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and it creates these bubbles here and a bubble there and lately it's been a bubble everywhere this is a unique situation well this is obviously a very complex question because as you know an economy consists of different sectors and in the global economy we have different countries at different state es of Economic Development and then we had this huge financial bubble in the world called the financial system and uh some markets are very high at statistically seen the US is very highly valued at the present time in particular the popular stocks the F stocks uh The Magnificent Seven of us and we have other markets that are relatively depressed and some markets are actually also in absolute terms depressed and I'm bringing this up because people when you meet them at parties and at uh whatever events they always say yeah I want to buy low and sell high but actually throughout Financial history people have done exactly the opposite they buy high and sell low I mean this is a remarkable thing I mean I'm bringing this up because as you know at the present time individuals and institutions in America have piled into US stocks and uh the cash positions of both individuals and of financial institutions as a percentage of total assets is very low is at the record low so the public and the financial institutions are euphoric about this Market especially after Trump got elected but at the same time you have say a proven investor that has done well over half a century who is increasing his cash position so you have the masses of people who buy things they have actually no clue about they say yes Nidia is good with exactly what Nidia does they don't know these are the same people that vot Cisco in 1999 2000 and one man who essentially is a patient investor he's not a genius he says himself and Charlie Mong who passed away recently they both argued their strength is their patience and also long-term orientation and that they don't have to deliver every quarter result results so this man War buffer as a percentage of total assets he's at a record high it gives you something to think about I mean philosophically uh the public buying like crazy and one man who is a proven investor is maintaining a high cash position and concerning the economy all I can tell is that we had a setback I'd call it actually an artificial setback brought about by covid but as we know now and as some people knew right from the start this Co is an organized business deal the purpose of which eludes me somewhat but anyway the economy collapsed and from the collapsed low say in May June 2020 we had a recovery in the global economy but most sectors of the global economy are still below the level in 2019 2018 so we had a recovery but it's not as strong as one would have expected it to be and some countries are are actually hardly recovering and some sectors are actually way down from the peak level in 2019 partly because Society has changed so the global economy in my view is is actually weak whether it will tilt into a serious re recession or not I wouldn't know but one thing I know we're dealing with a two- tiered economy the money printing by the FED has not helped the typical household not at all the typical household is faced and this is not only in the US is in Europe the same and in other countries the same is faced with cost of living increases that EX seed his wage gains and as a result of that over 70% of people in the US live paycheck to paycheck paycheck to paycheck means essentially you have to wait for your check at the end of the month to pay your bills that is the definition of living paycheck to paycheck in my view it's a modern form of slavery because the people who who live on paychecks they cannot express their own opinions they have to do what they're told by the system or by the companies they work for and so and the rich people they benefited from money Printing and this is that the crazy thing about monetary inflation it distorts everything uh the price prices are very difficult to deter me uh you can say this is expensive compared to that and so but it's very difficult to say this is absolutely expensive or absolutely cheap because the monetary inflation touches different sectors of the economy at different times and it creates these bubbles here and a bubble there and lately it's been a bubble everywhere this is a unique situation the FED in my opinion the Central Bank in America they're probably right to cut interest rates I'm not saying they're right absolutely but probably right when they look at the labor market and when they look at the real economy of poor people of the typical household in America but if I gave someone the financial pi picture and said Bitcoins is at an alltime high gold is near a high stocks are at an alltime high and that the inflation is such and such and uh I look at inflation from a different perspective as the Bureau of Labor Statistics the ownership of gold is a necessity for anyone who wants to keep liquidity uh and it's purchasing power because paper money loses the purchasing power but not gold and my view is that as long as we have Central Banking in the world and some academics kind of telling you the inflation is 2% or so when their wives when they go shopping they know that it's more than that the BLS had health care cost down 30% over the last three years I mean it's a mindboggling nonsense but this is what this the publish and as IA said gold is actually reflecting precisely what is happening now in the world in the sense that the liquidity is so huge that it drives up some crazy assets like cryptocurrencies and I'm not saying that gold is a crazy asset but if there was monetary stability gold wouldn't be in a bull market the gold price is telling you there is monetary instability and that this instability will lead like Ira suggested to a recession at some point most people are already in recession but the government can show that GDP is going up because the government is spending money through the deficits and my view is that we are in a period of turmoil and that resource oriented stocks say you take oil stocks as that the whole oil sector as a percent of the S&B it's at the historical low or close to a historical low whereas tech stocks are up here in the sky and I've just seen I mean John hosman he's not the most bullish person but statistically he's well informed and he published statistics showing how the most expensive stocks and the most popular stocks perform in in the long run and in the long run they don't perform better than the market so it means that when they're grossly overpriced like the case is now they will underperform for a while and I thought this is very interesting that the Public's money flows into most overvalued type of or expensive shares and statistically we can measure the PE the price to sales The Price to Book and the US market is at the historic High valuation
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