"Buying at The Bottom Makes Me Uncomfortable" - Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

투자는 대중의 공포·낙관 심리와 반대로 가야 한다. 극단적 공포가 가격을 내재가치 이하로 낮추므로 그때 매수 기회가 크다. 반대로 모두가 좋아하는 자산은 고평가되기 쉽다. AI가 세상을 바꿀 것은 확실하지만, 핵심은 어떻게·언제·어떤 영향·누가 이득을 보는지다. 2008년 9월 리먼 직후를 예로 든 역발상 투자 원칙을 강조한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. One of the most popular discussion topics today is AI and most people think AI is going to change the world. I'm confident that AI will change the world. That's not the question. The question is how, when, with what impact, who will benefit? You always talk about the how good investing often feels uncomfortable.

02. When So, in fact, comfort and good investing, they don't typically coexist. Can you talk about that dynamic from from your perspective? Well, Albert, what you're asking about leads to a great uh example of what I call second-level thinking. September 19th of '08, a couple days after the Lehman bankruptcy, was certainly one of the most uncertain days in my 80 almost 80 years.

03. Uh the the only thing comparable was the the low point of the pandemic in March of 2020 when when the world was equally uncertain and when I also wrote a memo entitled Nobody Knows. That's two. I recycled that that uh title. Yes. So, the question is not is the future foreseeable. Of course, we think it never is perfectly foreseeable and sometimes even less than at other times.

04. But, when people embody the feeling that you described of hopelessness and, you know, abject terror with the possibility that the financial sector will melt down, their negativity tends to make prices low relative to intrinsic value. And it's really the relationship between price and intrinsic value that we want to key on.

05. And it's it's obvious that when when people love things and feel good and are optimistic and are happy and feel positive about the future, prices are probably high. When prices are high, prospective returns are low and risk is high. So, when they feel the worst about the environment, that's probably the moment when the price is as low as it can be relative to intrinsic value, meaning that prospective returns are high and risk is low.

06. And and you know, one of the ways I put it is that the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk. So, one of the safest things in the world is the belief that risk is everywhere because it it it puts prices so low that risk is shall we say minimal. Now, let's talk about discomfort.

07. If you committed to spend money, as we did, on September 19th, and you're not uncomfortable, there's something wrong with you. It's only human to feel uncomfortable when you're staring into the abyss. But, we have to do it anyway. And in fact, it's more important to do it that day than on the day we feel great.

08. Uh we have to ma- master the courage to do our jobs. What what should make it easier for us, if it can be made easier, is the confidence to know that as we were on September 19th, that we're the only person in the world who will buy, and everybody else wants to sell, and isn't that the perfect opportunity for the buyer?

09. If it an investment that you make, it feels easy or Right. universally accepted, what should that be telling about the price, right? When people are terrified, prices are at a minimum relative to intrinsic value. It's all a buy. When prices when people are euphoric, carefree, prices are at a maximum relative to intrinsic value, and you have to be very cautious.

10. And we have to if you embody the same emotion, or we may say psychology or Mhm. investor sentiment as everybody else, then you will fluctuate along with them. You'll You'll buy at the top of a bubble just like they do. That's how bubble tops get formed. You'll sell at the bottom of a cry of a crash.

11. That's how bottoms get formed. And you'll do no better than the average investor. Our goal is to do better than the average investor. So, we have to diverge from the average investor. In fact, optimally, we have to uh behave as contrarians. Buffett says most things best. He says, uh "The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs." So, uh if you [clears throat] think about it, it's it's nothing short of an oxymoron to say, you know, "This is a bargain-price security that everybody loves." When everybody loves something, it it's unlikely that it'll be on the bargain counter.

12. Uh and so, if you're thinking about investing it, you have to be leery of the elevated nature of investor psychology. Uh one of the most popular discussion topics today is AI, and most people think AI is going to change the world. I'm confident that AI will change the world. That's not the question. The question is how, when, with what impact, who will benefit?