저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 인플레이션은 여전히 심각하며 정부는 이를 해결하지 못한다는 피터 쉬프의 주장. 미국 증시: 7월 CPI 발표 후 주간 다우 약 1.27%, S&P500 약 3.25%, 나스닥 약 2.75% 상승했으나 쉬프는 인플레이션 승리 선언은 성급하다고 평가. 시장 랠리는 경제 악화 소식이 금리 인하 기대로 이어진 결과라고 설명. 물가 지표: 7월 PPI 헤드라인은 전월 대비 0.5% 하락했고 전년 대비 9.8%로 예상(10.3%)보다 낮았음. 서비스 물가 전년 대비 6.25%로 1982년 이후 최대. 주거비(shelter) 상승률은 1991년 이후 최대 수준이라고 언급. 경기 지표: 실업수당 청구 건수는 262,000건으로 시장 예상(26만)을 상회하며 부정적. 미시간대 소비자심리지수는 55.1로 예상(52.2)을 웃돌았으나 역사적으로 낮은 수준. 정책 비판: 인플레이션감축법(IRA)은 실제로는 인플레이션을 악화시킬 것이라고 비판. 제존법(Jones Act) 임시 면제 필요성 주장, 해운 규제가 물류비를 인위적으로 높이고 하와이·푸에르토리코 등 섬 지역에 부담을 준다고 설명. 출연자 전망: 인플레이션 완화는 일시적 착시이며 정부 지출 축소 없이는 근본 해결이 어렵다는 입장. 구체적 종목 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
the party continued on Wall Street this week in fact we capped off a winning week with a strong day on Friday the Dow Jones Rose 424 points that's about 1.27 on the week the Dow Jones Industrials Rose 2.9 the s p did even better Rising 1.73 on Friday three and a quarter percent on the week now the NASDAQ was up two percent on Friday but the rally maybe losing a little bit of steam especially on a relative basis because on the week the NASDAQ was up 2.75 percent which is pretty good but it was less than the s p and the catalyst is supposedly the victory over inflation in fact Joe Biden doing his premature victory dance I talked about that on my last podcast Biden should be flagged for taunting for trying to shove this hollow victory in the face of the American public but we did get some more not new not on inflation that followed the release of the CPI on Wednesday we got the PPI on Thursday and we got import export prices on Friday but even that made up number is the biggest year-over-year increase in shelter that the government has made up since 1991 and the burden of record high inflation has continued to push the limits for people across the country we spoke to a handful of Americans and it's not just food and shelter that had big gains during the zero percent inflation month of July take a look at services not only did overall Services prices rise again in the month of July but the year-over-year increase is now 6.25 percent that is the biggest year-over-year increase since 1982.
we actually got a point five percent drop in headline PPI nobody saw that one coming the consensus went from a low of zero or unchanged to a high of plus 0.4 and we actually made an even bigger move but in the opposite direction year over year the gain was expected to be 10.3 and that would have been a full percentage point below the 11.3 percent year-over-year rise in the prior month instead year of year prices only Rose by 9.8 percent again I'm saying only these are still big numbers but just not as big as expected again this number came out below the low end of the consensus range which went from a low of plus 10.1 to a high of plus 10.9 and if you look at the core stripping out food and energy that was better too it's only in comparison to even bigger numbers that these numbers don't look as bad and the markets are using this as an excuse to Rally of course the other reason that the market is rallying is because we have bad news on the economy and bad news on the economy is good news for stocks because investors care a lot more about interest rates and quantitative easing than they do about fundamental value situations or the underlying health of the economy in fact we got some more jobless claims news on Thursday as we always do and once again we had another week above 260 000.
the consensus was for 260. we came out at 262. the only good news I guess in the report is that the prior week's 260 000 job losses was revised down to just 248 000 but the news that really excited the markets came out on Friday and that was the consumer sentiment number out of the University of Michigan the monthly consumers end of an index from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute has dropped 6.9 percent this month and is now roughly back to where it was in March 2020.
the expectation was for 52.2 which is still not a lot of enthusiasm on the part of consumers and that would have been an improvement from the 51.5 from the month before remember we got got down to 50 which was the lowest we've ever been in the history of this survey so the fact that the expectation was for a rise to 52.2 was a pretty low bar and it was one that the number easily hurdled we ended up at 55.1 percent which was well above the consensus but still within the range although at the upper end moving from inflation to the politics of inflation Congress has now passed the inflation reduction act two inflation reduction Act passed the vote 220-207 not a single Republican voted for the bill they've been arguing it'll make inflation worse every Democrat backed it without a single Republican vote of course this is not really an act to reduce inflation if anything it will increase inflation the only reason that the title is the inflation reduction Act is because it's obvious to Democrats that inflation is a big problem and it's one that voters are very concerned about and so what they're trying to do is pretend that they are doing something about inflation by legislation maybe they did inflate their deductions because that may have been the only way to make ends meet you know even if they paid less taxes than they legally owe they still probably paid a lot more taxes than they morally should the government is already taking far too much money from a good portion of the American public especially the middle class small business owners they're getting killed with taxes and if they end up having to cheat a little bit to get by well I can understand that I'm not condoning it but it is what it is but two or three weeks ago there was talk that Biden was considering a temporary waiver of the Jones Act key and even the New York City Council have been calling on the federal government to waive the Jones act that act which is roughly a century old only allows the island to receive Goods on American ships not to permanently repeal it which would be even better but at least temporarily waive it given the fact that inflation was such a big problem and Biden was trying to do everything he could to lower costs for the American public now of course he doesn't want to cut government spending perish the thought and really reduce inflation but one thing Biden can do is get rid of some unnecessary government regulation that is artificially making costs so much higher particularly Transportation costs and what Biden could have done at least temporarily to ease the pain would be to temporarily repeal the Jones act which artificially increases the cost of transporting everything including energy throughout the United States so that would have been major relief for a lot of businesses and all of that would have been passed on to Consumers of course there are some parts of America that bear a disproportionate burden from the Jones act and those would be people living on islands like people living in Hawaii or people living in Puerto Rico and that's because let's say you've got a ship that's in route to California from Asia that ship can't stop in Hawaii along the way drop some stuff off and then continue on to California what it ends up doing is even though it has Goods that would be bound for Hawaii it doesn't stop in Hawaii it goes all the way through to California and then it unloads the goods that need to go to Hawaii in California now those goods have to be reloaded on a Jones act ship where you have an american-built ship with an American Crew and now they have to be shipped all the way back to Hawaii they're going to bribe any politician big bucks to preserve that perk and so that's what's happening that's why Trump wouldn't temporarily repeal it that's why Biden wouldn't do it because even a temporary repeal opens the door to something permanent and that's why this small group of people who derive an enormous benefit from the continuation of the Jones act will not even allow so much as a waiver even during emergency as was the case in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria but in addition to the Jones act the government tries these Shenanigans in other Industries too you know a lot of people might not be familiar with the rules for Airlines but just like foreign ships can't travel between two domestic ports foreign air carriers can't sell tickets between two U.S cities
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