์ ์: 10XTrading์งํ์ ยท ์ธ๊ตญ์ธ
์์ฝ ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ ์ง์ ์ฌ์ ์ต๊ณ ์น ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ํ์ ์ฐ์ค์์ฅ ๊ณตํ๋น ์์ ํ์ฌ ๊ณ ๋ฐ(๋ฆฌ๋ ธ๋ฒ ์ด์ ๋น์ฉ ์ด๊ณผ) ์ด์๋ฅผ ๋ค๋ฃธ. ๊ธฐ์ ์ ๋ถ์์ S&P500ยท๋์ค๋ฅ์ ์์น ์ถ์ธ ์ ์ง, ๋จ ๋ฐ๋์ฒดยท๋งค๊ทธ๋ํผ์ผํธ7 ๊ณ ์ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์ ํธ ์ธ๊ธ. ๊ธ์ 3,420 ์ ํญ ์๋, ์์ 40๋ฌ๋ฌ ๋ชฉํ, ๋นํธ์ฝ์ธ์ 114~116k ์ง์ง ๋ฐ 108~110k ์ฌํ ์คํธ ๊ฐ๋ฅ์ฑ, ๋ฌ๋ฌ์ธ๋ฑ์ค๋ 97.5 ์ดํ ์ ์ฝ์ธ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ . ํ ์ฌ๋ผ 310 ํํ ์ ์ฝ์ธ, PLTR 134~148 ์ง์ง, ํ์ดํ์ 72~73 ์ง์ง ์ ์ง ํ์ํ๋ ์ฅ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ๋ฅ ๊ด์ .
๋ค๋ฌ์ ๊ธ
Hello and welcome to 10X Trading. In today's video, we analyze the markets in detail and provide an update on four stocks from the 10X Watchlist. But before we start, a reminder about today's stock market video with detailed analyses of Coca-Cola, Lulu, Lemon, Solar Edge and Plug Power. Link to the video in the video description, and with that, welcome to today's news video on Monday, July 21st.
It is a day on which the US indices reach new all-time highs. We will of course take a look at that in the chart analysis. We will also talk about the news that went through the ticker today . Jerome Paul may even be on the verge of being charged. We will now take a look at the accusations being made here and how the whole situation is likely to be assessed.
Fittingly, tomorrow's business calendar also lists a speech by a chairwoman at 2:30 pm . Paul is speaking, so we'll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings. Pre-market trading also very, very early in the United States, here's the economic calendar, with Chairman Paul in the foreground . On Wednesday, the crude oil inventories will be released, on Thursday the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing and service sectors in the United States and Germany, and the ECB's interest rate decision.
Now we assume that the interest rates will remain constant at 2% on our deposits and 2.15% for the Light account. And on Friday there will be the Ifo Business Climate Index. So we don't necessarily see anything groundbreaking in the economic data right now. However, this makes the earnings season all the more interesting to assess.
Tomorrow's pre-market trading will include figures from Coca-Cola, followed by Intuitive Surgical, SAP and Nface after-hours trading. On Wednesday, the earnings from the BigTech sector, or rather from the Magnificent 7 sector, will be released after the market closes with the figures from Tesla and Alphabet.
But other sizes are also included. For example, the figures released Wednesday after the market closed, also from Service Now. In the run-up to autumn, we had AT&T and T Thermofischer and Furf among those present. Could you please write in the comments whether you would be interested in the FILF series right now?
Then we can possibly include them in the video . On Thursday, American Airlines' figures will be released, followed by Intel's figures, among others, both before and after the market closes. So, a very important week, especially regarding the reporting season, and very important weeks, and above all, if Donald Trump has his way, the last weeks in which he can call himself FET chief , are beginning for Jerome Paul.
Officially, his term of office runs until May of next year, but as they say, things are getting a bit heated towards him now, and it must also be said that the saying usually applies here: if you can't stand the heat, then don't work in the kitchen . And one can assume that he has a thick skin here, but it is quite clear how Jerome Paul is being targeted.
Today there was the headline about Congresswoman Anna Paulina, a criminal referral against Federal Reserve Chair Paul with the DOG. So this is a recommendation to the Doog to take a very close look at Jerome Paul. You can see exactly what this is about on the right-hand side . It's about the renovation of the building.
This is the headquarters of the Federal Reserve. And here Jeron Paul is now accused of having knowingly increased the additional costs โ originally, the renovation was supposed to cost 1.9 billion US dollars . That then increased to 2.5 billion. When we consider our long-term construction projects in Germany, these are still manageable sums.
And here it seems that he has now dismissed or presented the cost increase as minor and attributable to simplifications, while also mentioning his luxurious additions such as a VIP area, premium marble cladding, etc., and a very expensive fountain. So, this is aboutโ and this really needs to be put into perspectiveโ nothing during his time in office as Fettscher per se, or anything that would get him into legal trouble with the topic of monetary policy.
Rather, it's an accusation, a shot in the dark, so to speak, by a Republican congresswoman just taking a little shot at Paul. I am excited. He has already rejected the accusations and commissioned a further review of the renovation records and the renovation project itself . So, in my opinion, it's definitely not nearly as hot as some of the headlines here today have made it out to be.
The fact is, DOJ is looking at this now , looking towards Paul, but in my opinion this is simply another smokescreen being thrown and another attack on him, possibly to force him to resign prematurely. It will be interesting to see whether he even addresses these accusations tomorrow, what his overall stance will be, and, most importantly for us, whether he will actually complete his term properly or cave in under the massive pressure that Donald Trump is putting on him, especially given that he simply refuses to lower interest rates.
Donald Trump has long been shouting that rates are at least 200, if not 300 basis points too high , meaning they should be at 1 to 2% , while Paul keeps playing the same old record: well, first we'll see how inflation comes back, and then maybe at some point in the long run there will be a merciful interest rate cut.
Trump simply won't stand for that anymore . He wants his line to be continued or to be carried through, and that is of course diametrically opposed, one must say, to how Jerome Pul has expressed himself in recent public appearances . Well, it's not as hot as it was ultimately portrayed here today, that much is clear .
Above all, it's not about any fundamentally big things that went wrong during his term of office, or any real absolute bombshells that he produced here. This concerns the renovation of the Fett building, and to be perfectly clear, it concerns 600 million US dollars that he is accused of declaring differently than how they were ultimately used .
Certainly, it would n't be a walk in the park even in a worst-case scenario, but I have to say, I think it's more like I'm desperately looking for a skeleton in someone's closet because I really want to pin something on them, rather than these actually being serious, concrete accusations . And now, leaving behind stock market gossip and topics that should really be far, far outside our purview, we come to the essentials: chart analysis.
But I must say, it really does have a decent entertainment factor in and of itself. I ca n't remember when in recent years, since I started making the videos โ under Joe Biden, that was ultimately in 2022 when we started โ I've been offered even remotely as much popcorn entertainment as is currently the case .
It's entertaining, but it can also very easily distract from the essentials and, above all, it can very easily suggest that the market is or could be much more dangerous than it possibly is. And that's why it's so important, so as not to be led astray in one direction or another . Of course, to avoid building castles in the air, chart analysis is simply the method of choice.
And here we begin with the price of oil. It's sitting on the support level, has moved down a bit, but is now reacting exactly where we talked about it last week , namely on the 50-day line here at around 55 to 65.50. However, this area needs to be closely monitored, because especially below 65 to 64 US dollars there is nothing that could prevent us from following this bad pattern .
So now the oil price has even more downsides. However, it is currently also accompanied by a small Cher buy signal at the support level. So, observe that above 65 the oil price has another chance for an increase, and we are currently seeing that with the gold price. Easy transition here to this chart.
But they are completely neutral, that really needs to be said. Since the top 12, we have had touchpoints in a downward trend, and since the low point here after the old time high on May 15th, we have 1, 2, 3 touchpoints now on the lower side, so four touchpoints in total, so the third one above is now incoming.
This must be clearly seen as the primary scenario, that we will probably be testing the 4, the 340 to 3420, here. However, the gold price would only create a truly bullish signal if it were to complete this harmonic pattern here, for example, and then consolidate at 3430, in order to then retest the breakout from the trend from above while consolidating .
And that would clearly be a path the gold price could take, even towards new all-time highs. We now need to keep an eye on the 3360 level and the rising trend here, which would then actually be defined. At 3330, the gold price is now showing some slightly bullish tendencies, but is approaching a resistance level here.
The price of silver is developing in a technically phenomenal way and exactly as we projected. I am absolutely thrilled, I must say. We talked about this harmonic at the beginning. It played out perfectly at the top , then came the pullback down to the marked Golden Sohn. The lowest point was exactly the top edge of the target zone, and now the price of silver is working its way back up from here.
It is incredibly beautiful, incredibly technical, incredibly momentum-driven, one has to say. 3912, 39.30 is 13, it is the current high. The target zone above that is roughly between $40 and $ 40.20; that's the area, and a pullback from here down to $38, $50, $60 would be a very, very good buying opportunity.
Overall, a wonderful upward trend, which may just be on the verge of reaching multi-year highs again, and then we know the silver price can break out very explosively. As long as we leave this trend structure untouched, the price of silver is definitely driven by momentum. However, the situation is slightly different with Bitcoin.
Not only do we now see a small potential bull trap, which is definitely something to consider in such a phase, because we had an attempt to break out today and now we can see that it was a bullish engulfinze, so we absolutely cannot write off last night's candle, and it is all the more important to assess this horizontal support zone here .
But we see a slight fakeout from the downward run above, and that's not even Bitcoin-like in this absolute momentum-driven run right now. So that 's more of a point. Ah yes, okay, we just had the moment for a driven run and may need to refuel a little more, which wouldn't be a problem at all , it really must be said.
The $114,000 to $116,000 level is important as a key support level, and who would be offended if there were a backtest down here, perhaps between $ 108,000 and $110,000, just to really make a move with some force? That would be another absolute trade setup down here, especially considering the 50-day moving average at $ 109,000.
Of course, anyone who is up here in the short term and possibly with significant leverage has a big problem, because that would mean that those we might still have on the spot could cause up to 10% downside damage, and thus considerable damage. Especially if a lever then moves against it. So it's essential to pay attention to whether this trend remains intact, or more precisely, whether it stays at the 114 to 115,000 level .
However, a very clear warning signal appeared today in the US Dollar Index, namely this current selloff, which must be taken seriously. Today we also fell just below that brutal level of Wick from last week. What is currently supporting us here is the 20- day line and the area around 97.6 near Dixie.
However, if you look at this structure in the one-hour chart, then since this trend has now been broken, and that was the case today, which is why we're talking about it, you can definitely draw a harmonic here. That would definitely be a 38 here, then we have a slight double top and then you could draw down to an 886 here .
So, in this already difficult asset, in this already difficult environment, you have now created a warning signal. This trend has now come to an end for the time being. Now we need to observe whether this horizontal zone holds. And if it doesn't stay below 97.5, then things will get really slippery for the Dixi.
Above all, one would have to pay attention to the 61 FB here as well. This is now the make-or-break support zone. We are already in a potential support zone, but the dip below it is very important to assess, because it is essential to keep this harmonic pattern on the chart and to determine whether it ultimately reaches the higher low, which would be perfectly fine , that would then need to be reassessed.
But what I don't like in this context is that the Dixi up here has also rejected this trend for now; this is a warning signal, it is not potentially the end of the story. If the bottom is in here, then we will see it when we experience a really crisp ball again, either at 61 or at current levels or then at 886, but it is definitely a shot in the foot or a blow to this so far quite interesting-looking potential trend reversal, especially because the resistance here was also exactly at the 50-day line.
This brings us to the S&P 500, which today reached a new all-time high of 6336. This is, of course, very pleasing to the inner perfectionist . 6336 points is currently the newly established all-time high. And we can see a nice structural increase here as well. The 6200s were the support. He not only held the all-time high last Thursday, but also on Friday, and now, most importantly, he's already hot for a new all-time high today.
I'm going to take this Wedch out now, because we simply need to work our way forward here, specifically in this stair-like fashion; we have it again, what was the resistance here, the 6280 has now become the support, with the result that we are screwing our way upwards. We're making the next significant high here as a new level and have a very clear small support zone between 6280 and 6300.
Below that, things get critical towards 62, and it remains to be seen whether we'll see another moment where, after such support at 62, it might become resistance, and whether we're perhaps seeing a fakeout today . This is purely hypothetical, showing how one might technically see a potential commodity signal in the chart.
None of that is currently available; we'll have to wait and see. But beyond 63, the wild journey definitely continues for now, and maybe, just maybe, we'll actually see the 6511, because then we would have really reached a goal, namely TopD the 127 extension, and would then technically have a really nice basis for a pullback.
Fall height, fall height, fall height. That's all the market is currently working out to ensure that, in the event of a pullback, which will undoubtedly come ( it's just a matter of time), there's sufficient cushion against the downside. And as long as we don't see a significantly deeper low that's then countered, simply by the lower high, the market analysts, while well- intentioned, have every reason to naturally ask, "Hey, how long did he actually intend to keep rising?" They don't have a setup, though.
We come to the Nasch 100. Here, the breakout from the ascending triangle is what's important, and we've already discussed the objective here . This is this small range, and this is a touch higher. That 's around 23400 . Here, it would be the 23800 that would ultimately mark the 127th . And here it must be said very clearly , even more clearly, how frustrating do you want the market to be for short sellers , in order to keep triggering these breakouts?
You are currently testing stoically. Stoic, that's nothing else. Stoic, old tops as new support rise, here for all I care draw the next level. Let's see if he's already using the 23150 by then. But she can also add another 23,000 to that. Rising highs, rising lows, and as long as that's the case, you're either a trend follower in this market or looking for setups on an individual stock basis .
But one must be aware that, apart from what I just said about Dream and the accusation against market participants, tell me, how long did he actually intend to keep rising after 45%? You simply don't have a setup for a short here . And this situation could escalate further , namely the situation of a potential report up.
If the chart, which is technically extremely honest and above all must be considered ultra bullish, does exactly what it looks like. This is still the scanner that screws upwards candle by candle, its baddownscell, and I see here the absolute potential selling point. I really don't want to leave any doubt about that.
If there is a sell point in the Magnificent 7 chart , it is this red box above that connects the 886 Fibonacci and the all-time highs . If we consolidate here above the 886, if we break out and the market simply receives no downward momentum , then the big ones will melt upwards, also towards their 127 extension, but will instead all come and strip down the seven individual stocks one after the other, where they will then head accordingly.
A Tesla will probably run at 380 to 420 km/h. Nvidia will be heading towards the 200, Microsoft will be heading towards the 550, 560. The targets are there. The goals are definitely there. The question is, who isn't there? And the bears aren't there, because they have a mission here. They have been instructed here to use the goals we have achieved here to also take profits.
And if they don't , it simply has to be said very clearly that often the path of least resistance is simply the side road. Above all, as we talked about yesterday, we also need to factor in cash flows, specifically the CTAS in Win? Where do they go in? They primarily go where the liquidity is. This is still the place to be.
This should definitely be at the very top of your watchlist . And as long as no structural breaks need to take place here at Magnificent 7, because a) they are the earnings machines, b) it is the number one destination where the passive flows go into the ETFs and of course also where the algos park their money and also go in.
is the place to be and that's why these charts are so incredibly technical, honest and also reliable in terms of differentiation, as long as this trend holds โ and this applies not only to Max 7, but also to SOX โ you need a clear downside, i.e., the semiconductor stocks, and as long as that doesn't happen, there's nothing to counter the momentum on the short seller side, except especially for us as small investors with small pockets, with high leverage, who are then regularly killed by the market.
We do n't have the money to say, "I'm not interested in that." I'll add some more butter here. I then have a Short Dollar Cost Average up here, which at least gives me a break-even point in the event of a pullback. Very few people are like that; most go in here with leverage and are already bankrupt by the time the actual selling point comes around a little higher.
And as long as we are in this position of being very selective with our money , I would simply be a little cautious about betting against these incredibly stable money-printing machines. And one of these money-printing machines, which we have with us every day in the video, is the Nvidia. And Nvidia simply isn't showing us much interest in somehow getting rid of the sellers up here.
On the contrary, I'm still watching the $169 mark up here like a luxurie. If we break below that level, the momentum will come to an abrupt end , and the steeper of the two trends will break us. Then we have at least the 20-day line at 161. If that breaks, then we're talking about the 50-day line. If that breaks, then we're talking about the 200-day line.
We know that Nvidia can become quite unpleasant at the bottom, especially when many are frustrated or when many were a bit too optimistic about Gear in the top range . It can definitely be a top-notch product . But if we were just talking about Mac 7, and the sellers might not be coming in here, then it's the 141, or the 180 or the 161, i.e.
the $195 to $200, that one simply has to keep an eye on in a trend-following analysis here, and only that makes sense, with Nvidia. And the second stock that drives the Max7 is, of course, Tesla, which we also include almost daily. And with that, I'm also illustrating for myself this risk-on behavior with Max 7, but also the very trend-stable behavior with Max 7, which is Nvidia and Tesla for me, simply Tesla, also a bit like a gamble with these seven stocks, and one has to say, today we saw a new high for the first time and there's a heartline running somewhere here.
That 's so crazy. This is that ultra-large trend channel that we've looked at many times before. And here I see my dotted red line, the heart line. And this is exactly where we can and must say we're seeing such a gigantic trend. I never believe in random markets, but it could be a coincidence, or it might not, that the heart line has held today, but we'll see .
Rising highs, rising lows, yes, Shooting Star, it's all coming to an end now with Tesla here on the 8- hour chart, what we see with the 8- hour candle. Let's wait and see, just let's wait and see. It's not for nothing that we've marked our target zone on the chart at the 200- day moving average, 315, and 314 on the downside.
But of course, it's crucial to be clear that when certain setups start to play out, or are in the process of playing out, and send warning signalsโlike a shooting star potentiallyโwell, then I need to be even more selective with my support levels and be even more aware that once you've bought at support, you're already on a nice cushion.
However, from the current perspective, things would likely get a bit uncomfortable for Tesla below 310. And as I said, the stock market is about reacting; it's never about knowing, it's about seeing and reacting, right? So I'll react now and say: "Okay, Tesla will no longer trade below $310 and everything above that has a price target of $360 for me." And Perlant here also thanks everyone for the massive cash flows of the last few weeks with a nice mild Pullberg.
Actually, one has to say that this is exactly what the cops want to see. And actually, I should also say, of course I would take the projection. That was absolutely perfect. This definitely clears the way for us to simply grab this yellow box and push it up here, and just like that, we already have a new potentially high support level for the Palani.
Why do we need this? Yes, because Parlan is simply a sick cop here. There's no other way. This is something that needs to be addressed very clearly. Here at Parland, if there's a stock in the current market where I'm really looking at the very highest conceivable support levels , then it's of course the PLTR, and I have to say, well, okay, then that would just be a pullback in the Vampising Watch , building up within this channel.
If this trend line breaks, which further reinforces this horizontal support , then I will slide towards 134, no question about it. But as long as it can hold above the 146 to 148 range, what we are currently seeing may already be another small, crisp 5, 6, 7 percent pullback. That could be enough for the stock.
If it's not enough, though, things get slippery, and then we might even get something like, in quotation marks, real technical value. (Don't lynch me in the comments for using the word "technical," please refer to the technical value of the Palan stock here, which for me would be somewhere between 139 and 136.) Now we come to Painperl, and slowly but surely I'm beginning to understand why this stock is such a pain for you .
But I would also like to make it very clear why it absolutely is not for me. will never be . However, I still have a very clear price target and a very clear strategy for PayPal, and we will now discuss that. Is this the bath pattern we talked about last week playing out? Another intermediate rally might be over here.
Yes, my goodness, and how the downward trend has continued since deep in April. Now it briefly shoots up again today and hits the target up here, 7620, which is nothing other than the low of this small Doji candle, only to then take profits again. And as I said, as long as this trend continues, everything's cool.
But because we may have just completed a pattern within this structure, if this does n't hold, then it could even happen, and then we could even see the stock fall again, at least between 68 and 63 US dollars, and that's why it's extremely important that if it shows a pullback here, it does n't fall below 72 to 73 US dollars.
This trend must continue. Otherwise, we have nothing else up here. It's a Betton 886 Fibonacci small double top. Within this structure, and we weren't even at the peak, we have certainly created a warning signal . So, for those who are playing this in the short term, which is not my approach, it's absolutely essential to understand that the stock will suffer again as soon as this trend breaks, and from the current perspective, it would break below 72, at which point it would also break below the 50-day moving average.
It is also perfectly clear to me that this squabbling since 2022 is no fun for anyone. No matter how perfectly you called the low at $50, you're currently 50% up, but were already almost 100% up, and in the big picture you've been treading water, because who actually bought the bottom? That's the very few.
What is my approach? My position at Pir is small enough that all this fuss down here doesn't affect me. I don't see that in the portfolio either, even if it's down 5%. That wo n't hurt my portfolio; I would never allow that to happen. But would it be fun for my portfolio, or for me personally, if this trade pays off, if the $149 to $180, which is clearly my major target for the PER in the medium to long term, is reached?
Yes, that will certainly be fun , because then we're talking about this small part of the portfolio that doesn't bother me in this small, incremental downside , but which is large enough, of course, that this rally will then be enjoyable. This is my approach. When in doubt, zoom out, and so a Psychology of a Wall Street Cycle Chart, which clearly follows here, is the definition of this chart.
Is the rise, the hype phase, the double top, the crash, the depression phase, now the disbelief rally phase, the breakout above 100 US dollars will then be the first part of the belief rally. Then we move on to the fact that people are talking again about how great the stock is. Then we come to the Euphia phase here, and whether they then reach 180, 220, 250 up here, I've never shown them, but up here they reach 380 to 470, which is nonsense to talk about here, because that is never a primary scenario, design is also picked up on this channel.
We will see this reflected upwards as profits are taken. That's the important point. We are anchoring here at a potential cycle bottom, and the cycle bottom, the Composite Man, is someone you have to take seriously and be afraid of. The Compositeman is someone who loves moves like that. He has such deep pockets that he would shop here until he's finished.
And suddenly the trend reverses, and then the composite man lives off the fact that he has built up his position here, and that the positive news situation then pumps his bags, which he has collected, upwards until he is satisfied up here. And those who then say, wow, this is the new Max 7 stock, you'll see, he thanks them and they get to take over the shares and ultimately pumped his bags down here .
This is a very important concept of accumulation. The Composite Man is the Wof accumulation theory, and that is a very, very important point. Always think like the Composite Man, and he would never let himself get dragged into rallies during such a long-term upward trend, perhaps even with leverage, only to then suffer significant damage from a stock that is at best in the late to final stages of bottoming out.
And that brings us to the end of today's newsvo. If it provided added value for you, then give it a thumbs up . Feel free to leave a nice comment and subscribe to 10x Trading, and also move the comment function to the side and click "hype" for the videos. This definitely gives the channel more reach, and you can already see the first results of that.
So this is definitely something where you can contribute very strongly to ensuring that 10X Trading continues to play an even bigger role on YouTube, and please feel free to join the Discord. Become an A10X member via the link in the video description for massive added value, for daily market analysis directly on your mobile phone for stock analyses and of course also the chats with the many, many, many like-minded and relevant members.
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