저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: PSTH(Pershing Square Tontine) 투자는 불확실성이 커 수익 기대보다 리스크 관리가 우선이라는 취지의 영상이다. [딜 구조] 빌 애크먼의 PSTH가 유니버설뮤직그룹(UMG) 인수 관련 협상 중이며, 총 56억 달러 규모 중 41억 달러가 UMG 지분 매입에 쓰일 것으로 설명했다. 기존 SPAC 구조에서 벗어나 스팩이 아니게 되면서 주가 하한(플로어)이 사라졌다고 지적했다. [워런트·권리 관련] 워런트는 UMG 주식으로 직접 전환되지 않고 PSTH 주식으로 교환하는 옵션이 주어지며, 교환 조건이 복잡해 손실 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 통상 '공정하다'고 포장되지만 투자자가 손해를 볼 수 있다는 점을 강조했다. [스파크(SPARC) 관련] 별도 사업 구조로 스파크 권리(행사가 20달러, 5년 행사 기간)가 PSTH 주주에게 배분되며, 최대 106억 달러 규모의 추가 투자 여력이 언급됐다. 대상 기업은 정해지지 않았다. [투자 판단] 영상 화자는 PSTH가 더 이상 스팩이 아니어서 하방이 열려 있으므로 비중을 포트폴리오의 5~10% 이하로 제한할 것을 권했다. 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않았다. [출연자 전망] 애크먼이 초기 투자자를 보호할 것으로 기대하면서도 구조적 불확실성이 크다는 입장이다.
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the golden unicorn has finally whispered and it's real confusing but that's why specs are beautiful but then again that's why they can be confusing and you get a lot of volatility which i personally enjoy why because i know how to sell the green and buy on the right days shouldn't you hey uh follow savvy money show if you haven't he's great you've got some good ideas he's trying to lay it out i pulled some information from him there's other dude on twitter named uh ryrice c right right c came out this graph here i tried to kind of recreate it but you can't even really graph a lot of it is my other homie ray charles he came up with a lot of information to talk about here below follow him on twitter he's great he said in the sec filing it says that no warrants will be transferred for umg shares okay let's start over right what do we got psth is basically in rumored talks with universal music group universal music group so what do we got we got like the biggest artists in the world some of them it's one of the biggest entertainment things out there i'm sure they make money on concerts i'm sure they had trouble last year because of the whole march thingy and no concerts allowed and all that stuff right um regardless it's one of the music unicorns all right everybody knows the brand if you don't know the exact brand of universal you definitely know at least probably half the artist in it which is rad i i think that uh we got definitely market overreaction negatively to this it's kind of well it is bill spacman's fault all right because guess what he let it leak first on accident and then he came out and tried to save it but he still made it way confusing he didn't even give a real prime example of what's going on at the end of the day though if if you're in this if you're back holding you think you're screwed but i think everyone's pretty much going to be fine the warrants are still kind of wonky chunky donkey right now i'll give you an option for that here in a little bit but basically what we got is we got the 5.6 merce all right 5.6 billion dollar mike tyson's speech spa right uh 4.1 billion of that is gonna go towards a purchase of shares of umg okay so spacman basically said i know you all signed up for a spec but guess what it's not a spack anymore okay crazy right not a smack anymore all right we're just buying a percent of that 5.6 with umg all right so we're buying 10 percent cool whatever do you really care at the end of the day i don't uh no merger taking place this is a purchase of umg stock umg will list on euro next amsterdam exchange in q3 of this year once listed is completing completed so once it's done being listed psth will distribute the umg shares so essentially if you're in psth shares right now once that thing lists we're just going to be kind of converted but actually just like given umg shares i don't care really honestly i'll take them redeemable warrants will not become excisable exercisable for shares of umg very important there holders of current outstanding warrants will be given the option to exchange the warrants for shares of psth during a warrant exchange offering they usually try to make these what they consider fair but sometimes people get screwed dude so i don't know if i was in warrants i'd probably be transferring them over if i wanted to go long this thing i'd probably transfer them over to like calls on this or just regular common shares because the warrants even though they might seem okay on paper at the current time could still kind of get the butt into the deal it could get the better end of the deal but it's risky we're kind of rolling dice tontine warrants will be distributed after completion of the warrant exchange offering even weirder right holders of the record before the warrant exchange offering will receive the taunton warrant so what's going on you're like kind of not getting anything it seems like right it's kind of confusing right there we need some clarification for the warrants stuff tanked basically it's sitting at the floor uh the rest of the 1.5 billion will remain in pp psdh and in funds that pershing square will still have the right to add another 1.4 billion to total about 3 billion total what so we basically we split it we took most of it and are buying 10 of universal the rest he's kind of starting another spec but it won't be us back it's going to be treated like a spec you know the new cool thing let's like do a spec that's not a spec so there's no floors not all the safety stuff and then still try to find companies that's kind of what you're getting with that side one i don't want any i mean i'm sure he'll end up finding something probably pretty decent on that other side fantastic but we're into specs for many many reasons um if i'm end up surfing this one for free because of whatever all this confusing stuff happens here fine i'll surf something for free because i'm still surfing for free on this i hope you all are too um but other than that like this is just not something i would chase regardless look at this psth will no longer be treated as a spec under nyse listing rules spark spr see special purpose acquisition rights company is what it's turning to right i don't know uh it is not a spec spark will not raise capital spark will issue rights acquired to acquire common stock at twenty dollars a share to psth holders which can be exercised after spark enters into a definitive agreement and exercisable for five years so you could roll the dice on this and this is kind of like having a warrant for a spec even though it's not will be distributed for each share of psh you own on this specif specified date right that this happens for the da assuming all spars are exercised spark will raise 5.6 billion in cash pershing allowed to do 1 billion and up to 5 billion more giving spark up to 10.6 billion to spend so this is a whole nother side play thing that we can kind of get involved in early but it's just kind of sketchy but them naming these big numbers and stuff right here kind of tells me they probably i guarantee they got more that they want to do other than universal they've had all this time they know people yadda yadda who knows could be one of the other mini targets we talked about maybe stripe right maybe subway you cannot buy spark until the dea is reached so no risk of spending money on spark without knowing what the target is that sounds nuts if you don't like the target you don't have to spend any money spark will not have any warrants this is likely due to the new rules of how warrants are accounted for so we're going to have a spag but it won't be called spec it will be kind of like one but with no protection and then we'll kind of do more to kind of not not do real warrants because this is what happens when the seconds involves and makes more rules seem like a jumbled mess it kind of is dude um here's the underlying question that uh rape charles put out which i think he did great he said what i don't understand yet is if the 14.75 per share of psth going to umg universal and the 5.25 per share of psth remaining as the psth means that we will be getting the same amount of shares of umg as we have of psth so remember like our floor on psth is like what 21 uh yeah it's like 21 right about 21 so like that so he's saying 1475 is going towards the umg and then that other five is going towards this new plan for whatever the new spac knocks back is and the value of psta shares go down a ton so let's say if that 5 or 25 cents goes down a ton which it can or if roughly 75 of our psth shares go away and receive the umg shares leaving roughly 25 of our psta shares at the normal price this is just my understanding i could be totally wrong but after reading the filing that's how i kind of take it right because remember we are getting rid of the floor here on this so once this merger happens with this let's call it glorified ipo just call it that happens the reason i don't like ipos because they usually do this they usually do this at the beginning for the first week and a half and then they do this okay so i usually wait about three months until they get here and then i buy and then it rips up right to match where it was before because it's 50 off or whatever it's just kind of a mess dude um it i'd say this is probably the good and the bad side of of spax right this is definitely the scare tactic the volatile side of it we could all end up printing like crazy on this though right if i had over 10 of my portfolio in this depending on where you bought right um let me just put it this way i wouldn't want to have over five to ten percent of my portfolio into this at this point it is a dice roll i think ackman i think he will still take care of us you know and make sure that as early investors will be taken care of for being along the ride and all that but still it's funky dude because even he doesn't know after this merger if we're gonna get screwed or not because there could be the massive dump that happens or we could get nuts and it could be hyping so well that it rips but that's why i don't like this because it's technically not a spec anymore so we don't have a floor and you can't why dude why take the risk that's what i look at right i even if i was down 20 on something involved in this right at this point i'd probably rather you know maybe leave some to surf in there if you want um but take the rest and put it into some of these floored ish specs that have warrants that kind of be the play on that i'd probably rather move it to something like that because you have a lot more protection it's probably gonna be easier to multiply i don't know i'm sure at the end of the day this is gonna be fine deal but my problem is that even if ackman really wants to take care of the unicorn lovers out there he still had really has no control of it anymore because it's not a spec right all the other people that are holding the umg could dump the second we get our shares and screw everybody over yikes that's what i think i think the next one though do watch i mean not the next spat because it's not whatever this other side hustle for up to 10.6 billion ends up being i think he's got something definitely in line with that because right out the gate he's adding another uh he's saying he can add a 1.5 to 3 and then to 5 and then to 10.6 so i don't know it's just gonna be the stripe i don't know trader joe's something right like that it could be it's just a shaky moment you should be a little bit shaky on this reading more uh we're trying to get more information on a bill right now to say dude just give us like a real life example if you have 100 shares this hundred shares that what literally happens with where the warrants go i think we pretty much sumped it up though it's just kind of rocky that's the definitive answer there really isn't one until we see the investor presentation and see the exacts of everything are we even going to see an investor presentation i believe we have to see something some sort of sex filing that's going to describe and give us real hard numbers of the percents and all that just remember we no longer are going to be having protection on this and this is why i'm anti-non-spam do you think
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