Apple's bigger issue continues to be its missing AI, says Wedbush's Dan Ives

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애플 주가 급등은 트럼프 행정부와의 관계 개선(관세 면제 기대, 대규모 미국 투자 약속)에 따른 일시적 부담 완화로 해석. 다만 Ives는 핵심 문제가 AI 부재라고 주장하고, 미국 내 아이폰 생산은 가능성이 낮다고 봄(3,500달러급 제품). 쿡의 1,000억 달러 추가 투자 약속은 기존 계획 포함 가능성이 커 실질 제조 투자 여부는 불투명.

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01. Here to discuss star Wedb Bush analyst Dan Ies and CNBC tech correspondent Steve Kovac. It's good to have you both with us. Dan, you first best day for the stock since May. Is this in fact the start of something bigger? Look, I mean it removes clearly a big overhang in terms of the view Apple and Cook were on the wrong side of Trump, right?

02. I mean they were on the bad side relative to over the last few months. So it's taken that that sort of lift here. you know, in terms of tariff exemptions, you you play nice in the sandbox. This is going to be a good press conference. And I think that removes that overhang. But I think the bigger issue continues to be the elephant in the room in terms of AI and that's missing.

03. And also everyone understands that they will not be producing smartphones, iPhones in the US. This is more about AI. It's a fairy tale that they'll produce smartphones uh in the US. So the relationship was bad as you suggest. So money can buy me love. It can in fact buy me love. Tim Cook just has to spend a little more money, up his commitment and now everything's just rosy again.

04. Look, I think the initial reaction is the big worry here is what was going to happen with India and obviously you talk about tariffs given what's happened in China. I mean right now it's moving goalpost for Apple. They're trying to figure out iPhone 17 where they actually produce that and it's clearly the first buddy.

05. It's been Jensen Avidia Cook's sort of been iced out. I mean, he's really been on the outside looking in. He needed to do something to get into the good graces of Trump. It's a first step, but where it gets tougher is the reality that this is more initial AI investments and some of those initiatives.

06. It's not going to be about iPhones. iPhones, in our opinion, will not ever be produced in the US because you be talking about $3,500 iPhones. Steve Kobach, you want to take us through the anthology of this relationship because it has had its ups and downs. We have wondered more recently whether these two men were on the outs.

07. Jensen Wong went to went to the Middle East. Tim Cook did not. Um he got called out in a sense during that visit if if you recall. Um but ma now maybe all is well when you write a big check. It could be. And by the way, this is not the first big check this year Tim Cook has written, including $1 million of his own personal money towards Donald Trump's inauguration event.

08. So there's, you know, there's plenty of money going around here, Scott. But we can even rewind to the first term because it was Tim Cook, Scott, who actually wrote the playbook with how to handle Trump. If you if we rewind all the way back to 2019 when he gave Trump that big tour of that factory in Texas that was already pre-existing and already making max uh just a few weeks later they got those tariff exemptions from the President Trump in his first term.

09. Now we're seeing this all play out again just an extra hundred billion dollars in commitment towards the United States and it appears at least as Megan Cassella just said uh that the the payoff here is those that relief in India which just got its tariffs doubled. I do want to dig into what the $600 billion dollars actually means, though.

10. This does not mean, Scott, that Apple's going to start building $600 billion worth of stuff and factories and so forth here in the United States. A lot of this spending was likely already baked in. They're counting just about everything they can count, saying they're supporting the American economy, whether that's paying app developers selling their software in the app store, or whether that means paying suppliers like Corning and Qualcomm uh to use their products within uh Apple devices.

11. So there's a lot of ways to measure this. We know the president wants to see stuff being built here. Uh I don't know if he's necessarily going to get that. So it's going to be really interesting to see. I'm expecting about hours time for more details out of Apple. How this hundred billion dollars is actually going to be spent.

12. Is it going to be spent on manufacturing or investing in the supply chain here in the United States? Or is it more of that nebulous stuff that we can't really track? We know what the president wants, but we also know that the president likes to be flattered by big headline numbers, and he got one today.

13. That might be enough of Cook the politician uh playing the game with Trump and getting what he needs out of the president this