저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
그린블랫은 담배꽁초식 투자는 의도적으로 하지 않으며, 좋은 사업을 장기 보유해 복리 효과를 누리는 것이 핵심이라고 말한다. 안전마진은 싸게 사는 것에서 나오며, 좋은 사업의 자산 수익률을 보는 것이 중요하다. 본인은 매수는 잘했지만 매도를 너무 일찍 하는 실수를 자주 했다고 회고한다. 큰 도전은 손실과 실수를 인정하는 것이며, 실수에서 배우는 자세가 중요하다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
cigar butt investing and regular investing. I don't cigar butt invest on purpose. If you did, it should be a trading strategy, not an a long-term investment strategy. Other words, time is friend of a good business and the enemy of a bad business. You know, if you buy something that today is worth $5, you think it's worth $10, but that $10 is going down to $8 maybe over time.
That margin of safety may be less than paying $6 for something that's trading at $10 that's grown at 12, 14, 15. The second one may have a larger margin of safety. So, I'm I'm not a good trader. so I wouldn't ask me. Always good at buying. When it was available at a good price, I would usually just take my position.
Never was good at selling. Uh but I was really good at buying. Uh you know, as a quote unquote value investor, I'm kind of cheap. And so I would say my general mistake is selling too soon, particularly for good businesses. As far as cigar butt investing and regular investing, I don't cigar butt invest on purpose.
if you did, it should be a trading strategy, not an a long-term investment strategy. Uh, in other words, time is the friend of a good business and the enemy of a bad business. And so, I I like the margin of safety of that the uh, you know, if you buy something that today is worth $5 and you think it's I mean that you pay $5 and you think it's worth $10, but that $10 is going down to $8 maybe over time.
that margin of safety may be less than paying $6 for something that's trading at uh $10 that's grown at 12, 14, 15. The second one may have a larger margin of safety. So feel more comfortable in those lessons learned over time. And you know, hence looking at returns on tangible capital, you know, are we in a good business or not?
Um very hard to make it out alive in a bad business. Um and investing is owning a business. Do you want to own for some period of time? It's very hard to trade. So ideally you want to have a really good business that compound that can compound over time and I think the more I invest the more I learn that lesson uh that you want to stay in what you think are good business it doesn't mean you'll be right this gentleman right here.
Hi thank you so much for coming in. Uh I was wondering if you could speak to maybe the biggest challenge that you've encountered in your entire career and how that has really I guess what the lesson was that you've learned that shaped you both as an individual and as an investment professional. Yeah, it's tough to know.
You know, uh Malcolm uh Gladwell wrote a book, I forgot which uh one, but uh he opens up he opens it with that most of the hockey players in the NHL were born in January, February, and March. because they were born at the right time because everyone's uh organized by uh their age based on their calendar year when they were born.
So it really matters when you're six whether you were born earlier in the year or later in the year, you know, how big you are. And so they they funneled the January, February, and March births into the special programs because they're bigger and and faster and everything else. And so, uh, a disproportionate amount of professional hockey players are born in January, February, and March because that's so they were born at the right time.
And I came out of, uh, business school in, uh, 1980 and I went to one year law school and dropped out of that, thank God. Uh, and in the beginning of the biggest bull market ever. Uh, so I haven't had that many investment challenges. Market's gone, you know, straight up. So I would say uh I hope my luck continues uh uh and that it continues for you as well uh because it's it's been very good uh since then.
Uh biggest challenges are really just losing money and uh realizing you made a mistake uh rather than you had a good process and it uh didn't work out. I'm fine with that. The biggest I have is that we do make mistakes and we lose money as a result. And it wasn't because our process was right, but we had bad luck.
It was literally we made a mistake. And sometimes we make the same mistake over and over again. It just looked different at the time we made it. You know, we try not to make the same mistake over and over again, but often it it it really is and we get too enthusiastic about something or we miss something that's that's that's really clear.
so or took too big a position in something. And so uh continue to make that mistake. But once again, if you're not willing to take some risks, uh you're not going to make uh the money. And and I I think one of the wisest things I heard uh from an an older gentleman and he you know, I was complaining about you know, boy, what bad luck I had on this investment.
And he said, "Well, have you had any investments where uh you got lucky, you know, and you didn't really deserve it?" And I said, "Yeah." He said, "Does it happen a lot?" He said, "Yeah, it happens a lot." And so, just, you know, you have to weigh the good with the bad is all I'm saying. And and you're going to make mistakes.
And even when you don't make mistakes, you're going to lose money. And you just have to, I think, be forwardlooking and learn, you know, whatever mistakes you make, learn from them. And be forward looking. How am I going to apply them? And, you know, do as I say, not as I do. But in the rest of my life, I try to do that as well.
I try to say, "Yeah, I really blew that. What did I learn from it? How can I do better?" I think we all know that's the healthy attitude to do things. It's harder to do. So, don't think I always do that, but that is good advice.
Comments 0