저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 장기 고점을 형성 중이며 엔비디아·테슬라 등 대중 인기주가 약 70% 하락할 수 있다고 주장. 시장 과열과 낙관론이 높고 기술적 지표·글로벌 경기 전망이 좋지 않다고 봄. 금리가 긴축되면 자산 디플레이션이 올 수 있고 사모펀드 등에 문제가 생길 수 있다는 견해. 가계의 약 70%는 실질 생활수준이 악화되어 경기침체 상태이며, 상업용 부동산은 이미 붕괴했다고 언급. 유동성은 아직 충분하다고 평가.
다듬은 글
so I I think we're going to go down from here and uh I suppose that the most popular stocks like Nidia and Tesla and so forth which are widely held by the public that these stocks will go down substantially I mean uh in the order of 70% well uh there similarities and differences the similarity is uh that the market is euphoric people are very optimistic and that's usually not the best time to buy when everybody is optimistic I would argue that the best buying opportunities occur when uh participants are very negative say you look at Hong Kong until say three four years ago people were always very optimistic about China and Hong Kong and now uh you can't read anything positive about Hong Kong and China and these markets have come down a lot and are now reasonably valued I mean in Hong Kong you can buy property stocks at a huge discount to their asset value now I'm not disputing that the asset Val value can't go down it will go down but not that much much because the discounts on the net asset value are frequently 70 80% I think if you want to find good value you have to buy assets that are neglected and overlooked and if you want to buy expensive assets you buy assets that are in the Limelight say The Magnificent Seven at the present time or the f and F related stocks in America well I personally I think that the markets uh are forming a long-term top the first top area was in 2021 I mean officially the market peaked out in January 2022 and then proceeded to go down about 20% but a lot of stocks had peaked out in early 2021 like the spcs and the the meme stocks the cap Capricorns and so forth so I I think we're going to go down from here and uh I suppose that the most popular stocks like Nidia and Tesla and so forth which are widely held by the public that these stocks will go down substantially I mean uh in the order of 70% well this is a very good question what is save in an inflated U asset bubble in other words we are today in an inflation that wasn't very pronounced uh in consumer prices over the last 40 years say 1980 to today but uh we had very powerful asset inflation so assets are very expensive whether that is uh residential real estate or paintings or Collectibles like Ferrari cars and so for and uh Fine Wines and whiskies and so for and stocks in general are high and all I think all that will be deflated massively in a asset deflationary period now exactly when that will occur I'm not sure but I think that monetary policies are now relatively in a difficult position because if they print money then Consumer Price inflation will accelerate and if Consumer Price inflation accelerates and interest rates will go up and a lot of assets are priced or have been priced for interest rates to go down or be at the very low level they haven't been priced for continuous relatively High interest rates I mean for me interest rates today are not high because in the' 70s they were always above 6% and went to over 20% 81 but uh relative to the last 15 years interest rates at the present time are relatively High they're low but they're relatively high so I think the system is going to be very vulnerable and I'm questioning what is safe because in an asset deflationary period everything comes down but obviously some things come down less than others and not an expert about private Equity because I invest uh nowadays mostly in liquid Securities in other words in the stock markets in the bond market in commodity markets where I can buy and sell I don't want to be in illiquid assets but uh it is clear to me that private Equity will have some problems I think this is a very difficult question to respond to because uh interest rates on bonds could be 10% and if inflation is uh 14% or 15% then uh interest rates are still negative in real terms in other words interest rates would be at 10% inflation at 15% so it would still pay for you to essentially borrow money because interest rates would be negative inflation adjusted so to answer your question the breaking point will be when money becomes tight and it hasn't become tight yet there's plenty of liquidity in the world and that's why you see these speculative excesses like uh massive moves in crypto currencies or massive moves in one day in some speculative stocks in the us evaluations are at a very high level and the technical picture is not particularly good nor is the global economic Outlook particularly good nor is the inflationary out look particularly good so and yet the public is more bullish than ever before in the last few years you understand we very very uh biased do it be long equities and that I question that uh the market can continue to go up at this level well there is a short-term View and long-term view I think the economy is in recession if it were properly measured and I measure it by say looking at fact finances of 70% of households 70% of households in America and in Europe I when I talk about America I talk essentially about the Western world are in recession because their cost of living has increased more and their uh salary salaries so uh the standards of living for most people are actually going down now they're not going down for wealthy people including myself who are asset holders because they last year asset prices still went up quite a lot especially say if you own Bitcoins or gold then you made a lot of money and uh that creates the weals inequality not the collapse the collapse of assets you usually rectifies some of the wealth inequality at the present time we have in some Western countries like America a record wealth inequality because the wealthy people have become thanks to expansion in monetary policies immensely rich and people who don't have assets the middle class and lower classes are not participating in the asset inflation you understand if you don't own a house you're not participating if you don't own um stocks you're not participating so this creates this wealth inequality and I'm saying that 70% of households if you look the statements of companies like Dollar General at the show essentially what the typical household does uh the typical household had to cut back even on life Necessities like food same in Germany by the way mhm and uh for wealthy people food is not an expenditure it's very small say if you earn $10 million a year how much you going to spend on food yeah you may spend a lot on drugs and so course but not on food the wealthy people actually eat less because they want to stay slim look uh every Mania every investment boom every investment bubble uh is accompanied by fraudulent practices and the more the bubble expands the more fraud and swindles and Shady Behavior uh proliferate now I don't know when but sometimes in maybe not the so distant future a massive fraud will be Rel revealed and when the massive fraud comes to the surface and into the Public's attention it can be a catalyst to a market decline I think there will be a lot of volatility and unexpected events and I would not bet that asset prices always go up because one asset class has clearly collapsed and that is commercial properties and until about 5 years ago people of Wells they all owned some office building somewhere and so forth because the rents were relatively attractive and Commercial properties gave the owners less headache and residential buildings but now they all collapse in value
Comments 0