저자: AlecHogg · 외국인
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결론: 버핏식 가치투자 — 기업의 내재가치를 추정하고 안전마진(예: 20%) 아래에서 매수해 장기 보유하라는 메시지. 거시 상황 설명: 은행주 2일간 20% 하락, 채권도 약 10% 손실 등 시장 급변을 언급하며, 인플레이션 7%·생산자물가 9.1%·금리 75bp 인상 등 당시 거시 지표를 제시하고 이를 '뉴스가 아닌 노이즈'로 볼 수 있다는 버핏의 시각을 소개. 버핏의 투자 철학: 버핏은 거시 큰 흐름(Big picture)을 예측하지 않으며, 기술주는 향후 5년 이익을 예측할 수 없어 투자하지 않는다고 설명. 다만 구글 비즈니스 모델은 이해한다고 언급했고, 이 발언 이후 가치투자자들이 구글을 매수했다고 함. 가치평가 방법: 기업의 주식이 아니라 기업 자체를 산다는 관점에서 내재가치(intrinsic value)를 산정하며, 정확한 소수점보다 범위로 추정하면 충분하다고 강조. 향후 10년 이익 추정으로 내재가치를 계산하고, 이후 재무제표 변화가 있을 때만 갱신. 매수 전략: 내재가치 1원 기준 안전마진 20%면 0.8원 이하에서만 매수. 시장(미스터 마켓)의 조울증적 가격 변동을 활용해 저평가 구간에서 매수하고, 매매 타이밍 판단이나 단기 트레이딩은 배제하며 영구 보유를 전제. 출연자 전망: 거시 노이즈 무시, 장기 보유 및 기업 분석 중심의 접근을 권장. 개별 종목에 대한 가격 목표치 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
how do you invest how do you actually play in these times remember Nate extraordinary developments um we are now unpacking what happened there and I've done a lot of work on that and I'm sure lots of you guys have done lots of reading on it as well but when you wake up one morning and there is a change which has taken banking shares that you might have invested in uh 20% in 2 days 20% that's what what happened if you were in in bonds you would have lost collectively 10% of your value of the bonds which are supposed to be safe of as houses this is the the uh reflection of a developing market and a developing Market was where politics Trump's economics so what do you do in a situation like that well a lot of the uh advice in this book and I've written it in a in a very easy readable manner I TR not to um to complicate anything Buffett is a Homespun wisdom kind of guy uh when you go to Omaha and I urge you to do this at least once in your lifetime make the trip go and listen to Warren who's now 85 and Charlie who's now 92 and they hold forth for 5 and a half hours answering questions spontaneously posed by people in the audience and people who sent emails this year for the first time ever that they are webcasting it so we can all watch it and as a result I'm not going I have a young business and 150,000 Rand and going to Omaha and back you need sponsorship and unfortunately we didn't get sponsorship this year so I'll be uh read watching the webcast with you and I strongly recommend that you do that because Buffett talks in terms that we can all understand and it's like the great professors I remember you you were very highly rated in one of those recent surveys because people understand what you talk about I'll I'll give you what I think is a quaint recollection is the launch of that radio station 20 years back um and I would uh very often record that uh if I was out in meetings into the early evening uh and so on and those were the days of specialized Outsourcing MH um computer configuration Holdings yes Amalgamated appliances maxtech House of Busby I make that point because I think what you bring to this conversation is this incredible ingredient called experience and that's what Buffett displays is these acres and Acres of experience and one of the things that I hear you expressing in this experience is that my intro which says inflation is 7% producer price inflation is 9.1 uh the interest rate is up 75 basis points your suggestion might be that this is noise not news totally and that's what Buffett tells us he says he can't and he's clever I mean this is a real real smart guy the the smartest man you're probably ever going to read uh any of his work is is Charlie manga the guy his his partner um but Buffett is is right there and I think the IQs are off the charts but where people get it wrong is Buffett says I don't invest in technology because I don't understand it he doesn't mean he doesn't understand it like I don't understand uh how to dig a a hole for a stadium he means I don't know where the earnings for the next 5 years are going to come or what they're going to be his best p is is Bill Gates who he plays uh online Bridge with every week and uh bills on his board and so is uh there's the former COO of Yahoo is on his board as well and he still doesn't buy technology ship is but what he did say a couple of years ago was that he can't poke a hole in Google's business model doesn't know well enough what Google's going to earn in the next 5 years but he can't poke a hole in the business model and as a consequence of that value investors worldwide went and bought Google just because Buffett said so so he he says forget the noise he he says I can't call the big picture I can't call the big trends what I do is invest and this is this is really what I've the basic uh story of of of my book and it it really takes you u in very easy fashion about Buffett's life and and how he has applied his investment knowledge but the basic thing is how do you work intrinsic value for a for a company you're buying the company not the share so work out the intrinsic Valley and it's not difficult he says don't try and get to the second decimal point in fact you have a range for your intrinsic value the way he puts it is that if some somebody walks through the door and if they you if they weigh £310 or 320 you don't need to find out exactly to know they fat and it's a similar situation with investing so you get the intrinsic value and that changes rarely that changes as you get the new financials in there you're doing your estimate on what you think that the company can earn over the next 10 years and work that into your numbers you it's it's pretty easy and I've I've gone through uh in in uh in some detail on how to work that out because that's where you begin and once you have an intrinsic value of a company you then find what the margin of safety is that you would be comfortable with so let's just say the intrinsic value is one Rand your margin of safety would be 20% so you don't buy those shares unless they 80 cents and then you let Mr Market who's the um manic depressive who doesn't have any um medication and let him get Manic and depressive but primarily you wait for him to get into one of his depressive phases so that the share price gets below your margin of safety that's when you buy and the period you hold on for is forever so there's no trading there's no there's no punting there's no watching the share price and oh that's a good price that's a bad price it's doing your homework
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