저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 1970년대보다 더 나빠질 것이며 깊은 경기침체가 불가피하고, 달러 강세와 무관하게 금이 최후의 안전자산이 된다는 주장. [물가·달러] 6월 CPI 1.3% 상승(전년比 9.1%)과 생산자물가 예상 상회에 이어, 달러지수는 107→108로 올랐고 주간 고점 109.3까지 상승. 달러는 유럽·일본 대비 장기 고점권이며, 강달러 덕분에 수입물가 상승률(10.7%)이 억제되고 있다고 봄. [1970년대 비교] 당시 달러는 약 70% 가치 하락, 뉴저지 실업률 10%·전국 평균 8%였으나 미국은 무역흑자와 최대 채권국 지위를 가졌다고 설명. 현재 인플레이션(약 9%) 기준 실질금리는 -6.5%로 채권은 인플레 헤지가 되지 못함. [금·비트코인] 금은 이자가 없고 보관비가 드는 자산이지만, 현재 달러 선호가 금의 매력을 일시적으로 약화시킴. 비트코인이 한때 금 대신 선호됐듯 달러 선호도 결국 꺾이며, 그 때 금으로의 대이동이 올 것이고 금이 마지막 남는 안전자산이라고 주장. [경기침체·고용] 금리 인상으로 경기침체는 더 깊어지고 이미 시작된 해고는 가속될 전망. 6월 산업생산은 0.1% 증가 예상과 달리 0.2% 감소. [정책 비판] 연준 금리 5차례 인상에도 인플레는 고착. 기대인플레이션이 원인이라는 정부 논리는 책임 전가라고 비판. 800억 달러 국방지출·재정적자는 인플레 요인이며 민간투자를 구축(crowding out)한다고 주장. 연준의 대차대조표 축소 실패, 바이든의 연방계약 최저임금 15달러 법제화도 인플레 요인으로 지적. 공화당·민주당 모두 적자지출을 해왔다고 비판. [전망·리스크] 잘못된 일자리를 잃고 올바른 일자리로 가는 과정에서 침체는 불가피하며, 무고통 연착륙은 환상. 감세 역시 해법이 아니라고 봄. [투자 시사점] 금 중심 안전자산 선호 기조 유지. 달러 강세 지속 중이나 중기적으로 달러 약세·금 강세를 예상. 주식·개별종목 직접 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
the day after we got that hotter than expected 1.3 percent increase in June consumer prices 9.1 percent year over year the next day we also got a hotter than expected increase in June producer prices the markets had been expecting producer prices to rise by 0.8 tenths of a percent in June and that would have matched the 0.8 percent increase in the prior month I mean the dollar has been on a tear once again this week the dollar Index Rose from 107 to 108 and in fact the intra week high was 109.3 so the dollar is surging it's near a 20-year High against the Euro it's at a 24-year high against the Japanese Yen and it's because the dollar is so strong long that import prices are only up by 10.7 percent on the year because if the dollar wasn't so strong import prices would have got up a lot more than that and that would have spilled over into the CPI so but for the strong dollar we would have much higher inflation numbers uh than the ones we're dealing with now it's obviously working in Reverse in Europe and Japan whatever they're importing from the United States and obviously they don't import as much from us as we import from them but the question is why would the dollar be so strong internationally when it's so weak domestically because after all the US dollar is only legal tender here in America and so the International Exchange value of the dollar should reflect its purchasing power in America where it's legal tender in fact right if you go back to the 1970s that's the inflationary decade that we're now reliving only worse but if you go back to the 1970s the dollar was very weak the dollar lost about 70 percent of its value during that decade here in New Jersey 10 of the workforce is unemployed Across the Nation the average is eight percent also you have to remember that the balance of trade position of the United States during the 1970s was far superior to what it is today I mean in the 70s we were still running trade surpluses we still manufactured all sorts of stuff that the rest of the world needed dollars to buy and in fact during the 1970s the U.S was still the world's biggest creditor Nation now clearly that's better than zero but when you have inflation at nine percent that's still a negative real rate of six and a half percent so not an inflation hedge there if even after your yield if you could even get two and a half percent you're still losing six and a half percent of your money but that is not the dynamic that Europeans are looking at or the Japanese gold pays no yield in fact a lot of people have to pay to have their gold stored for them so right now the dollar is stealing Gold's luster I mean for a while it was Bitcoin that everybody wanted instead of gold but now it's the dollar that everybody wants instead of gold now eventually people are going to figure out that they don't want the dollar just like a lot of them figured out they don't want Bitcoin there is ultimately going to be a rush into gold as I've been saying gold will be the last Safe Haven standing because it's the only true Safe Haven and again going back to the decade of the 1970s which is the only real blueprint we have for what we're going to experience because this decade will be more highly inflationary than that one I mean clearly the recession is going to be much deeper when interest rates are higher and clearly the layoffs that have already begun are going to a massively accelerate as the recession gets worse in fact look at the industrial production numbers that came out for June that was an unexpected decline the consensus was for a 0.1 percent increase and instead we had a 0.2 percent decrease now the consumer is completely wrong inflation is going to get much worse the fact that the consumer doesn't understand that doesn't change that this is a disappointing report You know despite five interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year inflation remains stubbornly persistently highly but you have a lot of people who still believe falsely that inflation is a function of expectations that is the X expectation of inflation that causes inflation and a lot of this thinking is coming from government to try to shift the blame away from themselves to the public the idea is that if consumers think there's going to be inflation they will behave differently they will stock up on Goods now to front run price increases accelerating demand they will demand raises from their employers and it will help push up wages in a wage price spiral so a lot of this is expectations same with businesses if businesses expect inflation well they'll raise their prices in anticipation of the expectation of inflation and so the government tries to claim that this whole thing is psychological it becomes the self-perpetuating process that the government is just an innocent bystander that all the money they're printing is irrelevant now while the FED has been making some progress with its rate hikes albeit slow progress and obviously if we get this 100 basis point rate hike this month and they're at two and a half percent they will have made some considerable progress in building a distance between zero and where the FED funds rate is but one place they haven't made any progress at all really is in shrinking the balance sheet now Biden had done something by executive order to that effect but now it's going to be codified into law that the minimum wage for anybody Contracting with the US government is 15 an hour now this is also inflationary just like the 800 billion in deficit spending is inflationary it's either inflationary because the FED has to print the money or because there's crowding out if the FED doesn't buy the bonds somebody in the private sector does and if they're buying treasuries they're not loaning money to corporations and so capital investment is going to have to be crowded out in order to make room for the deficits to finance defense and that means higher prices we're producing less stuff we need to produce more stuff to help combat upward pressure on prices not less stuff but bigger government deficit spending crowds out private investment in fact not even the Republicans are willing to level with the American public about what it's going to take to fight inflation sure they're willing to blame it all on Biden but they're not willing to accept any of the responsibility or acknowledge any of the bitter tasting medicine that needs to be swallowed because we had huge deficit spending under Donald Trump too it's not that we just started doing it under Biden no I mean Biden's just doing more of it but both Democrats and Republicans have been deficit spending in fact you have a lot of Republicans who want this extra 800 billion million dollar defense spending Bill they're not saying oh we can't spend this money because it's inflationary no they don't care about the budget deficits they care about the defense contractors they want their political support they couldn't care about the budget deficits they couldn't care about inflation and that was true long before Biden became present people need to lose the wrong jobs before they can get the right jobs now how much time is going to transpire between losing the wrong job and getting the right job I don't know obviously the government can elongate that time by interfering with the economy and slowing down the process but to think that we can just go from where we are to where we need to be without a recession is Pie in the Sky Fantasy and for our laugher to try to claim that there's a solution here a painless solution where we magically avoid a recession but the only reason we're going to have a recession is because these idiots at the Federal Reserve don't know what they're doing they don't know what they're doing but we need a recession in order to fix all the mistakes that they helped the economy to create but what actually made it worse is not only did Art laugh or think that we could just let interest rates rise all the way up there and it's not going to have a problem not going to cause a recession but his other solution for the current inflation problem was tax cuts thank you
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