. Uh Walmart's trading at a 42p. Amazon's at 33. Amazon's operating margins are 12.8%. Uh Walmart is at like 2.5%. Like, it's it's actually insane uh how much Amazon is growing.
They've grown their operating margins, their operating income margins for the past five quarters sequentially. Walmart even if they grew it for the past five quarters 2.5% is just like it's it's not a lot of money. So the question then becomes why Amazon? So the question then becomes why is Bill Aman really buying Amazon right?
What is the sort of MOI that he's going for? And obviously we know the AWS business is great. The AI business is strong. Capex is good in terms of how much they're investing into the business. They are working on their own chips. Uh ecom still majority of the world is still in physical commerce that's going to go to ecom.
Majority of the world is also on on uh on prem and not in the cloud. So that's a big opportunity for them. I think Aman's going for Amazon because he realizes there is no way he outperforms the S&P over the next decade unless he has big tech. Like that's the actual reason I think he's buying Amazon.
If if Warren Buffett did not have Apple for the past 10 years, he would not have outperformed the S&P 500. If you take away Apple, his returns, I think it's about 2% lower than what the S&P 500 returned, which is good, right? But with Apple, he demolishes the S&P 500. So from that perspective, I think Aman, if he's trying to become a little bit of a baby Buffett and we know what Aman's doing with Howard Hughes and trying to get all these insurance premiums to be able to reinvest that capital, I think realistically Aman saying, "Okay, I've got Google.
That'll be a good bet for the next couple years, especially given its undervaluation right now." He got into Google at like 80, 90 bucks. Uh what is my next big tech investment that can actually outperform over the next decade? And Tesla's too risky for a fund like his. Apple's not growing. Meta I think is cool, but maybe he doesn't want to allocate all of his capital to like advertising because that's that's what Meta is.
Uh Microsoft, I don't want to say Microsoft's expensive. I I but I also don't want to say Microsoft's cheap. So it's like it's like Microsoft's awesome, but it it's Microsoft and he already has Google. So he has the AI component to it. Amazon gives him commerce, gives him cloud, and gives him future initiatives in AI that we probably haven't even thought of just because of Amazon scale.
So I think from that perspective, Bill Aman's like, "Okay, if I need to outperform the S&P 500, I need to have more technology." Two of the seven Mac sevens that are probably the most, you could say, undervalued if you believe in their growth prospects, but also some of the most promising and different initiatives they're starting.
Tesla's obviously very promising, but Tesla's just an expensive stock given it's multiple. That is why I think he's allocating to Amazon. I think it really is coming down to, hey, uh, I need to outperform. A lot of stocks are in the market, but if I don't want to take on a massive amount of risk to outperform, the only way to take on a decent amount of risk without, you know, buying a bank is buying big tech.
And ultimately, that's why I think he got the idea for Amazon. Okay, next topic is the Trump tax. So, the Trump tax bill uh passed the house today, which was important for Trump, this one big beautiful bill that he's been talking about. It passed on a well one vote margin, 215 to 214. Um, look, this bill is one of the reasons why the tax or why the the tenure and 20-year exploded yesterday.
The deficit increase in this bill. Now, Trump argued today, he posted on Twitter that uh the bond market will calm down because there are so many spending cuts in this bill that the bond market doesn't really understand yet in his in his words. And once they do, they're going to relax because it might reduce the deficit.
But a lot of people that have looked at the bill have realized that it's probably going to add a couple trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Will it or will it not? We're going to see. Can we grow out of it? We're going to see. But it got through 215 to 214 in the House. Now it goes to the Senate.
Now the problem is it's not going to be able to get passed in the Senate because you need a 60 vote majority. They don't have 60 Republicans in the Senate. They have 53. So how do you get this pass? You have to do something called reconciliation, which is basically a fasttrack legislative process in Congress that allows certain budget related bills under a lot of different regulations to pass with a simple majority in the Senate.
Uh Trump's 2017 tax cut and jobs act passed via reconciliation. Biden's inflation reduction act passed ri via reconciliation and uh you had a 5150 split to be able to get it passed. The 51st vote ends up being the vice president. So uh Mike Pence passed the 2017 act and Kla Harris packed the passed the 2021 act.
Now what's also really interesting here is that Trump has a 53 um Republican lead in the Senate, right? So there's 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. um they can lose three of those Republicans when they go through reconciliation, which I think they might lose at least one of them. Uh but as long as they get 50, then JD Vance can come in and make the deciding vote.
So they have a margin of safety of three, which is more than Biden had back in 2021. And if they can get it passed via just those 50, then JD Vance will be the deciding vote and uh this bill will be passed. I don't think the stock market has fully priced in what's going to happen when the vote passes.
I think there might be some turmoil, a little bit of volatility, especially if the bond market starts going up, credit market starts going higher, but the majority of what was going to surprise the market has been priced in, right? So there might be some tweaks here and there based on the new stuff that Congress figures out.
Like for example, today, this is what I mean. Solar stocks took a nasty hit. Nphase, Solar Edge, Sunun, all down 20 to 30%. Why? Because in the tax bill, apparently there's a provision to remove the solar panel subsidy that makes it easier for people to uh bring solar panels on their home that currently exists in our economy.
I didn't know that. And if you were a solar investor, you you kind of had to know this. And if you didn't know this, then you got a a nice wakeup call this morning of being down 35% on NPhase because uh most people with oil prices as low as they are and with the general market not giving you the types of subsidies you would need to buy a solar panel, I wouldn't have bought my Tesla if I didn't have the $7,500 subsidy from the the government for EVs.
Um you're just going to have a really bad demand cycle for for solar, especially for for for the earnings that these companies are putting up. So these are the types of different things the market might not know about, different things that are still being negotiated for the bill to get passed by July 4th.
But the majority of it is set in stone. And so the question now becomes over the coming months, what is the credit market's interpretation of this going to be? What is the stock market's interpretation of what the credit market's interpretation of the of the deficit spending is going to be? And how much growth can we unlock via deregulation that's in the bill and all these different tax cuts that can counteract the fact that we have less revenue coming into the United States because of these tax cuts?
These are the questions. But nonetheless, Trump got it passed 215 214. Now it goes to Congress and or now goes to the Senate. And if the Senate passes as well as well, then Trump will sign it. And then boom, we've got a lot of tax cuts coming to the United States. Okay, quick take on Bitcoin. Bitcoin hit all-time highs 112,000.
A lot of people have been asking this question, so I just wanted to answer it here. Why is Micro Strategy not moving with Bitcoin? The reason for this to me is pretty obvious. Micro Strategy is likely diluting shareholders. Now, I don't know exactly if they're doing this. You don't fully know until it happens, but they have a product or a a feature that you can do if you're a public company, uh, with your shares called ATMs, right?
At the money offerings, and you can essentially, if you disclose to your investors at a previous moment in time, sometimes this happens without the disclosures because it's like legal in their bylaws, you can dilute shareholders. You can say, "Hey, we've decided that we are going to sell $100 million more of the company, $100 million of stock to the company, whoever wants to buy it.
We're going to just kind of kind of dump it on the private markets or the public markets, and then people can buy it." Now, the problem is if you own one share and there's 10 shares in the company, you own 10% of the company. If there's now a 100 shares in the company because someone added 90 shares to the overall share count and you own one out of those now 100 shares, you own 1% of the company.
So, you just got diluted by 9%. I think Sailor is doing this on a massive scale and the reason Sailor is doing this on a massive scale is because he knows that Bitcoin is going to win. Today is Bitcoin pizza day. In March or May of 22, 2010, May 22nd, 2010, a guy sold 10,000 Bitcoin to someone else for a Papa John's pizza.
And that 10,000 Bitcoin today would have been worth $1.1 billion. So, it is one of those things where it's like no one believed it when it was less than $100. Now, it's 112,000. I think Sailor believes it's going to be 13 million one day. So, Micro Strategy shareholders are more than happy to be diluted because they know where this train is going and they know it's going up and to the right eventually.
Now, that's really good for Bitcoin, but you got a lot of these Bitcoin treasury companies that are also getting some momentum. So, in Japan, we've got this company called Metanet, which is essentially doing the same thing that Michael Sailor is doing in regards to the Bitcoin treasuries. And they're trading or yesterday they were trading at when they were up 200% in a day, not at 2x nav, 2x the uh net asset value.
Net asset value is how much Bitcoin they have. 2x is the premium on top of that net asset value. Yesterday they were trading at 10x. So if you were buying a share of MetaPlanet, you were essentially paying 10 times more than just buying that same proportional amount of Bitcoin. For what reason? There's a lot of nuances to it.
I'm going to go deeper into it one day, but the sort of main argument is Japan's bonds suck. Their yields are rising like crazy. No one trusts a country that has 250% debt to GDP ratio to actually be able to pay back those bonds. And so the trust of the uh credit markets in Japan, especially, you know, investors that have dealt with the back the Bank of Japan for a while, is starting to deteriorate.
They might be looking to other sources. Could they just buy Bitcoin? Sure. But they might be looking to buy Metaplanet as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin. That stock was down 40% today, though. So the volatility in the Bitcoin treasury companies is now becoming evident. And I think the the the thing to understand here is that even if Bitcoin is going to the moon over the past couple days, we've seen it, but Micro Strategy is basically flat.
It's because they're probably diluting shareholders. Same thing with MetaPlanet to be able to get more money uh to buy Bitcoin. And obviously people are probably taking some profits because you're up 200% in a day. Some people will take some profits. Now the most interesting thing right here about Bitcoin is a chart that I want to share with everybody.
I made this chart in the morning. In March of 2024, Bitcoin was at 70,000. It was breaking out. And you can see right here on the Google search trends, Bitcoin was at an all-time high in terms of the interest that people had. Robin and Coinbase were number like four and five in the app store in the United States.
Um May of 2025, Bitcoin's at 110,000, 40,000 more. Robin and Coinbase are not even in the top 200, and the search volumes are not anywhere near where they were back when Bitcoin was first breaking out. The implication of this is I think it's the Saudis. I think it's the Chinese. I think it's hedge funds that are hedging against their treasury positions with Bitcoin.
I think it is institutional investors that are getting involved in this asset at scale, which is making me actually quite excited about Bitcoin. And given I have a heavy Robin Hood position, I did buy more Robin Hood today and yesterday. Um, I think Bitcoin is really good for their business. And as a result, I just think there's a world where it's like, okay, if the institutions are getting in and they want to be in for a long time, Bitcoin has a shot to go much higher.
All right, last couple things I want to talk about. Uh, Grab, it had a good day, up about 4%. The reason Grab was down over the past couple days was because there were some protests happening in Indonesia for taxi drivers, Grab drivers, go drivers, people that drive these ride hailing gaps. Uh those protests seem to be calming down and the market is kind of just recovering in general.
The S&P 500 was down over the past couple days and that is why I think Graph got hit as badly as it got hit. I think it closed just below $5. But the big story for graph for anyone who's like in interested in the thesis which my conviction is just growing more and more day by day but you got to have patience to kind of see this play out is the acquisition of their competitor in Indonesia.
If they get that acquisition done which I think they will Howard Marks bought 10 million shares. Ray Dalio about bought another four million shares. I mean the tootses are loaded up 80% of institutional owners actually um are part of the float when it comes to grab. So from that perspective I think patience will be important but they are going to hopefully uh get that acquisition done.
Last thing right here is quantum. Quantum had a good day. Uh QUBt up 14%. Regetti up 24%. INQ up 37%. Dwave up 23%. Uh look, I would not chase Quantum. I'm not a chaser. I tend to drink my liquor straight. But uh if you chase today, you've done well. If you chased over the past week, you've done well.
But that, you know, it there tends to be a tipping point. Like Cororeweave, if you chased it yesterday, you did great. Today was down 6%. Like it's just hard to chase these names. So for those that are interested in quantum, I'm getting some questions about it. I don't know the most about quantum computing.
I need to do a lot more research about the technology. I do know that these companies do like a couple million in revenue and they're worth like 10 billion bucks. Valuations are aggressive. Their options markets are incredibly juicy. If you're buying these companies, you're buying them for the future potential, not for the actual earnings.
And so, you have to understand it if you're getting into the quantum names. But, they did have a good day. Final thing right here is Trump signed an executive order on nuclear power that has Oakllo up about uh 10% after hours along with SMR. Uh and the exact wording of this kind of nuclear power thing is that Trump signed a nuclear order on Friday and the order is saying that he wants to unlock different forms of nuclear power and the the reason he wants to unlock these forms of nuclear power is because the US is having not enough uranium dependence and he's invoking the wartime act in order to enable us to have more uranium dependence aka we need more energy And we're too reliant on things that are not rooted in diversified forms of energy like nuclear power, which means we need more uranium.
And in order to actually, you know, get that uranium, you have to invoke something called the wartime act. So all the nuclear stocks, and this was rumored that this was going to happen in the morning. Oklahoma was already up 7% during the day. SMR was up 2% and then boom, they went up like 10% after hours as soon as this came out at around 6 p.m.
So, uh, there are a lot of different headlines that are causing stocks to move to the upside and to the downside, but that's the nature of the market that we're in, and it doesn't look like that market is leaving anytime soon. All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody for listening and watching all the market open, market close, and daily recap episodes this week.
Uh, excited to do this every single day. Happy to do this every single day. I'll be in Boston this weekend. Excited to see people uh live in person. uh face to face and uh there's some cowbells in the back. Do you guys see those right there? Those are some cbells. If you come to the meet up, you're gonna get a little cowbell that you can ring every day with me at the market open.
So, I'll see everybody on the Sunday future show for the stream before we get into the market open starting Monday and then daily recaps. We'll be back on Monday. Bye everybody. Thank you for watching. Have a good one.
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