WHAT TO DO IN THIS MARKET? | Howard Marks | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

시장 낙관론이 우위에 있으며 최근 39개월간 강세장이 이어져 가격이 내재가치 대비 높을 가능성이 있다. 향후 수익률은 제한적이고 불확실성·위험이 높아 공격적 태도보다 방어력 강화가 적절하다. 성장 요인(전후 회복, 기술·경영 발전, 세계화)은 앞으로 둔화될 수 있다. 수익 극대화와 예측 가능성 사이의 트레이드오프를 강조하며, 예측 가능한 결과를 중시하고 투기적 기술·지적재산 의존을 피하는 가치투자 접근을 제시한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I think it's important to note in this market optimism is in the ascendancy. I think that the main thing that changes from week to week or month to month or even year to year is the level of optimism versus pessimism. You have to invest carefully. Maybe this isn't the time for sheer aggression rather an upgrading of defensiveness.

02. We should know where we stand. And I believe that where we stand has a lot to do with what's coming up. But uh so where are we today? Um I think the most important thing to bear in mind if you're interested in uh managing your portfolio with short-term or intermediate-term considerations. You can ignore this stuff if you say I'm only interested in 20 years.

03. But if you care about the short to intermediate term, short is uh 1 year or 2, intermediate is let's say uh 2 to 3 or 5. I think it's important to note that in this market optimism is in the ascendancy. I think that the main thing that changes from week to week or month to month or even year to year is the level of optimism versus pessimism.

04. When optimism is riding high, prices are probably high relative to intrinsic value. Prospective returns are modest, uncertainty, risk is relatively high. And that means we should behave in a more cautious manner. When pessimism rules, prices are probably very low relative to intrinsic value. So that means we should turn highly aggressive.

05. That's the main dimension on which I think about managing money in the short to medium term. Is it optimism or pessimism? Should we be aggressive or defensive? And I think that uh you know, uh optimism after after a very rough 2022, optimism took over in the fourth quarter. And as a consequence for the last 39 months, the markets have been on a tear.

06. The period uh 2345 is for the S&P 500 is, I think, the seventh best 3-year period out of the last 100. Seventh out of 100. And that tells us what's going on. It has implications for what's coming next. So, I think that investors should bear in mind that today's market is dominated by optimism. That the world is unpredictable as usual or maybe more so.

07. Mhm. And some of the rapid growth that we saw in the last half of the 20th century, because of recovery from World War II, technological and managerial advances, um uh globalization, etc. Uh some of those growth factors are probably going to be less in the years ahead. So, if you if you sum up prevalent optimism, unpredictability, and maybe moderate growth, I think you would say uh you have to invest carefully.

08. And maybe uh maybe this isn't the time for sheer aggression. Rather for uh an upgrading of defensiveness. One essential trade-off in investing is between offense and defense. Mhm. And the other one is between uh uh return maximization and enhancing uh predictability. And usually the things you do to maximize uh uh return, you sacrifice on predictability.

09. The things you do to maximize reliable outcomes, you have to give on maximization of outcomes. Mhm. That's the trade-off. It's important to note that just because we don't know what the future holds doesn't mean we shouldn't take action. But I think we should emphasize uh uh events where the returns are uh more predictable and uh maybe deemphasize uh maximization of return.

10. And um that's what investment selection is all about. And uh everybody wants uh high returns uh predictably. It's just that they're elusive and you generally have to uh decide which of those factors to emphasize. And um you know, uh the value investor, which is what I think Brookfield and Oaktree really are, uh emphasizes investments where the predictability comes from a superior understanding of what the future holds.

11. And uh uh specialization in a few areas, uh uh non-reliance on shall we say speculative technologies and intellectual property and things like that. Uh I think that those are the important elements in in investment selection today.