저자: AurélienAmacker · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 '경제 기계' 개념을 소개하며, 신용 확대 → 자산 버블 → 디레버리징(디플레이션) 순환이 반복된다고 설명. 중앙은행의 저금리와 양적완화가 통화량과 자산 가격을 밀어올려 빈부 격차를 키운다고 주장. 거론된 핵심 근거: 미 연준 기준금리 거의 0% 장기 유지, 중앙은행 양적완화 규모 약 50조 달러 언급, 프랑스 부동산 10년간 약 150% 상승. 부동산 수익률은 장기적으로 주식시장보다 낮다는 실러(Irrational Exuberance) 인용. 화자 본인은 부동산 4채 보유와 온라인 사업 투자를 언급하며 분산투자를 권장. 특정 종목·지수·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 매수·매도 권고는 없음. 주식·코인·금리·환율에 대한 1~3개월 전망 발언 부재.
다듬은 글
Hey entrepreneurs, this is Aurélien Macaire, internet entrepreneur since 2010, founder of systeme.io, the number 1 solution for selling online. To try it for free, I've included the link below this video to try systeme.io for free for 14 days. I'm making a short video on a slightly different topic. I would like to talk to you a little bit about economics, about personal finance.
So don't leave because you'll see it's extremely important. I read a book called Big Big Debt Crisis, it's by Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio, who is he? He is actually the manager of an investment fund called Bridgewater. It is the largest investment fund in the world. You should know that Ray Dalio, I think it was uh last year he earned 1 billion dollars.
Well, he's a guy, he's almost 70 years old, uh, well , I think a billion more or less doesn't change his life. He is quite well known because he published a book called Principles where he talks a little bit about principles for success in life, economics and so on. He published a series, or rather a video, which you absolutely must see, I insist on it, take it, I think it lasts 20 or 30 minutes, I will give you the link.
It's actually about how the economic machine works. This is absolutely essential, you absolutely must have seen this video, they translated it into I don't know how many languages, I'll give you the link in French. ? Because it allows you to understand, in fact, the mechanisms of the economy. Big Debt Crisis is a huge book, uh, I think it took me a month to read it, it's really long.
In fact, he explains a little bit about the mechanisms of the economy. Hi girls. ! And in fact, he explains the mechanisms of the economy; it's always the same cycles. We are actually in a period of growth where what is happening is that there is an increase in credit, so more credit is being allocated, people are getting more credit, which means that they are buying more, which is causing prices to rise.
So this is a growth that is quite healthy, quite normal. And what happens is that at some point we actually move into a bubble phenomenon, meaning that, well, growth leads to growth. Because there is growth, asset prices are rising, and people think that asset prices will continue to rise. As a result, people are taking on even more debt and taking more risks because you need to know that the higher your debt ratio, the higher your risk.
And what happens is that after a while, well, the bubble bursts, people are too indebted, there has been too much credit, it can't increase anymore, we go on the opposite path, that is to say, deflation, a fall in the level of assets and obviously in these cases, well, what happens ? There are companies that are eating their shirts, there are people who are eating their shirts, who are losing their money, and there you have it, it's an economic crisis.
What 's interesting is that he goes further, explaining that governments actually have tools that will allow them to take control of these crises. I believe there are seven or nine levers that governments can use. There are some you know, there are some you've heard of, and there are some you don't know.
So it's important to be aware of these things that have a direct impact on asset prices, on your life, and what kills me personally is that there are a lot of experts in personal finance and so on, they almost never talk about this even though it has a direct impact, so it's extremely important to be aware of this to know where we are and better anticipate what will happen.
So the levers available to governments then are, roughly speaking, to print money. I don't know if you know, but in the United States, the Fed, the American central bank, lowered interest rates to almost 0 %, which was unprecedented and lasted for several years, which is a rather abnormal situation.
Lowering interest rates encourages people to invest because, in fact, money, since money no longer earns money, people prefer to exchange their money to buy assets, so in fact, it boosts the economy, it boosts inflation, it avoids, in fact, that deflation where the price of assets falls. And then there are other levers and there is one that you have certainly heard of but what is impressive is that it is still a mechanism which is quite crazy, it is quantitative easing in English so it is quantitative easing so it is a name that is enough to make you sleep outside.
In fact, what is it about because it is still important, you must have heard about it, there is the American central bank which did it, there is the European central bank which also did it after the 2012 crisis where in fact it is the central bank if you want it buys assets from banks, different companies, a lot from banks, assets in fact which are a bit moldy, which are at risk.
What's funny is that the central bank buys its assets with money it doesn't actually have, money it creates. And that's why banks don't like to admit it, central banks, but it's about printing money . So you've certainly heard this expression before. And what's important is that I believe that because of the amounts which are quite, well, I don't know, I don't know what the word is for it, but it's in the order of, I think, for the American central bank in recent years, I think it's in the order of 50 trillion, so it's 50 thousand billion dollars.
So it's still some pretty crazy stuff. Why does this concern you? This concerns you because the thing is that all these mechanisms tend, as you will have understood, to increase the mass of liquidity, the mass of money in circulation, which tends to increase, therefore it tends to devalue the currency and it tends to increase the value of assets.
What does that mean? Uh, and that's what we've been seeing for years, there are rises in populism in, uh, well, everywhere, everywhere in the world. What's actually happening is that it increases the gap, and Ray Dalio talks about this in his book, it increases the gap between those who have and those who don't.
If you are an employee and you only have the income from your work, well you will have understood that you are in trouble because well your salary may increase by 1%, 2%, 3% per year, 5% if you are lucky, maybe it increases very little, less than 1% and so in fact you have the price of assets which increases and you are in trouble because it is becoming more and more difficult to buy, to invest, to buy in real estate, to buy for your residence.
So, all this to say that I really recommend you go and take a look at all of this because it's really interesting. At a minimum, because Big Debt Crisis is, let me tell you, a real tome, it's in English, so there you go, anyway, if you want to go faster and you speak English you just have to listen to Ray Dalio's interviews since, as he's releasing his book, he's obviously doing lots of interviews.
He always explains the same thing, it's not very complicated, it's the different, uh, different stages of the cycle. If you're really, really keen, read the book, it's very good, but honestly, just with the interviews, I think you'll have understood the essentials. And above all, go watch this video How the economic machine works, because it lasts 20 or 30 minutes, and there you go, that's what I just explained to you, but obviously in more detail, and it's absolutely essential if you want to invest.
You can see that some rather strange things are happening; real estate in France has increased, I believe, by 150% in 10 years. It's obvious that an asset class that increases at that rate, which isn't something natural, isn't something that can last forever. So, when I hear real estate experts saying "Well, real estate, uh, it's increasing faster than everything else." uh, I want to tell you to respect yourself, what, it's not possible, actually.
That's not possible. And if you look, if you read Rational Exuberance by Robert Shiller, who is a Nobel Prize winner in economics and which is a very, very well- known book, and these are not books that date from last year, well, Ray Dalio, that one, yes, but well, Ray Dalio, he has been doing this for uh 50 years, but uh Irrational Exuberance, it is a book that was published, I think, in 99 or 2000, 2000, and which has been reissued, and it is still even more true, so it is relevant.
And he explains that in fact, there is a study which shows that over 100 years, uh the profitability uh of real estate is lower than that of the stock market, for example. So, these are things that you need to know. Me, I love real estate, I have uh four properties, and uh I find it really great, it's quite easy to take advantage of a market anomaly, you can make money, there's the leverage effect of the bank, it's really good, but you have to be careful, that doesn't mean you shouldn't invest, on the contrary, you have to invest, because precisely, if we have this mechanism of devaluation of money and increase in the prices of assets, uh artificial or not, well it's better uh it's better to get on board and invest, because even if it's difficult, it allows you to have a property that will appreciate.
The solution in the end, well, it's always the same in investing, it's about diversifying, so it's not about investing everything in real estate, it's not about investing nothing at all and keeping everything in cash, it's about diversifying, it's about buying a little real estate, it's about buying a little stock, and so on and so forth .
So, that's the subject of another video, uh, I think you've already heard about diversification, it's something interesting. I also invest a lot in my online business. So there you have it, I'm finishing this video. I've included the link below this video. If you liked this video, click " like". If you want more videos, here you go, subscribe to my YouTube channel and uh, well, leave me a comment below this video. Ciao.
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