저자: ArcaneBear · 외국인
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결론: 글로벌 경기침체가 시작되면 비트코인에 불리하며 1,000달러까지 하락 가능성이 있다고 봄. 글로벌 경기침체 우려: 2008년 이후 근본 문제가 해결되지 않았고 양적완화로 시장이 인위적으로 부풀려졌다고 주장. 12월 전 세계 증시가 대공황 이후 최악의 12월 흐름이라고 언급. S&P 500 기술적 분석: 월봉 차트에서 하락세가 뚜렷하며 200일 이동평균선까지 큰 하락 여지가 있다고 봄. 2001년·2008년 고점과 유사하다는 관측. VIX 변동성 지수 급등 언급. 독일 DAX·닛케이: 독일 DAX에서 2001·2008년 폭락과 유사한 대형 음봉이 나타나 세계 경기에 나쁜 신호라고 평가. 닛케이는 장기 하락세로 기관 포트폴리오에 우려 요인이라고 언급. 비트코인 전망: 경기침체 시 사람들이 법정화폐 등 안전자산으로 몰려 비트코인에는 호재가 아니라고 주장. 1,000달러 하락 가능성은 높다고 봄. 기관 자금은 비트코인이 1,000달러 부근까지 내려야 들어올 것이라는 견해를 소개(Backed 비트코인 선물 출시 지연 관련 언급). 매매 전략: 투자 권유가 아니라는 전제 하에, 1,000~3,800달러 구간을 분할 매수 진입 포인트로 제시. 예시로 $10,000 중 약 $2,000 매수 후 나머지 현금을 하락 시 진입용으로 대기하는 방식 언급. 장기 견해: 법정화폐 체제가 붕괴되면 비트코인의 진정한 가치가 드러날 것이라며 향후 10년간 매우 긍정적으로 봄. 자신은 90달러에 매수했고 장기 보유 의사 표명. 리스크: 경기침체가 확인되면 거의 모든 자산이 타격을 받을 수 있으며, 금도 최근 하락했다고 언급. 본인도 '반대가 맞을 수 있다'며 불확실성 인정.
다듬은 글
okay some of you have been asked me where I was what I've been doing I've been taking some time off I'm working on well I'm still working on the same things I've been working on the background as always but I wanted to touch base on some of my thoughts about the potential global economic recession that's starting to take place something that we had anticipated since 2008 again they never solved the problems in 2008 and in fact all they did was exacerbate the dilemma by printing more money which I guess superficially inflated the markets all around the world since kind of what money printing in quantitative quantitative easing is is just money printing that they came up with some technical terms of caliber we're doing quantitative easing you mean you're printing more and money and shoving it into the markets artificially propping up businesses that shouldn't in any way shape or form be successful making them look than successful anyways a very difficult idea here but what I wanted to get into was some of the I guess the ideas and conversations I've been having in the background about whether or not a recession would be a good thing for Bitcoin or not now it's kind of one of those contra does very difficult to think about processes first off a global economic recession like the one we saw in 2008 where we never were allowed to hit the bottom could be disastrous for many people around the world this means that people are likely going to be getting laid off from their jobs they're gonna be moving any assets out into safe havens like Fiat and that's generally where the odd question came from isn't okay well most of the people on the planet don't know anything about Bitcoin yet or blockchain so they're likely going to be moving into the world of fiat now I don't think that that's a good idea Fiat garbage obviously we we know that but the majority of the population still doesn't trust or understand what Bitcoin and blockchain does now it's the solution it's the medicine that the problems in the Fiat but people also haven't noticed that there are even problems in the fiat world yet they've given sway to the government propaganda that the Federal Reserve is in control just to tuck your nighty nights and you're gonna be fine because we're gonna Rey interest rates now this has been part of their story for a long time so if you dive into some of the market sentiments here you see that the market is on pace for its worst December since the Great Depression now if you jump into the S&P 500 as well this becomes even more noticeable I think when you're looking at let's K here's the 15-minute chart as you can see now but let's go to the one-month chart it starts to become a little bit more apparent right ah yes this ridiculous chart here look at that red candlestick heading right down towards your exponential moving average do I have a 200 a on here no I don't have a tuner day on here yet I will add that right right now moving average there we go it's on the 9 day clothes right now I change the settings of that to 200 and go like this there we go so we've got a long ways down to go to the 200-day moving average which you would find very closely related to release the two previous tops of 2001 and 2008 now the first exponential moving average we have here is around 231 if we break this which I do suspect we will on the end so I'm right now I'm looking at the S&P 500 this is standard Poor's 500 top companies to mix of commodities and bonds stocks as well he also had the footsie 100 which is the 100 top companies in the Great Britain area I believe someone double check me if I'm wrong there but the belief is Great Britain so going back from 2016 with no previous data before that I'm not sure why that is perhaps I'm looking at the wrong foot see now what we'll double check on that and then you have the VIX this is the volatility indicator and it's had a massive spike up here in the beginning of the year so in 2008 look at the gains that were made from the low 13 dollar level to the hundred dollar almost hundred dollar mark on some of the wicks again that volatility is starting to spike up to the previous highs of the Vicker the volatility index that we had before this is again related against the S&P 500 so the question becomes is this good for Bitcoin well there's a bunch of ways to try to look at an answer for this now I don't think that it is I don't because value is a privilege of those who are able to not just survive but thrive if the average person starts to have difficulties surviving are they going to be super excited about buying new assets no unlikely not is is our even institutional money is going to be interested about buying into new assets no but they do see that bitcoin is likely near its lows of which it could be again we have a lot of evidence to say that it could go to the thousand dollar range even the other day on the ice and backed podcast if you listen to it he specifically says that they don't believe institutional money to some degree is going to be looking at Bitcoin until they gets now down near the thousand dollar range so now you have the people that have been in the New York Stock Exchange for a very long time saying yeah thousand dollars so this is not a new sentiment here I would actually you can find that it's if you haven't yet joined the arcane bear telegram Channel it is posted in the links there below and also backed as far as I know delayed and see this it should come up as one of the first new news articles yes launch of backed Bitcoin futures market may get postponed again is back to laying the future of its Bitcoin futures platform again launch of backed future bitcoins exchange to be late yet again so when you look into this sentiment here these guys are having a difficult time getting the rules and regulations through with the SEC and the FTC the Federal Trade Commission I believe that was what it is so if you dive in here looks as okay was delayed by the company set originally from December to the 24th of in January now however the launch is likely being delayed again as the inter the Intercontinental exchange is not still yet received the approval from the US Commodity and Futures Trading or the CFTC so this may be a delay in the approval which will ultimately lead to the delay in the launch of back now everyone gets head-over-heels excited about this institution of my you thinking yeah this is gonna make us start a new bull market but when you're entering a global recession again you have then the Naik the Nikkei I don't know how to say some of these stupid things as the Nikkei Futures no just the Nikkei 225 I believe and it may have already been in a drop for quite some time so I'm not entirely sure here not yet the Nikkei has been in a corollary drop from for many years it couldn't even reach its original highs of the early nineteen nineties so not a great example but even this red candlestick here should be should be a large worry to most institutional investors because that's around a 10 to 12 percent drop in their a large-scale portfolios you can find the dax as well I believe it's the dax the German index going to be breaking here we go so as we start to enter a global recession here you have the the dax again to this very large red candle wick that looks very similar to the other economic crashes of 2001 and 2008 this is not a good sign for the world at large therefore well what does it do to Bitcoin everyone said well you know even a little bit of extra money running over to Bitcoin it's like Bitcoin is just as though is even more of a volatile asset than what most people are used to which is great for us who are crazy and love that volatility and who are invested in the future medicine but people are likely going to be running to Fiat I don't suspect this is good news for anybody Joseph Lubin came out and said hey we're at the bottom the future looks bright it's like no you're being an arrogant human being the future does not look bright for most of the people on the planet right now because this is gonna affect a lot of people just like in 2008 people were losing their homes they were losing their jobs that's not something to be excited about and during those times people go into survival mode so that's my sentiments I just wanted to share a little bit about that just to make a little video we'll get it we'll get in we'll do some TA I think later this evening when come back online but basically what I wanted to do here was just go over this I'll take a few guys your thoughts I'm heaven says PTC will not go to $1000 I see any time you say something like that it will not happen it's just more likely that it will happen I remember a few months ago people on the channel we're like oh Bitcoin will never go below $6,000 when we said 36 to 40 200 was the downside and the upside was a switch above the 7500 range which we never saw again all we saw with the downsides all they were bringing up all these ideas like it costs too much to mine it and you know it'll never happen institutional money's coming in yeah well guess what it doesn't make a difference the world is entering an economic recession and that is not good for any asset class even gold went down the last week why is that people are running into fiat they're running into the traditionally known stable points so I do believe $1,000 has a lot of room for credibility and there's a lot of room for that being extremely possible although I myself as a risk-adjusted manager of my own assets I look for easy entry points you know anywhere between you take you take gaps let's say you have $10,000 this is not a financial investment advice in any way shape or form but let's say you have $10,000 you want to invest in Bitcoin you think that there's a possibility that goes between $1,000 and $3,800 those are all good entry points so what you do is you go maybe I'm going to buy around $2,000 here $2,000 here and save 2 & 2 & 2 here for those other entry points and you wait and if they don't hit we're gonna find a bottom and we're gonna sit there for a while because if we are correct and we're entering a global economic recession then you do not want to have your hands in almost any asset anyways a period is probably only a few of us who remember the 2008 crash and we're invested in that space it is not something to be easily it's not easy to throw it aside to think that the negative sentiments will bleed over into our markets so I could see this lining up again I have not invested in being right or wrong here we're just looking at possibilities so I'm never going to be the person that say things will never happen Bitcoin could go to zero dollars if a meteorite hits the planet and destroys everything so why would I ever say that that's not a possibility things possible in the world of infinite possibilities in this universe that we live in I do not say things are impossible so I would very very highly recommend that you do the same thing that's not financial advice that's just a good thing to think in life in general because nothing is impossible if you set your mind to it so hey who knows maybe if we set our minds to it a bit going to go to a million dollars but probably not today I do have a very very very very foolish outlook on Bitcoin over the next ten years it's one of the reasons why I bought at $90 is because I think this is not done this story is not over and until the fiat currency start to collapse Bitcoin will likely not find its true value as a replacement for the failing debt infrastructure that we have today now I do agree with Tyler Jenks there are very few options that we can choose here that are for the benefit of everyone so let's ladies and gentlemen please choose wisely we are getting to a zero hour and it's important that we all focus and learn to build as a community together it was a - with the RT bear I will be back online later this evening I do not think that the global stock market crashing is good for Bitcoin I do not believe much of that money will run over into this space because I do not believe that we have found the bottom yet although hey it could be wrong great that's awesome it doesn't bother me either I still own my initial assets everything I but I'm out of the market in terms of what I use to build my businesses in terms to live my life for the next year aside from original asset investments it's like okay well if I bought at 90 bucks and we're gonna sell now no I just gonna keep it and sit on it it was there it was always a speculative asset for me I'm not gonna change that I would never tell you that I love my speculative assets they've done me very well anyways I'm going to visit a csr group today gonna be a lot of fun thank you guys for all sharing all your time give us those thumbs up hopefully we will back on later this evening to go over more the charts I mean I and I also want to apologize because I'm sure some of you you like I do we don't only talk about Bitcoin and blockchain here have we've had physicists PhDs in biology come on the show I like to do anything creative anything that stimulates my mind and brings more learning in that process of creativity so the other day we did a video about going to a hippie music festival and like we've made poetry overtop of the video and this is what you get here at the archein bear there's no real niche directive but we do believe that there is that invisible thread that weaves us all together so for those of you that are the tapestries that have been pulled in by this invisible thread thank you very much for joining us it means the world to me during the telegram channel where the world of people are significantly more more valuable than I as my single self so thank you guys all for joining us and that continue to join us we'll see you on
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